Development of a log-quadratic model to describe microbial inactivation, illustrated by thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum

In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of Plasmodium vivax infection

Background The benign reputation of Plasmodium vivax is at odds with the burden and severity of the disease. This reputation, combined with restricted in vitro techniques, has slowed efforts to gain an understanding of the parasite biology and interaction with its human host. Methods A simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. vivax infection is described, incorporating distinctive characteristics of the parasite such as the preferential invasion of reticulocytes and hypnozoite production. The developed model is fitted using digitized time-series’ from historic neurosyphilis studies, and subsequently validated against summary statistics from a larger study of the same population. The Chesson relapse pattern was used to demonstrate the impact of released hypnozoites. Results The typical pattern for dynamics of the parasite population is a rapid exponential increase in the first 10 days, followed by a gradual decline. Gametocyte counts follow a similar trend, but are approximately two orders of magnitude lower. The model predicts that, on average, an infected naïve host in the absence of treatment becomes infectious 7.9 days post patency and is infectious for a mean of 34.4 days. In the absence of treatment, the effect of hypnozoite release was not apparent as newly released parasites were obscured by the existing infection. Conclusions The results from the model provides useful insights into the dynamics of P. vivax infection in human hosts, in particular the timing of host infectiousness and the role of the hypnozoite in perpetuating infection.

NEU-MODEL : a multi-level object-oriented dynamic emulation laboratory

Computational neuroscience aims to elucidate the mechanisms of neural information processing and population dynamics, through a methodology of incorporating biological data into complex mathematical models. Existing simulation environments model at a particular level of detail; none allow a multi-level approach to neural modelling. Moreover, most are not engineered to produce compute-efficient solutions, an important issue because sufficient processing power is a major impediment in the field. This project aims to apply modern software engineering techniques to create a flexible high performance neural modelling environment, which will allow rigorous exploration of model parameter effects, and modelling at multiple levels of abstraction.

Model-based analysis and optimization of bioreactor for hematopoietic stem cell cultivation

One of the problems to be solved in attaining the full potentials of hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) applications is the limited availability of the cells. Growing HSCs in a bioreactor offers an alternative solution to this problem. Besides, it also offers the advantages of eliminating labour intensive process as well as the possible contamination involved in the periodic nutrient replenishments in the traditional T-flask stem cell cultivation. In spite of this, the optimization of HSC cultivation in a bioreactor has been barely explored. This manuscript discusses the development of a mathematical model to describe the dynamics in nutrient distribution and cell concentration of an ex vivo HSC cultivation in a microchannel perfusion bioreactor. The model was further used to optimize the cultivation by proposing three alternative feeding strategies in order to prevent the occurrence of nutrient limitation in the bioreactor. The evaluation of these strategies, the periodic step change increase in the inlet oxygen concentration, the periodic step change increase in the media inflow, and the feedback control of media inflow, shows that these strategies can successfully improve the cell yield of the bioreactor. In general, the developed model is useful for the design and optimization of bioreactor operation.

Development and parameterization of a rain- and fire-driven model for exploring elephant effects in African savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree-grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Historical intake and elimination of polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides by the Australian population reconstructed from biomonitoring data

Quantifying the competing rates of intake and elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the human body is necessary to understand the levels and trends of POPs at a population level. In this paper we reconstruct the historical intake and elimination of ten polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and five organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from Australian biomonitoring data by fitting a population-level pharmacokinetic (PK) model. Our analysis exploits two sets of cross-sectional biomonitoring data for PCBs and OCPs in pooled blood serum samples from the Australian population that were collected in 2003 and 2009. The modeled adult reference intakes in 1975 for PCB congeners ranged from 0.89 to 24.5 ng/kg bw/day, lower than the daily intakes of OCPs ranging from 73 to 970 ng/kg bw/day. Modeled intake rates are declining with half-times from 1.1 to 1.3 years for PCB congeners and 0.83 to 0.97 years for OCPs. The shortest modeled intrinsic human elimination half-life among the compounds studied here is 6.4 years for hexachlorobenzene, and the longest is 30 years for PCB-74. Our results indicate that it is feasible to reconstruct intakes and to estimate intrinsic human elimination half-lives using the population-level PK model and biomonitoring data only. Our modeled intrinsic human elimination half-lives are in good agreement with values from a similar study carried out for the population of the United Kingdom, and are generally longer than reported values from other industrialized countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

A new model for airport passenger segmentation

Recent changes in the aviation industry and in the expectations of travellers have begun to alter the way we approach our understanding, and thus the segmentation, of airport passengers. The key to successful segmentation of any population lies in the selection of the criteria on which the partitions are based. Increasingly, the basic criteria used to segment passengers (purpose of trip and frequency of travel) no longer provide adequate insights into the passenger experience. In this paper, we propose a new model for passenger segmentation based on the passenger core value, time. The results are based on qualitative research conducted in-situ at Brisbane International Terminal during 2012-2013. Based on our research, a relationship between time sensitivity and degree of passenger engagement was identified. This relationship was used as the basis for a new passenger segmentation model, namely: Airport Enthusiast (engaged, non time sensitive); Time Filler (non engaged, non time sensitive); Efficiency Lover (non engaged, time sensitive) and Efficient Enthusiast (engaged, time sensitive). The outcomes of this research extend the theoretical knowledge about passenger experience in the terminal environment. These new insights can ultimately be used to optimise the allocation of space for future terminal planning and design.

Empirical reference points for Bernstein’s model of pedagogic rights: Recontextualising the reconciliation agenda to Australian schooling

In this chapter we use Bernstein’s (2000) model of pedagogic rights to examine the learning experiences for non-Indigenous teachers in two reconciliation projects. In the context within which we write, reconciliation is the process of establishing a culture of mutual respect between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and non-Indigenous Australians. In 1991, the Royal Commission into Aboriginal Deaths in Custody linked the continuation of racism in Australian society to the weak coverage of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander content in the school curriculum (Reconciliation Australia 2010). Nearly two decades later, the Melbourne Declaration on Educational Goals for Young Australians issued by the council of Federal, State and Territory Ministers of Education proclaimed that curriculum should enable all students to ‘understand and acknowledge the value of Indigenous cultures and possess the knowledge, skills and understanding to contribute to, and benefit from reconciliation between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians’ (MCEETYA 2008, 9). Education holds out promise not only of better life chances for Indigenous young people, but also of replacing myths with understanding and tackling prejudice and racism within the non-Indigenous population. Bernstein’s (2000) model of pedagogic rights promises some purchase on this pedagogic work by providing concepts for looking systematically at the participation of non-Indigenous teachers in education. As observed by Frandji and Vitale (Chapter 2, this volume), the model is not sufficient to achieve a democratic reality, ‘but simply provides a basis for problematizing reality and considering possibilities’.

A humanized tissue-engineered in vivo model to dissect interactions between human prostate cancer cells and human bone

Currently used xenograft models for prostate cancer bone metastasis lack the adequate tissue composition necessary to study the interactions between human prostate cancer cells and the human bone microenvironment. We introduce a tissue engineering approach to explore the interactions between human tumor cells and a humanized bone microenvironment. Scaffolds, seeded with human primary osteoblasts in conjunction with BMP7, were implanted into immunodeficient mice to form humanized tissue engineered bone constructs (hTEBCs) which consequently resulted in the generation of highly vascularized and viable humanized bone. At 12 weeks, PC3 and LNCaP cells were injected into the hTEBCs. Seven weeks later the mice were euthanized. Micro-CT, histology, TRAP, PTHrP and osteocalcin staining results reflected the different characteristics of the two cell lines regarding their phenotypic growth pattern within bone. Microvessel density, as assessed by vWF staining, showed that tumor vessel density was significantly higher in LNCaP injected hTEBC implants than in those injected with PC3 cells (p\0.001). Interestingly, PC3 cells showed morphological features of epithelial and mesenchymal phenotypes suggesting a cellular plasticity within this microenvironment. Taken together, a highly reproducible humanized model was established which is successful in generating LNCaP and PC3 tumors within a complex humanized bone microenvironment. This model simulates the conditions seen clinically more closely than any other model described in the literature to date and hence represents a powerful experimental platform that can be used in future work to investigate specific biological questions relevant to bone metastasis.

A developmental cascade model of behavioral sleep problems and emotional and attentional self-regulation across early childhood

This paper documents the longitudinal and reciprocal relations among behavioral sleep problems, emotional and attentional self-regulation in a population sample of 4109 children participating in the Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) – Infant Cohort. Maternal reports of children’s sleep problems and self-regulation were collected at five time points from infancy to 8-9 years of age. Longitudinal structural equation modeling supported a developmental cascade model in which sleep problems have a persistent negative effect on emotional regulation, which in turn contributes to ongoing sleep problems and poorer attentional regulation in children over time. Findings suggest that sleep behaviors are a key target for interventions that aim to improve children’s self-regulatory capacities.

Colonoscopy requirements of population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand

Aim: To estimate the colonoscopy burden of introducing population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand. Methods: Screening for colorectal cancer using biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood tests offered to people aged 50-74 years of age was modelled using population estimates from Statistics New Zealand for 2011-2031. Modelling to determine colonoscopy requirements was based on participation and test positivity rates from published results of screening programmes. Estimates of the number of procedures required for ongoing adenoma surveillance were calculated using screening literature results of adenoma yield, and New Zealand Guidelines for Adenoma Surveillance. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken on key parameters. Results: For a test positivity of 6.4%, biennial screening using immunochemical faecal occult blood testing with a 60% participation rate, would require 18,000 colonoscopies nationally, increasing to 28,000 by 2031. The majority of procedures are direct referrals from a positive FOBT, with surveillance colonoscopy numbers building over time. Conclusion: Colonoscopy requirements for immunochemical faecal occult blood based population screening for colorectal cancer are high. Significant expansion of services is required and careful management of surveillance procedures to ensure timely delivery of initial colonoscopies whilst maintaining symptomatic services. A model re-run informed by data from the screening pilot will allow improved estimates for the New Zealand setting.

Start making sense: Applying a salutogenic model to architectural design for psychiatric care

Purpose This paper aims to look into the significance of architectural design in psychiatric care facilities. There is a strong correlation between perceptual dysfunction and psychiatric illness, and also between the patient and his environment. As such, even minor design choices can be of great consequence in a psychiatric facility. It is of critical importance, therefore, that a psychiatric milieu is sympathetic and does not exacerbate the psychosis. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses the architectural elements that may influence mental health, using an architectural extrapolation of Antonovsky’s salutogenic theory, which states that better health results from a state of mind which has a fortified sense of coherence. According to the theory, a sense of coherence is fostered by a patient’s ability to comprehend the environment (comprehensibility), to be effective in his actions (manageability) and to find meaning (meaningfullness). Findings Salutogenic theory can be extrapolated in an architectural context to inform design choices when designing for a stress-sensitive client base. Research limitations/implications In the paper an architectural extrapolation of salutogenic theory is presented as a practical method for making design decisions (in praxis) when evidence is not available. As demonstrated, the results appear to reflect what evidence is available, but real evidence is always desirable over rationalist speculation. The method suggested here cannot prove the efficacy or appropriateness of design decisions and is not intended to do so. Practical implications The design of mental health facilities has long been dominated by unsubstantiated policy and normative opinions that do not always serve the client population. This method establishes a practical theoretical model for generating architectural design guidelines for mental health facilities. Originality/value The paper will prove to be helpful in several ways. First, salutogenic theory is a useful framework for improving health outcomes, but in the past the theory has never been applied in a methodological way. Second, there have been few insights into how the architecture itself can improve the functionality of a mental health facility other than improve the secondary functions of hospital services.

Groundwater balance research to improve the accuracy of drawdown predictions in the Surat Basin, Queensland

Groundwater modelling studies rely on an accurate determination of inputs and outputs that make up the water balance. Often there is large uncertainty associated with estimates of recharge and unmetered groundwater use. This can translate to equivalent uncertainty in the forecasting of sustainable yields, impacts of extraction, and susceptibility of groundwater dependent ecosystems. In the case of Coal Seam Gas, it is important to characterise the temporal and special distribution of depressurisation in the reservoir and how this may or may not extend to the adjacent aquifers. A regional groundwater flow model has been developed by the Queensland Government to predict drawdown impacts due to Coal Seam Gas activities in the Surat basin. This groundwater model is undergoing continued refinement and there is currently scope to address some of the key areas of uncertainty including better quantification of groundwater recharge and unmetered groundwater extractions. Research is currently underway to improve the accuracy of estimates of both of these components of the groundwater balance in order to reduce uncertainty in predicted groundwater drawdowns due to CSG activities.

Traditional and geometric morphometrics detect morphological variation of lower pharyngeal jaw inCoris julis(Teleostei, Labridae)

In the present study, variation in the morphology of the lower pharyngeal element between two Sicilian populations of the rainbow wrasse Coris julis has been explored by the means of traditional morphometrics for size and geometric morphometrics for shape. Despite close geographical distance and probable high genetic flow between the populations, statistically significant differences have been found both for size and shape. In fact, one population shows a larger lower pharyngeal element that has a larger central tooth. Compared to the other population, this population also has medially enlarged lower pharyngeal jaws with a more pronounced convexity of the medial-posterior margin. The results are discussed in the light of a possible more pronounced durophagy of this population.