A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Crisis preparedness of construction companies

In high-risk industries, companies with well-conceived crisis management plans are at a commercial advantage. While there is some understanding of the risk management practices of construction companies, there is little insight into their crisis preparedness. This paper presents the findings of exploratory research that investigated this issue. Using a diagnostic model of crisis preparedness that has been developed and tested across a broad range of industries, it concludes that if the sample surveyed is typical, then corporate philosophies in construction companies do not support crisis management activities. Furthermore, crisis planning is rudimentary and undertaken in an insular, informal, fragmented fashion, supported by few resources and little strategic guidance. Consequently, many construction companies will have an inadequate understanding of their crisis exposure, of how to cope with crises when they happen, and of how to learn and recover from their aftermath.

Ethical review in creative industries and other practice-based research

The processes used in Australian universities for reviewing the ethics of research projects are based on the traditions of research and practice from the medical and health sciences. The national guidelines for ethical conduct in research are heavily based on presumptions that the researcher–participant relationship is similar to a doctor–patient relationship. The National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council and Australian Vice-Chancellors’ Committee have made a laudable effort to fix this problem by releasing the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research in 2007, to replace the 1999 National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Research Involving Humans. The new statement better encompasses the needs of the humanities, social sciences and creative industries. However, this paper argues that the revised National Statement and ethical review processes within universities still do not fully encompass the definitions of ‘research’ and the requirements, traditions, codes of practice and standards of the humanities, social sciences and creative industries. The paper argues that scholars within these disciplines often lack the language to articulate their modes of practice and risk management strategies to university-level ethics committees. As a consequence, scholars from these disciplines may find their research is delayed or stymied. The paper focuses on creative industries researchers, and explores the issues that they face in managing the ethical review process, particularly when engaging in practice-based research. Although the focus is on the creative industries, the issues are relevant to most fields in the humanities and social sciences.

Towards testing a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). As background to this challenge, a brief review is given of current practice in the selection of major public sector infrastructure in Australia, along with a review of the related literature concerning the Multi-Attribute Utility Approach (MAUA) and the effect of MAUA on the role of risk management in procurement selection. To contribute towards addressing the key weaknesses of MAUA, a new first-order procurement decision making model is mentioned. A brief summary is also given of the research method and hypothesis used to test and develop the new procurement model and which uses competition as the dependent variable and as a proxy for VfM. The hypothesis is given as follows: When the actual procurement mode matches the theoretical/predicted procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match optimum competition (based on actual prevailing capacity vis-à-vis the theoretical/predicted procurement mode) and subject to efficient tendering. The aim of this paper is to report on progress towards testing this hypothesis in terms of an analysis of two of the four data components in the hypothesis. That is, actual procurement and actual competition across 87 road and health major public sector projects in Australia. In conclusion, it is noted that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seen a significant increase in competition in public sector major road and health infrastructure and if any imperfections in procurement and/or tendering are discernible, then this would create the opportunity, through the deployment of economic principles embedded in the new procurement model and/or adjustments in tendering, to maintain some of this higher level post-GFC competition throughout the next business cycle/upturn in demand including private sector demand. Finally, the paper previews the next steps in the research with regard to collection and analysis of data concerning theoretical/predicted procurement and optimum competition.

Editorial : advancing innovation in accounting research

We live in uncertain times. The sub-prime crisis that commenced in the U.S. in 2007, the global economic crisis that followed, and the recent sovereign debt crisis in various European countries have led to ongoing instability in global financial markets that continues to receive daily media attention. These uncertain times create enormous opportunities for researchers across many disciplines to research capital markets and business practices. From an accounting perspective, accounting regulators have been active in developing new standards to address risk management issues arising from the crises and have continued to develop and refine financial reporting standards. With the adoption of, or transition to international financial reporting standards (IFRS) in many countries, the globalisation of financial reporting standards is close to becoming a reality. However, doubts still remain about whether the IFRS will lead to any real long-term improvement in financial reporting and transparency (see Sunder, 2011)...

Effective health communication in the mining industry

Historically, occupational health and safety has primarily presented as attempts to create a safer work environment for employees. The mining industry carries health and safety risks, often greater than other occupations. Whilst the mining industry is regulated by stringent workplace health and safety regulations, the very nature of the work and environmental influences expose employees to a greater number of injury risk factors than many other industries. The application of risk management techniques has resulted in a substantial decline in injury rates observed for mining operations in developed countries (Donoghue, 2004). This essential focus can be complemented by a more comprehensive approach to occupational health and safety that also supports the design and delivery of proactive health promotion programs...

A Bayesian‐Markov process for reliability prediction

Accurate reliability prediction for large-scale, long lived engineering is a crucial foundation for effective asset risk management and optimal maintenance decision making. However, a lack of failure data for assets that fail infrequently, and changing operational conditions over long periods of time, make accurate reliability prediction for such assets very challenging. To address this issue, we present a Bayesian-Marko best approach to reliability prediction using prior knowledge and condition monitoring data. In this approach, the Bayesian theory is used to incorporate prior information about failure probabilities and current information about asset health to make statistical inferences, while Markov chains are used to update and predict the health of assets based on condition monitoring data. The prior information can be supplied by domain experts, extracted from previous comparable cases or derived from basic engineering principles. Our approach differs from existing hybrid Bayesian models which are normally used to update the parameter estimation of a given distribution such as the Weibull-Bayesian distribution or the transition probabilities of a Markov chain. Instead, our new approach can be used to update predictions of failure probabilities when failure data are sparse or nonexistent, as is often the case for large-scale long-lived engineering assets.

Criminology and genetically modified food

Genetically modified or engineered foods are produced from rapidly expanding technologies that have sparked international debates and concerns about health and safety. These concerns focus on the potential dangers to human health, the risks of genetic pollution, and the demise of alternative farming techniques as well as biopiracy and economic exploitation by large private corporations. This article discusses the findings of the world's first Royal Commission on Genetic Modification conducted in New Zealand and reveals that there are potential social, ecological and economic risks created by genetically modified foods that require closer criminological scrutiny. As contemporary criminological discourses continue to push new boundaries in areas of crimes of the economy, environmental pollution, risk management, governance and globalization, the potential concerns posed by genetically modified foods creates fertile ground for criminological scholarship and activism.

Decision support for the safe design and operation of unmanned aircraft systems

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) describe a diverse range of aircraft that are operated without a human pilot on-board. Unmanned aircraft range from small rotorcraft, which can fit in the palm of your hand, through to fixed wing aircraft comparable in size to that of a commercial passenger jet. The absence of a pilot on-board allows these aircraft to be developed with unique performance capabilities facilitating a wide range of applications in surveillance, environmental management, agriculture, defence, and search and rescue. However, regulations relating to the safe design and operation of UAS first need to be developed before the many potential benefits from these applications can be realised. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a Risk Management Process (RMP) should support all civil aviation policy and rulemaking activities (ICAO 2009). The RMP is described in International standard, ISO 31000:2009 (ISO, 2009a). This standard is intentionally generic and high-level, providing limited guidance on how it can be effectively applied to complex socio-technical decision problems such as the development of regulations for UAS. Through the application of principles and tools drawn from systems philosophy and systems engineering, this thesis explores how the RMP can be effectively applied to support the development of safety regulations for UAS. A sound systems-theoretic foundation for the RMP is presented in this thesis. Using the case-study scenario of a UAS operation over an inhabited area and through the novel application of principles drawn from general systems modelling philosophy, a consolidated framework of the definitions of the concepts of: safe, risk and hazard is made. The framework is novel in that it facilitates the representation of broader subjective factors in an assessment of the safety of a system; describes the issues associated with the specification of a system-boundary; makes explicit the hierarchical nature of the relationship between the concepts and the subsequent constraints that exist between them; and can be evaluated using a range of analytic or deliberative modelling techniques. Following the general sequence of the RMP, the thesis explores the issues associated with the quantified specification of safety criteria for UAS. A novel risk analysis tool is presented. In contrast to existing risk tools, the analysis tool presented in this thesis quantifiably characterises both the societal and individual risk of UAS operations as a function of the flight path of the aircraft. A novel structuring of the risk evaluation and risk treatment decision processes is then proposed. The structuring is achieved through the application of the Decision Support Problem Technique; a modelling approach that has been previously used to effectively model complex engineering design processes and to support decision-making in relation to airspace design. The final contribution made by this thesis is in the development of an airworthiness regulatory framework for civil UAS. A novel "airworthiness certification matrix" is proposed as a basis for the definition of UAS "Part 21" regulations. The outcome airworthiness certification matrix provides a flexible, systematic and justifiable method for promulgating airworthiness regulations for UAS. In addition, an approach for deriving "Part 1309" regulations for UAS is presented. In contrast to existing approaches, the approach presented in this thesis facilitates a traceable and objective tailoring of system-level reliability requirements across the diverse range of UAS operations. The significance of the research contained in this thesis is clearly demonstrated by its practical real world outcomes. Industry regulatory development groups and the Civil Aviation Safety Authority have endorsed the proposed airworthiness certification matrix. The risk models have also been used to support research undertaken by the Australian Department of Defence. Ultimately, it is hoped that the outcomes from this research will play a significant part in the shaping of regulations for civil UAS, here in Australia and around the world.

The enterprise information security policy as a strategic business policy within the corporate strategic plan (extended abstract)

Information security has been recognized as a core requirement for corporate governance that is expected to facilitate not only the management of risks, but also as a corporate enabler that supports and contributes to the sustainability of organizational operations. In implementing information security, the enterprise information security policy is the set of principles and strategies that guide the course of action for the security activities and may be represented as a brief statement that defines program goals and sets information security and risk requirements. The enterprise information security policy (alternatively referred to as security policy in this paper) that represents the meta-policy of information security is an element of corporate ICT governance and is derived from the strategic requirements for risk management and corporate governance. Consistent alignment between the security policy and the other corporate business policies and strategies has to be maintained if information security is to be implemented according to evolving business objectives. This alignment may be facilitated by managing security policy alongside other corporate business policies within the strategic management cycle. There are however limitations in current approaches for developing and managing the security policy to facilitate consistent strategic alignment. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for security policy management by presenting propositions to positively affect security policy alignment with business policies and prescribing a security policy management approach that expounds on the propositions.

Nonprofit Directors' and Officers' Insurance

In the present economic climate it is easy to get carried away by the negative aspects of the rationalisation and review process which has taken place. As a person considering an offer to take up office with a non-profit organisation or as a person already holding such a position, one way of dealing with the increased exposure to liability may be to refuse the offer or resign from your position. Although this is a legitimate risk management tool (and appropriate in some circumstances), it is essential to the recovery of the economy that the "close up shop mentality" does not prevail. Although regulation of the business community and the community in general and enforcement of those regulations is increasing, the legal framework in which directors, officers and committee members of non-profit organisations operate has not substantially changed in recent times. It is necessary to face up to liability exposures (many of which have existed for centuries) and take steps to manage those exposures in order to carry out the objects of the organisation you serve and which in turn serves the community.

Predicting deadline tansgressions using event logs

Effective risk management is crucial for any organisation. One of its key steps is risk identification, but few tools exist to support this process. Here we present a method for the automatic discovery of a particular type of process-related risk, the danger of deadline transgressions or overruns, based on the analysis of event logs. We define a set of time-related process risk indicators, i.e., patterns observable in event logs that highlight the likelihood of an overrun, and then show how instances of these patterns can be identified automatically using statistical principles. To demonstrate its feasibility, the approach has been implemented as a plug-in module to the process mining framework ProM and tested using an event log from a Dutch financial institution.