Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Philosophy, behaviour disorders, and the school

The recent exponential rise in the number of behaviour disorders has been the focus of a wide range of commentaries, ranging from the pedagogic and the administrative, to the sociological, and even the legal. This book will be the first to apply, in a systematic and thorough manner, the ideas of the foundational discipline of philosophy. A number of philosophical tools are applied here, tools arising through the medium of the traditional philosophical debates, such as those concerning governance, truth, logic, ethics, free-will, law and language. Each forms a separate chapter, but together they constitute a comprehensive, rigorous and original insight into what is now an important set of concerns for all those interested in the governance of children. The intention is threefold: first, to demonstrate the utility, accessibility and effectiveness of philosophical ideas within this important academic area. Philosophy does not have to be regarded an arcane and esoteric discipline, with only limited contemporary application, far from it. Second, the book offers a new set of approaches and ideas for both researchers and practitioners within education, a field is in danger of continually using the same ideas, to endlessly repeat the same conclusions. Third, the book offers a viable alternative to the dominant psychological model which increasingly employs pathology as its central rationale for conduct. The book would not only be of interest to mainstream educators, and to those students and academics interested in philosophy, and more specifically, the application of philosophical ideas to educational issues, it would also be an appropriate text for courses on education and difference, and due to the breadth of the philosophical issues addressed, courses on applied philosophy.

The politicization of youth crime in Scotland and the rise of the 'Burberry Court'

In 2003, the youth justice system in Scotland entered a new phase with the introduction of a pilot youth court. The processing of persistent 16 and 17 year old (and serious 15 year olds) represented a stark deviation from a ‘child centred’ and needs-oriented state apparatus for dealing with young offenders to one based on deeds and individual responsibility. This article, based on an evaluation funded by the Scottish Executive, is the first to provide a critical appraisal of this youth justice reform. It examines the views of the judiciary and young offenders and reveals that the pilot youth court in Scotland represents a punitive excursion that poses serious concerns for due process, human rights and net widening.

Why perform pro-social behaviours? Understanding the key sources of perceived value in preventative health services

In maintaining quality of life, preventative health is an important area in which the performance of pro-social behaviours provides benefits to individuals who perform them as well as society. The establishment of the Preventative Health Taskforce in Australia demonstrates the significance of preventative health and aims to provide governments and health providers with evidence-based advice on preventative health issues (Preventative Health Taskforce, 2009). As preventative health behaviours are voluntary, for consumers to sustain this behaviour there needs to be a value proposition (Dann, 2008; Kotler and Lee, 2008). Customer value has been shown to influence repeat behaviour (McDougall and Levesque, 2000), word-of-mouth (Hartline and Jones, 1999), and attitudes (Dick and Basu, 2008). However to date there is little research that investigates the source of value for preventative health services. This qualitative study explores and identifies three categories of sources that influence four dimensions of value – functional, emotional, social and altruistic (Holbrook 2006). A conceptual model containing five propositions outlining these relationships is presented. This study provides evidence-based research that reveals sources of value that influence individuals’ decisions to perform pro-social behaviours in the long-term through their use of preventative health services. This research uses BreastScreen Queensland (BSQ), a cancer screening service, as the service context.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy and neurocognitive dysfunction in obstructive sleep apnea before and after CPAP treatment

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To determine whether cerebral metabolite changes may underlie abnormalities of neurocognitive function and respiratory control in OSA. DESIGN: Observational, before and after CPAP treatment. SETTING: Two tertiary hospital research institutes. PARTICIPANTS: 30 untreated severe OSA patients, and 25 age-matched healthy controls, all males free of comorbidities, and all having had detailed structural brain analysis using voxel-based morphometry (VBM). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Single voxel bilateral hippocampal and brainstem, and multivoxel frontal metabolite concentrations were measured using magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in a high resolution (3T) scanner. Subjects also completed a battery of neurocognitive tests. Patients had repeat testing after 6 months of CPAP. There were significant differences at baseline in frontal N-acetylaspartate/choline (NAA/Cho) ratios (patients [mean (SD)] 4.56 [0.41], controls 4.92 [0.44], P = 0.001), and in hippocampal choline/creatine (Cho/Cr) ratios (0.38 [0.04] vs 0.41 [0.04], P = 0.006), (both ANCOVA, with age and premorbid IQ as covariates). No longitudinal changes were seen with treatment (n = 27, paired t tests), however the hippocampal differences were no longer significant at 6 months, and frontal NAA/Cr ratios were now also significantly different (patients 1.55 [0.13] vs control 1.65 [0.18] P = 0.01). No significant correlations were found between spectroscopy results and neurocognitive test results, but significant negative correlations were seen between arousal index and frontal NAA/Cho (r = -0.39, corrected P = 0.033) and between % total sleep time at SpO(2) < 90% and hippocampal Cho/Cr (r = -0.40, corrected P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: OSA patients have brain metabolite changes detected by MRS, suggestive of decreased frontal lobe neuronal viability and integrity, and decreased hippocampal membrane turnover. These regions have previously been shown to have no gross structural lesions using VBM. Little change was seen with treatment with CPAP for 6 months. No correlation of metabolite concentrations was seen with results on neurocognitive tests, but there were significant negative correlations with OSA severity as measured by severity of nocturnal hypoxemia. CITATION: O'Donoghue FJ; Wellard RM; Rochford PD; Dawson A; Barnes M; Ruehland WR; Jackson ML; Howard ME; Pierce RJ; Jackson GD. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy and neurocognitive dysfunction in obstructive sleep apnea before and after CPAP treatment.

Enforceable undertakings : a new mechanism for minimum labour standards’ enforcement

Regulatory commentators have identified the need for more responsive regulation to allow enforcement agencies to respond to different types and degrees of non-compliance. One tool considered to support responsive enforcement is the Enforceable Undertaking (EU). EUs are used extensively by Australian regulators in decisions that forego litigation in exchange for offenders promising to (amongst other things) correct behaviour and comply in the future. This arguably allows regulatory agencies greater flexibility in how they obtain compliance with regulations. EUs became an additional enforcement tool for the Fair Work Ombudsman (FWO) under the Fair Work Act 2009. This paper is a preliminary exploration of the comparative use of EUs by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and the FWO to assess their effectiveness for the minimum labour standards' environment.

Vulnerabilities in the courtroom

Book summary: In a constantly evolving context of performance management, accountability and risk assessment, police organisations and frontline police officers are required to pay careful attention to what has come to be known as ‘at risk people’, ‘vulnerable populations’ or ‘vulnerable people’. Vulnerable people have become a key focus of policy. Concurrently, there have been stronger demands on police, and a steep increase in police powers in relation to their interaction with vulnerable people. The premise of this protectionist and interventionist agenda is threefold: to protect the rights of vulnerable individuals proactively cater for their vulnerability within the justice system; and to secure police operations and protocols within strict guidelines. This collection unpacks ‘vulnerable people policing’ in theory and practice and guides the reader through the policing process as it is experienced by police officers, victims, offenders, witnesses and justice stakeholders. Each chapter features a single step of the policing process: from police recruit education through to custody, and the final transfer of vulnerable people to courts and sentencing. This edited collection provides analytical, theoretical and empirical insights on vulnerable people policing, and reflects on critical issues in a domain that is increasingly subject to speedy conversion from policy to practice, and heightened media and political scrutiny. It breaks down policing practices, operations and procedures that have vulnerable populations as a focus, bringing together original and innovative academic research and literature, practitioner experience and discussion of policy implications (from local and international perspectives). The particular nature of this collection highlights the multi-disciplinary nature of police work, sheds light on how specific, mandatory policies guide police officers steps in their interaction with vulnerable populations, and discusses the practicalities of police decision making at key points in this process.

Victoria's “Day in Prison Program” : an evaluation and critique

The use of “Day in Prison” programs to deter young adult offenders is a concept which originated in the United States and was replicated in Australia during the late 1970s. After almost a decade of uncertainty this model of ‘crime prevention’ re-emerged in Victoria with the introduction of a pilot “Day in Prison” program. This article traces the development and operation of the Victorian experience and provides evaluation research findings which conclude that coercive, intimidatory and degrading aversion techniques should not be utilised by the criminal justice system for the purposes of individual deterrence.

Alternatives to youth imprisonment : evaluating the Victorian youth attendance order

On 22 June 1988 the then Minister for Community Services Victoria, Race Matthews, officially launched the Youth Attendance Order (YAO), a high tariff alternative for young offenders aged between 15 and 18 years who were facing a term of detention. Throughout the order's gestation, much debate occurred about the impact it would have on rates of juvenile incarceration as well as about the potential ‘net widening’ effect it could have on less serious offenders. In May 1994 the National Centre For Socio-Legal Studies at La Trobe University submitted its report evaluating the Victorian Youth Attendance Order. This article presents some of the major findings of that report and examines the future options for this high tariff order in juvenile justice

Evaluation of the Airdrie Sheriff Youth Court Pilot

A pilot Youth Court was introduced at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Its objectives were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. An evaluation of the pilot commissioned by the Scottish Executive found that it appeared in many respects to be working well. It was a tightly run court that dealt with a heavy volume of business. With its fast track procedures and additional resources it was regarded as a model to be aspired to in all summary court business. Whether a dedicated Youth Court was required or whether procedural improvements would have been possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was, however, more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Court should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Court was intended to avoid the risk of net-widening and its consequences for young people.

Evaluation of the Hamilton Youth Court Pilot 2003-2005

Pilot Youth Courts were introduced at Hamilton Sheriff Court in June 2003 and at Airdrie Sheriff Court in June 2004. Although introduced as one of a number of measures aimed at responding more effectively to youth crime (including young people dealt with through the Children’s Hearings System), the Youth Courts were intended for young people who would otherwise have been dealt with in the adult Sheriff Summary Court. The objectives of the pilot Youth Courts were to: • reduce the frequency and seriousness of re-offending by 16 and 17 year old offenders, particularly persistent offenders (and some 15 year olds who are referred to the court); • promote the social inclusion, citizenship and personal responsibility of these young offenders while maximising their potential; • establish fast track procedures for those young persons appearing before the Youth Court; • enhance community safety, by reducing the harm caused to individual victims of crime and providing respite to those communities which are experiencing high levels of crime; and • test the viability and usefulness of a Youth Court using existing legislation and to demonstrate whether legislative and practical improvements might be appropriate. Evaluation of the Hamilton and Airdrie Sheriff Youth Court pilots suggested that they had been successful in meeting the objectives set for them by the Youth Court Feasibility Group. Both were tightly run courts that dealt with a heavy volume of business. The particular strengths of the Youth Court model over previous arrangements included the fast-tracking of young people to and through the court, the reduction in trials, the availability of a wider range of resources and services for young people and ongoing judicial review. The successful operation of the pilot Youth Courts was dependent upon effective teamwork among the relevant agencies and professionals concerned. Good information sharing, liaison and communication appeared to exist across agencies and the procedures that were in place to facilitate the sharing of information seemed to be working well. This was also facilitated by the presence of dedicated staff within agencies, resulting in clear channels of communication, and in the opportunity provided by the multi-agency Implementation Groups to identify and address operational issues on an ongoing basis. However, whether Youth Courts are required in Scotland or whether procedural improvement were possible in the absence of dedicated resources and personnel was more difficult to assess. Two issues in particular required further attention. First, consideration needed to be given to whether the Youth Courts should be more explicitly youth focused and what this might entail. Second, greater clarity was required regarding for whom the Youth Courts were intended. This suggested the need for further discussion of Youth Court targeting and its potential consequences among the various agencies concerned.

Perceptions of visitor relationship marketing opportunities by destination marketers : an importance-performance analysis

Customer relationship marketing (CRM) initiatives are increasingly being adopted by businesses in the attempt to enhance brand loyalty and stimulate repeat purchases. The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which destination marketing organisations (DMOs) around the world have developed a visitor relationship marketing (VRM) orientation. The proposition underpinning the study is that maintaining meaningful dialogue with previous visitors in some markets would represent a more efficient use of resources than above the line advertising to attract new visitors. Importance-performance analysis was utilised to measure destination marketers’ perceptions of the efficacy of CRM initiatives, and then rate their own organisation’s performance across the same range of initiatives. A key finding was that mean importance was higher than perceived performance for every item. While the small sample limits generalisability, in general there are appears to be a lack of strategic intent by DMOs to invest in VRM.

When There's Love

This work is an installation featuring three video projections, music and mirror balls. The three projections fill the walls with scrolling text borrowed from love song lyrics. Headphones in the gallery space allow you to hear a male voice sing the same words to an impromptu tune. Mirror balls send fragments of light spinning around the room while The Righteous Brothers’ Unchained Melody plays on repeat. This work emphasizes fragmentary, repetitious and spatio-temporal experiences of language in order to question the symbolic conventions of romance. By exaggerating and mixing hackneyed symbolic elements, this work extends on some of Nicolas Bourriaud’s theoretical insights into the creative and critical strategies of ‘postproduction’. In particular, it toys with the intersections between popular culture and inter-subjective experiences.

Successes and challenges in managing illegal road user behaviours

- The role of illegal behaviours in road crashes - Three case studies in managing illegal road user behaviour: an Australian perspective - Current and emerging challenges, including the need to: -reduce punishment avoidance -identify and manage recidivist offenders -address community attitudes and perceptions - Countermeasure implications

The effectiveness of traffic policing in reducing traffic crashes

Many governments throughout the world rely heavily on traffic law enforcement programs to modify driver behaviour and enhance road safety. There are two related functions of traffic law enforcement, apprehension and deterrence, and these are achieved through three processes: the establishment of traffic laws, the policing of those laws, and the application of penalties and sanctions to offenders. Traffic policing programs can vary by visibility (overt or covert) and deployment methods (scheduled and non-scheduled), while sanctions can serve to constrain, deter or reform offending behaviour. This chapter will review the effectiveness of traffic law enforcement strategies from the perspective of a range of high-risk, illegal driving behaviours including drink/drug driving, speeding, seat belt use and red light running. Additionally, this chapter discusses how traffic police are increasingly using technology to enforce traffic laws and thus reduce crashes. The chapter concludes that effective traffic policing involves a range of both overt and covert operations and includes a mix of automatic and more traditional manual enforcement methods. It is important to increase both the perceived and actual risk of detection by ensuring that traffic law enforcement operations are sufficiently intensive, unpredictable in nature and conducted as widely as possible across the road network. A key means of maintaining the unpredictability of operations is through the random deployment of enforcement and/or the random checking of drivers. The impact of traffic enforcement is also heightened when it is supported by public education campaigns. In the future, technological improvements will allow the use of more innovative enforcement strategies. Finally, further research is needed to continue the development of traffic policing approaches and address emerging road safety issues.