Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes aegyptipopulations in Cairns, Australia : assessing drivers of dengue transmission

OBJECTIVES To identify the meteorological drivers of dengue vector density and determine high- and low-risk transmission zones for dengue prevention and control in Cairns, Australia. METHODS Weekly adult female Ae. aegypti data were obtained from 79 double sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in Cairns for the period September 2007-May 2012. Maximum temperature, total rainfall and average relative humidity data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the study period. Time series-distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the relationship between meteorological variables and vector density. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed via semivariography, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to predict vector density in Cairns. RESULTS Ae. aegypti density was associated with temperature and rainfall. However, these relationships differed between short (0-6 weeks) and long (0-30 weeks) lag periods. Semivariograms showed that vector distributions were spatially autocorrelated in September 2007-May 2008 and January 2009-May 2009, and vector density maps identified high transmission zones in the most populated parts of Cairns city, as well as Machans Beach. CONCLUSION Spatiotemporal patterns of Ae. aegypti in Cairns are complex, showing spatial autocorrelation and associations with temperature and rainfall. Sticky ovitraps should be placed no more than 1.2 km apart to ensure entomological coverage and efficient use of resources. Vector density maps provide evidence for the targeting of prevention and control activities. Further research is needed to explore the possibility of developing an early warning system of dengue based on meteorological and environmental factors.

Testosterone reinforcement : intravenous and intracerebroventricular self-administration in male rats and hamsters

Rationale: Anabolic steroids are drugs of abuse. However, the potential for addiction remains unclear. Testosterone induces conditioned place preference in rats and oral self-administration in hamsters. Objectives: To determine if male rats and hamsters consume testosterone by intravenous (IV) or intracerebroventricular (ICV) self- administration. Methods: With each nose-poke in the active hole during daily 4-h tests in an operant condi- tioning chamber, gonad-intact adult rats and hamsters received 50 mg testosterone in an aqueous solution of b-cyclodextrin via jugular cannula. The inactive nose- poke hole served as a control. Additional hamsters received vehicle infusions. Results: Rats (n=7) expressed a significant preference for the active nose-poke hole (10.0€2.8 responses/4 h) over the inactive hole (4.7€1.2 responses/4 h). Similarly, during 16 days of testosterone self-administration IV, hamsters (n=9) averaged 11.7€2.9 responses/4 h and 6.3€1.1 responses/4 h in the active and inactive nose-poke holes, respectively. By contrast, vehicle controls (n=8) failed to develop a preference for the active nose-poke hole (6.5€0.5 and 6.4€0.3 responses/4 h). Hamsters (n=8) also self-administered 1 mg testosterone ICV (active hole:39.8€6.0 nose-pokes/ 4 h; inactive hole: 22.6€7.1 nose-pokes/4 h). When testosterone was replaced with vehicle, nose-poking in the active hole declined from 31.1€7.6 to 11.9€3.2 responses/ 4 h within 6 days. Likewise, reversing active and inactive holes increased nose-poking in the previously inactive hole from 9.1€1.9 to 25.6€5.4 responses/4 h. However, reducing the testosterone dose from 1 mg to 0.2 mg per 1 ml injection did not change nose-poking. Conclu- sions: Compared with other drugs of abuse, testosterone reinforcement is modest. Nonetheless, these data support the hypothesis that testosterone is reinforcing.

High-load transit line passenger transmission and productiveness efficiencies

Performance of urban transit systems may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity in planning, design and operational management activities. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line, which are extended in this paper to quantify efficiency and operating fashion of transit services and lines. Comparison of a hypothetical bus line’s operation during a morning peak hour and daytime hour demonstrates the usefulness of productiveness efficiency and passenger transmission efficiency, passenger churn and average proportion line length traveled to the operator in understanding their services’ and lines’ productive performance, operating characteristics, and quality of service. Productiveness efficiency can flag potential pass-up activity under high load conditions, as well as ineffective resource deployment. Proportion line length traveled can directly measure operating fashion. These measures can be used to compare between lines/routes and, within a given line, various operating scenarios and time horizons to target improvements. The next research stage is investigating within-line variation using smart card passenger data and field observation of pass-ups. Insights will be used to further develop practical guidance to operators.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Projecting future transmission of malaria under climate change scenarios : challenges and research needs

There has been an intense debate about climatic impacts on the transmission of malaria. It is vitally important to accurately project future impacts of climate change on malaria to support effective policy–making and intervention activity concerning malaria control and prevention. This paper critically reviewed the published literature and examined both key findings and methodological issues in projecting future impacts of climate change on malaria transmission. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases MEDLINE, Web of Science and PubMed. The projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission were spatially heterogeneous and somewhat inconsistent. The variation in results may be explained by the interaction of climatic factors and malaria transmission cycles, variations in projection frameworks and uncertainties of future socioecological (including climate) changes. Current knowledge gaps are identified, future research directions are proposed and public health implications are assessed. Improving the understanding of the dynamic effects of climate on malaria transmission cycles, the advancement of modelling techniques and the incorporation of uncertainties in future socioecological changes are critical factors for projecting the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.

Demand-side response model to avoid spike of electricity price

The aim of this work is to develop a demand-side-response model, which assists electricity consumers exposed to the market price to independently and proactively manage air-conditioning peak electricity demand. The main contribution of this research is to show how consumers can optimize the energy cost caused by the air conditioning load considering to several cases e.g. normal price, spike price, and the probability of a price spike case. This model also investigated how air-conditioning applies a pre-cooling method when there is a substantial risk of a price spike. The results indicate the potential of the scheme to achieve financial benefits for consumers and target the best economic performance for electrical generation distribution and transmission. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics regarding hot days from 2011 to 2012.

Integrating 40Ar-39Ar, 87Rb-87Sr and 147Sm-143Nd geochronology of authigenic illite to evaluate tectonic reactivation in an intraplate setting, central Australia

The Warburton-Cooper basins, central Australia, include a multitude of reactivated fracture-fault networks related to a complex, and poorly understood, tectonic evolution. We investigated authigenic illites from a granitic intrusion and sedimentary rocks associated with prominent structural features (Gidgealpa-Merrimelia-Innamincka Ridge and the Nappamerri Trough). These were analysed by 40Ar-39Ar, 87Rb-87Sr and 147Sm-143Nd geochronology to explore the thermal and tectonic histories of central Australian basins. The combined age data provide evidence for three major periods of fault reactivation throughout the Phanerozoic. While Carboniferous (323.3 ± 9.4 Ma) and Late Triassic ages (201.7 ± 9.3 Ma) derive from basin-wide hydrothermal circulation, Cretaceous ages (~128 to ~86 Ma) reflect episodic fluid flow events restricted to the synclinal Nappamerri Trough. Such events result from regional extensional tectonism derived from the transferral of far-field stresses to mechanically and thermally weakened regions of the Australian continent. Specifically, Cretaceous ages reflect continent-wide transmission of tensional stress from a > 2500 km long rifting event on the Eastern (and southern) Australian margin associated with break-up of Gondwana and opening of the Tasman Sea. By integrating 40Ar-39Ar, 87Rb-87Sr and 147Sm-143Nd dating, this study highlights the use of authigenic illite in temporally constraining the tectonic evolution of intracontinental basins that would otherwise remain unknown. Furthermore, combining Sr- and Ar-isotopic systems enables more accurate dating of authigenesis whilst significantly reducing geochemical pitfalls commonly associated with these radioisotopic dating methods.

A coding approach to the multicast stream authentication problem

We study the multicast stream authentication problem when an opponent can drop, reorder and introduce data packets into the communication channel. In such a model, packet overhead and computing efficiency are two parameters to be taken into account when designing a multicast stream protocol. In this paper, we propose to use two families of erasure codes to deal with this problem, namely, rateless codes and maximum distance separable codes. Our constructions will have the following advantages. First, our packet overhead will be small. Second, the number of signature verifications to be performed at the receiver is O(1). Third, every receiver will be able to recover all the original data packets emitted by the sender despite losses and injection occurred during the transmission of information.

An algebraic approach for determination of DG parameters to support voltage profiles in radial distribution networks

Rapidly increasing electricity demands and capacity shortage of transmission and distribution facilities are the main driving forces for the growth of Distributed Generation (DG) integration in power grids. One of the reasons for choosing a DG is its ability to support voltage in a distribution system. Selection of effective DG characteristics and DG parameters is a significant concern of distribution system planners to obtain maximum potential benefits from the DG unit. This paper addresses the issue of improving the network voltage profile in distribution systems by installing a DG of the most suitable size, at a suitable location. An analytical approach is developed based on algebraic equations for uniformly distributed loads to determine the optimal operation, size and location of the DG in order to achieve required levels of network voltage. The developed method is simple to use for conceptual design and analysis of distribution system expansion with a DG and suitable for a quick estimation of DG parameters (such as optimal operating angle, size and location of a DG system) in a radial network. A practical network is used to verify the proposed technique and test results are presented.

Mechanochemical synthesis of aluminium nanoparticles and their deuterium sorption properties to 2 kbar

A mechanochemical synthesis process has been used to synthesise aluminium nanoparticles. The aluminium is synthesised via a solid state chemical reaction which is initiated inside a ball mill at room temperature between either lithium (Li) or sodium (Na) metal which act as reducing agents with unreduced aluminium chloride (AlCl3). The reaction product formed consists of aluminium nanoparticles embedded within a by-product salt phase (LiCl or NaCl, respectively). The LiCl is washed with a suitable solvent resulting in aluminium (Al) nanoparticles which are not oxidised and are separated from the byproduct phase. Synthesis and washing was confirmed using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Nanoparticles were found to be ∼25–100nm from transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and an average size of 55nm was determined fromsmall angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) measurements. As synthesised Al/NaCl composites, washed Al nanoparticles, and purchased Al nanoparticles were deuterium (D2) absorption tested up to 2 kbar at a variety of temperatures, with no absorption detected within system resolution.

Assessing the property market impact of stigma removal : high voltage overhead transmission lines removal in Wellington, NZ

This thesis advances the understanding of the impact of stigma on property values. A case study in Wellington, New Zealand, enabled hedonic modelling and an empirical analysis to determine the impact of the stigma from the high voltage transmission line structure and how long the stigma remained after removal. The results reveal a substantial difference between the discount applied to individual properties while the structure is in place, as compared to the overall increase in neighbourhood value once the structure, which created the stigma, is removed.