Estimation of parameters for macroparasite population evolution using approximate Bayesian computation

We estimate the parameters of a stochastic process model for a macroparasite population within a host using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). The immunity of the host is an unobserved model variable and only mature macroparasites at sacrifice of the host are counted. With very limited data, process rates are inferred reasonably precisely. Modeling involves a three variable Markov process for which the observed data likelihood is computationally intractable. ABC methods are particularly useful when the likelihood is analytically or computationally intractable. The ABC algorithm we present is based on sequential Monte Carlo, is adaptive in nature, and overcomes some drawbacks of previous approaches to ABC. The algorithm is validated on a test example involving simulated data from an autologistic model before being used to infer parameters of the Markov process model for experimental data. The fitted model explains the observed extra-binomial variation in terms of a zero-one immunity variable, which has a short-lived presence in the host.

The applicability of Bowen's family theory to the Malay population

The changes of economic status in Malaysia have lead to many psychosocial problems especially among the young people. Counselling and psychotherapy have been seen as one of the solutions that are practiced in Western Culture. Most counselling theorists believe that their theory is universal however there is limited research to prove it. This paper will describe an ongoing study conducted in Malaysia about the applicability of one Western counselling Theory, Bowen’s family theory the Differentiation of self levels in the family allow a person to both leave the family’s boundaries in search of uniqueness and continually return to the family in order to further establish a sense of belonging. In addition Bowen believed that this comprised of four measures: Differentiation of Self (DSI), Family Inventory of Live Event (ILE), Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS) and Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC). Preliminary findings are discussed and the implication in enhancing the quality of teaching family counselling in universities explored.

Marital loss, mental health and the role of perceived social support : findings from six waves of an Australian population based panel study

Objectives: To investigate the impact of transitions out of marriage (separation, widowhood) on the self reported mental health of men and women, and examine whether perceptions of social support play an intervening role. ---------- Methods: The analysis used six waves (2001–06) of an Australian population based panel study, with an analytical sample of 3017 men and 3225 women. Mental health was measured using the MHI-5 scale scored 0–100 (α=0.97), with a higher score indicating better mental health. Perceptions of social support were measured using a 10-item scale ranging from 10 to 70 (α=0.79), with a higher score indicating higher perceived social support. A linear mixed model for longitudinal data was used, with lags for marital status, mental health and social support. ---------- Results: After adjustment for social characteristics there was a decline in mental health for men who separated (−5.79 points) or widowed (−7.63 points), compared to men who remained married. Similar declines in mental health were found for women who separated (−6.65 points) or became widowed (−9.28 points). The inclusion of perceived social support in the models suggested a small mediation effect of social support for mental health with marital loss. Interactions between perceived social support and marital transitions showed a strong moderating effect for men who became widowed. No significant interactions were found for women. ---------- Conclusion: Marital loss significantly decreased mental health. Increasing, or maintaining, high levels of social support has the potential to improve widowed men's mental health immediately after the death of their spouse.

The association between MC1R genotype and BRAF mutation status in cutaneous melanoma : findings from an Australian population

There is increasing epidemiological and molecular evidence that cutaneous melanomas arise through multiple causal pathways. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between germline and somatic mutations in a population-based series of melanoma patients to reshape and refine the divergent pathway model for melanoma. Melanomas collected from 123 Australian patients were analyzed for melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) variants and mutations in the BRAF and NRAS genes. Detailed phenotypic and sun exposure data were systematically collected from all patients. We found that BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly more likely from younger patients and those with high nevus counts, and were more likely in melanomas with adjacent neval remnants. Conversely, BRAF-mutant melanomas were significantly less likely in people with high levels of lifetime sun exposure. We observed no association between germline MC1R status and somatic BRAF mutations in melanomas from this population. BRAF-mutant melanomas have different origins from other cutaneous melanomas. These data support the divergent pathways hypothesis for melanoma, which may require a reappraisal of targeted cancer prevention activities.

Persistent ocean monitoring with underwater gliders : towards accurate reconstruction of dynamic ocean processes

Ocean processes are dynamic and complex events that occur on multiple different spatial and temporal scales. To obtain a synoptic view of such events, ocean scientists focus on the collection of long-term time series data sets. Generally, these time series measurements are continually provided in real or near-real time by fixed sensors, e.g., buoys and moorings. In recent years, an increase in the utilization of mobile sensor platforms, e.g., Autonomous Underwater Vehicles, has been seen to enable dynamic acquisition of time series data sets. However, these mobile assets are not utilized to their full capabilities, generally only performing repeated transects or user-defined patrolling loops. Here, we provide an extension to repeated patrolling of a designated area. Our algorithms provide the ability to adapt a standard mission to increase information gain in areas of greater scientific interest. By implementing a velocity control optimization along the predefined path, we are able to increase or decrease spatiotemporal sampling resolution to satisfy the sampling requirements necessary to properly resolve an oceanic phenomenon. We present a path planning algorithm that defines a sampling path, which is optimized for repeatability. This is followed by the derivation of a velocity controller that defines how the vehicle traverses the given path. The application of these tools is motivated by an ongoing research effort to understand the oceanic region off the coast of Los Angeles, California. The computed paths are implemented with the computed velocities onto autonomous vehicles for data collection during sea trials. Results from this data collection are presented and compared for analysis of the proposed technique.

Multi-objective four-dimensional vehicle motion planning in large dynamic environments

This paper presents Multi-Step A* (MSA*), a search algorithm based on A* for multi-objective 4D vehicle motion planning (three spatial and one time dimension). The research is principally motivated by the need for offline and online motion planning for autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). For UAVs operating in large, dynamic and uncertain 4D environments, the motion plan consists of a sequence of connected linear tracks (or trajectory segments). The track angle and velocity are important parameters that are often restricted by assumptions and grid geometry in conventional motion planners. Many existing planners also fail to incorporate multiple decision criteria and constraints such as wind, fuel, dynamic obstacles and the rules of the air. It is shown that MSA* finds a cost optimal solution using variable length, angle and velocity trajectory segments. These segments are approximated with a grid based cell sequence that provides an inherent tolerance to uncertainty. Computational efficiency is achieved by using variable successor operators to create a multi-resolution, memory efficient lattice sampling structure. Simulation studies on the UAV flight planning problem show that MSA* meets the time constraints of online replanning and finds paths of equivalent cost but in a quarter of the time (on average) of vector neighbourhood based A*.

Altering heavy vehicle air suspension dynamic forces by modifying air lines

An experimental programme in 2007 used three air suspended heavy vehicles travelling over typical urban roads to determine whether dynamic axle-to-chassis forces could be reduced by using larger-than-standard diameter longitudinal air lines. This paper presents methodology, interim analysis and partial results from that programme. Alterations to dynamic measures derived from axle-to-chassis forces for the case of standard-sized longitudinal air lines vs. the test case where larger longitudinal air lines were fitted are presented and discussed. This leads to conclusions regarding the possibility that dynamic loadings between heavy vehicle suspensions and chassis may be reduced by fitting larger longitudinal air lines to air-suspended heavy vehicles. Reductions in the shock and vibration loads to heavy vehicle suspension components could lead to lighter and more economical chassis and suspensions. This could therefore lead to reduced tare and increased payloads without an increase in gross vehicle mass.

Polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) concentrations decrease with age : analysis of pooled human blood serum in the Australian population

Introduction Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are considered to be a cost effective and efficient way to reduce the possibility of product ignition and inhibit the spread of fire, thereby limiting harm caused by fires. PBDEs are incorporated into a wide variety of manufactured products and are now considered an ubiquitous contaminant found worldwide in biological and environmental samples1 . In comparison to “traditional” persistent organic pollutants (POPs), the exposure modes of PBDEs in humans are less well defined, although dietary sources, inhalation (air/particulate matter) and dust ingestion have been reported 2-4. Limited investigations of population specific factors such as age or gender and PBDE concentrations report: no conclusive correlation by age in adults; higher concentrations in children ; similar concentrations in maternal and cord blood; and no gender differences. After preliminary findings of higher PBDE concentrations in children than in adults in Australia11 we sought to investigate at what age the PBDE concentrations peaked in an effort to focus exposure studies. This investigation involved the collection of blood samples from young age groups and the development of a simple model to predict PBDE concentrations by age in Australia.

Alexithymia, craving and attachment in a heavy drinking population

Up to fifty per cent of individuals with Alcohol use disorders (AUD) also have alexithymia a personality construct hypothesized to be related to attachment difficulties. The relationship between alexithymia, craving, anxious attachment and alcohol-dependence severity was examined in 254 patients participating in a Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) program for alcohol-dependence. Participants completed the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), the Obsessive Compulsive Drinking Scale (OCDS), the Revised Adult Attachment Anxiety Subscale (RAAS-Anxiety) and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT). MANOVA indicated that individuals with alexithymia reported significantly higher levels of total OCDS, obsessive thoughts about alcohol, and compulsive drinking urges and behavior, compared to the non-alexithymic group. Regression analyses found that anxious attachment partially mediated the relationship between alexithymia and craving. Anxious attachment may be a potential treatment target to reduce alcohol consumption in those with alcohol-dependence and alexithymia. Research Highlights ► There were significant relationships of alexithymia, craving and anxious attachment. ► Alexithymic alcoholics reported higher levels of craving and alcoholism severity. ► Anxious attachment partially mediated the relationship of alexithymia and craving.

Plantar enthesopathy : thickening of the enthesis is correlated with energy dissipation of the plantar fat pad during walking

Background: The enthesis of the plantar fascia is thought to play an important role in stress dissipation. However, the potential link between entheseal thickening characteristic of enthesopathy and the stress-dissipating properties of the intervening plantar fat pad have not been investigated. Purpose: This study was conducted to identify whether plantar fat pad mechanics explain variance in the thickness of the fascial enthesis in individuals with and without plantar enthesopathy. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: The study population consisted of 9 patients with unilateral plantar enthesopathy and 9 asymptomatic, individually matched controls. The thickness of the enthesis of the symptomatic, asymptomatic, and a matched control limb was acquired using high-resolution ultrasound. The compressive strain of the plantar fat pad during walking was estimated from dynamic lateral radiographs acquired with a multifunction fluoroscopy unit. Peak compressive stress was simultaneously acquired via a pressure platform. Principal viscoelastic parameters were estimated from subsequent stress-strain curves. Results: The symptomatic fascial enthesis (6.7 ± 2.0 mm) was significantly thicker than the asymptomatic enthesis (4.2 ± 0.4 mm), which in turn was thicker than the enthesis (3.3 ± 0.4 mm) of control limbs (P < .05). There was no significant difference in the mean thickness, peak stress, peak strain, or secant modulus of the plantar fat pad between limbs. However, the energy dissipated by the fat pad during loading and unloading was significantly lower in the symptomatic limb (0.55 ± 0.17) when compared with asymptomatic (0.69 ± 0.13) and control (0.70 ± 0.09) limbs (P < .05). The sonographic thickness of the enthesis was correlated with the energy dissipation ratio of the plantar fat pad (r = .72, P < .05), but only in the symptomatic limb. Conclusion: The energy-dissipating properties of the plantar fat pad are associated with the sonograpic appearance of the enthesis in symptomatic limbs, providing a previously unidentified link between the mechanical behavior of the plantar fat pad and enthesopathy.

Queensland Government’s people’s question time : the challenges and opportunities of population growth in Queensland

As AITPM National President, I was invited by Queensland’s Premier, Hon. Anna Bligh MP, as an audience guest to People’s Question Time on Wednesday 24 March 2010, which focused on ‘The Challenges and Opportunities of Population Growth in Queensland’. On the panel were: Premier and Minister for the Arts, Anna Bligh; Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability, Kate Jones; Minister for Infrastructure and Planning, Stirling Hinchliffe; Michael Rayner – Growth Management Summit Advisory Panel, Principal Director, Cox Rayner Architects; and Greg Hallam – Executive Director, Local Government Association of Queensland. The moderator for this session was Law Academic Erin O’Brien, of Queensland University of Technology.

Assembling dynamic repertoires of literate practices : teaching that makes a difference

This chapter considers how teachers can make a difference to the kinds of literacy young people take up. Increasingly, researchers and policy-makers see literacy as an ensemble of socio-cultural situated practices rather than as a unitary skill. Accordingly, the differences in what young people come to do with literacy, in and out of school, confront us more directly. If literacy development involves assembling dynamic repertoires of practices, it is crucial to consider what different groups of children growing up and going to school in different places have access to and make investments in over time; the kinds of literate communities from which some are excluded or included; and how educators make a difference to the kinds of literate trajectories and identities young people put together.

Investigation into the introduction of clonal strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa to the cystic fibrosis population by consumption of raw salad vegetables

Most salad vegetables are eaten fresh by consumers. However, raw vegetables may pose a risk of transmitting opportunistic bacteria to immunocompromised people, including cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. In particular, CF patients are vulnerable to chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung infections and this organism is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in this group. Clonal variants of P. aeruginosa have been identified as emerging threats to people afflicted with CF; however it has not yet been proven from where these clones originate or how they are transmitted. Due to the organisms‟ aquatic environmental niche, it was hypothesised that vegetables may be a source of these clones. To test this hypothesis, lettuce, tomatoes, mushrooms and bean sprout packages (n = 150) were analysed from a green grocer, supermarket and farmers‟ market within the Brisbane region, availability permitting. The internal and external surfaces of the vegetables were separately analysed for the presence of clonal strains of P. aeruginosa using washings and homogenisation techniques, respectively. This separation was in an attempt to establish which surface was contaminated, so that recommendations could be made to decrease or eliminate P. aeruginosa from these foods prior to consumption. Soil and water samples (n = 17) from local farms were also analysed for the presence of P. aeruginosa. Presumptive identification of isolates recovered from these environmental samples was made based on growth on Cetrimide agar at 42°C, presence of the cytochrome-oxidase enzyme and inability to ferment lactose. P. aeruginosa duplex real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (PAduplex) was performed on all bacterial isolates presumptively identified as P. aeruginosa. Enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus strain typing PCR (ERIC-PCR) was subsequently performed on confirmed bacterial isolates. Although 72 P. aeruginosa were isolated, none of these proved to be clonal strains. The significance of these findings is that vegetables may pose a risk of transmitting sporadic strains of P. aeruginosa to people afflicted with CF and possibly, other immunocompromised people.

Stability boundary analysis of the dynamic voltage restorer in weak systems with dynamic loads

In this contribution, a stability analysis for a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) connected to a weak ac system containing a dynamic load is presented using continuation techniques and bifurcation theory. The system dynamics are explored through the continuation of periodic solutions of the associated dynamic equations. The switching process in the DVR converter is taken into account to trace the stability regions through a suitable mathematical representation of the DVR converter. The stability regions in the Thevenin equivalent plane are computed. In addition, the stability regions in the control gains space, as well as the contour lines for different Floquet multipliers, are computed. Besides, the DVR converter model employed in this contribution avoids the necessity of developing very complicated iterative map approaches as in the conventional bifurcation analysis of converters. The continuation method and the DVR model can take into account dynamics and nonlinear loads and any network topology since the analysis is carried out directly from the state space equations. The bifurcation approach is shown to be both computationally efficient and robust, since it eliminates the need for numerically critical and long-lasting transient simulations.