Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Structural dissection of Ebola virus and its assembly determinants using cryo-electron tomography

Ebola virus is a highly pathogenic filovirus causing severe hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates. It assembles heterogenous, filamentous, enveloped virus particles containing a negative-sense, single-stranded RNA genome packaged within a helical nucleocapsid (NC). We have used cryo-electron microscopy and tomography to visualize Ebola virus particles, as well as Ebola virus-like particles, in three dimensions in a near-native state. The NC within the virion forms a left-handed helix with an inner nucleoprotein layer decorated with protruding arms composed of VP24 and VP35. A comparison with the closely related Marburg virus shows that the N-terminal region of nucleoprotein defines the inner diameter of the Ebola virus NC, whereas the RNA genome defines its length. Binding of the nucleoprotein to RNA can assemble a loosely coiled NC-like structure; the loose coil can be condensed by binding of the viral matrix protein VP40 to the C terminus of the nucleoprotein, and rigidified by binding of VP24 and VP35 to alternate copies of the nucleoprotein. Four proteins (NP, VP24, VP35, and VP40) are necessary and sufficient to mediate assembly of an NC with structure, symmetry, variability, and flexibility indistinguishable from that in Ebola virus particles released from infected cells. Together these data provide a structural and architectural description of Ebola virus and define the roles of viral proteins in its structure and assembly

Cryo-electron tomography of Marburg Virus particles and their morphogenesis within infected cells

Several major human pathogens, including the filoviruses, paramyxoviruses, and rhabdoviruses, package their single-stranded RNA genomes within helical nucleocapsids, which bud through the plasma membrane of the infected cell to release enveloped virions. The virions are often heterogeneous in shape, which makes it difficult to study their structure and assembly mechanisms. We have applied cryo-electron tomography and sub-tomogram averaging methods to derive structures of Marburg virus, a highly pathogenic filovirus, both after release and during assembly within infected cells. The data demonstrate the potential of cryo-electron tomography methods to derive detailed structural information for intermediate steps in biological pathways within intact cells. We describe the location and arrangement of the viral proteins within the virion. We show that the N-terminal domain of the nucleoprotein contains the minimal assembly determinants for a helical nucleocapsid with variable number of proteins per turn. Lobes protruding from alternate interfaces between each nucleoprotein are formed by the C-terminal domain of the nucleoprotein, together with viral proteins VP24 and VP35. Each nucleoprotein packages six RNA bases. The nucleocapsid interacts in an unusual, flexible "Velcro-like" manner with the viral matrix protein VP40. Determination of the structures of assembly intermediates showed that the nucleocapsid has a defined orientation during transport and budding. Together the data show striking architectural homology between the nucleocapsid helix of rhabdoviruses and filoviruses, but unexpected, fundamental differences in the mechanisms by which the nucleocapsids are then assembled together with matrix proteins and initiate membrane envelopment to release infectious virions, suggesting that the viruses have evolved different solutions to these conserved assembly steps.

Proteomic and bioinformatics tools to understand virulence mechanisms in Staphylococcus aureus

Staphylococcus aureus, one of the major pathogenic bacteria, is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. The disease burden of staphylococcal infections is significant, which is primarily attributed to its adaptability and resistance to environmental stresses. S. aureus has the ability to develop multiple resistances to antimicrobial agents. These high resistances make pathogenicity of S. aureus one of the most complex mechanisms to understand and manage. Proteomic and bioinformatics approaches show great potential in exploring microbial adaptation strategies, ability to cause disease by pathogenic bacteria and the development of diagnostic tools. A summary of the latest developments in the application of ‘omics’ technologies to understand resistance mechanisms in S. aureus and their future role in antistaphylococcal vaccine and/or drug discovery is given here.

Detection of banana bunchy top virus in virus-infected plants using polymerase chain reaction

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was developed for the detection of Banana bunchy top virus (BBTV) at maximum after 210 min and at minimum after 90 min using Pc-1 and Pc-2, respectively. PCR detection of BBTV in crude sap indicated that the freezing of banana tissue in liquid nitrogen (LN2) before extraction was more effective than using sand as the extraction technique. BBTV was also detected using PCR assay in 69 healthy and diseased plants using Na-PO4 buffer containing 1 % SDS. PCR detection of BBTV in nucleic acid extracts using seven different extraction buffers to adapt the use of PCR in routine detection in the field was studied. Results proved that BBTV was detected with high sensitivity in nucleic acid extracts more than in infectious sap. The results also suggested the common aetiology for the BBTV by the PCR reactions of BBTV in nucleic acid extracts from Australia, Burundi, Egypt, France, Gabon, Philippines and Taiwan. Results also proved a positive relation between the Egyptian-BBTV isolate and abaca bunchy top isolate from the Philippines, but there no relation was found with the Cucumber mosaic cucumovirus (CMV) isolates from Egypt and Philippines and Banana bract mosaic virus (BBMV) were found.

Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50 km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk.

An influenza virus inspired polymer system for the timed release of siRNA

Small interfering RNA silences specific genes by interfering with mRNA translation, and acts to modulate or inhibit specific biological pathways; a therapy that holds great promise in the cure of many diseases. However, the naked small interfering RNA is susceptible to degradation by plasma and tissue nucleases and due to its negative charge unable to cross the cell membrane. Here we report a new polymer carrier designed to mimic the influenza virus escape mechanism from the endosome, followed by a timed release of the small interfering RNA in the cytosol through a self-catalyzed polymer degradation process. Our polymer changes to a negatively charged and non-toxic polymer after the release of small interfering RNA, presenting potential for multiple repeat doses and long-term treatment of diseases.

Hepatitis C : a socio-cultural perspective on the effects of a new virus on a community’s health

Since the emergence of diagnostic medical tests in Australia in 1990, hepatitis C (HCV) has been shown to account for over 90 percent of all non-A non-B hepatitis, revealing it to be a widespread and major public health problem. The diagnosis of HCV involves a diverse range of issues for affected persons, introducing identity and lifestyle changes, which are commonly articulated through psychological concepts. In this article we argue that it is important to examine the broader social and cultural contexts that contribute to the experiences of persons affected by HCV. The thematic analysis of qualitative data from six individuals diagnosed with HCV is included to exemplify some of the processes that are involved in the changing identity of a person following a positive diagnosis. The theoretical framework for the interpretation of these processes is interpretive interactionism. In this research, we are attempting to extend the understanding of the effects of HCV diagnoses beyond internal, psychological processes by examining how these diagnoses transform some of the processes of self-formation and expression. The participants’ experiences indicate that there are at least four dimensions of self that were significant to their changing sense of self: relationship of self to others; the emotional self; self-stories and identity; and self-scrutiny and relationships. We conclude that a socio-cultural perspective contributes to the explanation of the transition period following a HCV-positive diagnosis and the redefinition of self towards a HCV status.

Recent emergence of dengue virus serotype 4 in French Polynesia results from multiple introductions from other south pacific islands

BACKGROUND: Infection by dengue virus (DENV) is a major public health concern in hundreds of tropical and subtropical countries. French Polynesia (FP) regularly experiences epidemics that initiate, or are consecutive to, DENV circulation in other South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). In January 2009, after a decade of serotype 1 (DENV-1) circulation, the first cases of DENV-4 infection were reported in FP. Two months later a new epidemic emerged, occurring about 20 years after the previous circulation of DENV-4 in FP. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-4 in FP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological data suggested that recent transmission of DENV-4 in FP started in the Leeward Islands and this serotype quickly displaced DENV-1 throughout FP. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) gene of 64 DENV-4 strains collected in FP in the 1980s and in 2009-2010, and some additional strains from other SPICs showed that DENV-4 strains from the SPICs were distributed into genotypes IIa and IIb. Recent FP strains were distributed into two clusters, each comprising viruses from other but distinct SPICs, suggesting that emergence of DENV-4 in FP in 2009 resulted from multiple introductions. Otherwise, we observed that almost all strains collected in the SPICs in the 1980s exhibit an amino acid (aa) substitution V287I within domain I of the E protein, and all recent South Pacific strains exhibit a T365I substitution within domain III. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirmed the cyclic re-emergence and displacement of DENV serotypes in FP. Otherwise, our results showed that specific aa substitutions on the E protein were present on all DENV-4 strains circulating in SPICs. These substitutions probably acquired and subsequently conserved could reflect a founder effect to be associated with epidemiological, geographical, eco-biological and social specificities in SPICs.

Phylodynamic analysis of the emergence and epidemiological impact of transmissible defective dengue viruses

Intra-host sequence data from RNA viruses have revealed the ubiquity of defective viruses in natural viral populations, sometimes at surprisingly high frequency. Although defective viruses have long been known to laboratory virologists, their relevance in clinical and epidemiological settings has not been established. The discovery of long-term transmission of a defective lineage of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) in Myanmar, first seen in 2001, raised important questions about the emergence of transmissible defective viruses and their role in viral epidemiology. By combining phylogenetic analyses and dynamical modelling, we investigate how evolutionary and ecological processes at the intra-host and inter-host scales shaped the emergence and spread of the defective DENV-1 lineage. We show that this lineage of defective viruses emerged between June 1998 and February 2001, and that the defective virus was transmitted primarily through co-transmission with the functional virus to uninfected individuals. We provide evidence that, surprisingly, this co-transmission route has a higher transmission potential than transmission of functional dengue viruses alone. Consequently, we predict that the defective lineage should increase overall incidence of dengue infection, which could account for the historically high dengue incidence reported in Myanmar in 2001-2002. Our results show the unappreciated potential for defective viruses to impact the epidemiology of human pathogens, possibly by modifying the virulence-transmissibility trade-off, or to emerge as circulating infections in their own right. They also demonstrate that interactions between viral variants, such as complementation, can open new pathways to viral emergence.

Antibiotic resistance and virulence traits in clinical and environmental Enterococcus faecalis and Enterococcus faecium isolates

This study compared virulence and antibiotic resistance traits in clinical and environmental E. faecalis and E. faecium isolates. E. faecalis isolates harboured a broader spectrum of virulence determinants compared to E. faecium isolates. The virulence traits Cyl-A, Cyl-B, Cyl-M, gel-E and esp were tested and environmental isolates predominantly harboured gel-E (80% of E. faecalis and 31.9% of E. faecium) whereas esp was more prevalent in clinical isolates (67.79% of E. faecalis and 70.37 % of E. faecium). E. faecalis and E. faecium isolated from water had different antibiotic resistance patterns compared to those isolated from clinical samples. Linozolid resistance was not observed in any isolates tested and vancomycin resistance was observed only in clinical isolates. Resistance to other antibiotics (tetracycline, gentamicin, ciprofloxacin and ampicillin) was detected in both clinical and water isolates. Clinical isolates were more resistant to all the antibiotics tested compared to water isolates. Multi-drug resistance was more prevalent in clinical isolates (71.18% of E. faecalis and 70.3 % of E. faecium) compared to water isolates (only 5.66 % E. faecium). tet L and tet M genes were predominantly identified in tetracycline-resistant isolates. All water and clinical isolates resistant to ciprofloxacin and ampicillin contained mutations in the gyrA, parC and pbp5 genes. A significant correlation was found between the presence of virulence determinants and antibiotic resistance in all the isolates tested in this study (p<0.05). The presence of antibiotic resistant enterococci, together with associated virulence traits, in surface recreational water could be a public health risk.

Ross River virus evolution : implications for vaccine development

Ross River virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes approximately 5000 cases of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia each year and has direct medical-associated costs of approximately US$15 million annually. While mosquito control programs are able, at best, to contain rather than prevent this disease, natural infection with Ross River virus confers lifelong protection against subsequent clinical infection. A killed-virus vaccine has been developed, which is in Phase III clinical trials. Analyses of intra-host genetic diversity and of long-term evolutionary changes in Ross River virus populations suggest that antigenic variation is unlikely to pose a threat to the efficacy of this vaccine.

Epstein-Barr virus-positive diffuse large B-cell lymphoma of the elderly expresses EBNA3A with conserved CD8+ T-cell epitopes

Post-transplantation lymphoproliferative disorders (PTLD) arise in the immunosuppressed and are frequently Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) associated. The most common PTLD histological sub-type is diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (EBV+DLBCL-PTLD). Restoration of EBV-specific T-cell immunity can induce EBV+DLBCL-PTLD regression. The most frequent B-cell lymphoma in the immunocompetent is also DLBCL. ‘EBV-positive DLBCL of the elderly’ (EBV+DLBCL) is a rare but well-recognized DLBCL entity that occurs in the overtly immunocompetent, that has an adverse outcome relative to EBV-negative DLBCL. Unlike PTLD (which is classified as viral latency III), literature suggests EBV+DLBCL is typically latency II, i.e. expression is limited to the immuno-subdominant EBNA1, LMP1 and LMP2 EBV-proteins. If correct, this would be a major impediment for T-cell immunotherapeutic strategies. Unexpectedly we observed EBV+DLBCL-PTLD and EBV+DLBCL both shared features consistent with type III EBV-latency, including expression of the immuno-dominant EBNA3A protein. Extensive analysis showed frequent polymorphisms in EBNA1 and LMP1 functionally defined CD8+ T-cell epitope encoding regions, whereas EBNA3A polymorphisms were very rare making this an attractive immunotherapy target. As with EBV+DLBCL-PTLD, the antigen presenting machinery within lymphomatous nodes was intact. EBV+DLBCL express EBNA3A suggesting it is amenable to immunotherapeutic strategies.

High seroprevalence of antibodies to varicella zoster virus in adult women in a tropical climate

OBJECTIVES To determine whether the seroprevalence of antibodies to varicella zoster virus (VZV) in adults is similar to that reported in tropical populations elsewhere. METHODS We measured the seroprevalence of VZV IgG antibodies, using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in women attending an antenatal clinic in an urban centre in tropical Australia. RESULTS The overall seroprevalence of VZV antibodies in 298 women was 92% (95% CI 88-95), with no difference between women who spent their childhoods in the tropics and colleagues. None of the overseas-born women was seronegative. CONCLUSION The seroprevalence of VZV antibodies in this tropical population in Australia is as high as that reported from temperate regions, suggesting that social and cultural factors and population mobility are more important determinants of age distribution of VZV immunity than tropical climate.