Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

On the provable security of an efficient RSA-based pseudorandom generator

Pseudorandom Generators (PRGs) based on the RSA inversion (one-wayness) problem have been extensively studied in the literature over the last 25 years. These generators have the attractive feature of provable pseudorandomness security assuming the hardness of the RSA inversion problem. However, despite extensive study, the most efficient provably secure RSA-based generators output asymptotically only at most O(logn) bits per multiply modulo an RSA modulus of bitlength n, and hence are too slow to be used in many practical applications. To bring theory closer to practice, we present a simple modification to the proof of security by Fischlin and Schnorr of an RSA-based PRG, which shows that one can obtain an RSA-based PRG which outputs Ω(n) bits per multiply and has provable pseudorandomness security assuming the hardness of a well-studied variant of the RSA inversion problem, where a constant fraction of the plaintext bits are given. Our result gives a positive answer to an open question posed by Gennaro (J. of Cryptology, 2005) regarding finding a PRG beating the rate O(logn) bits per multiply at the cost of a reasonable assumption on RSA inversion.

An experimental based assessment of the deviation of the bearing characteristic frequencies

Slippage in the contact roller-races has always played a central role in the field of diagnostics of rolling element bearings. Due to this phenomenon, vibrations triggered by a localized damage are not strictly periodic and therefore not detectable by means of common spectral functions as power spectral density or discrete Fourier transform. Due to the strong second order cyclostationary component, characterizing these signals, techniques such as cyclic coherence, its integrated form and square envelope spectrum have proven to be effective in a wide range of applications. An expert user can easily identify a damage and its location within the bearing components by looking for particular patterns of peaks in the output of the selected cyclostationary tool. These peaks will be found in the neighborhood of specific frequencies, that can be calculated in advance as functions of the geometrical features of the bearing itself. Unfortunately the non-periodicity of the vibration signal is not the only consequence of the slippage: often it also involves a displacement of the damage characteristic peaks from the theoretically expected frequencies. This issue becomes particularly important in the attempt to develop highly automated algorithms for bearing damage recognition, and, in order to correctly set thresholds and tolerances, a quantitative description of the magnitude of the above mentioned deviations is needed. This paper is aimed at identifying the dependency of the deviations on the different operating conditions. This has been possible thanks to an extended experimental activity performed on a full scale bearing test rig, able to reproduce realistically the operating and environmental conditions typical of an industrial high power electric motor and gearbox. The importance of load will be investigated in detail for different bearing damages. Finally some guidelines on how to cope with such deviations will be given, accordingly to the expertise obtained in the experimental activity.

Enhanced stochastic mobility prediction with multi-output Gaussian processes

Outdoor robots such as planetary rovers must be able to navigate safely and reliably in order to successfully perform missions in remote or hostile environments. Mobility prediction is critical to achieving this goal due to the inherent control uncertainty faced by robots traversing natural terrain. We propose a novel algorithm for stochastic mobility prediction based on multi-output Gaussian process regression. Our algorithm considers the correlation between heading and distance uncertainty and provides a predictive model that can easily be exploited by motion planning algorithms. We evaluate our method experimentally and report results from over 30 trials in a Mars-analogue environment that demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and illustrate the importance of mobility prediction in navigating challenging terrain.

The effect of ß-alanine on buffering capacity and exercise performance during and following high-intensity exercise in healthy males

Introduction Intense exercise induced acidosis occurs from the accumulation of hydrogen ions as by-products of anaerobic metabolism. Oral ingestion of ß-alanine, a limiting precursor of the intracellular physiochemical buffer carnosine in skeletal muscle, may counteract any detrimental effect of acidosis and benefit performance. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of ß-alanine as an ergogenic aid during high intensity exercise performance in healthy males. Methods Five males ingested either ß-alanine (BAl) (4.8 g.d-1 for 4wk, then 6.4 g.d-1 for 2wk) or placebo (Pl) (CaCO3) in a crossover design with 6 wk washout between. Following supplementation, participants performed two different intense exercise protocols over consecutive days. On the first day a repeated sprint ability (RSA) test of 5 x 6s, with 24s rest periods, was performed. On the second day a cycling capacity test measuring the time to exhaustion (TTE) was performed at 110% of their max workload achieved in a pre supplementation max test (CCT110%). Non-invasive quantification of carnosine, prior to, and following each supplementation, with magnetic resonance spectrometry was performed in the soleus and gastrocnemius. Time to fatigue (CCT110%), peak and mean power (RSA), blood pH, and plasma lactate were measured. Results Muscle carnosine concentration was not different prior to ß-alanine supplementation and increased 18% in the soleus and 26% in the gastrocnemius, respectively with 6 wk supplementation. There was no difference in the measured performance variables during the RSA test (peak and average power output). TTE during the CCT110% was significantly enhanced following the ingestion of BAl (155s ± 19.03) compared to Pl (134s ± 26.16). No changes were observed in blood pH during either exercise protocol and during the recovery from exercise. Plasma lactate in the BAl condition was significantly higher than Pl only from the 15th minute following exercise during the CCT110%. FIG. 1: Changes in carnosine concentration in the gastrocnemius prior and post 6 week chronic supplementation of placebo and β-alanine. Values expressed as mean.* p<0.05 from Pl at 6 weeks, # p<0.05 from pre supplementation. Conclusion/Discussion Greater muscle carnosine content following 6wk supplementation of ß-alanine enhanced the potential for intracellular buffering capacity. However, this only translated into enhanced performance during the CCT110% high intensity cycling exercise protocol, with no change observed during the RSA test. No differences in post exercise and recovery plasma lactates and blood pH, indicates that 6wks ß-alanine supplementation has no effect on anaerobic metabolism during multiple bout high intensity exercise. Changes in plasma lactate during recovery supports that ß-alanine supplementation may affect anaerobic metabolism however during single bout high intensity.

The effect of ß-alanine on buffering capacity and exercise performance during and following high-intensity exercise in healthy males

Intense exercise induced acidosis occurs after accumulation of hydrogen ions as by-products of anaerobic metabolism. Oral ingestion of ß-alanine, a limiting precursor of the intracellular physiochemical buffer carnosine in skeletal muscle, may counteract detrimental effects of acidosis and benefit performance. This study aimed to investigate the effect of ß-alanine as an ergogenic aid during high intensity exercise performance. Five healthy males ingested either ß-alanine or placebo (Pl) (CaCO3) in a crossover design with 6 wk washout between. Participants performed two different intense exercise protocols over consecutive days. On the first day a repeated sprint ability (RSA) test was performed. On the second day a cycling capacity test measuring the time to exhaustion (TTE) was performed at 110% of maximum workload achieved in a pre supplementation max test (CCT110%). Non-invasive quantification of carnosine, prior to, and following each supplementation, with in vivo magnetic resonance spectrometry was performed in the soleus and gastrocnemius muscle. Time to fatigue (CCT110%), peak and mean power (RSA), blood pH, and plasma lactate were measured. Muscle carnosine concentration was not different prior to ß-alanine supplementation and increased 18% in the soleus and 26% in the gastrocnemius, respectively after supplementation. There was no difference in the measured performance variables during the RSA test (peak and average power output). TTE during the CCT110% was significantly enhanced following the ingestion of BAl (155s ± 19.03) compared to Pl (134s ± 26.16). No changes were observed in blood pH during either exercise protocol and during the recovery from exercise. Plasma lactate after BAI was significantly higher than Pl only from the 15th minute following exercise during the CCT110%. Greater muscle carnosine content following 6wk supplementation of ß-alanine enhanced the potential for intracellular buffering capacity. This translated into enhanced performance during the CCT110% high intensity cycling exercise protocol but not during the RSA test. The lack of change in plasma lactate or blood pH indicates that 6wks ß-alanine supplementation has no effect on anaerobic metabolism during multiple-bout high-intensity exercise. Changes measured in plasma lactate during recovery support the hypothesis that ß-alanine supplementation may affect anaerobic metabolism particularly during single bout high intensity.

Writing Indigenous vampires: Aboriginal gothic or Aboriginal fantastic?

The usual postmodern suspicions about diligently deciphering authorial intent or stridently seeking fixed meaning/s and/or binary distinctions in an artistic work aside, this self-indulgent essay pushes the boundaries regarding normative academic research, for it focusses on my own (minimally celebrated) published creative writing’s status as a literary innovation. Dedicated to illuminating some of the less common denominators at play in Australian horror, my paper recalls the creative writing process involved when I set upon the (arrogant?) goal of creating a new genre of creative writing: that of the ‘Aboriginal Fantastic’. I compare my work to the literary output of a small but significant group (2.5% of the population), of which I am a member: Aboriginal Australians. I narrow my focus even further by examining that creative writing known as Aboriginal horror. And I reduce the sample size of my study to an exceptionally small number by restricting my view to one type of Aboriginal horror literature only: the Aboriginal vampire novel, a genre to which I have contributed professionally with the 2011 paperback and 2012 e-book publication of That Blackfella Bloodsucka Dance! However, as this paper hopefully demonstrates, and despite what may be interpreted by some cynical commentators as the faux sincerity of my taxonomic fervour, Aboriginal horror is a genre noteworthy for its instability and worthy of further academic interrogation. (first paragraph)

A cascade multilevel STATCOM for wind generation systems

This paper presents a novel STATCOM configuration for voltage quality improvement in wind power generation systems. The proposed STATCOM is formed by cascading two 3-level inverters, `bulk inverter' and `conditioning inverter', through a coupling transformer. Both inverters are powered by dc-link capacitors and they are charged by a small amount of active power drawn from the grid. To minimize switching losses, the high power bulk inverter operates at low frequency while low power high frequency conditioning inverter is used to suppress harmonic content produced by the bulk inverter output. With only 24 switches this topology can synthesize a nine level inverter, if the dc-link voltage ratio is maintained at 3:1. Modulation and control techniques have been developed to meet this requirement. Reactive power of the STATCOM is controlled to mitigate voltage sags or swells caused by sudden wind changes. Simulation and experimental results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed modulation and control techniques used in the STATCOM.

An experimental approach to air gap optimisation for a correction-less small field diode

Aim A recent Monte Carlo based study has shown that it is possible to design a diode that measures small field output factors equivalent to that in water. This is accomplished by placing an appropriate sized air gap above the silicon chip (1) with experimental results subsequently confirming that a particular Monte Carlo design was accurate (2). The aim of this work was to test if a new correction-less diode could be designed using an entirely experimental methodology. Method: All measurements were performed on a Varian iX at a depth of 5 cm, SSD of 95 cm and field sizes of 5, 6, 8, 10, 20 and 30 mm. Firstly, the experimental transfer of kq,clin,kq,msr from a commonly used diode detector (IBA, stereotactic field diode (SFD)) to another diode detector (Sun Nuclear, unshielded diode, (EDGEe)) was tested. These results were compared to Monte Carlo calculated values of the EDGEe. Secondly, the air gap above the EDGEe silicon chip was optimised empirically. Nine different air gap “tops” were placed above the EDGEe (air depth = 0.3, 0.6, 0.9 mm; air width = 3.06, 4.59, 6.13 mm). The sensitivity of the EDGEe was plotted as a function of air gap thickness for the field sizes measured. Results: The transfer of kq,clin,kq,msr from the SFD to the EDGEe was correct to within the simulation and measurement uncertainties. The EDGEe detector can be made “correction-less” for field sizes of 5 and 6 mm, but was ∼2% from being “correction-less” at field sizes of 8 and 10 mm. Conclusion Different materials will perturb small fields in different ways. A detector is only “correction-less” if all these perturbations happen to cancel out. Designing a “correction-less” diode is a complicated process, thus it is reasonable to expect that Monte Carlo simulations should play an important role.

Modelling the water, energy and economic nexus

The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.

Expression and regulation of vascular endothelial growth factor ligands and receptors during menstruation and post-menstrual repair of human endometrium

Regeneration and growth of the human endometrium after shedding of the functional layer during menstruation depends on an adequate angiogenic response. We analysed the mRNA expression levels of all known vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) ligands and receptors in human endometrium collected in the menstrual and proliferative phases of the menstrual cycle. In addition, we evaluated the expression of VEGF-A, VEGF-R2 and NRP-1 at the protein level. Two periods of elevated mRNA expression of ligands and receptors were observed, separated by a distinct drop at cycle days (CDs) 9 and 10. Immunohistochemical staining showed that VEGF and VEGF-R2 were expressed in epithelial, stromal and endothelial cells. NRP-1 was mainly confined to stroma and blood vessels; only in late-proliferative endometrium, epithelial staining was also observed. Except for endothelial VEGF-R2 expression in CDs 6-8, there were no significant differences in the expression of VEGF, VEGF-R2 or NRP-1 in any of the cell compartments. In contrast, VEGF release by cultured human endometrium explants decreased during the proliferative phase. This output was significantly reduced in menstrual and early-proliferative endometrium by estradiol (E2) treatment. Western blot analysis indicated that part of the VEGF-A was trapped in the extracellular matrix (ECM). Changes in VEGF ligands and receptors were associated with elevated expression of the hypoxia markers HIF1 alpha and CA-IX in the menstrual and early proliferative phases. HIF1 alpha was also detected in late-proliferative phase endometrium. Our findings indicate that VEGF-A exerts its actions mostly during the first half of the proliferative phase. Furthermore, VEGF-A production appears to be triggered by hypoxia in the menstrual phase and subsequently suppressed toy estrogen during the late proliferative phase.

Design and experimental testing of air slab caps which convert commercial electron diodes into dual purpose, correction-free diodes for small field dosimetry

Purpose Two diodes which do not require correction factors for small field relative output measurements are designed and validated using experimental methodology. This was achieved by adding an air layer above the active volume of the diode detectors, which canceled out the increase in response of the diodes in small fields relative to standard field sizes. Methods Due to the increased density of silicon and other components within a diode, additional electrons are created. In very small fields, a very small air gap acts as an effective filter of electrons with a high angle of incidence. The aim was to design a diode that balanced these perturbations to give a response similar to a water-only geometry. Three thicknesses of air were placed at the proximal end of a PTW 60017 electron diode (PTWe) using an adjustable “air cap”. A set of output ratios (ORfclin Det ) for square field sizes of side length down to 5 mm was measured using each air thickness and compared to ORfclin Det measured using an IBA stereotactic field diode (SFD). k fclin, f msr Qclin,Qmsr was transferred from the SFD to the PTWe diode and plotted as a function of air gap thickness for each field size. This enabled the optimal air gap thickness to be obtained by observing which thickness of air was required such that k fclin, f msr Qclin,Qmsr was equal to 1.00 at all field sizes. A similar procedure was used to find the optimal air thickness required to make a modified Sun Nuclear EDGE detector (EDGEe) which s “correction-free” in small field relative dosimetry. In addition, the feasibility of experimentally transferring k fclin, f msr Qclin,Qmsr values from the SFD to unknown diodes was tested by comparing the experimentally transferred k fclin, f msr Qclin,Qmsr values for unmodified PTWe and EDGEe diodes to Monte Carlo simulated values. Results 1.0 mm of air was required to make the PTWe diode correction-free. This modified diode (PTWeair) produced output factors equivalent to those in water at all field sizes (5–50 mm). The optimal air thickness required for the EDGEe diode was found to be 0.6 mm. The modified diode (EDGEeair) produced output factors equivalent to those in water, except at field sizes of 8 and 10 mm where it measured approximately 2% greater than the relative dose to water. The experimentally calculated k fclin, f msr Qclin,Qmsr for both the PTWe and the EDGEe diodes (without air) matched Monte Carlo simulated results, thus proving that it is feasible to transfer k fclin, f msr Qclin,Qmsr from one commercially available detector to another using experimental methods and the recommended experimental setup. Conclusions It is possible to create a diode which does not require corrections for small field output factor measurements. This has been performed and verified experimentally. The ability of a detector to be “correction-free” depends strongly on its design and composition. A nonwater-equivalent detector can only be “correction-free” if competing perturbations of the beam cancel out at all field sizes. This should not be confused with true water equivalency of a detector.

Profile of a narcissistic leader : coffee’s for closers only

Purpose In the past, leadership scholars have tended to focus on leadership as a force for good and productivity (Ashworth, 1994; Higgs, 2009; Padilla, Hogan, & Kaiser, 2007). However, recently attention has been given to the ‘dark side’ of leadership (see Higgs, 2009; Judge, Piccolo, & Kosalka, 2009). The aim of this chapter is to explore dark leadership from the perspective of the narcissistic leader using a fictional character from a popular film. Methodology/approach Using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, 1994 (DSM-IV) (American Psychiatric Association, 2000) as an operational definition of narcissistic personality disorder we explore the psychology of the narcissistic leader through a fictional character study in a popular film. Findings We have created a psychological profile of a narcissistic leader which identifies specific behavioural characteristics within a toxic organizational culture. Social implications This study has implications for employees within any organizational culture. It is significant because it can illustrate how dark leadership can impact negatively within organizations. Originality/value The use of actual living persons on which to base case study material in the study of dark leadership is problematic and constrained by ethical issues. However, the use of characters in fiction, such as contemporary film and drama, represents an excellent source of case study material. Given that little empirical works exists on narcissistic leaders and leadership, the chapter adds originality and value to the field.