Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Things that fall over : Women's playwriting, poetics and the (anti-)musical

Abstract: This study explores the contradictions and ambivalences experienced by a working artist at a time when her age, her gender, and broader cultural shifts are all potential obstacles or liabilities to creative flourishing. It is the product of practice-led research into the creative process from the perspective of the female "late bloomer". In this phrase, I have in mind the mature-aged woman who is, in mid-life, suddenly seized with inspiration and fired with creative energy. At its heart is the question: If an Elizabeth Jolley were in our midst today, would we hear from her? The result is a full-length libretto and accompanying exegetical binoculars in the form of a Preface and an Afterword. The creative work, Things That Fall Over (TTFO) is conceived in two parts: a libretto and oratorio for performance. It begins as a play, but over three acts and into a coda, the work becomes something entirely other - an (anti-) musical. The work grew from a personal interest in the nexus between women, ageing and creative practice, via investigation into the oeuvre of two Australian artists, Elizabeth Jolley, author, first published at age 53, and Rosalie Gascoigne, sculptor, first exhibited at 58. A second strand of the research grew from a fascination for the stage musical, especially in its more alternative modes as in the hands of Stephen Sondheim, or in more provocative manifestations as witnessed in recent Tony Award winners Avenue Q and The Book of Mormon. Contextually, this research is conducted at a time when anecdotal evidence suggests that women’s work in the performing arts and in literature is being pushed to the margins after a late twentieth century Golden Age on page and stage. Using hybrid practice-led methodologies - bricolage, log-keeping - and working within queer and feminist paradigms, this study seeks to counter that push with a new work that is all-female, part-pantomime, part monstrous allegory. In illuminating the creative process of a mature-aged playwright it concludes that hybrid and interstitial forms still offer an inclusive and democratic space in which voices that may otherwise be muted will continue to be heard.

'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

4000 years of phenotypic change in an island bird: heterogeneity of selection over three microevolutionary timescales.

Pronounced phenotypic shifts in island populations are typically attributed to natural selection, but reconstructing heterogeneity in long-term selective regimes remains a challenge. We examined a scenario of divergence proposed for species colonizing a new environment, involving directional selection with a rapid shift to a new optimum and subsequent stabilization. We provide some of the first empirical evidence for this model of evolution using morphological data from three timescales in an island bird, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus. In less than four millennia since separation from its mainland counterpart, a substantial increase in body size has occurred and was probably achieved in fewer than 500 generations after colonization. Over four recent decades, morphological traits have fluctuated in size but showed no significant directional trends, suggesting maintenance of a relatively stable phenotype. Finally, estimates of contemporary selection gradients indicated generally weak directional selection. These results provide a rare description of heterogeneity in long-term natural regimes, and caution that observations of current selection may be of limited value in inferring mechanisms of past adaptation due to a lack of constancy even over short time-frames.

Mixed-method pre-cooling reduces physiological demand without improving performance of medium-fast bowling in the heat

This study examined physiological and performance effects of pre-cooling on medium-fast bowling in the heat. Ten, medium-fast bowlers completed two randomised trials involving either cooling (mixed-methods) or control (no cooling) interventions before a 6-over bowling spell in 31.9±2.1°C and 63.5±9.3% relative humidity. Measures included bowling performance (ball speed, accuracy and run-up speeds), physical characteristics (global positioning system monitoring and counter-movement jump height), physiological (heart rate, core temperature, skin temperature and sweat loss), biochemical (serum concentrations of damage, stress and inflammation) and perceptual variables (perceived exertion and thermal sensation). Mean ball speed (114.5±7.1 vs. 114.1±7.2 km · h−1; P = 0.63; d = 0.09), accuracy (43.1±10.6 vs. 44.2±12.5 AU; P = 0.76; d = 0.14) and total run-up speed (19.1±4.1 vs. 19.3±3.8 km · h−1; P = 0.66; d = 0.06) did not differ between pre-cooling and control respectively; however 20-m sprint speed between overs was 5.9±7.3% greater at Over 4 after pre-cooling (P = 0.03; d = 0.75). Pre-cooling reduced skin temperature after the intervention period (P = 0.006; d = 2.28), core temperature and pre-over heart rates throughout (P = 0.01−0.04; d = 0.96−1.74) and sweat loss by 0.4±0.3 kg (P = 0.01; d = 0.34). Mean rating of perceived exertion and thermal sensation were lower during pre-cooling trials (P = 0.004−0.03; d = 0.77−3.13). Despite no observed improvement in bowling performance, pre-cooling maintained between-over sprint speeds and blunted physiological and perceptual demands to ease the thermoregulatory demands of medium-fast bowling in hot conditions.

Effects of mixed-method cooling on recovery of medium-fast bowling performance in hot conditions on consecutive days

This investigation examined physiological and performance effects of cooling on recovery of medium-fast bowlers in the heat. Eight, medium-fast bowlers completed two randomised trials, involving two sessions completed on consecutive days (Session 1: 10-overs and Session 2: 4-overs) in 31 ± 3°C and 55 ± 17% relative humidity. Recovery interventions were administered for 20 min (mixed-method cooling vs. control) after Session 1. Measures included bowling performance (ball speed, accuracy, run-up speeds), physical demands (global positioning system, counter-movement jump), physiological (heart rate, core temperature, skin temperature, sweat loss), biochemical (creatine kinase, C-reactive protein) and perceptual variables (perceived exertion, thermal sensation, muscle soreness). Mean ball speed was higher after cooling in Session 2 (118.9 ± 8.1 vs. 115.5 ± 8.6 km · h−1; P = 0.001; d = 0.67), reducing declines in ball speed between sessions (0.24 vs. −3.18 km · h−1; P = 0.03; d = 1.80). Large effects indicated higher accuracy in Session 2 after cooling (46.0 ± 11.2 vs. 39.4 ± 8.6 arbitrary units [AU]; P = 0.13; d = 0.93) without affecting total run-up speed (19.0 ± 3.1 vs. 19.0 ± 2.5 km · h−1; P = 0.97; d = 0.01). Cooling reduced core temperature, skin temperature and thermal sensation throughout the intervention (P = 0.001–0.05; d = 1.31–5.78) and attenuated creatine kinase (P = 0.04; d = 0.56) and muscle soreness at 24-h (P = 0.03; d = 2.05). Accordingly, mixed-method cooling can reduce thermal strain after a 10-over spell and improve markers of muscular damage and discomfort alongside maintained medium-fast bowling performance on consecutive days in hot conditions.

A hardware virtualization-based component sandboxing architecture

Modern applications comprise multiple components, such as browser plug-ins, often of unknown provenance and quality. Statistics show that failure of such components accounts for a high percentage of software faults. Enabling isolation of such fine-grained components is therefore necessary to increase the robustness and resilience of security-critical and safety-critical computer systems. In this paper, we evaluate whether such fine-grained components can be sandboxed through the use of the hardware virtualization support available in modern Intel and AMD processors. We compare the performance and functionality of such an approach to two previous software based approaches. The results demonstrate that hardware isolation minimizes the difficulties encountered with software based approaches, while also reducing the size of the trusted computing base, thus increasing confidence in the solution's correctness. We also show that our relatively simple implementation has equivalent run-time performance, with overheads of less than 34%, does not require custom tool chains and provides enhanced functionality over software-only approaches, confirming that hardware virtualization technology is a viable mechanism for fine-grained component isolation.

Briefing: Limit states design of railway concrete sleepers

Recently updated information has raised a concern over not only the existing cost-ineffective design method but also the unrealistic analysis mode of railroad prestressed concrete sleepers. Because of the deficient knowledge in the past, railway civil engineers have been mostly aware of the over-conservative design methods for structural components in any railway track, which rely on allowable stresses and material strength reductions. Based on a number of proven experiments and field data, it is believed that the concrete sleepers which complied with the allowable stress concept possess unduly untapped fracture toughness. A collaborative research project run by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Railway Engineering and Technologies (RailCRC) was initiated to ascertain the reserved capacity of Australian railway prestressed concrete sleepers designed using the existing design code. The findings have led to the development of a new limit states design concept. This briefing highlights the conventional and the new limit states design philosophies and their implication to both the railway and the public community.

Mixed convection over a horizontal plate with streamwise non-uniform surface temperature distribution

Numerical investigation on mixed convection of a two-dimensional incompressible laminar flow over a horizontal flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal distribution of surface temperature has been performed for different values of Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature for constant Prandtl number and amplitude of periodic temperature. Finite element method adapted to rectangular non-uniform mesh elements by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm basis numerical scheme has been employed. The investigating parameters are the Rayleigh number, the Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature. The effect of variation of individual investigating parameters on mixed convection flow characteristics has been studied to observe the hydrodynamic and thermal behavior for while keeping the other parameters constant. The fluid considered in this study is air with Prandtl number 0.72. The results are obtained for the Rayleigh number range of 102 to 104, Reynolds number ranging from 1 to 100 and the frequency of periodic temperature from 1 to 5. Isotherms, streamlines, average and local Nusselt numbers are presented to show the effect of the different values of aforementioned investigating parameters on fluid flow and heat transfer.

Perceptions of over-accommodation used by nurses in communication with the elderly

The aim of the study was to determine how aspects of communication between nurses and the elderly were perceived by elderly people, future nurses, and uninvolved observers. Respondents (elderly women and nursing and psychology students) rated videotapes of interactions between a nurse and an elderly woman on three dimensions: patronizing, status, and solidarity. Three communication strategies and their combinations were represented in the vignettes. Because the strategies presented were perceived as patronizing by all three groups, no group effect was found for the patronizing dimension. The results show clear group differences particularly between the nursing students and the elderly, with the elderly rating many of the strategies more positively than did the nursing students. The results are discussed in relation to previous evaluations of overaccommodation, and implications of the different perceptions are considered.

A reliable real-time transport protocol for control systems over wireless networks

Deploying networked control systems (NCSs) over wireless networks is becoming more and more popular. However, the widely-used transport layer protocols, Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and User Datagram Protocol (UDP), are not designed for real-time applications. Therefore, they may not be suitable for many NCS application scenarios because of their limitations on reliability and/or delay performance, which real-control systems concern. Considering a typical type of NCSs with periodic and sporadic real-time traffic, this paper proposes a highly reliable transport layer protocol featuring a packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism and a prioritized transmission mechanism. The packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism is designed to improve the reliability of all traffic flows. And the prioritized transmission mechanism offers differentiated services for periodic and sporadic flows. Simulation results show that the proposed protocol has better reliability than UDP and improved delay performance than TCP over wireless networks, particularly when channel errors and congestions occur.

Shear thinning and shear thickening non-Newtonian confined fluid flow over rotating cylinder

In present work, numerical solution is performed to study the confined flow of power-law non Newtonian fluids over a rotating cylinder. The main purpose is to evaluate drag and thermal coefficients as functions of the related governing dimensionless parameters, namely, power-law index (0.5 ≤ n ≤ 1.4), dimensionless rotational velocity (0 ≤ α ≤ 6) and the Reynolds number (100 ≤ Re ≤ 500). Over the range of Reynolds number, the flow is known to be steady. Results denoted that the increment of power law index and rotational velocity increases the drag coefficient due to momentum diffusivity improvement which is responsible for low rate of heat transfer, because the thicker the boundary layer, the lower the heat transfer is implemented.

Detecting conversing groups of chatters : a model, algorithms, and tests

Chatrooms, for example Internet Relay Chat, are generally multi-user, multi-channel and multiserver chat-systems which run over the Internet and provide a protocol for real-time text-based conferencing between users all over the world. While a well-trained human observer is able to understand who is chatting with whom, there are no efficient and accurate automated tools to determine the groups of users conversing with each other. A precursor to analysing evolving cyber-social phenomena is to first determine what the conversations are and which groups of chatters are involved in each conversation. We consider this problem in this paper. We propose an algorithm to discover all groups of users that are engaged in conversation. Our algorithms are based on a statistical model of a chatroom that is founded on our experience with real chatrooms. Our approach does not require any semantic analysis of the conversations, rather it is based purely on the statistical information contained in the sequence of posts. We improve the accuracy by applying some graph algorithms to clean the statistical information. We present some experimental results which indicate that one can automatically determine the conversing groups in a chatroom, purely on the basis of statistical analysis.

Disproportionate over-representation of Indigenous students in New South Wales government special schools

A significant gap exists in the Australian research literature on the disproportionate over-representation of minority groups in special education. The aim of this paper is to make a contribution to the research evidence-base by sketching an outline of the issue as it presents in Australia’s largest education system in the state of New South Wales. Findings from this research show that Indigenous students are equally represented in special schools enrolling students with autism, physical, sensory, and intellectual disabilities, but significantly over-represented in special schools enrolling students under the categories of emotional disturbance, behaviour disorder and juvenile detention. Factors that might influence the disproportionate over-representation of Indigenous children and young people are discussed, and based on these observations, some practical implications for policy and practice are provided.

Towards a structured understanding of caregivers’ safety behaviour in the domestic and driveway setting

Slow speed run-overs represent a major cause of injury and death among Australian children, with higher rates of incidents being reported in Queensland than in the remaining Australian states. Yet, little attention has been given to how caregivers develop their safety behaviour in and around the driveway setting. To address this gap, the current study aimed to develop a conceptual model of driveway child safety behaviours among caregivers of children aged five years or younger. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 caregivers (25 females/1 male, mean age, 33.24 year) from rural and metropolitan Queensland. To enable a comparison and validation of findings from the driveway, the study analysed both driveway and domestic safety behaviours. Domestic safety behaviours were categorised and validated against driveway safety behaviours, uncovering a process of risk appraisal and safety behaviour that was applicable in both settings (the Safety System Model). However, noteworthy differences between the domestic and driveway setting were uncovered. Unlike in the domestic setting, driveway risks were perceived as shifting according the presence of moving vehicles, which resulted in inconsistent safety behaviours. While the findings require further validation, they have implications for the design and implementation of driveway run-over interventions.