Reliability analysis with suspended items

Reliability analysis has several important engineering applications. Designers and operators of equipment are often interested in the probability of the equipment operating successfully to a given age - this probability is known as the equipment's reliability at that age. Reliability information is also important to those charged with maintaining an item of equipment, as it enables them to model and evaluate alternative maintenance policies for the equipment. In each case, information on failures and survivals of a typical sample of items is used to estimate the required probabilities as a function of the item's age, this process being one of many applications of the statistical techniques known as distribution fitting. In most engineering applications, the estimation procedure must deal with samples containing survivors (suspensions or censorings); this thesis focuses on several graphical estimation methods that are widely used for analysing such samples. Although these methods have been current for many years, they share a common shortcoming: none of them is continuously sensitive to changes in the ages of the suspensions, and we show that the resulting reliability estimates are therefore more pessimistic than necessary. We use a simple example to show that the existing graphical methods take no account of any service recorded by suspensions beyond their respective previous failures, and that this behaviour is inconsistent with one's intuitive expectations. In the course of this thesis, we demonstrate that the existing methods are only justified under restricted conditions. We present several improved methods and demonstrate that each of them overcomes the problem described above, while reducing to one of the existing methods where this is justified. Each of the improved methods thus provides a realistic set of reliability estimates for general (unrestricted) censored samples. Several related variations on these improved methods are also presented and justified. - i

Modelling of inflatable rescue boats (IRBs) in surf conditions to reduce injuries

The Inflatable Rescue Boat (IRB) is arguably the most effective rescue tool used by the Australian surf lifesavers. The exceptional features of high mobility and rapid response have enabled it to become an icon on Australia's popular beaches. However, the IRB's extensive use within an environment that is as rugged as it is spectacular, has led it to become a danger to those who risk their lives to save others. Epidemiological research revealed lower limb injuries to be predominant, particularly the right leg. The common types of injuries were fractures and dislocations, as well as muscle or ligament strains and tears. The concern expressed by Surf Life Saving Queensland (SLSQ) and Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA) led to a biomechanical investigation into this unique and relatively unresearched field. The aim of the research was to identify the causes of injury and propose processes that may reduce the instances and severity of injury to surf lifesavers during IRB operation. Following a review of related research, a design analysis of the craft was undertaken as an introduction to the craft, its design and uses. The mechanical characteristics of the vessel were then evaluated and the accelerations applied to the crew in the IRB were established through field tests. The data were then combined and modelled in the 3-D mathematical modelling and simulation package, MADYMO. A tool was created to compare various scenarios of boat design and methods of operation to determine possible mechanisms to reduce injuries. The results of this study showed that under simulated wave loading the boats flex around a pivot point determined by the position of the hinge in the floorboard. It was also found that the accelerations experienced by the crew exhibited similar characteristics to road vehicle accidents. Staged simulations indicated the attributes of an optimum foam in terms of thickness and density. Likewise, modelling of the boat and crew produced simulations that predicted realistic crew response to tested variables. Unfortunately, the observed lack of adherence to the SLSA footstrap Standard has impeded successful epidemiological and modelling outcomes. If uniformity of boat setup can be assured then epidemiological studies will be able to highlight the influence of implementing changes to the boat design. In conclusion, the research provided a tool to successfully link the epidemiology and injury diagnosis to the mechanical engineering design through the use of biomechanics. This was a novel application of the mathematical modelling software MADYMO. Other craft can also be investigated in this manner to provide solutions to the problem identified and therefore reduce risk of injury for the operators.

Development and evaluation of hydrocarbon sorbent materials with the aid of chemometrics

Hydrocarbon spills on roads are a major safety concern for the driving public and can have severe cost impacts both on pavement maintenance and to the economy through disruption to services. The time taken to clean-up spills and re-open roads in a safe driving condition is an issue of increasing concern given traffic levels on major urban arterials. Thus, the primary aim of the research was to develop a sorbent material that facilitates rapid clean-up of road spills. The methodology involved extensive research into a range of materials (organic, inorganic and synthetic sorbents), comprehensive testing in the laboratory, scale-up and field, and product design (i.e. concept to prototype). The study also applied chemometrics to provide consistent, comparative methods of sorbent evaluation and performance. In addition, sorbent materials at every stage were compared against a commercial benchmark. For the first time, the impact of diesel on asphalt pavement has been quantified and assessed in a systematic way. Contrary to conventional thinking and anecdotal observations, the study determined that the action of diesel on asphalt was quite rapid (i.e. hours rather than weeks or months). This significant finding demonstrates the need to minimise the impact of hydrocarbon spills and the potential application of the sorbent option. To better understand the adsorption phenomenon, surface characterisation techniques were applied to selected sorbent materials (i.e. sand, organo-clay and cotton fibre). Brunauer Emmett Teller (BET) and thermal analysis indicated that the main adsorption mechanism for the sorbents occurred on the external surface of the material in the diffusion region (sand and organo-clay) and/or capillaries (cotton fibre). Using environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM), it was observed that adsorption by the interfibre capillaries contributed to the high uptake of hydrocarbons by the cotton fibre. Understanding the adsorption mechanism for these sorbents provided some guidance and scientific basis for the selection of materials. The study determined that non-woven cotton mats were ideal sorbent materials for clean-up of hydrocarbon spills. The prototype sorbent was found to perform significantly better than the commercial benchmark, displaying the following key properties: • superior hydrocarbon pick-up from the road pavement; • high hydrocarbon retention capacity under an applied load; • adequate field skid resistance post treatment; • functional and easy to use in the field (e.g. routine handling, transportation, application and recovery); • relatively inexpensive to produce due to the use of raw cotton fibre and simple production process; • environmentally friendly (e.g. renewable materials, non-toxic to environment and operators, and biodegradable); and • rapid response time (e.g. two minutes total clean-up time compared with thirty minutes for reference sorbents). The major outcomes of the research project include: a) development of a specifically designed sorbent material suitable for cleaning up hydrocarbon spills on roads; b) submission of patent application (serial number AU2005905850) for the prototype product; and c) preparation of Commercialisation Strategy to advance the sorbent product to the next phase (i.e. R&D to product commercialisation).

Family-focused weight management program for five- to nine-year-olds incorporating parenting skills training with healthy lifestyle information to support behaviour modification

his case study aims to describe how general parenting principles can be used as part of parent-led, family-focused child weight management that is in line with current Australian Clinical Practice Guidelines. A parent-led, family-focused child weight management program was designed for use by dietitians with parents of young children (five- to nine-year-olds). The program utilises the cornerstones of overweight treatment: diet, activity, behaviour modification and family support delivered in an age-appropriate, family-focused manner. Parents participate in 16 sessions (4 parenting-focused, 8 lifestyle-focused and 4 individual telephone support calls) conducted weekly, fortnightly then monthly over six months. This case study illustrates how a family used the program, resulting in reduced degree of overweight and stabilised waist circumference in the child over 12 months. In conclusion, linking parenting skills to healthy family lifestyle education provides an innovative approach to family-focused child weight management. It addresses key Australian Clinical Practice Guidelines, works at the family level, and provides a means for dietitians to easily adopt age-appropriate behaviour modification as part of their practice.

Communication patterns within social networks : a case study of Australian women

Based on the perception that “individual bonds to one another is the essence of society” (Fischer, 1982a, p. 2), this paper examines contemporary networks of friends: friendworks, of adult women in an Australian sea change community. Communication patterns are examined drawing on findings from a case study of 26 women aged 35-76 years. Among the case study participants, many have undertaken a ‘sea change’ as adults, which in most cases has led to a significant reconstruction of their friendworks. Location and lifestyle are identified as impacting factors on communication patterns with friends; face-to-face interactions are by far the most frequent and preferred method of communication among the participants. The landline telephone and internet are the main communication methods used to maintain friendships with distant loved ones, while the mobile phone is reported as the communication method employed the least. The infrequency of mobile phone use can be attributed to cost issues, highlighting a discrepancy between these women’s social and communication needs and the current Australian mobile phone policy.

Australia and New Zealand CBNG development and environmental implications

Following the success of Coalbed Natural Gas (CBNG) operations in the United States, companies in Australia and New Zealand have been actively exploring and developing this technology for the last two decades. In particular, the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland, Australia, have undergone extensive CBNG development. Unfortunately, awareness of potential environmental problems associated with CBNG abstraction has not been widespread and legislation has at times struggled to keep up with rapid development. In Australia, the combined CBNG resource for both the Bowen and Surat basins has been estimated at approximately 10,500 PJ with gas content as high as 10 m3/tonne of coal. There are no official estimates for the magnitude of the CBNG resource in New Zealand but initial estimates suggest this could be up to 1,300 PJ with gas content ranging from 1 to 5 m3/tonne of coal. In Queensland, depressurization of the Walloon Coal Measures to recover CBNG has the potential to induce drawdown in adjacent deep aquifer systems through intraformational groundwater flow. In addition, CBNG operators have been disposing their co-produced water by using large unlined ponds, which is not the best practice for managing co-produced water. CBNG waters in Queensland have the typical geochemical signature associated with CBNG waters (Van Voast, 2003) and thus have the potential to impair soils and plant growth where land disposal is considered. Water quality from exploration wells in New Zealand exhibit the same characteristics although full scale production has not yet begun. In general, the environmental impacts that could arise from CBNG water extraction depend on the aquifer system, the quantity and quality of produced water, and on the method of treatment and disposal being used. Understanding these impacts is necessary to adequately manage CBNG waters so that environmental effects are minimized; if properly managed, CBNG waters can be used for beneficial applications and can become a valuable resource to stakeholders.

Governors highway safety associations and transportation planning: Exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991 mandated the consideration of safety in the regional transportation planning process. As part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program Project 8-44, "Incorporating Safety into the Transportation Planning Process," we conducted a telephone survey to assess safety-related activities and expertise at Governors Highway Safety Associations (GHSAs), and GHSA relationships with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). The survey results were combined with statewide crash data to enable exploratory modeling of the relationship between GHSA policies and programs and statewide safety. The modeling objective was to illuminate current hurdles to ISTEA implementation, so that appropriate institutional, analytical, and personnel improvements can be made. The study revealed that coordination of transportation safety across DOTs, MPOs, GHSAs, and departments of public safety is generally beneficial to the implementation of safety. In addition, better coordination is characterized by more positive and constructive attitudes toward incorporating safety into planning.

Conflict resolution through negotiation in a railway open access market : a multi-agent system approach

Open access reforms to railway regulations allow multiple train operators to provide rail services on a common infrastructure. As railway operations are now independently managed by different stakeholders, conflicts in operations may arise, and there have been attempts to derive an effective access charge regime so that these conflicts may be resolved. One approach is by direct negotiation between the infrastructure manager and the train service providers. Despite the substantial literature on the topic, few consider the benefits of employing computer simulation as an evaluation tool for railway operational activities such as access pricing. This article proposes a multi-agent system (MAS) framework for the railway open market and demonstrates its feasibility by modelling the negotiation between an infrastructure provider and a train service operator. Empirical results show that the model is capable of resolving operational conflicts according to market demand.

Peak power demand reduction under moving block signalling using an expert system

The concept of moving block signallings (MBS) has been adopted in a few mass transit railway systems. When a dense queue of trains begins to move from a complete stop, the trains can re-start in very close succession under MBS. The feeding substations nearby are likely to be overloaded and the service will inevitably be disturbed unless substations of higher power rating are used. By introducing starting time delays among the trains or limiting the trains’ acceleration rate to a certain extent, the peak energy demand can be contained. However, delay is introduced and quality of service is degraded. An expert system approach is presented to provide a supervisory tool for the operators. As the knowledge base is vital for the quality of decisions to be made, the study focuses on its formulation with a balance between delay and peak power demand.

Business Process Model Merging : An Approach to Business Process Consolidation

This paper addresses the problem of constructing consolidated business process models out of collections of process models that share common fragments. The paper considers the construction of unions of multiple models (called merged models) as well as intersections (called digests). Merged models are intended for analysts who wish to create a model that subsumes a collection of process models - typically representing variants of the same underlying process - with the aim of replacing the variants with the merged model. Digests, on the other hand, are intended for analysts who wish to identify the most recurring fragments across a collection of process models, so that they can focus their efforts on optimizing these fragments. The paper presents an algorithm for computing merged models and an algorithm for extracting digests from a merged model. The merging and digest extraction algorithms have been implemented and tested against collections of process models taken from multiple application domains. The tests show that the merging algorithm produces compact models and scales up to process models containing hundreds of nodes. Furthermore, a case study conducted in a large insurance company has demonstrated the usefulness of the merging and digest extraction operators in a practical setting.

An investigation of rail condition monitoring by Fibre Bragg Grating sensors

Condition monitoring on rails and train wheels is vitally important to the railway asset management and the rail-wheel interactions provide the crucial information of the health state of both rails and wheels. Continuous and remote monitoring is always a preference for operators. With a new generation of strain sensing devices in Fibre Bragg Grating (FBG) sensors, this study explores the possibility of continuous monitoring of the health state of the rails; and investigates the required signal processing techniques and their limitations.

Adherence to medicines in the older-aged with chronic conditions : does an intervention concerning adherence by an allied health professional help?

Adherence to medicines is a major determinant of the effectiveness of medicines. However, estimates of non-adherence in the older-aged with chronic conditions vary from 40 to 75%. The problems caused by non-adherence in the older-aged include residential care and hospital admissions, progression of the disease, and increased costs to society. The reasons for non-adherence in the older-aged include items related to the medicine (e.g. cost, number of medicines, adverse effects) and those related to person (e.g. cognition, vision, depression). It is also known that there are many ways adherence can be increased (e.g. use of blister packs, cues). It is assumed that interventions by allied health professions, including a discussion of adherence, will improve adherence to medicines in the older aged but the evidence for this has not been reviewed. There is some evidence that telephone counselling about adherence by a nurse or pharmacist does improve adherence, short- and long-term. However, face-to-face intervention counselling at the pharmacy, or during a home visit by a pharmacist, has shown variable results with some studies showing improved adherence and some not. Education programs during hospital stays have not been shown to improve adherence on discharge, but education programs for subjects with hypertension have been shown to improve adherence. In combination with an education program, both counselling and a medicine review program have been shown to improve adherence short-term in the older-aged. Thus, there are many unanswered questions about the most effective interventions to promote adherence. More studies are needed to determine the most appropriate interventions by allied health professions, and these need to consider the disease state, demographics, and socio-economic status of the older-aged subject, and the intensity and duration of intervention needed.