Estimation of cosmological parameters using adaptive importance sampling

We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to considerably reduce the wall-clock time required for sampling, along with providing other benefits. To assess the performance of the approach for cosmological problems, we use simulated and actual data consisting of CMB anisotropies, supernovae of type Ia, and weak cosmological lensing, and provide a comparison of results to those obtained using state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). For both types of data sets, we find comparable parameter estimates for PMC and MCMC, with the advantage of a significantly lower wall-clock time for PMC. In the case of WMAP5 data, for example, the wall-clock time scale reduces from days for MCMC to hours using PMC on a cluster of processors. Other benefits of the PMC approach, along with potential difficulties in using the approach, are analyzed and discussed.

Moving beyond the business plan in enterprise education

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to approach the debate surrounding the role of business plans in enterprise/entrepreneurship education from a different perspective; that of the student. The paper argues that much of the consternation within this stubborn debate derives from a lack of appreciation of the context actually occurring in the lives of our students. The paper aims to explore several arguments directly related to these contexts. Design/methodology/approach The approach is to build around a combining of cycles of reflective practice via the authors' iterative consultation with each other. The paper seeks to explore the world of the student via an enfolding of the literature, but ultimately we do not claim to have hidden our personal biases. Findings It is important to separate enterprise education (EE) from entrepreneurship education when discussing the role of the business plan. While the business plan has a place in the latter, it makes little sense for it to be a focal learning activity in the former. In addition, we see this outcome as a positive outcome for our field with little point in continuing on with what has become a fairly pointless debate. Practical implications: The paper concludes that once EE is viewed as being distinctly different from entrepreneurship education it is free to be considered with more precision what learning needs exist. Focusing on learning needs changes the direction of the discussion, with the business plan only up for discussion if it contributes a learning activity related to pre-determined learning outcomes. Originality/value The paper offers a constructive way forward from a debate that has been beset with extreme vested interests for too long.

The student business plan: Useful or not?

This article offers a critical discussion of the role of the business plan in current enterprise educational practice. In addition to reviewing recent work that considers the ‘for’ and ‘against’ arguments about the use of business plans in higher education, the authors suggest that the context of student learning is largely omitted from these discussions. As such, they contextualize the debate so that the purpose of the business plan can be better appreciated. They build on recent work that offers alternatives to the business plan – approaches directly focused on customer discovery and explicit testing of assumptions. In doing so, recent concerns about the value of business plans and, conversely, the views of those who argue in favour of the role of business plans in enterprise education, are noted. The article provides insights into emerging alternative practices in the field of enterprise education, practices based on students’ use of such education as a vehicle for skills and knowledge development and/or wealth creation. It is acknowledged that various biases are present in the current debate, including those of the present authors: whilst it is accepted that these biases are unlikely to disappear, the article contextualizes their origins.

A note on sampling chironomids for RNA-based studies of natural populations that retains critical morphological vouchers

The rapid uptake of transcriptomic approaches in freshwater ecology has seen a wealth of data produced concerning the ways in which organisms interact with their environment on a molecular level. Typically, such studies focus either at the community level and so don’t require species identifications, or on laboratory strains of known species identity or natural populations of large, easily identifiable taxa. For chironomids, impediments still exist for applying these technologies to natural populations because they are small-bodied and often require time-consuming secondary sorting of stream material and morphological voucher preparation to confirm species diagnosis. These procedures limit the ability to maintain RNA quantity and quality in such organisms because RNA degrades rapidly and gene expression can be altered rapidly in organisms; thereby limiting the inclusion of such taxa in transcriptomic studies. Here, we demonstrate that these limitations can be overcome and outline an optimised protocol for collecting, sorting and preserving chironomid larvae that enables retention of both morphological vouchers and RNA for subsequent transcriptomics purposes. By ensuring that sorting and voucher preparation are completed within <4 hours after collection and that samples are kept cold at all times, we successfully retained both RNA and morphological vouchers from all specimens. Although not prescriptive in specific methodology, we anticipate that this paper will assist in promoting transcriptomic investigations of the sublethal impact on chironomid gene expression of changes to aquatic environments.

Optimal adaptive sequential spatial sampling of soil using pair-copulas

A spatial sampling design that uses pair-copulas is presented that aims to reduce prediction uncertainty by selecting additional sampling locations based on both the spatial configuration of existing locations and the values of the observations at those locations. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of pair-copulas to estimate uncertainty at unsampled locations. Spatial pair-copulas are able to more accurately capture spatial dependence compared to other types of spatial copula models. Additionally, unlike traditional kriging variance, uncertainty estimates from the pair-copula account for influence from measurement values and not just the configuration of observations. This feature is beneficial, for example, for more accurate identification of soil contamination zones where high contamination measurements are located near measurements of varying contamination. The proposed design methodology is applied to a soil contamination example from the Swiss Jura region. A partial redesign of the original sampling configuration demonstrates the potential of the proposed methodology.

G20 tax reform plan should prevent another Lux leaks

The G20 Communique is good news on the international tax reform front. As part of the G20 commitment to boost economic resilience the Communique commits G20 nations to taking action to ensure fairness in the international tax system. This means they are looking at ways to ensure profits are taxed where economic activities deriving the profits are performed and where value is created.

Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes

Quantifying nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N(2)O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N(2)O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N(2)O fluxes within 10% of the best estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents, Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N(2)O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N(2)O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies.

Autonomous greenhouse gas sampling using multiple robotic boats

Accurately quantifying total greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. methane) from natural systems such as lakes, reservoirs and wetlands requires the spatial-temporal measurement of both diffusive and ebullitive (bubbling) emissions. Traditional, manual, measurement techniques provide only limited localised assessment of methane flux, often introducing significant errors when extrapolated to the whole-of-system. In this paper, we directly address these current sampling limitations and present a novel multiple robotic boat system configured to measure the spatiotemporal release of methane to atmosphere across inland waterways. The system, consisting of multiple networked Autonomous Surface Vehicles (ASVs) and capable of persistent operation, enables scientists to remotely evaluate the performance of sampling and modelling algorithms for real-world process quantification over extended periods of time. This paper provides an overview of the multi-robot sampling system including the vehicle and gas sampling unit design. Experimental results are shown demonstrating the system’s ability to autonomously navigate and implement an exploratory sampling algorithm to measure methane emissions on two inland reservoirs.

Performance based planning in Queensland : A case of unintended plan-making outcomes

Performance based planning (PBP) is purported to be a viable alternative to traditional zoning. The implementation of PBP ranges between pure approaches that rely on predetermined quantifiable performance standards to determine land use suitability, and hybrid approaches that rely on a mix of activity based zones in addition to prescriptive and subjective standards. Jurisdictions in the USA, Australia and New Zealand have attempted this type of land use regulation with varying degrees of success. Despite the adoption of PBP legislation in these jurisdictions, this paper argues that a lack of extensive evaluation means that PBP is not well understood and the purported advantages of this type of planning are rarely achieved in practice. Few empirical studies have attempted to examine how PBP has been implemented in practice. In Queensland, Australia, the Integrated Planning Act 1997 (IPA) operated as Queensland's principal planning legislation between March 1998 and December 2009. While the IPA did not explicitly use the term performance based planning, the Queensland's planning system is widely considered to be performance based in practice. Significantly, the IPA prevented Local Government from prohibiting development or use and the term zone was absent from the legislation. How plan-making would be advanced under the new planning regime was not clear, and as a consequence local governments produced a variety of different plan-making approaches to comply with the new legislative regime. In order to analyse this variation the research has developed a performance adoption spectrum to classify plans ranging between pure and hybrid perspectives of PBP. The spectrum compares how land use was regulated in seventeen IPA plans across Queensland. The research found that hybrid plans predominated, and that over time a greater reliance on risk adverse drafting approaches created a quasi-prohibition plan, the exact opposite of what was intended by the IPA. This paper concludes that the drafting of the IPA and absence of plan-making guidance contributed to lack of shared understanding about the intended direction of the new planning system and resulted in many administrative interpretations of the legislation. It was a planning direction that tried too hard to be different, and as a result created a perception of land use risk and uncertainty that caused a return to more prescriptive and inflexible plan-making methods.

Repeated random sampling in year 5

As an extension to an activity introducing Year 5 students to the practice of statistics, the software TinkerPlots made it possible to collect repeated random samples from a finite population to informally explore students’ capacity to begin reasoning with a distribution of sample statistics. This article provides background for the sampling process and reports on the success of students in making predictions for the population from the collection of simulated samples and in explaining their strategies. The activity provided an application of the numeracy skill of using percentages, the numerical summary of the data, rather than graphing data in the analysis of samples to make decisions on a statistical question. About 70% of students made what were considered at least moderately good predictions of the population percentages for five yes–no questions, and the correlation between predictions and explanations was 0.78.

A submission to the Tasmanian Department of Health and Human Services consultation “Healthy Tasmania Five Year Strategic Plan”

This submission will address a number of questions raised in section 5.2, “Potential Future Initiatives to target smoking”, of the Healthy Tasmania Five Year Strategic Plan – Community Consultation Draft. Each question has been answered within this submission. This submission will also address the possibility of legal challenges to these proposed changes, a pivotal consideration when implementing any tobacco control laws. This is due to the aggressive nature of the tobacco industry, as illustrated by their attempts to challenge plain packaging laws in the country and through international treaties. The evidence provided in my submission illustrates that prevention of initiation of smoking during adolescence has various benefits in terms of reduction of negative smoking behaviors in later life. I argue that increasing the minimum legal age of purchasing for tobacco to 21 will benefit both the levels of underage smoking as well as the age of onset of initiation of smoking, due to the greater difficulties that those who are underage would experience in accessing tobacco products. I will also address the question of whether the minimum smoking age should be increased to 25.