Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Household type and structure, time-use pattern, and trip-chaining behavior

In order to examine time allocation patterns within household-level trip-chaining, simultaneous doubly-censored Tobit models are applied to model time-use behavior within the context of household activity participation. Using the entire sample and a sub-sample of worker households from Tucson's Household Travel Survey, two sets of models are developed to better understand the phenomena of trip-chaining behavior among five types of households: single non-worker households, single worker households, couple non-worker households, couple one-worker households, and couple two-worker households. Durations of out-of-home subsistence, maintenance, and discretionary activities within trip chains are examined. Factors found to be associated with trip-chaining behavior include intra-household interactions with the household types and their structure and household head attributes.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

The comparison of international and local sustainable assessment tools of landscape design for housing estate developments : case of Bangkok Metropolitan Region, Thailand

Various countries have been introducing sustainable assessment tools for real estate design to produce integrated sustainability components not just for the building, but also the landscape component of the development. This paper aims to present the comparison between international and local assessment tools of landscape design for housing estate developments in Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), Thailand. The methodologies used are to review, then compare and identify discrepancy indicators among the tools. This paper will examine four international tools; LEED for Neighbourhood Development (LEED – ND) of United State of America (USA), EnviroDevelopment standards of Australia, Residential Landscape Sustainability of United Kingdom (UK) and Green Mark for Infrastructure of Singapore; and three BMR’s existing tools; Land Subdivision Act B.E. 2543, Environmental Impact Assessment Monitoring Awards (EIA-MA) and Thai’s Rating for Energy and Environmental Sustainability of New construction and major renovation (TREES-NC). The findings show that there are twenty two elements of three categories which are neighbourhood design, community management, and environmental condition. Moreover, only one element in neighbourhood designs different between the international and local tools. The sustainable assessment tools have existed in BMR but they are not complete in only one assessment tool. Thus, the development of new comprehensive assessment tool will be necessary in BMR; however, it should meet the specific environment and climate condition for housing estate development at BMR.

Information and communication technologies : catalysts for sustainable development

The concept of sustainable urban development has been pushed to the forefront of policy-making and politics as the world wakes up to the impacts of climate change and the effects of modern urban lifestyles. Today, sustainable development has become a very prominent element in the day-to-day debate on urban policy and the expression of that policy in urban planning and development decisions. As a result of this, during the last few years, sustainable development automation applications such as sustainable urban development decision support systems have become popular tools as they offer new opportunities for local governments to realise their sustainable development agendas. This chapter explores a range of issues associated with the application of information and communication technologies and decision support systems in the process of underpinning sustainable urban development. The chapter considers how information and communication technologies can be applied to enhance urban planning, raise environmental awareness, share decisions and improve public participation. It introduces and explores three web-based geographical information systems projects as best practice. These systems are developed as support tools to include public opinion in the urban planning and development processes, and to provide planners with comprehensive tools for the analysis of sustainable urban development variants in order to prepare the best plans for constructing sustainable urban communities and futures.

The urban littoral frontier : land reclamation in the history of human settlements

The urban waterfront may be regarded as the littoral frontier of human settlement. Typically, over the years, it advances, sometimes retreats, where terrestrial and aquatic processes interact and frequently contest this margin of occupation. Because most towns and cities are sited beside water bodies, many of these urban centers on or close to the sea, their physical expansion is constrained by the existence of aquatic areas in one or more directions from the core. It is usually much easier for new urban development to occur along or inland from the waterfront. Where other physical constraints, such as rugged hills or mountains, make expansion difficult or expensive, building at greater densities or construction on steep slopes is a common response. This kind of development, though technically feasible, is usually more expensive than construction on level or gently sloping land, however. Moreover, there are many reasons for developing along the shore or riverfront in preference to using sites further inland. The high cost of developing existing dry land that presents serious construction difficulties is one reason for creating new land from adjacent areas that are permanently or periodically under water. Another reason is the relatively high value of artificially created land close to the urban centre when compared with the value of existing developable space at a greater distance inland. The creation of space for development is not the only motivation for urban expansion into aquatic areas. Commonly, urban places on the margins of the sea, estuaries, rivers or great lakes are, or were once, ports where shipping played an important role in the economy. The demand for deep waterfronts to allow ships to berth and for adjacent space to accommodate various port facilities has encouraged the advance of the urban land area across marginal shallows in ports around the world. The space and locational demands of port related industry and commerce, too, have contributed to this process. Often closely related to these developments is the generation of waste, including domestic refuse, unwanted industrial by-products, site formation and demolition debris and harbor dredgings. From ancient times, the foreshore has been used as a disposal area for waste from nearby settlements, a practice that continues on a huge scale today. Land formed in this way has long been used for urban development, despite problems that can arise from the nature of the dumped material and the way in which it is deposited. Disposal of waste material is a major factor in the creation of new urban land. Pollution of the foreshore and other water margin wetlands in this way encouraged the idea that the reclamation of these areas may be desirable on public health grounds. With reference to examples from various parts of the world, the historical development of the urban littoral frontier and its effects on the morphology and character of towns and cities are illustrated and discussed. The threat of rising sea levels and the heritage value of many waterfront areas are other considerations that are addressed.

Chronic disease, geographic location and socioeconomic disadvantage as obstacles to equitable access to e-health

Despite recent public attention to e-health as a solution to rising healthcare costs and an ageingpopulation, there have been relatively few studies examining the geographical pattern of e-health usage. This paper argues for an equitable approach to e-health and attention to the way in which e-health initiatives can produce locational health inequalities, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. In this paper, we use a case study to demonstrate geographical variation in Internet accessibility, Internet status and prevalence of chronic diseases within a small district. There are signifi cant disparities in access to health information within socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. The most vulnerable people in these areas are likely to have limited availability of, or access to Internet healthcare resources. They are also more likely to have complex chronic diseases and, therefore, be in greatest need of these resources. This case study demonstrates the importance of an equitable approach to e-health information technologies and telecommunications infrastructure.

Sustainable transport infrastructure : perspectives for sustainable urban and transport development

Many economic, social and environmental sustainability problems associated with typical urban transportation systems have revealed the importance of three domains of action: vehicle, infrastructure and user. These domains need to be carefully reconsidered in search of a sustainable urban development path. Although intelligent transportation systems have contributed substantially to enhancing efficiency, safety and comfort of travel, questions related to users’ behaviours and preferences, which stimulate considerable environmental effects, still needed to be further examined. In this chapter, options for smart urban transportation infrastructure development and the technological means for achieving broader goals of sustainable communities and urban development are explored.

The QUT creative industries experience

This publication assembles essays by people who are leading voices and practitioners in the creative industries, writing from the perspectives of education, research and business development. The idea for the publication arose from a request in 2007 from key Chinese policy academics for information on what they called ‘The Queensland model’. Apart from a co-authored article published in Chinese in that year by three of the contributors to this publication, there was little assembled evidence of the model. The interest from China culminated in requests to visit and see the Queensland model first hand. Since 2007, there have been many visitors to the Creative Industries Precinct and the Kelvin Grove Urban Village. The tours have generally taken people to different organisational units within the larger complex. This publication follows this approach but also shows how the various organisational units are integrated.

Informational city

Many cities worldwide face the prospect of major transformation as the world moves towards a global information order. In this new era, urban economies are being radically altered by dynamic processes of economic and spatial restructuring. The result is the creation of ‘informational cities’ or its new and more popular name, ‘knowledge cities’. For the last two centuries, social production had been primarily understood and shaped by neo-classical economic thought that recognized only three factors of production: land, labor and capital. Knowledge, education, and intellectual capacity were secondary, if not incidental, factors. Human capital was assumed to be either embedded in labor or just one of numerous categories of capital. In the last decades, it has become apparent that knowledge is sufficiently important to deserve recognition as a fourth factor of production. Knowledge and information and the social and technological settings for their production and communication are now seen as keys to development and economic prosperity. The rise of knowledge-based opportunity has, in many cases, been accompanied by a concomitant decline in traditional industrial activity. The replacement of physical commodity production by more abstract forms of production (e.g. information, ideas, and knowledge) has, however paradoxically, reinforced the importance of central places and led to the formation of knowledge cities. Knowledge is produced, marketed and exchanged mainly in cities. Therefore, knowledge cities aim to assist decision-makers in making their cities compatible with the knowledge economy and thus able to compete with other cities. Knowledge cities enable their citizens to foster knowledge creation, knowledge exchange and innovation. They also encourage the continuous creation, sharing, evaluation, renewal and update of knowledge. To compete nationally and internationally, cities need knowledge infrastructures (e.g. universities, research and development institutes); a concentration of well-educated people; technological, mainly electronic, infrastructure; and connections to the global economy (e.g. international companies and finance institutions for trade and investment). Moreover, they must possess the people and things necessary for the production of knowledge and, as importantly, function as breeding grounds for talent and innovation. The economy of a knowledge city creates high value-added products using research, technology, and brainpower. Private and the public sectors value knowledge, spend money on its discovery and dissemination and, ultimately, harness it to create goods and services. Although many cities call themselves knowledge cities, currently, only a few cities around the world (e.g., Barcelona, Delft, Dublin, Montreal, Munich, and Stockholm) have earned that label. Many other cities aspire to the status of knowledge city through urban development programs that target knowledge-based urban development. Examples include Copenhagen, Dubai, Manchester, Melbourne, Monterrey, Singapore, and Shanghai. Knowledge-Based Urban Development To date, the development of most knowledge cities has proceeded organically as a dependent and derivative effect of global market forces. Urban and regional planning has responded slowly, and sometimes not at all, to the challenges and the opportunities of the knowledge city. That is changing, however. Knowledge-based urban development potentially brings both economic prosperity and a sustainable socio-spatial order. Its goal is to produce and circulate abstract work. The globalization of the world in the last decades of the twentieth century was a dialectical process. On one hand, as the tyranny of distance was eroded, economic networks of production and consumption were constituted at a global scale. At the same time, spatial proximity remained as important as ever, if not more so, for knowledge-based urban development. Mediated by information and communication technology, personal contact, and the medium of tacit knowledge, organizational and institutional interactions are still closely associated with spatial proximity. The clustering of knowledge production is essential for fostering innovation and wealth creation. The social benefits of knowledge-based urban development extend beyond aggregate economic growth. On the one hand is the possibility of a particularly resilient form of urban development secured in a network of connections anchored at local, national, and global coordinates. On the other hand, quality of place and life, defined by the level of public service (e.g. health and education) and by the conservation and development of the cultural, aesthetic and ecological values give cities their character and attract or repel the creative class of knowledge workers, is a prerequisite for successful knowledge-based urban development. The goal is a secure economy in a human setting: in short, smart growth or sustainable urban development.

Developing a knowledge-based urban development analysis framework : the case of multimedia super corridor, Malaysia

Purpose: In the global knowledge economy, investment in knowledge-intensive industries and information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructures are seen as significant factors in improving the overall socio-economic fabric of cities. Consequently knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) has become a new paradigm in urban planning and development, for increasing the welfare and competitiveness of cities and regions. The paper discusses the critical connections between KBUD strategies and knowledge-intensive industries and ICT infrastructures. In particular, it investigates the application of the knowledge-based urban development concept by discussing one of South East Asia’s large scale manifestations of KBUD; Malaysia’s Multimedia Super Corridor. ----- ----- Design/methodology/approach: The paper provides a review of the KBUD concept and develops a knowledge-based urban development assessment framework to provide a clearer understanding of development and evolution of KBUD manifestations. Subsequently the paper investigates the implementation of the KBUD concept within the Malaysian context, and particularly the Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC). ----- ----- Originality/value: The paper, with its KBUD assessment framework, scrutinises Malaysia’s experince; providing an overview of the MSC project and discussion of the case findings. The development and evolution of the MSC is viewed with regard to KBUD policy implementation, infrastructural implications, and the agencies involved in the development and management of the MSC. ----- ----- Practical implications: The emergence of the knowledge economy, together with the issues of globalisation and rapid urbanisation, have created an urgent need for urban planners to explore new ways of strategising planning and development that encompasses the needs and requirements of the knowledge economy and society. In light of the literature and MSC case findings, the paper provides generic recommendations, on the orchestration of knowledge-based urban development, for other cities and regions seeking to transform to the knowledge economy.

Preface [From The Third Knowledge City World Summit 2010 proceedings]

‘Knowledge’ is a resource, which relies on the past for a better future. In the 21st century, more than ever before, cities around the world depend on the knowledge of their citizens, their institutions and their firms and enterprises. The knowledge image, the human competence and the reputation of their public and private institutions and corporations profiles a city. It attracts investment, qualified labour and professionals, as well as students and researchers. And it creates local life spaces and professional milieus, which offer the quality of life to the citizens that are seeking to cope with the challenges of modern life in a competitive world. Integrating knowledge-based development in urban strategies and policies, beyond the provision of schools and locations for higher education, has become a new ambitious arena of city politics. Coming from theory to practice, and bringing together the manifold knowledge stakeholders in a city and preparing joint visions for the knowledge city is a new challenge for city managers, urban planners and leaders of the civic society . It requires visionary power, creativity, holistic thinking, the willingness to cooperate with all groups of the local civil society, and the capability to moderate communication processes to overcome conflicts and to develop joint action for a sustainable future.

Ubiquitous eco cities : infrastructure, technology and management

Efficient and effective urban management systems for Ubiquitous Eco Cities require having intelligent and integrated management mechanisms. This integration includes bringing together economic, socio-cultural and urban development with a well orchestrated, transparent and open decision-making system and necessary infrastructure and technologies. In Ubiquitous Eco Cities telecommunication technologies play an important role in monitoring and managing activities via wired and wireless networks. Particularly, technology convergence creates new ways in which information and telecommunication technologies are used and formed the backbone of urban management. The 21st Century is an era where information has converged, in which people are able to access a variety of services, including internet and location based services, through multi-functional devices and provides new opportunities in the management of Ubiquitous Eco Cities. This chapter discusses developments in telecommunication infrastructure and trends in convergence technologies and their implications on the management of Ubiquitous Eco Cities.