Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Cochrane review summary for cancer nursing : influenza vaccination in children having chemotherapy for cancer

Background: Children having chemotherapy for cancer are prone to developing influenza infections. Influenza virus infection may lead to hospitalization/prolonged hospitalization, interruption of treatment, and other severe adverse outcomes such as death. Although clinical guidelines recommend children who are being treated for cancer be vaccinated against influenza, evidence supporting this recommendation is unclear.--------- Objectives: The objectives of this review were to (1) assess the efficacy of influenza vaccination in stimulating immunologic response in children with cancer receiving chemotherapy, compared with other control groups; (2) assess the efficacy of influenza vaccination in preventing influenza infection; and (3) establish any adverse effects associated with influenza vaccines in children with cancer.

Validating the functional capacity index : a comparison of predicted versus observed total body scores

Background: The Functional Capacity Index (FCI) was designed to predict physical function 12 months after injury. We report a validation study of the FCI. Methods: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry who consented to the prospective 12-month telephone-administered follow-up study. FCI scores measured at 12 months were compared with those originally predicted. Results: Complete Abbreviated Injury Scale score information was available for 617 individuals, of whom 587 (95%) could be assigned at least one FCI score (range, 1-17). Agreement between the largest predicted FCI and observed FCI score was poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, 0.00-0.10) and explained only 1% of the variability in observed FCI. Using an encompassing model that included all FCI assignments, agreement remained poor ([kappa] = 0.05; 95% confidence interval, -0.02-0.12), and the model explained only 9% of the variability in observed FCI. Conclusion: The predicted functional capacity poorly agrees with actual functional outcomes. Further research should consider including other (noninjury) explanatory factors in predicting FCI at 12 months.

Electronic telephone directory listings : preferred sampling frame for a population-based study of childhood cancer in Australia

PURPOSE: We report our telephone-based system for selecting community control series appropriate for a complete Australia-wide series of Ewing's sarcoma cases. METHODS: We used electronic directory random sampling to select age-matched controls. The sampling has all listed telephone numbers on an up-dated CD-Rom. RESULTS: 95% of 2245 telephone numbers selected were successfully contacted. The mean number of attempts needed was 1.94, 58% answering at the first attempt. On average, we needed 4.5 contacts per control selected. Calls were more likely to be successful (reach a respondent) when made in the evening (except Saturdays). The overall response rate among contacted telephone numbers was 92.8%. Participation rates among female and male respondents were practically the same. The exclusion of unlisted numbers (13.5% of connected households) and unconnected households (3.7%) led to potential selection bias. However, restricting the case series to listed cases only, plus having external information on the direction of potential bias allow meaningful interpretation of our data. CONCLUSION: Sampling from an electronic directory is convenient, economical and simple, and gives a very good yield of eligible subjects compared to other methods.

Social Participation of Community Dwelling Stroke Survivors [Published Abstract: From the Quality of Care and Outcomes Research in Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke Conference 2009]

Disability following a stroke can impose various restrictions on patients’ attempts at participating in life roles. The measurement of social participation, for instance, is important in estimating recovery and assessing quality of care at the community level. Thus, the identification of factors influencing social participation is essential in developing effective measures for promoting the reintegration of stroke survivors into the community. Data were collected from 188 stroke survivors (mean age 71.7 years) 12 months after discharge from a stroke rehabilitation hospital. Of these survivors, 128 (61 %) had suffered a first ever stroke, and 81 (43 %) had a right hemisphere lesion. Most (n = 156, 83 %) were living in their own home, though 32 (17 %) were living in residential care facilities. Path analysis was used to test a hypothesized model of participation restriction which included the direct and indirect effects between social, psychological and physical outcomes and demographic variables. Participation restriction was the dependent variable. Exogenous independent variables were age, functional ability, living arrangement and gender. Endogenous independent variables were depressive symptoms, state self-esteem and social support satisfaction. The path coefficients showed functional ability having the largest direct effect on participation restriction. The results also showed that more depressive symptoms, low state self-esteem, female gender, older age and living in a residential care facility had a direct effect on participation restriction. The explanatory variables accounted for 71% of the variance in explaining participation restriction. Prediction models have empirical and practical applications such as suggesting important factors to be considered in promoting stroke recovery. The findings suggest that interventions offered over the course of rehabilitation should be aimed at improving functional ability and promoting psychological aspects of recovery. These are likely to enhance stroke survivors resume or maximize their social participation so that they may fulfill productive and positive life roles.

Predicting loss and fragmentation of habitat of the vulnerable subtropical rainforest tree Macadamia integrifolia with models developed from compiled ecological data

Habitat models are widely used in ecology, however there are relatively few studies of rare species, primarily because of a paucity of survey records and lack of robust means of assessing accuracy of modelled spatial predictions. We investigated the potential of compiled ecological data in developing habitat models for Macadamia integrifolia, a vulnerable mid-stratum tree endemic to lowland subtropical rainforests of southeast Queensland, Australia. We compared performance of two binomial models—Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Generalised Additive Models (GAM)—with Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models developed from (i) presence records and available absence data and (ii) developed using presence records and background data. The GAM model was the best performer across the range of evaluation measures employed, however all models were assessed as potentially useful for informing in situ conservation of M. integrifolia, A significant loss in the amount of M. integrifolia habitat has occurred (p < 0.05), with only 37% of former habitat (pre-clearing) remaining in 2003. Remnant patches are significantly smaller, have larger edge-to-area ratios and are more isolated from each other compared to pre-clearing configurations (p < 0.05). Whilst the network of suitable habitat patches is still largely intact, there are numerous smaller patches that are more isolated in the contemporary landscape compared with their connectedness before clearing. These results suggest that in situ conservation of M. integrifolia may be best achieved through a landscape approach that considers the relative contribution of small remnant habitat fragments to the species as a whole, as facilitating connectivity among the entire network of habitat patches.

Physical activity and regulation of food intake: current evidence

Objective: The evidence was reviewed on how physical activity could influence the regulation of food intake by either adjusting the sensitivity of appetite control mechanisms or by generating an energy deficit that could adjust the drive to eat. Design: Interventionist and correlational studies that had a significant influence on the relationship between physical activity and food intake were reviewed. Interventionist studies involve a deliberate imposition of physical activity with subsequent monitoring of the eating response. Correlational studies make use of naturally occurring differences in the levels of physical activity (between and within subjects) with simultaneous assessment of energy expenditure and intake. Subjects: Studies using lean, overweight, and obese men and women were included. Results: Only 19% of interventionist studies report an increase in energy intake after exercise; 65% show no change and 16% show a decrease in appetite. Of the correlational studies, approximately half show no relationship between energy expenditure and intake. These data indicate a rather loose coupling between energy expenditure and intake. A common sense view is that exercise is futile as a form of weight control because the energy deficit drives a compensatory increase in food intake. However, evidence shows that this is not generally true. One positive aspect of this is that raising energy expenditure through physical activity (or maintaining an active life style) can cause weight loss or prevent weight gain. A negative feature is that when people become sedentary after a period of high activity, food intake is not “down-regulated” to balance a reduced energy expenditure. Conclusion: Evidence suggests that a high level of physical activity can aid weight control either by improving the matching of food intake to energy expenditure (regulation) or by raising expenditure so that it is difficult for people to eat themselves into a positive energy balance.

Deconstructing neurobiological coordination

Inherent indeterminacy of neurobiological systems has been revealed by research on coordination of multiarticular actions. We consider three important issues that these investigations raise for biomechanical measurement and performance modeling. These issues highlight the role of dynamic systems theory as a platform for integration of motor control and biomechanics in exercise and sports science.

Evolution of vocational rehabilitation competencies in Australia

Over the past decade, there has been growth in the delivery of vocational rehabilitation services globally, as countries seek to control disability-related expenditure, yet there has been minimal research outside the United States on competencies required to work in this area. This study reports on research conducted in Australia to determine current job function and knowledge areas in terms of their importance and frequency of use in the provision of vocational rehabilitation. A survey comprising items from the Rehabilitation Skills Inventory-Amended and International Survey of Disability Management was completed by 149 rehabilitation counselors and items submitted to factor analysis. T-tests and analyses of variance were used to determine differences between scores of importance and frequency and differences in scores based on work setting and professional training. Six factors were identified as important and frequently used: (i) vocational counseling, (ii) professional practice, (iii) personal counseling, (iv) rehabilitation case management, (v) workplace disability case management, and (vi) workplace intervention and program management. Vocational counseling, professional practice and personal counseling were significantly more important and performed more frequently by respondents in vocational rehabilitation settings than those in compensation settings. These same three factors were rated significantly higher in importance and frequency by those with rehabilitation counselor training when compared with those with other training. In conclusion, although ‘traditional’ knowledge and skill areas such as vocational counseling, professional practice, and personal counseling were identified as central to vocational rehabilitation practice in Australian rehabilitation agencies, mean ratings suggest a growing emphasis on knowledge and skills associated with disability management practice.

Exercise intensity influences NEAT in overweight and obese adults

PURPOSE: To determine the effect of acute bouts of moderate- and high-intensity walking exercise on non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) in overweight and obese adults. ---------- METHOD: 16 participants performed a single bout of either moderate-intensity walking exercise (MIE) or high-intensity walking exercise (HIE) on two separate occasions. The MIE consisted of walking for 60 minutes on a motorized treadmill at 6 km.h. The 60-minute HIE session consisted of walking in 5-min intervals at 6 km.h and 10% grade followed by 5-min at 0% grade. NEAT was assessed by accelerometer on three days before, the day of, and three days following the exercise sessions. ---------- RESULTS: There was no significant difference in NEAT vector magnitude (counts.min) between the pre-exercise period (days 1-3) and the exercise day (day 4) for either MIE or HIE protocol. In addition, there was no change in NEAT during the three days following the MIE session, however NEAT increased by 16% on day 7 (post-exercise) compared with exercise day (P = 0.32). However during the post-exercise period following the HIE session, NEAT was increased by 25% on day 7 compared with the exercise day (P = 0.08), and by 30-33% compared with pre-exercise period (day 1, day 2 and day 3); P = 0.03, 0.03, 0.02, respectively. ---------- CONCLUSION: A single bout of either MIE or HIE did not alter NEAT on the exercise day or on the first two days following the exercise session. However, monitoring NEAT on a third day allowed the detection of a 48-h delay in increased NEAT after performing HIE. A longer-term intervention is needed to determine the effect of accumulated exercise sessions over a week on NEAT.

Acute and long-term effects of exercise on appetite control: Is there any benefit for weight control?

Purpose of review: To examine the relationship between energy intake, appetite control and exercise, with particular reference to longer term exercise studies. This approach is necessary when exploring the benefits of exercise for weight control, as changes in body weight and energy intake are variable and reflect diversity in weight loss. Recent findings: Recent evidence indicates that longer term exercise is characterized by a highly variable response in eating behaviour. Individuals display susceptibility or resistance to exercise-induced weight loss, with changes in energy intake playing a key role in determining the degree of weight loss achieved. Marked differences in hunger and energy intake exist between those who are capable of tolerating periods of exercise-induced energy deficit, and those who are not. Exercise-induced weight loss can increase the orexigenic drive in the fasted state, but for some this is offset by improved postprandial satiety signalling. Summary: The biological and behavioural responses to acute and long-term exercise are highly variable, and these responses interact to determine the propensity for weight change. For some people, long-term exercise stimulates compensatory increases in energy intake that attenuate weight loss. However, favourable changes in body composition and health markers still exist in the absence of weight loss. The physiological mechanisms that confer susceptibility to compensatory overconsumption still need to be determined.