Responding to climate change as a transformative stressor through metro-regional planning

This paper characterises climate change as a “transformative stressor”. It argues that institutional change will become increasingly necessary as institutions seek to reorientate governance frameworks to better manage the transformative stresses created by climate change in urban environments. Urban and metropolitan planning regimes are identified as central institutions in addressing this challenge. The operationalisation of climate adaptation is identified as a central tenet of a comprehensive urban response to the transformative stresses that climate change is predicted to create. Operationalisation refers to climate adaptation becoming incorporated, codified and implemented as a central tenet of urban planning governance. This paper has three purposes. First, it examines conceptual perspectives on the role of transformative stressors in compelling institutional change. Second, it establishes a conceptual approach that characterises climate change as a transformative stressor requiring institutional change within planning frameworks. Third, it reports emergent results and analysis from an empirical inquiry which examines how the metro-regional planning regime of Southeast Queensland has responded to climate change as a transformative stressor via institutional change and the operationalisation of climate adaptation.

Review : "Spatial planning and climate change" by Elizabeth Wilson and Jake Piper

This timely and thorough book seeks to provide evidence-based assessments of ways in which spatial planning may develop and deliver new strategies for addressing both the causes and impacts of climate change. The authors state that much of the analysis is informed by experiences and learning from their own involvements with climate change projects. The book aims to be relevant to a wide audience and nominates its intended readership to include planning practitioners, scholars, post-graduate students of built environment courses, politicians and the ‘interested’ public. In this regard, the authors skilfully deliver with a comprehensive and accessible dissemination of the nexus between spatial planning and climate change...

Responding to a transformative stressor : climate change and the institutional governance of Australian cities

This paper understands climate change as a transformative stressor that will prompt responses from institutional governance frameworks in Australian cities. A transformative stressor is characterised as a chronic large-scale phenomenon which triggers a process of institutional change whereby institutions seek to reorientate their activities to better manage the social, economic and environmental impacts created by the transformative dynamic. It is posited that institutional change will be required as Australian metropolitan institutional governance frameworks seek to manage climate change effects in urban environments. It is argued that improved operationalisation of adaptation is required as part of a comprehensive urban response to the transformative stresses climate change and its effects are predicted to create in Australian cities. The operationalisation of adaptation refers to adaptation becoming incorporated, codified and implemented as a central principle of metro-regional planning governance. This paper has three key purposes. First, it examines theoretical and conceptual understandings of the role of transformative stressors in compelling institutional change within urban settings. Second, it establishes a conceptual approach that understands climate change as a transformative stressor requiring institutional change within the metropolitan planning frameworks of Australia's cities. Third, it offers early results and conclusions from an empirical investigation into the current prospects for operationalisation of climate adaptation in planning programs within Southeast Queensland (SEQ) via changes to institutional governance. A significant emerging conclusion is that early climate stresses appear not to be leading to episodic institutional change in the metropolitan planning frameworks of SEQ.

Operationalising climate adaptation through institutional change : conceptual and empirical insights

Adaptation is increasingly understood as a necessary response in respect of climate change impacts on urban settlements. Australia is heavily urbanised and climate change is likely to impact severely on its urban environments. Accordingly, climate adaptation must become a key component of urban management. This paper is part of a wider project and reports early insights into the problem of how adaptation may be institutionally operationalised within a planning regime. In this instance, the operationalisation of adaptation refers to adaptation becoming incorporated, codified and implemented as a central principle of planning governance. This paper has three key purposes: first, to set out a conceptual approach to climate adaptation as an institutional challenge; second, to identify the intersection of this problem with planning; third, to report on an on-going empirical investigation in Southeast Queensland (SEQ). Informed by key social scientific theories of institutionalism, this paper develops a conceptual framework that understands the metro-regional planning system of SEQ as an institutional regime capable of undergoing a process of change to respond to the adaptation imperative. It is posited that the success or failure of the SEQ regime’s response to the adaptation imperative is contingent on its ability to undergo institutional change. A capacity for change in this regard is understood to be subject to the influence of various internal and external barriers and pathways that promote or hinder processes of institutional change. Specific attention is paid to the role of ‘storylines’ in facilitating or blocking institutional change.

Climate change adaptation in urban systems : strategies for planning regimes

Adaptation is increasingly being viewed as a necessary response tool in respect of climate change effects. Though the subject of significant scholarly and professional attention, adaptation still continues to lag behind mitigation in the climate change discourse. However, this situation looks likely to change over the coming years due to a increasing scientific acceptance that certain climate change effects are now inevitable. The purpose of this research is to illustrate, consider and demonstrate how urban planning regimes can use some of their professional tools to develop adaptation strategies and interventions in urban systems. These tools include plan-making, development management, urban design and place-making. Urban systems contribute disproportionately to climate change and will also likely suffer considerably from the resulting effects. Moreover, the majority of the world’s population is now urbanised, suggesting that adaptation will be crucial in order to develop urban systems that are resilient to climate change effects. Informed by a reflexive, qualitative methodology, this paper offers an informed understanding and illustration of adaptation as a climate change response, its use in urban systems and some of the roles and strategies that planning may take in developing and implementing urban adaptation. It concludes that urban planning regimes can have key roles in adapting urban systems to numerous climate change effects.

The Rise of the BASIC Group Within the International Climate Regime : The Challenge of Ensuring Equitable Mitigation Obligations

The chapter examines the current emission reduction obligations within the climate regime. It looks at the formation and rise of the BASIC negotiation group within the international climate COP negotiations and examines the role that BASIC nations are now playing shaping international mitigation policy.

Climate variability over the last 35,000 years recorded in marine and terrestrial archives in the Australian region : an OZ-INTIMATE compilation

The Australian region spans some 60° of latitude and 50° of longitude and displays considerable regional climate variability both today and during the Late Quaternary. A synthesis of marine and terrestrial climate records, combining findings from the Southern Ocean, temperate, tropical and arid zones, identifies a complex response of climate proxies to a background of changing boundary conditions over the last 35,000 years. Climate drivers include the seasonal timing of insolation, greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, sea level rise and ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. Our compilation finds few climatic events that could be used to construct a climate event stratigraphy for the entire region, limiting the usefulness of this approach. Instead we have taken a spatial approach, looking to discern the patterns of change across the continent. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region.

Projecting the trend in the Canadian gender wage gap 2001-2031: Will an increase in female education acquisition and commitment be enough?

The paper projects the gender wage gap for 25-64 year-olds in Canada over the period 2001-2031. The empirical analysis uses the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics together with Statistics Canada demographic projections. The methodology combines the population projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of human capital skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The projections suggest continued gender wage convergence produced by changing skills characteristics. However, a substantial pay gap will remain in 2031.

Endotoxins in indoor air and settled dust in primary schools in a subtropical climate

Endotoxins can significantly affect the air quality in school environments. However, there is currently no reliable method for the measurement of endotoxins and there is a lack of reference values for endotoxin concentrations to aid in the interpretation of measurement results in school settings. We benchmarked the “baseline” range of endotoxin concentration in indoor air, together with endotoxin load in floor dust, and evaluated the correlation between endotoxin levels in indoor air and settled dust, as well as the effects of temperature and humidity on these levels in subtropical school settings. Bayesian hierarchical modeling indicated that the concentration in indoor air and the load in floor dust were generally (<95th percentile) < 13 EU/m3 and < 24,570 EU/m2, respectively. Exceeding these levels would indicate abnormal sources of endotoxins in the school environment, and the need for further investigation. Metaregression indicated no relationship between endotoxin concentration and load, which points to the necessity for measuring endotoxin levels in both the air and settled dust. Temperature increases were associated with lower concentrations in indoor air and higher loads in floor dust. Higher levels of humidity may be associated with lower airborne endotoxin concentrations.

Pre-crash traffic flow trend analysis on motorways

Crashes on motorway contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence reduce crashes will help address congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a Short time window around the time of crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists, and that this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with traffic flow data of one hour prior to the crash using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic flow trends (traffic speed/occupancy time series) revealed that crashes could be clustered with regards of the dominant traffic flow pattern prior to the crash. Using the k-means clustering method allowed the crashes to be clustered based on their flow trends rather than their distance. Four major trends have been found in the clustering results. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation algorithms can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic flow conditions with a sliding window of 60 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

A marine reservoir correction for the Houtman-Abrolhos Archipelago, East Indian Ocean, Western Australia

High-precision analysis using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was performed upon known-age Holocene and modern, pre-bomb coral samples to generate a marine reservoir age correction value (ΔR) for the Houtman-Abrolhos Archipelago (28.7°S, 113.8°E) off the Western Australian coast. The mean ΔR value calculated for the Abrolhos Islands, 54 ± 30 yr (1σ) agrees well with regional ΔR values for Leeuwin Current source waters (N-NW Australia-Java) of 60 ± 38. The Abrolhos Islands show little variation with ΔR values of the northwestern and north Australian coast, underlining the dominance of the more equilibrated western Pacific-derived waters of the Leeuwin Current over local upwelling. The Abrolhos Islands ΔR values have remained stable over the last 2896 yr cal BP, being also attributed to the Leeuwin Current and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal during this period. Expected future trends will be a strengthening of the teleconnection of the Abrolhos Islands to the climatic patterns of the equatorial Pacific via enhanced ENSO and global warming activity strengthening the Leeuwin Current. The possible effect upon the trend of future ΔR values may be to maintain similar values and an increase in stability. However, warming trends of global climate change may cause increasing dissimilarity of ΔR values due to the effects of increasing heat stress upon lower-latitude coral communities.

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation : An incremental approach to disaster risk management in Australia

In this paper we argue that rationalist ‘predict then act’ approaches to disaster risk management (DRM) policy promote unrealistic public expectations of DRM provisions, the avoidance of decision making by political elites, an over-reliance on technical expertise and engineering solutions to reducing exposure to natural events, and a reactive approach to DRM overall. We propose an alternative incrementalist approach that focuses on managing uncertainties rather than reducing them and building resilience not simply through the reduction of hazard exposure, but also through the ongoing reduction of community vulnerability, the explicit consideration of normative priorities, and more effective community engagement in climate risk debates.

Monotonous trend estimation of deck displacement for automatic landing of rotorcraft UAVs

This paper presents a novel and practical procedure for estimating the mean deck height to assist in automatic landing operations of a Rotorcraft Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) in harsh sea environments. A modified Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is outlined to deal with real-time observations of deck displacement, which involves developing an appropriate dynamic model to approach real deck motion with parameters identified through implementing the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. The model order is specified using a proper order-selection criterion based on minimizing the summation of accumulated estimation errors. In addition, a feasible threshold criterion is proposed to separate the dominant components of deck displacement, which results in an accurate instantaneous estimation of the mean deck position. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed recursive procedure exhibits satisfactory estimation performance when applied to real-time deck displacement measurements, making it well suited for integration into ship-RUAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Changes to airborne pollen counts across Europe

A progressive global increase in the burden of allergic diseases has affected the industrialized world over the last half century and has been reported in the literature. The clinical evidence reveals a general increase in both incidence and prevalence of respiratory diseases, such as allergic rhinitis (common hay fever) and asthma. Such phenomena may be related not only to air pollution and changes in lifestyle, but also to an actual increase in airborne quantities of allergenic pollen. Experimental enhancements of carbon dioxide (CO) have demonstrated changes in pollen amount and allergenicity, but this has rarely been shown in the wider environment. The present analysis of a continental-scale pollen data set reveals an increasing trend in the yearly amount of airborne pollen for many taxa in Europe, which is more pronounced in urban than semi-rural/rural areas. Climate change may contribute to these changes, however increased temperatures do not appear to be a major influencing factor. Instead, we suggest the anthropogenic rise of atmospheric CO levels may be influential.

Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Australian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem. The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning, and; 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.