Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Governors highway safety associations and transportation planning: Exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991 mandated the consideration of safety in the regional transportation planning process. As part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program Project 8-44, "Incorporating Safety into the Transportation Planning Process," we conducted a telephone survey to assess safety-related activities and expertise at Governors Highway Safety Associations (GHSAs), and GHSA relationships with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). The survey results were combined with statewide crash data to enable exploratory modeling of the relationship between GHSA policies and programs and statewide safety. The modeling objective was to illuminate current hurdles to ISTEA implementation, so that appropriate institutional, analytical, and personnel improvements can be made. The study revealed that coordination of transportation safety across DOTs, MPOs, GHSAs, and departments of public safety is generally beneficial to the implementation of safety. In addition, better coordination is characterized by more positive and constructive attitudes toward incorporating safety into planning.

Dynamic coast control of train movement with genetic algorithm

The railway service is now the major transportation means in most of the countries around the world. With the increasing population and expanding commercial and industrial activities, a high quality of railway service is the most desirable. Train service usually varies with the population activities throughout a day and train coordination and service regulation are then expected to meet the daily passengers' demand. Dwell time control at stations and fixed coasting point in an inter-station run are the current practices to regulate train service in most metro railway systems. However, a flexible and efficient train control and operation is not always possible. To minimize energy consumption of train operation and make certain compromises on the train schedule, coast control is an economical approach to balance run-time and energy consumption in railway operation if time is not an important issue, particularly at off-peak hours. The capability to identify the starting point for coasting according to the current traffic conditions provides the necessary flexibility for train operation. This paper presents an application of genetic algorithms (GA) to search for the appropriate coasting point(s) and investigates the possible improvement on fitness of genes. Single and multiple coasting point control with simple GA are developed to attain the solutions and their corresponding train movement is examined. Further, a hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA) is introduced here to identify the number of coasting points required according to the traffic conditions, and Minimum-Allele-Reserve-Keeper (MARK) is adopted as a genetic operator to achieve fitter solutions.

Sustainable infrastructure project planning : progress in contemporary decision support tools

Most infrastructure project developments are complex in nature, particularly in the planning phase. During this stage, many vague alternatives are tabled - from the strategic to operational level. Human judgement and decision making are characterised by biases, errors and the use of heuristics. These factors are intangible and hard to measure because they are subjective and qualitative in nature. The problem with human judgement becomes more complex when a group of people are involved. The variety of different stakeholders may cause conflict due to differences in personal judgements. Hence, the available alternatives increase the complexities of the decision making process. Therefore, it is desirable to find ways of enhancing the efficiency of decision making to avoid misunderstandings and conflict within organisations. As a result, numerous attempts have been made to solve problems in this area by leveraging technologies such as decision support systems. However, most construction project management decision support systems only concentrate on model development and neglect fundamentals of computing such as requirement engineering, data communication, data management and human centred computing. Thus, decision support systems are complicated and are less efficient in supporting the decision making of project team members. It is desirable for decision support systems to be simpler, to provide a better collaborative platform, to allow for efficient data manipulation, and to adequately reflect user needs. In this chapter, a framework for a more desirable decision support system environment is presented. Some key issues related to decision support system implementation are also described.

Coast control of train movement with genetic algorithms

Railway service is now the major transportation means in most of the countries around the world. With the increasing population and expanding commercial and industrial activities, a high quality of railway service is the most desirable. We present an application of genetic algorithms (GA) to search for the appropriate coasting point(s) and investigate the possible improvement on fitness of genes. Single and multiple coasting point control with simple GA are developed to attain the solutions and their corresponding train movement is examined. The multiple coasting point control with hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA) is then proposed to integrate the determination of the number of coasting points.

3D visualisation of groundwater/surface water systems as a planning and communication tool

Groundwater is increasingly recognised as an important yet vulnerable natural resource, and a key consideration in water cycle management. However, communication of sub-surface water system behaviour, as an important part of encouraging better water management, is visually difficult. Modern 3D visualisation techniques can be used to effectively communicate these complex behaviours to engage and inform community stakeholders. Most software developed for this purpose is expensive and requires specialist skills. The Groundwater Visualisation System (GVS) developed by QUT integrates a wide range of surface and sub-surface data, to produce a 3D visualisation of the behaviour, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Surface data (elevation, surface water, land use, vegetation and geology) and data collected from boreholes (bore locations and subsurface geology) are combined to visualise the nature, structure and connectivity of groundwater/surface water systems. Time-series data (water levels, groundwater quality, rainfall, stream flow and groundwater abstraction) is displayed as an animation within the 3D framework, or graphically, to show water system condition changes over time. GVS delivers an interactive, stand-alone 3D Visualisation product that can be used in a standard PC environment. No specialised training or modelling skills are required. The software has been used extensively in the SEQ region to inform and engage both water managers and the community alike. Examples will be given of GVS visualisations developed in areas where there have been community concerns around groundwater over-use and contamination.

Geographical information systems : an effective planning and decision-making platform for community health coalitions in Australia

The development of locally-based healthcare initiatives, such as community health coalitions that focus on capacity building programs and multi-faceted responses to long-term health problems, have become an increasingly important part of the public health landscape. As a result of their complexity and the level of investment, it has become necessary to develop innovative ways to help manage these new healthcare approaches. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been suggested as one of the innovative approaches that will allow community health coalitions to better manage and plan their activities. The focus of this paper is to provide a commentary on the use of GIS as a tool for community coalitions and discuss some of the potential benefits and issues surrounding the development of these tools.

Effect of pedestrian movement on MIMO-OFDM channel capacity in an indoor environment

The rapid growth of mobile telephone use, satellite services, and now the wireless Internet and WLANs are generating tremendous changes in telecommunication and networking. As indoor wireless communications become more prevalent, modeling indoor radio wave propagation in populated environments is a topic of significant interest. Wireless MIMO communication exploits phenomena such as multipath propagation to increase data throughput and range, or reduce bit error rates, rather than attempting to eliminate effects of multipath propagation as traditional SISO communication systems seek to do. The MIMO approach can yield significant gains for both link and network capacities, with no additional transmitting power or bandwidth consumption when compared to conventional single-array diversity methods. When MIMO and OFDM systems are combined and deployed in a suitable rich scattering environment such as indoors, a significant capacity gain can be observed due to the assurance of multipath propagation. Channel variations can occur as a result of movement of personnel, industrial machinery, vehicles and other equipment moving within the indoor environment. The time-varying effects on the propagation channel in populated indoor environments depend on the different pedestrian traffic conditions and the particular type of environment considered. A systematic measurement campaign to study pedestrian movement effects in indoor MIMO-OFDM channels has not yet been fully undertaken. Measuring channel variations caused by the relative positioning of pedestrians is essential in the study of indoor MIMO-OFDM broadband wireless networks. Theoretically, due to high multipath scattering, an increase in MIMO-OFDM channel capacity is expected when pedestrians are present. However, measurements indicate that some reductions in channel capacity could be observed as the number of pedestrians approaches 10 due to a reduction in multipath conditions as more human bodies absorb the wireless signals. This dissertation presents a systematic characterization of the effects of pedestrians in indoor MIMO-OFDM channels. Measurement results, using the MIMO-OFDM channel sounder developed at the CSIRO ICT Centre, have been validated by a customized Geometric Optics-based ray tracing simulation. Based on measured and simulated MIMO-OFDM channel capacity and MIMO-OFDM capacity dynamic range, an improved deterministic model for MIMO-OFDM channels in indoor populated environments is presented. The model can be used for the design and analysis of future WLAN to be deployed in indoor environments. The results obtained show that, in both Fixed SNR and Fixed Tx for deterministic condition, the channel capacity dynamic range rose with the number of pedestrians as well as with the number of antenna combinations. In random scenarios with 10 pedestrians, an increment in channel capacity of up to 0.89 bits/sec/Hz in Fixed SNR and up to 1.52 bits/sec/Hz in Fixed Tx has been recorded compared to the one pedestrian scenario. In addition, from the results a maximum increase in average channel capacity of 49% has been measured while 4 antenna elements are used, compared with 2 antenna elements. The highest measured average capacity, 11.75 bits/sec/Hz, corresponds to the 4x4 array with 10 pedestrians moving randomly. Moreover, Additionally, the spread between the highest and lowest value of the the dynamic range is larger for Fixed Tx, predicted 5.5 bits/sec/Hz and measured 1.5 bits/sec/Hz, in comparison with Fixed SNR criteria, predicted 1.5 bits/sec/Hz and measured 0.7 bits/sec/Hz. This has been confirmed by both measurements and simulations ranging from 1 to 5, 7 and 10 pedestrians.

A multi-train movement simulator with moving blocking signalling

Abstract Being as a relatively new approach of signalling, moving-block scheme significantly increases line capacity, especially on congested railways. This paper describes a simulation system for multi-train operation under moving-block signalling scheme. The simulator can be used to calculate minimum headways and safety characteristics under pre-set timetables or headways and different geographic and traction conditions. Advanced software techniques are adopted to support the flexibility within the simulator so that it is a general-purpose computer-aided design tool to evaluate the performance of moving block signalling.

Factors contributing to ethical issues in project procurement planning : a case study in Malaysia

The construction industry plays a substantial role in a country’s national economy, irrespective of the country’s levels of economic development. The Malaysian Government has given a much needed boost to the country’s construction projects under the 9th Malaysian Plan where a total of 880 projects worth RM15billion (US$48billion) is to be tendered (The Star, 2006). However, Malaysia has not escaped the problems of project failure. In 2005, 17.3% of 417 Malaysian government contracts projects were considered “sick”. Project procurement is one of the most important stages of project delivery. Even though ethics in project procurement has been identified as one of the contributors to project failure, it has not been systematically studied before from the perspective of client in Malaysia. The aim of this paper is to present an exploration to the ethical issues in project procurement in Malaysian public sector projects. By exploring ethical issues from client perspective, this could provide an ethical standpoint for the project life cycle and could maintain a good affiliation between the clients and the customers. It is expected that findings from this review will be somewhat representative of other developing countries.

A closer look at business planning : early stage outcome effects of how it is prepared and used

The widespread use of business planning in combination with the mixed theoretical and empirical support for its effect suggest research is needed that takes a deeper into the quality of plans and how they are used. In this study we longitudinally examine use vs. non-use; degree of formalizations; revision of plans, and moderation of planning effects by product novelty,among nascent firms. We relate these to attainment of profitability after 12 months. We find that business planning is negatively related to profitability, but that revising plans is positively related to profitability. Both these effects are stronger under conditions of high product novelty.

Ubiquitous and smart system approaches to infrastructure planning : learnings from Korea, Japan and Hong Kong

The robust economic growth across South East Asia and the significant advances in nano-technologies in the past two decades have resulted in the creation of intelligent urban infrastructures. Cities like Seoul, Tokyo and Hong Kong have been competing against each other to develop the first ‘ubiquitous city’, a strategic global node of science and technology that provides all municipal services for residents and visitors via ubiquitous infrastructures. This chapter scrutinises the development of ubiquitous and smart infrastructure in Korea, Japan and Hong Kong. These cases provide invaluable learnings for policy-makers and urban and infrastructure planners when considering adopting these systems approaches in their cities.

Sustainable urban development : an integrated framework for urban planning and development

Sustainable development has long been promoted as the best answer to the world’s environmental problems. This term has generated mass appeal as it implies that both the development of the built environment and its associated resource consumption can be achieved without jeopardising the natural environment. In the urban context, sustainability issues have been reflected in the promotion of sustainable urban development, which emphasises the sensible exploitation of scarce natural resources for urbanisation in a manner that allows future generations to repeat the process. This chapter highlights attempts to promote sustainable urban development through an integration of three important considerations: planning, development and the ecosystem. It highlights the fact that spatial planning processes were traditionally driven by economic and social objectives, and rarely involved promoting the sustainability agenda to achieve a sustainable urban future. As a result, rapid urbanisation has created a variety of pressures on the ecosystem upon which we rely. It is believed that the integration of the urban planning and development processes within the limitations of the ecosystem, monitored by a sustainability assessment mechanism, would offer a better approach to maintaining sustainable resource use without compromising urban development.

Planning for sustainable urban futures : an ecological approach to sustainable urban development

In recent years, cities have shown increasing signs of environmental problems due to the negative impacts of urban activities. The degradation and depletion of natural resources, climate change, and development pressure on green areas have become major concerns for cities. In response to these problems, urban planning policies have shifted to a sustainable focus and authorities have begun to develop new strategies for improving the quality of urban ecosystems. An extremely important function of an urban ecosystem is to provide healthy and sustainable environments for both natural systems and communities. Therefore, ecological planning is a functional requirement in the establishment of sustainable built environment. With ecological planning, human needs are supplied while natural resources are used in the most effective and sustainable manner and ecological balance is sustained. Protecting human and environmental health, having healthy ecosystems, reducing environmental pollution and providing green spaces are just a few of the many benefits of ecological planning. In this context, this chapter briefly presents a short overview of the importance of the implementation of ecological planning into sustainable urban development. Furthermore, it presents a conceptual framework for a new methodology for developing sustainable urban ecosystems through ecological planning approach.