A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Characterizing the signal pattern of a four-cylinder diesel engine using acoustic emission and vibration analysis

Condition monitoring of diesel engines can prevent unpredicted engine failures and the associated consequence. This paper presents an experimental study of the signal characteristics of a 4-cylinder diesel engine under various loading conditions. Acoustic emission, vibration and in-cylinder pressure signals were employed to study the effectiveness of these techniques for condition monitoring and identifying symptoms of incipient failures. An event driven synchronous averaging technique was employed to average the quasi-periodic diesel engine signal in the time domain to eliminate or minimize the effect of engine speed and amplitude variations on the analysis of condition monitoring signal. It was shown that acoustic emission (AE) is a better technique than vibration method for condition monitor of diesel engines due to its ability to produce high quality signals (i.e., excellent signal to noise ratio) in a noisy diesel engine environment. It was found that the peak amplitude of AE RMS signals correlating to the impact-like combustion related events decreases in general due to a more stable mechanical process of the engine as the loading increases. A small shift in the exhaust valve closing time was observed as the engine load increases which indicates a prolong combustion process in the cylinder (to produce more power). On the contrary, peak amplitudes of the AE RMS attributing to fuel injection increase as the loading increases. This can be explained by the increase fuel friction caused by the increase volume flow rate during the injection. Multiple AE pulses during the combustion process were identified in the study, which were generated by the piston rocking motion and the interaction between the piston and the cylinder wall. The piston rocking motion is caused by the non-uniform pressure distribution acting on the piston head as a result of the non-linear combustion process of the engine. The rocking motion ceased when the pressure in the cylinder chamber stabilized.

Experimentally induced diesel engine injector faults and some preliminary acoustic emission signal observations

Diesel engine fuel injector faults can lead to reduced power, increased fuel consumption and greater exhaust emission levels and if left unchecked, can eventually lead to premature engine failure. This paper provides an overview of the Diesel, or compression ignition combustion process, and of the two basic fuel injector nozzle designs used in Diesel engines, namely, the pintle-type and hole-type nozzles. Also described are some common faults associated with these two types of fuel injector nozzles and the techniques previously used to experimentally simulate these faults. This paper also presents a recent experimental campaign undertaken using two different diesel engines whereby various fuel injector nozzle faults were induced into the engines. The first series of tests was undertaken using a turbo-charged 5.9 litre; Cummins Diesel engine whist the second series of tests was undertaken using a naturally aspirated 4 cylinder, 2.216 litre, Perkins Diesel engine. Data corresponding to different injector fault conditions was captured using in-cylinder pressure, and acoustic emission transducers along with both crank-angle encoder and top-dead centre reference signals. Using averaged in-cylinder pressure signals, it was possible to qualify the severity of the faults whilst averaged acoustic emission signals were in turn, used as the basis for wavelets decomposition. Initial observations from this signal decomposition are also presented and discussed.

A study on acoustic emission signal propagation of a small size multi-cylinder diesel engine

Acoustic emission has been found effective in offering earlier fault detection and improving identification capabilities of faults. However, the sensors are inherently uncalibrated. This paper presents a source to sensor paths calibration technique which can lead to diagnosis of faults in a small size multi-cylinder diesel engine. Preliminary analysis of the acoustic emission (AE) signals is outlined, including time domain, time-frequency domain, and the root mean square (RMS) energy. The results reveal how the RMS energy of a source propagates to the adjacent sensors. The findings lead to allocate the source and estimate its inferences to the adjacent sensor, and finally help to diagnose the small size diesel engines by minimising the crosstalk from multiple cylinders.

Mussel-inspired porous SiO2 scaffolds with improved mineralization and cytocompatibility for drug delivery and bone tissue engineering

Porous SiO2 scaffolds with mesopore structure (named as MS scaffolds) have been proposed as suitable for bone tissue engineering due to their excellent drug-delivery ability; however, the mineralization and cytocompatibility of MS scaffolds are far from optimal for bone tissue engineering, and it is also unclear how the delivery of drugs from MS scaffolds affects osteoblastic cells. The aims of the present study were to improve the mineralization and cytocompatibility of MS scaffolds by coating mussel-inspired polydopamine on the pore walls of scaffolds. The effects of polydopamine modification on MS scaffolds was investigated with respect to apatite mineralization and the attachment, proliferation and differentiation of bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs), as was the release profile of the drug dexamethasone (DEX). Our results show that polydopamine can readily coat the pore walls of MS scaffolds and that polydopamine-modified MS scaffolds have a significantly improved apatite-mineralization ability as well as better attachment and proliferation of BMSCs in the scaffolds, compared to controls. Polydopamine modification did not alter the release profile of DEX from MS scaffolds but the sustained delivery of DEX significantly improved alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity of BMSCs in the scaffolds. These results suggest that polydopamine modification is a viable option to enhance the bioactivity of bone tissue engineering scaffolds and, further, that DEX-loaded polydopamine MS scaffolds have potential uses as a release system to enhance the osteogenic properties of bone tissue engineering applications.

New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

Infrared transmission and emission spectroscopic study of selected Chinese palygorskites

Infrared and infrared emission spectroscopy were used to analyze the difference in structure and thermal behavior of two Chinese palygorskites. The position of the main bands identified in the infrared spectra of the palygorskites studied is similar for these two Chinese samples, but there are some differences in their intensity, which is significant. This discrepancy is attributed to various geological environments in different regions and the existence of impurities. The infrared emission spectra clearly show the structural changes and dehydroxylation of the palygorskites when the temperature is raised. The dehydration of the palygorskites is followed by the loss of intensity of the OH stretching vibration bands in the region 3600-3200 cm-1. Dehydroxylation is followed by the decrease in intensity in the bands between 3700 and 3550 cm-1. Dehydration of pure palygorskite was completed by 600 °C. Partial loss of coordinated water was observed at 400 °C. Infrared emission spectroscopy is an effective method to determine the stability of the mineral.

Prediction of structural integrity, robustness and service life using advanced finite element methods

Corrosion is a common phenomenon and critical aspects of steel structural application. It affects the daily design, inspection and maintenance in structural engineering, especially for the heavy and complex industrial applications, where the steel structures are subjected to hash corrosive environments in combination of high working stress condition and often in open field and/or under high temperature production environments. In the paper, it presents the actual engineering application of advanced finite element methods in the predication of the structural integrity and robustness at a designed service life for the furnaces of alumina production, which was operated in the high temperature, corrosive environments and rotating with high working stress condition.

Biomaterial scaffolds in cartilage-subchondral bone defects influencing the repair of autologous articular cartilage transplants

The repair of articular cartilage typically involves the repair of cartilage-subchondral bone tissue defects. Although various bioactive materials have been used to repair bone defects, how these bioactive materials in subchondral bone defects influence the repair of autologous cartilage transplant remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of different subchondral biomaterial scaffolds on the repair of autologous cartilage transplant in a sheep model. Cylindrical cartilage-subchondral bone defects were created in the right femoral knee joint of each sheep. The subchondral bone defects were implanted with hydroxyapatite-β-tricalcium phosphate (HA-TCP), poly lactic-glycolic acid (PLGA)-HA-TCP dual-layered composite scaffolds (PLGA/HA-TCP scaffolds), or autologous bone chips. The autologous cartilage layer was placed on top of the subchondral materials. After three months, the effect of different subchondral scaffolds on the repair of autologous cartilage transplant was systematically studied by investigating the mechanical strength, structural integration and histological responses. The results showed that the transplanted cartilage layer supported by HA-TCP scaffolds had better structural integration and higher mechanical strength than that supported by PLGA/HA-TCP scaffolds. Furthermore, HA-TCP supported cartilage showed higher expression of acid mucosubstances and glycol-amino-glycan (GAG) contents than that supported by PLGA/HA-TCP scaffolds. Our results suggested that the physicochemical properties, including the inherent mechanical strength and material chemistry of the scaffolds, play important roles in influencing the repair of autologous cartilage transplants. The study may provide useful information for the design and selection of proper subchondral biomaterials to support the repair of both subchondral bone and cartilage defects.

Multicultural training experiences as predictors of psychology students’ cultural competence

The psychologists in the western world, including Australia, are required to be culturally competent due to the cultural diversity of these societies. Previous studies conducted in North America and Europe have found multicultural teaching, clinical experience with culturally diverse clients, and discussion of multicultural counselling issues in supervision to be related to the practitioner’s cultural competency. The present study examined factors contributing to trainee psychologists’ perceived level of cultural competence. It was hypothesised that multicultural teaching, clinical experience and supervision would be related to students’ level of cultural competence. One hundred and twenty seven postgraduate clinical psychology students completed an online survey battery that included demographic information, a social desirability measure, and the Multicultural Mental Health Awareness Scale (Khawaja, Gomez & Turner, 2009). This hypothesis was partially supported. Clinical experience and supervision focusing on multicultural issues were found to be related to participants’ perceived cultural competence, however, multicultural teaching was not. These results provide insight into how universities around Australia can facilitate future psychologists’ competence in working with clients from different cultural backgrounds.

Training clinical psychologists : The current situation and a way forward [Guest Editorial]

In the past, training in clinical psychology in Australia and overseas has been dominated by definitions of input— hours of classes or supervision and of specific components. While prospective practitioners have been required to demonstrate the acquisition of generic competencies, satisfaction of these input driven criteria has been required for both accreditation and registration. Ironically, for a discipline that prides itself on requiring empirical bases for practice and communicating those to students (Calhoun, Moras, Pilkonis, & Rehm, 1998), training criteria have been primarily derived from accepted wisdom, rather than from a sound body of data. The situation has been remarkably like that of a treatment establishing standards of fidelity before its effective components are known—an action our profession has correctly criticised in the past (Herbert & Mueser, 1992).

Hypoxia-mimicking mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds with controllable cobalt ion release for bone tissue engineering

Low oxygen pressure (hypoxia) plays an important role in stimulating angiogenesis; there are, however, few studies to prepare hypoxia-mimicking tissue engineering scaffolds. Mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG) has been developed as scaffolds with excellent osteogenic properties for bone regeneration. Ionic cobalt (Co) is established as a chemical inducer of hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α, which induces hypoxia-like response. The aim of this study was to develop hypoxia-mimicking MBG scaffolds by incorporating ionic Co2+ into MBG scaffolds and investigate if the addition of Co2+ ions would induce a cellular hypoxic response in such a tissue engineering scaffold system. The composition, microstructure and mesopore properties (specific surface area, nano-pore volume and nano-pore distribution) of Co-containing MBG (Co-MBG) scaffolds were characterized and the cellular effects of Co on the proliferation, differentiation, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) secretion, HIF-1α expression and bone-related gene expression of human bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) in MBG scaffolds were systematically investigated. The results showed that low amounts of Co (< 5%) incorporated into MBG scaffolds had no significant cytotoxicity and that their incorporation significantly enhanced VEGF protein secretion, HIF-1α expression, and bone-related gene expression in BMSCs, and also that the Co-MBG scaffolds support BMSC attachment and proliferation. The scaffolds maintain a well-ordered mesopore channel structure and high specific surface area and have the capacity to efficiently deliver antibiotics drugs; in fact, the sustained released of ampicillin by Co-MBG scaffolds gives them excellent anti-bacterial properties. Our results indicate that incorporating cobalt ions into MBG scaffolds is a viable option for preparing hypoxia-mimicking tissue engineering scaffolds and significantly enhanced hypoxia function. The hypoxia-mimicking MBG scaffolds have great potential for bone tissue engineering applications by combining enhanced angiogenesis with already existing osteogenic properties.