Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Dynamics of attacker–defender dyads in Association Football : parameters influencing decision-making

Previous work on pattern-forming dynamics of team sports has investigated sub-phases of basketball and rugby union by focussing on one-versus-one (1v1) attacker-defender dyads. This body of work has identified the role of candidate control parameters, interpersonal distance and relative velocity, in predicting the outcomes of team player interactions. These two control parameters have been described as functioning in a nested relationship where relative velocity between players comes to the fore within a critical range of interpersonal distance. The critical influence of constraints on the intentionality of player behaviour has also been identified through the study of 1v1 attacker-defender dyads. This thesis draws from previous work adopting an ecological dynamics approach, which encompasses both Dynamical Systems Theory and Ecological Psychology concepts, to describe attacker-defender interactions in 1v1 dyads in association football. Twelve male youth association football players (average age 15.3 ± 0.5 yrs) performed as both attackers and defenders in 1v1 dyads in three field positions in an experimental manipulation of the proximity to goal and the role of players. Player and ball motion was tracked using TACTO 8.0 software (Fernandes & Caixinha, 2003) to produce two-dimensional (2D) trajectories of players and the ball on the ground. Significant differences were found for player-to-ball interactions depending on proximity to goal manipulations, indicating how key reference points in the environment such as the location of the goal may act as a constraint that shapes decision-making behaviour. Results also revealed that interpersonal distance and relative velocity alone were insufficient for accurately predicting the outcome of a dyad in association football. Instead, combined values of interpersonal distance, ball-to-defender distance, attacker-to-ball distance, attacker-to-ball relative velocity and relative angles were found to indicate the state of dyad outcomes.

A transition program in first year law : adopting the First Year Curriculum Principles

The First Year Curriculum Principles espouse a student-focused consistent and explicit curriculum, acknowledging diversity and the need to scaffold skills and learning. Commencing law students are no different to other first year students in that they must deal with changes in teaching and learning approaches and expectations. As well as the generic issues of transition, law students must grapple with learning the skills which are necessary for the study of law from the very start of their degree. A transition program at the commencement of a law degree as part of a planned first year curriculum provides an opportunity to introduce students to the study of law, the requisite skills as well as assist with transition to tertiary education.

The transition to school of children with developmental disabilities : views of parents and teachers

The transition from early intervention programs to inclusive school settings presents children with developmental disabilities with a range of social challenges. In Queensland, in the year of transition to school, many children with developmental disabilities attend an Early Childhood Development Program for 2 to 3 days each week and also begin attendance in a mainstream program with the latter increasing to full-time attendance during the year. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected by parent interviews and teacher questionnaires for 62 children participating in the Transition to School Project regarding their perceptions of the success of the transition process and the benefits and challenges of inclusion. Both parents and teachers saw a range of benefits to children from their inclusion in ‘regular’ classrooms, with parents noting the helpfulness of teachers and their support for inclusion. Challenges noted by parents included the school’s lack of preparation for their child’s particular developmental needs especially in terms of the physical environment while teachers reported challenges meeting the needs of these children within the context and resources of the classroom. Parents were more likely than teachers to view the transition as easy. Correlational analyses indicated that teachers were more likely to view the transition as easy when they felt that the child was appropriately placed in a ‘regular’ classroom. Findings from this project can inform the development of effective transition-to-school programs in the early school years for children with developmental disabilities.

Investigation of phenol degradation : True reaction kinetics on fixed film titanium dioxide photocatalyst

This study of photocatalytic oxidation of phenol over titanium dioxide films presents a method for the evaluation of true reaction kinetics. A flat plate reactor was designed for the specific purpose of investigating the influence of various reaction parameters, specifically photocatalytic film thickness, solution flow rate (1–8 l min−1), phenol concentration (20, 40 and 80 ppm), and irradiation intensity (70.6, 57.9, 37.1and 20.4 W m−2), in order to further understand their impact on the reaction kinetics. Special attention was given to the mass transfer phenomena and the influence of film thickness. The kinetics of phenol degradation were investigated with different irradiation levels and initial pollutant concentration. Photocatalytic degradation experiments were performed to evaluate the influence of mass transfer on the reaction and, in addition, the benzoic acid method was applied for the evaluation of mass transfer coefficient. For this study the reactor was modelled as a batch-recycle reactor. A system of equations that accounts for irradiation, mass transfer and reaction rate was developed to describe the photocatalytic process, to fit the experimental data and to obtain kinetic parameters. The rate of phenol photocatalytic oxidation was described by a Langmuir–Hinshelwood type law that included competitive adsorption and degradation of phenol and its by-products. The by-products were modelled through their additive effect on the solution total organic carbon.

Bispectral and trispectral characterization of transition to chaos in the Duffing oscillator

Higher-order spectral (bispectral and trispectral) analyses of numerical solutions of the Duffing equation with a cubic stiffness are used to isolate the coupling between the triads and quartets, respectively, of nonlinearly interacting Fourier components of the system. The Duffing oscillator follows a period-doubling intermittency catastrophic route to chaos. For period-doubled limit cycles, higher-order spectra indicate that both quadratic and cubic nonlinear interactions are important to the dynamics. However, when the Duffing oscillator becomes chaotic, global behavior of the cubic nonlinearity becomes dominant and quadratic nonlinear interactions are weak, while cubic interactions remain strong. As the nonlinearity of the system is increased, the number of excited Fourier components increases, eventually leading to broad-band power spectra for chaos. The corresponding higher-order spectra indicate that although some individual nonlinear interactions weaken as nonlinearity increases, the number of nonlinearly interacting Fourier modes increases. Trispectra indicate that the cubic interactions gradually evolve from encompassing a few quartets of Fourier components for period-1 motion to encompassing many quartets for chaos. For chaos, all the components within the energetic part of the power spectrum are cubically (but not quadratically) coupled to each other.