Effective communication during disasters

This paper describes a program of research examining emergency messaging during the response and early recovery phases of natural disasters. The objective of this suite of studies is to develop message construction frameworks and channels that maximise community compliance with instructional messaging. The research has adopted a multi-hazard approach and considers the impact of formal emergency messages, as well as informal messages (e.g., social media posts), on community compliance. In recent years, media reports have consistently demonstrated highly variable community compliance to instructional messaging during natural disasters. Footage of individuals watching a tsunami approaching from the beach or being over-run by floodwaters are disturbing and indicate the need for a clearer understanding of decision making under stress. This project’s multi-hazard approach considers the time lag between knowledge of the event and desired action, as well as how factors such as message fatigue, message ambiguity, and the interplay of messaging from multiple media sources are likely to play a role in an individual’s compliance with an emergency instruction. To examine effective messaging strategy, we conduct a critical analysis of the literature to develop a framework for community consultation and design experiments to test the potential for compliance improvement. Preliminary results indicate that there is, as yet, little published evidence on which to base decisions about emergency instructional messages to threatened communities. The research described here will contribute improvements in emergency instructional message compliance by generating an evidence-based framework that takes into account behavioural compliance theory, the psychology of decision making under stress, and multiple channels of communication including social media.

Effective emergency messaging during natural disasters: An application of message compliance theories

Study/Objective This research examines the types of emergency messages used in Australia during the response and early recovery phases of a natural disaster. The aim of the research is to develop theory-driven emergency messages that increase individual behavioural compliance during a disaster. Background There is growing evidence of non-compliant behaviour in Australia, such as refusing to evacuate and travelling through hazardous areas. This can result in personal injury, loss of life, and damage to (or loss of) property. Moreover, non-compliance can place emergency services personnel in life-threatening situations when trying to save non-compliant individuals. Drawing on message compliance research in psychology and sociology, a taxonomy of message types was developed to ascertain how emergency messaging can be improved to produce compliant behaviour. Method A review of message compliance literature was conducted to develop the taxonomy of message types previously found to achieve compliance. Seven categories were identified: direct-rational, manipulation, negative phrasing, positive phrasing, exchange appeals, normative appeals, and appeals to self. A content analysis was then conducted to assess the emergency messages evident in the Australian emergency management context. The existing messages were aligned with the literature to identify opportunities to improve emergency messaging. Results & Conclusion The results suggest there is an opportunity to improve the effectiveness of emergency messaging to increase compliance during the response and early recovery phases of a natural disaster. While some message types cannot legally or ethically be used in emergency communication (e.g. manipulative messaging), there is an opportunity to create more persuasive messages (e.g. appeals to self) that personalise the individual’s perception of risk, triggering them to comply with the message.

Numerical treatment of a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model

A two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is considered. A second-order spatial accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method for a two-dimensional variable-order fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is proposed. Stability and convergence of the semi-implicit alternating direct method are established. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis. These numerical techniques can be used to simulate a two-dimensional variable order fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo model in a rectangular domain. This type of model can be used to describe how electrical currents flow through the heart, controlling its contractions, and are used to ascertain the effects of certain drugs designed to treat arrhythmia.

The Step approach to Message Design and Testing (SatMDT): A conceptual framework to guide the development and evaluation of persuasive health messages

This paper provides an important and timely overview of a conceptual framework designed to assist with the development of message content, as well as the evaluation, of persuasive health messages. While an earlier version of this framework was presented in a prior publication by the authors in 2009, important refinements to the framework have seen it evolve in recent years, warranting the need for an updated review. This paper outlines the Step approach to Message Design and Testing (or SatMDT) in accordance with the theoretical evidence which underpins, as well as empirical evidence which demonstrates the relevance and feasibility, of each of the framework’s steps. The development and testing of the framework have thus far been based exclusively within the road safety advertising context; however, the view expressed herein is that the framework may have broader appeal and application to the health persuasion context.

Investigating the population structure of Queensland invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates in children: Using a modified multi-locus variable number of tandem repeat analysis and a novel minimum SNPs capsular typing method

This research investigated the use of DNA fingerprinting to characterise the bacteria Streptococcus pneumoniae or pneumococcus, and hence gain insight into the development of new vaccines or antibiotics. Different bacterial DNA fingerprinting methods were studied, and a novel method was developed and validated, which characterises different cell coatings that pneumococci produce. This method was used to study the epidemiology of pneumococci in Queensland before and after the introduction of the current pneumococcal vaccine. This study demonstrated that pneumococcal disease is highly prevalent in children under four years, that the bacteria can `switch' its cell coating to evade the vaccine, and that some DNA fingerprinting methods are more discriminatory than others. This has an impact on understanding which strains are more prone to cause invasive disease. Evidence of the excellent research findings have been published in high impact internationally refereed journals.

A new protest movement: Flexn your message through dance

Flexing, or Flex, is a street dance style that originated in Jamaica in the 1990s and grew up on the streets of Brooklyn, East New York. Performed to dancehall and reggae music, it has since evolved into a protest movement - an avenue for “flexors” to rally against social injustice, police brutality and racism.

Numerical analysis of a new space-time variable fractional order advection-dispersion equation

Many physical processes appear to exhibit fractional order behavior that may vary with time and/or space. The continuum of order in the fractional calculus allows the order of the fractional operator to be considered as a variable. In this paper, we consider a new space–time variable fractional order advection–dispersion equation on a finite domain. The equation is obtained from the standard advection–dispersion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by Coimbra’s variable fractional derivative of order α(x)∈(0,1]α(x)∈(0,1], and the first-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riemann–Liouville derivatives of order γ(x,t)∈(0,1]γ(x,t)∈(0,1] and β(x,t)∈(1,2]β(x,t)∈(1,2], respectively. We propose an implicit Euler approximation for the equation and investigate the stability and convergence of the approximation. Finally, numerical examples are provided to show that the implicit Euler approximation is computationally efficient.

Optimal sign tests for data from ranked set samples

This paper considers the one-sample sign test for data obtained from general ranked set sampling when the number of observations for each rank are not necessarily the same, and proposes a weighted sign test because observations with different ranks are not identically distributed. The optimal weight for each observation is distribution free and only depends on its associated rank. It is shown analytically that (1) the weighted version always improves the Pitman efficiency for all distributions; and (2) the optimal design is to select the median from each ranked set.

Variable Size Population NSGA-II: VPNSGA-II

Multi-objective optimization is an active field of research with broad applicability in aeronautics. This report details a variant of the original NSGA-II software aimed to improve the performances of such a widely used Genetic Algorithm in finding the optimal Pareto-front of a Multi-Objective optimization problem for the use of UAV and aircraft design and optimsaiton. Original NSGA-II works on a population of predetermined constant size and its computational cost to evaluate one generation is O(mn^2 ), being m the number of objective functions and n the population size. The basic idea encouraging this work is that of reduce the computational cost of the NSGA-II algorithm by making it work on a population of variable size, in order to obtain better convergence towards the Pareto-front in less time. In this work some test functions will be tested with both original NSGA-II and VPNSGA-II algorithms; each test will be timed in order to get a measure of the computational cost of each trial and the results will be compared.

Development and Simulation of a Variable Rate Controller for an Air search and Air Sampling Unmanned Aerial System

This report describes the development and simulation of a variable rate controller for a 6-degree of freedom nonlinear model. The variable rate simulation model represents an off the shelf autopilot. Flight experiment involves risks and can be expensive. Therefore a dynamic model to understand the performance characteristics of the UAS in mission simulation before actual flight test or to obtain parameters needed for the flight is important. The control and guidance is implemented in Simulink. The report tests the use of the model for air search and air sampling path planning. A GUI in which a set of mission scenarios, in which two experts (mission expert, i.e. air sampling or air search and an UAV expert) interact, is presented showing the benefits of the method.

Double-authentication-preventing signatures

Digital signatures are often used by trusted authorities to make unique bindings between a subject and a digital object; for example, certificate authorities certify a public key belongs to a domain name, and time-stamping authorities certify that a certain piece of information existed at a certain time. Traditional digital signature schemes however impose no uniqueness conditions, so a trusted authority could make multiple certifications for the same subject but different objects, be it intentionally, by accident, or following a (legal or illegal) coercion. We propose the notion of a double-authentication-preventing signature, in which a value to be signed is split into two parts: a subject and a message. If a signer ever signs two different messages for the same subject, enough information is revealed to allow anyone to compute valid signatures on behalf of the signer. This double-signature forgeability property discourages signers from misbehaving—a form of self-enforcement—and would give binding authorities like CAs some cryptographic arguments to resist legal coercion. We give a generic construction using a new type of trapdoor functions with extractability properties, which we show can be instantiated using the group of sign-agnostic quadratic residues modulo a Blum integer; we show an additional application of these new extractable trapdoor functions to standard digital signatures.

Analytical model of reactive transport processes with spatially variable coefficients

Analytical solutions of partial differential equation (PDE) models describing reactive transport phenomena in saturated porous media are often used as screening tools to provide insight into contaminant fate and transport processes. While many practical modelling scenarios involve spatially variable coefficients, such as spatially variable flow velocity, v(x), or spatially variable decay rate, k(x), most analytical models deal with constant coefficients. Here we present a framework for constructing exact solutions of PDE models of reactive transport. Our approach is relevant for advection-dominant problems, and is based on a regular perturbation technique. We present a description of the solution technique for a range of one-dimensional scenarios involving constant and variable coefficients, and we show that the solutions compare well with numerical approximations. Our general approach applies to a range of initial conditions and various forms of v(x) and k(x). Instead of simply documenting specific solutions for particular cases, we present a symbolic worksheet, as supplementary material, which enables the solution to be evaluated for different choices of the initial condition, v(x) and k(x). We also discuss how the technique generalizes to apply to models of coupled multispecies reactive transport as well as higher dimensional problems.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: Application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.

vSpeak: Edge detection based feature extraction for sign to text conversion

This paper presents 'vSpeak', the first initiative taken in Pakistan for ICT enabled conversion of dynamic Sign Urdu gestures into natural language sentences. To realize this, vSpeak has adopted a novel approach for feature extraction using edge detection and image compression which gives input to the Artificial Neural Network that recognizes the gesture. This technique caters for the blurred images as well. The training and testing is currently being performed on a dataset of 200 patterns of 20 words from Sign Urdu with target accuracy of 90% and above.