Fatalism, superstition, religion, and culture : road user beliefs and behaviour in Pakistan

Road traffic crashes have emerged as a major health problem around the world. Road crash fatalities and injuries have been reduced significantly in developed countries, but they are still an issue in low and middle-income countries. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2009) estimates that the death toll from road crashes in low- and middle-income nations is more than 1 million people per year, or about 90% of the global road toll, even though these countries only account for 48% of the world's vehicles. Furthermore, it is estimated that approximately 265,000 people die every year in road crashes in South Asian countries and Pakistan stands out with 41,494 approximately deaths per year. Pakistan has the highest rate of fatalities per 100,000 population in the region and its road crash fatality rate of 25.3 per 100,000 population is more than three times that of Australia's. High numbers of road crashes not only cause pain and suffering to the population at large, but are also a serious drain on the country's economy, which Pakistan can ill-afford. Most studies identify human factors as the main set of contributing factors to road crashes, well ahead of road environment and vehicle factors. In developing countries especially, attention and resources are required in order to improve things such as vehicle roadworthiness and poor road infrastructure. However, attention to human factors is also critical. Human factors which contribute to crashes include high risk behaviours like speeding and drink driving, and neglect of protective behaviours such as helmet wearing and seat belt wearing. Much research has been devoted to the attitudes, beliefs and perceptions which contribute to these behaviours and omissions, in order to develop interventions aimed at increasing safer road use behaviours and thereby reducing crashes. However, less progress has been made in addressing human factors contributing to crashes in developing countries as compared to the many improvements in road environments and vehicle standards, and this is especially true of fatalistic beliefs and behaviours. This is a significant omission, since in different cultures in developing countries there are strong worldviews in which predestination persists as a central idea, i.e. that one's life (and death) and other events have been mapped out and are predetermined. Fatalism refers to a particular way in which people regard the events that occur in their lives, usually expressed as a belief that an individual does not have personal control over circumstances and that their lives are determined through a divine or powerful external agency (Hazen & Ehiri, 2006). These views are at odds with the dominant themes of modern health promotion movements, and present significant challenges for health advocates who aim to avert road crashes and diminish their consequences. The limited literature on fatalism reveals that it is not a simple concept, with religion, culture, superstition, experience, education and degree of perceived control of one's life all being implicated in accounts of fatalism. One distinction in the literature that seems promising is the distinction between empirical and theological fatalism, although there are areas of uncertainty about how well-defined the distinction between these types of fatalism is. Research into road safety in Pakistan is scarce, as is the case for other South Asian countries. From the review of the literature conducted, it is clear that the descriptions given of the different belief systems in developing countries including Pakistan are not entirely helpful for health promotion purposes and that further research is warranted on the influence of fatalism, superstition and other related beliefs in road safety. Based on the information available, a conceptual framework is developed as a means of structuring and focusing the research and analysis. The framework is focused on the influence of fatalism, superstition, religion and culture on beliefs about crashes and road user behaviour. Accordingly, this research aims to provide an understanding of the operation of fatalism and related beliefs in Pakistan to assist in the development and implementation of effective and culturally appropriate interventions. The research examines the influence of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs on risky road use in Pakistan and is guided by three research questions: 1. What are the perceptions of road crash causation in Pakistan, in particular the role of fatalism, superstition, religious and cultural beliefs? 2. How does fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs influence road user behaviour in Pakistan? 3. Do fatalism, superstition, and religious and cultural beliefs work as obstacles to road safety interventions in Pakistan? To address these questions, a qualitative research methodology was developed. The research focused on gathering data through individual in-depth interviewing using a semi-structured interview format. A sample of 30 participants was interviewed in Pakistan in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The participants included policy makers (with responsibility for traffic law), experienced police officers, religious orators, professional drivers (truck, bus and taxi) and general drivers selected through a combination of purposive, criterion and snowball sampling. The transcripts were translated from Urdu and analysed using a thematic analysis approach guided by the conceptual framework. The findings were divided into four areas: attribution of crash causation to fatalism; attribution of road crashes to beliefs about superstition and malicious acts; beliefs about road crash causation linked to popular concepts of religion; and implications for behaviour, safety and enforcement. Fatalism was almost universally evident, and expressed in a number of ways. Fate was used to rationalise fatal crashes using the argument that the people killed were destined to die that day, one way or another. Related to this was the sense of either not being fully in control of the vehicle, or not needing to take safety precautions, because crashes were predestined anyway. A variety of superstitious-based crash attributions and coping methods to deal with road crashes were also found, such as belief in the role of the evil eye in contributing to road crashes and the use of black magic by rivals or enemies as a crash cause. There were also beliefs related to popular conceptions of religion, such as the role of crashes as a test of life or a source of martyrdom. However, superstitions did not appear to be an alternative to religious beliefs. Fate appeared as the 'default attribution' for a crash when all other explanations failed to account for the incident. This pervasive belief was utilised to justify risky road use behaviour and to resist messages about preventive measures. There was a strong religious underpinning to the statement of fatalistic beliefs (this reflects popular conceptions of Islam rather than scholarly interpretations), but also an overlap with superstitious and other culturally and religious-based beliefs which have longer-standing roots in Pakistani culture. A particular issue which is explored in more detail is the way in which these beliefs and their interpretation within Pakistani society contributed to poor police reporting of crashes. The pervasive nature of fatalistic beliefs in Pakistan affects road user behaviour by supporting continued risk taking behaviour on the road, and by interfering with public health messages about behaviours which would reduce the risk of traffic crashes. The widespread influence of these beliefs on the ways that people respond to traffic crashes and the death of family members contribute to low crash reporting rates and to a system which appears difficult to change. Fate also appeared to be a major contributing factor to non-reporting of road crashes. There also appeared to be a relationship between police enforcement and (lack of) awareness of road rules. It also appears likely that beliefs can influence police work, especially in the case of road crash investigation and the development of strategies. It is anticipated that the findings could be used as a blueprint for the design of interventions aimed at influencing broad-spectrum health attitudes and practices among the communities where fatalism is prevalent. The findings have also identified aspects of beliefs that have complex social implications when designing and piloting driver intervention strategies. By understanding attitudes and behaviours related to fatalism, superstition and other related concepts, it should be possible to improve the education of general road users, such that they are less likely to attribute road crashes to chance, fate, or superstition. This study also underscores the understanding of this issue in high echelons of society (e.g., policy makers, senior police officers) as their role is vital in dispelling road users' misconceptions about the risks of road crashes. The promotion of an evidence or scientifically-based approach to road user behaviour and road safety is recommended, along with improved professional education for police and policy makers.

Microscopic cooperative traffic based on NGSIM data

The deployment of new emerging technologies, such as cooperative systems, allows the traffic community to foresee relevant improvements in terms of traffic safety and efficiency. Vehicles are able to communicate on the local traffic state in real time, which could result in an automatic and therefore better reaction to the mechanism of traffic jam formation. An upstream single hop radio broadcast network can improve the perception of each cooperative driver within radio range and hence the traffic stability. The impact of a cooperative law on traffic congestion appearance is investigated, analytically and through simulation. Ngsim field data is used to calibrate the Optimal Velocity with Relative Velocity (OVRV) car following model and the MOBIL lane-changing model is implemented. Assuming that congestion can be triggered either by a perturbation in the instability domain or by a critical lane changing behavior, the calibrated car following behavior is used to assess the impact of a microscopic cooperative law on abnormal lane changing behavior. The cooperative law helps reduce and delay traffic congestion as it increases traffic flow stability.

Design of open source framework for traffic and travel simulation

For the evaluation, design, and planning of traffic facilities and measures, traffic simulation packages are the de facto tools for consultants, policy makers, and researchers. However, the available commercial simulation packages do not always offer the desired work flow and flexibility for academic research. In many cases, researchers resort to designing and building their own dedicated models, without an intrinsic incentive (or the practical means) to make the results available in the public domain. To make matters worse, a substantial part of these efforts pertains to rebuilding basic functionality and, in many respects, reinventing the wheel. This problem not only affects the research community but adversely affects the entire traffic simulation community and frustrates the development of traffic simulation in general. For this problem to be addressed, this paper describes an open source approach, OpenTraffic, which is being developed as a collaborative effort between the Queensland University of Technology, Australia; the National Institute of Informatics, Tokyo; and the Technical University of Delft, the Netherlands. The OpenTraffic simulation framework enables academies from geographic areas and disciplines within the traffic domain to work together and contribute to a specific topic of interest, ranging from travel choice behavior to car following, and from response to intelligent transportation systems to activity planning. The modular approach enables users of the software to focus on their area of interest, whereas other functional modules can be regarded as black boxes. Specific attention is paid to a standardization of data inputs and outputs for traffic simulations. Such standardization will allow the sharing of data with many existing commercial simulation packages.

Hazard based models for freeway traffic incident duration

Assessing and prioritising cost-effective strategies to mitigate the impacts of traffic incidents and accidents on non-recurrent congestion on major roads represents a significant challenge for road network managers. This research examines the influence of numerous factors associated with incidents of various types on their duration. It presents a comprehensive traffic incident data mining and analysis by developing an incident duration model based on twelve months of incident data obtained from the Australian freeway network. Parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) survival models of incident duration were developed, including log-logistic, lognormal, and Weibul-considering both fixed and random parameters, as well as a Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity. The Weibull AFT models with random parameters were appropriate for modelling incident duration arising from crashes and hazards. A Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity was most suitable for modelling incident duration of stationary vehicles. Significant variables affecting incident duration include characteristics of the incidents (severity, type, towing requirements, etc.), and location, time of day, and traffic characteristics of the incident. Moreover, the findings reveal no significant effects of infrastructure and weather on incident duration. A significant and unique contribution of this paper is that the durations of each type of incident are uniquely different and respond to different factors. The results of this study are useful for traffic incident management agencies to implement strategies to reduce incident duration, leading to reduced congestion, secondary incidents, and the associated human and economic losses.

Analysis of traffic injury severity in a mega city of a developing country

Despite a considerable amount of research on traffic injury severities, relatively little is known about the factors influencing traffic injury severity in developing countries, and in particular in Bangladesh. Road traffic crashes are a common headline in daily newspapers of Bangladesh. It has also recorded one of the highest road fatality rates in the world. This research identifies significant factors contributing to traffic injury severity in Dhaka – a mega city and capital of Bangladesh. Road traffic crash data of 5 years from 2007 to 2011 were collected from the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP), which included about 2714 traffic crashes. The severity level of these crashes was documented in a 4-point ordinal scale: no injury (property damage), minor injury, severe injury, and death. An ordered Probit regression model has been estimated to identify factors contributing to injury severities. Results show that night time influence is associated with a higher level injury severity as is for individuals involved in single vehicle crashes. Crashes on highway sections within the city are found to be more injurious than crashes along the arterial and feeder roads. There is a lower likelihood of injury severity, however, if the road sections are monitored and enforced by the traffic police. The likelihood of injuries is lower on two-way traffic arrangements than one-way, and at four-legged intersections and roundabouts compare to road segments. The findings are compared with those from developed countries and the implications of this research are discussed in terms of policy settings for developing countries.

Sources of ultrafine particles and chemical species along a traffic corridor : comparison of the results from two receptor models

Particulate matter is common in our environment and has been linked to human health problems particularly in the ultrafine size range. A range of chemical species have been associated with particulate matter and of special concern are the hazardous chemicals that can accentuate health problems. If the sources of such particles can be identified then strategies can be developed for the reduction of air pollution and consequently, the improvement of the quality of life. In this investigation, particle number size distribution data and the concentrations of chemical species were obtained at two sites in Brisbane, Australia. Source apportionment was used to determine the sources (or factors) responsible for the particle size distribution data. The apportionment was performed by Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) and Principal Component Analysis/Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA/APCS), and the results were compared with information from the gaseous chemical composition analysis. Although PCA/APCS resolved more sources, the results of the PMF analysis appear to be more reliable. Six common sources identified by both methods include: traffic 1, traffic 2, local traffic, biomass burning, and two unassigned factors. Thus motor vehicle related activities had the most impact on the data with the average contribution from nearly all sources to the measured concentrations higher during peak traffic hours and weekdays. Further analyses incorporated the meteorological measurements into the PMF results to determine the direction of the sources relative to the measurement sites, and this indicated that traffic on the nearby road and intersection was responsible for most of the factors. The described methodology which utilised a combination of three types of data related to particulate matter to determine the sources could assist future development of particle emission control and reduction strategies.

Utility of an alternative bicycle commute route of lower proximity to motorised traffic in decreasing exposure to ultra-fine particles, respiratory symptoms and airway inflammation - a structured exposure experiment

Background: Bicycle commuting in an urban environment of high air pollution is known as a potential health risk, especially for susceptible individuals. While risk management strategies aimed to reduce motorised traffic emissions exposure have been suggested, limited studies have assessed the utility of such strategies in real-world circumstances. Objectives: The potential of reducing exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP; < 0.1 µm) during bicycle commuting by lowering interaction with motorised traffic was investigated with real-time air pollution and acute inflammatory measurements in healthy individuals using their typical, and an alternative to their typical, bicycle commute route. Methods: Thirty-five healthy adults (mean ± SD: age = 39 ± 11 yr; 29% female) each completed two return trips of their typical route (HIGH) and a pre-determined altered route of lower interaction with motorised traffic (LOW; determined by the proportion of on-road cycle paths). Particle number concentration (PNC) and diameter (PD) were monitored in real-time in-commute. Acute inflammatory indices of respiratory symptom incidence, lung function and spontaneous sputum (for inflammatory cell analyses) were collected immediately pre-commute, and one and three hours post-commute. Results: LOW resulted in a significant reduction in mean PNC (1.91 x e4 ± 0.93 x e4 ppcc vs. 2.95 x e4 ± 1.50 x e4 ppcc; p ≤ 0.001). Besides incidence of in-commute offensive odour detection (42 vs. 56 %; p = 0.019), incidence of dust and soot observation (33 vs. 47 %; p = 0.038) and nasopharyngeal irritation (31 vs. 41 %; p = 0.007), acute inflammatory indices were not significantly associated to in-commute PNC, nor were these indices reduced with LOW compared to HIGH. Conclusions: Exposure to PNC, and the incidence of offensive odour and nasopharyngeal irritation, can be significantly reduced when utilising a strategy of lowering interaction with motorised traffic whilst bicycle commuting, which may bring important benefits for both healthy and susceptible individuals.

Investigation into the noise map based on traffic flow prediction in the citywide road network

As one of the measures for decreasing road traffic noise in a city, the control of the traffic flow and the physical distribution is considered. To conduct the measure effectively, the model for predicting the traffic flow in the citywide road network is necessary. In this study, the existing model named AVENUE was used as a traffic flow prediction model. The traffic flow model was integrated with the road vehicles' sound power model and the sound propagation model, and the new road traffic noise prediction model was established. As a case study, the prediction model was applied to the road network of Tsukuba city in Japan and the noise map of the city was made. To examine the calculation accuracy of the noise map, the calculated values of the noise at the main roads were compared with the measured values. As a result, it was found that there was a possibility that the high accuracy noise map of the city could be made by using the noise prediction model developed in this study.

Rogue flows : trans-Asian cultural traffic

"Rogue Flows brings together some of the best and most knowledgeable writers on consumption and cultural theory to chart the under-explored field of cultural flows and consumption across different regions in Asia, and the importance of these flows in creating contemporary Asian national identities. It offers innovative possibilities for envisioning how the transfer of popular and consumer culture (such as TV, music, film, advertising and commodities) across Asian countries has produced a new form of cross-cultural fertilisation within Asian societies, which does not merely copy Western counterparts." "Rogue Flows is unique in its investigation of how "Asianness" is being exploited by Asian transnational cultural industries and how it is involved in the new power relations of the region. It is an important contribution to the literature of Asian cultural studies."--BOOK JACKET.

Reducing alcohol-related driving on China's roads : Traffic police officers' perceptions and practice

Alcohol-related driving is a longstanding, serious problem in China (Li, Xie, Nie, & Zhang, 2012). On 1st May, 2011 a national law was introduced to criminalize drunk driving, and imposed serious penalties including jail for driving with a blood alcohol level of above 80mg/100ml. This pilot study, undertaken a year after introduction of the law, sought traffic police officers’ perceptions of drink driving and the practice of breath alcohol testing (BAT) in a large city in Guangdong Province, southern China. A questionnaire survey and semi-structured interviews were used to gain an in-depth understanding of issues relevant to alcohol-related driving. Fifty-five traffic police officers were recruited for the survey and six traffic police officers with a variety of working experience including roadside alcohol breath testing, traffic crash investigation and police resourcing were interviewed individually. The officers were recruited by the first author with the assistance of the staff from Guangdong Institute of Public Health, Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Interview participants reported three primary reasons why people drink and drive: 1) being prepared to take the chance of not being apprehended by police; 2) the strong traditional Chinese drinking culture; and 3) insufficient public awareness about the harmfulness of drink driving. Problems associated with the process of breath alcohol testing (BAT) were described and fit broadly into two categories: resourcing and avoiding detection. It was reported that there were insufficient traffic police officers to conduct routine traffic policing, including alcohol testing. Police BAT equipment was considered sufficient for routine traffic situations but not highway traffic operations. Local media and posters are used by the Public Security Bureau which is responsible for education about safe driving but participants thought that the education campaigns are limited in scope. Participants also described detection avoidance strategies used by drivers including: changing route; ignoring a police instruction to stop; staying inside the vehicle with windows and doors locked to avoid being tested; intentionally not performing breath tests correctly; and arguing with officers. This pilot study provided important insights from traffic police in one Chinese city which suggest there may be potential unintended effects of introducing more severe penalties including a range of strategies reportedly used by drivers to avoid detection. Recommendations for future research include a larger study to confirm these findings and examine the training and education of drivers; the focus and reach of publicity; and possible resource needs to support police enforcement.

Traffic queue estimation for metered motorway on-ramps through use of loop detector time occupancies

The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust queue estimation algorithm for motorway on-ramps. Real-time queue information is a vital input for dynamic queue management on metered on-ramps. Accurate and reliable queue information enables the management of on-ramp queue in an adaptive manner to the actual traffic queue size and thus minimises the adverse impacts of queue flush while increasing the benefit of ramp metering. The proposed algorithm is developed based on the Kalman filter framework. The fundamental conservation model is used to estimate the system state (queue size) with the flow-in and flow-out measurements. This projection results are updated with the measurement equation using the time occupancies from mid-link and link-entrance loop detectors. This study also proposes a novel single point correction method. This method resets the estimated system state to eliminate the counting errors that accumulate over time. In the performance evaluation, the proposed algorithm demonstrated accurate and reliable performances and consistently outperformed the benchmarked Single Occupancy Kalman filter (SOKF) method. The improvements over SOKF are 62% and 63% in average in terms of the estimation accuracy (MAE) and reliability (RMSE), respectively. The benefit of the innovative concepts of the algorithm is well justified by the improved estimation performance in congested ramp traffic conditions where long queues may significantly compromise the benchmark algorithm’s performance.

Optimized strategy for integrated traffic and transit signal control

This paper proposes a unique and innovative approach to integrate transit signal priority control into a traffic adaptive signal control strategy. The proposed strategy was named OSTRAC (Optimized Strategy for integrated TRAffic and TRAnsit signal Control). The cornerstones of OSTRAC include an online microscopic traffic f low prediction model and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based traffic signal timing module. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the critical GA parameters. The developed traffic f low model demonstrated reliable prediction results through a test. OSTRAC was evaluated by comparing its performance to three other signal control strategies. The evaluation results revealed that OSTRAC efficiently and effectively reduced delay time of general traffic and also transit vehicles.

Assessing the Impact of Sensor Accuracy and Sensor Choice on Air Traffic Conflict Risk Estimation using Risk-Ratio Concepts

One of the primary desired capabilities of any future air traffic separation management system is the ability to provide early conflict detection and resolution effectively and efficiently. In this paper, we consider the risk of conflict as a primary measurement to be used for early conflict detection. This paper focuses on developing a novel approach to assess the impact of different measurement uncertainty models on the estimated risk of conflict. The measurement uncertainty model can be used to represent different sensor accuracy and sensor choices. Our study demonstrates the value of modelling measurement uncertainty in the conflict risk estimation problem and presents techniques providing a means of assessing sensor requirements to achieve desired conflict detection performance.

Challenges for rural and remote road safety

The growing national and international awareness of the increased representation of serious injuries and fatalities in rural and remote areas is the focus of this paper. Australia was one of the earliest countries to try to address this issue with a targeted national action plan in 1996. This was an important document but the most recent national plan fails to dedicate attention to developing countermeasures for the particular problems of improving road safety in these regions. The findings of a major program of research in Northern Queensland are discussed to stimulate interest and research into potential countermeasures. Specifically, the need to monitor clusters of crashes as a focus for intervention and local ownership is advocated. Taking action towards a national reduction of speed limits on rural roads and investment in proactive research based trials of drink driving countermeasures such as courtesy buses is strongly advocated.

Older drivers' crashes in Queensland, Australia

Background: The growing proportion of older adults in Australia is predicted to comprise 23% of the population by 2030. Accordingly, an increasing number of older drivers and fatal crashes of these drivers could also be expected. While the cognitive and physiological limitations of ageing and their road safety implications have been widely documented, research has generally considered older drivers as a homogeneous group. Knowledge of age-related crash trends within the older driver group itself is currently limited. Objective: The aim of this research was to identify age-related differences in serious road crashes of older drivers. This was achieved by comparing crash characteristics between older and younger drivers and between sub-groups of older drivers. Particular attention was paid to serious crashes (crashes resulting in hospitalisation and fatalities) as they place the greatest burden on the Australian health system. Method: Using Queensland Crash data, a total of 191,709 crashes of all-aged drivers (17–80+) over a 9-year period were analysed. Crash patterns of drivers’ aged 17–24, 25–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79 and 80+ were compared in terms of crash severity (e.g., fatal), at fault levels, traffic control measures (e.g., stop signs) and road features (e.g., intersections). Crashes of older driver sub-groups (60–69, 70–79, 80+) were also compared to those of middle-aged drivers (40–49 and 50–59 combined, who were identified as the safest driving cohort) with respect to crash-related traffic control features and other factors (e.g., speed). Confounding factors including speed and crash nature (e.g., sideswipe) were controlled for. Results and discussion: Results indicated that patterns of serious crashes, as a function of crash severity, at-fault levels, road conditions and traffic control measures, differed significantly between age groups. As a group, older drivers (60+) represented the greatest proportion of crashes resulting in fatalities and hospitalisation, as well as those involving uncontrolled intersections and failure to give way. The opposite was found for middle-aged drivers, although they had the highest proportion of alcohol and speed-related crashes when compared to older drivers. Among all older drivers, those aged 60–69 were least likely to be involved in or the cause of crashes, but most likely to crash at interchanges and as a result of driving while fatigued or after consuming alcohol. Drivers aged 70–79 represented a mid-range level of crash involvement and culpability, and were most likely to crash at stop and give way signs. Drivers aged 80 years and beyond were most likely to be seriously injured or killed in, and at-fault for, crashes, and had the greatest number of crashes at both conventional and circular intersections. Overall, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of older drivers’ crash patterns and suggest that age-related differences must be considered in measures designed to improve older driver safety.