Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

The effect of high concentrations of calcium hydroxide in neutralised synthetic supernatant liquor : implications for alumina refinery residues

The presence of calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) in Bayer residue slurry inhibits the effectiveness of the seawater neutralisation process to reduce the pH and aluminium concentration in the residue. An increase in the slurry pH (reversion), after seawater neutralisation, is caused by the dissolution of calcium hydroxide and hydrocalumite (solid components found in bauxite refinery residue). Reversion was not observed when the final solution pH was greater than 10.5, due to hydrocalumite being in a state of equilibrium at high pH. Hydrocalumite has been found to form during the neutralisation process when high concentrations of calcium hydroxide are present in the residue liquor. The dissolution of hydrocalumite releases hydroxyl (OH-) and aluminium ions back into solution after the seawater neutralisation (SWN) process, which causes pH and aluminium reversion to occur. This investigation looks at the effect of Ca(OH)2 and subsequently hydrocalumite on the pH and aluminium concentration in bauxite refinery residue liquors after the SWN process.

Brisbane floods : a traffic and transport perspective

Flood-besieged Brisbane residents were forced to watch the monster river consume their homes and livelihoods then see the receding water leave behind a putrid, tar-like sludge. The rains formed by multiple low pressure systems over Central Queensland caused chaos over the Christmas and New Year break for many parts of Queensland.

Overloading truck traffic study and strategy to minimise it

Overloaded truck traffic is a significant problem on highways around the world. Developing countries in particular, overloaded truck traffic causes large amounts of unexpected expenditure in terms of road maintenance because of premature pavement damage. Overloaded truck traffic is a common phenomenon in developing countries, because of inefficient road management and monitoring systems. According to the available literature, many developing countries are facing the same problem, which is economic loss caused by the existence of overloaded trucks in the traffic stream. This paper summarizes the available literature, news reports, journal articles and traffic research regarding overloaded traffic. It examines the issue of overloading and the strategies and legislation used in developed countries.

Novel synthetic bio-mimic polymers for potential cell delivery therapy

Cell-based therapy is one of the major potential therapeutic strategies for cardiovascular, neuronal and degenerative diseases in recent years. Synthetic biodegradable polymers have been utilized increasingly in pharmaceutical, medical and biomedical engineering. Control of the interaction of living cells and biomaterials surfaces is one of the major goals in the design and development of new polymeric biomaterials in tissue engineering. The aims of this study is to develop a novel bio-mimic polymeric materials which will facilitate the delivery cells, control cell bioactivities and enhance the focal integration of graft cells with host tissues.

Sustaining the next generation of teacher-researchers to work for social justice

This chapter explores a research project involving teachers working with some of the most disadvantaged young people in South Australia, children growing up in poverty, in families struggling with homelessness and ill-health, in the outer southern suburbs. Additionally, there were particular children were struggling with intellectual, emotional and social difficulties which were extreme enough for them not be included in a mainstream class. The research project made two crucial interrelated moves to support teachers to tackle this tough work. First, the project had an explicit social justice agenda. We were not simply researching literacy outcomes, but literacy pedagogies for the students teachers were most worried about. And we wanted to understand how the material conditions of students’ everyday lifeworlds impacted on the working conditions of teachers’ schoolworlds. We sought to open up a discursive space where teachers could talk about poverty, violence, racism and classism in ways that would take them beyond despair and into new imaginings and positive action. Second, the project was designed to start from the urgent questions of early career teachers and to draw on the accumulated practice wisdom of their chosen mentors. Hence we designed not only a teacher-researcher community, but cross-generational networks. Our aim was to build the capacities of both generations to address long-standing educational problems in new ways that drew overtly on their different and complementary resources.

SimTrust : a new method of trust network generation

Trust can be used for neighbor formation to generate automated recommendations. User assigned explicit rating data can be used for this purpose. However, the explicit rating data is not always available. In this paper we present a new method of generating trust network based on user’s interest similarity. To identify the interest similarity, we use user’s personalized tag information. This trust network can be used to find the neighbors to make automated recommendation. Our experiment result shows that the precision of the proposed method outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering approach.

Towards low emissions in the electricity generation sector : creating a coherent legal model for Australia

Australia’s efforts to transition to a low-emissions economy have stagnated following the successive defeats of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. This failure should not, however, be regarded as the end of Australia’s efforts to make this transition. In fact, the opportunity now exists for Australia to refine its existing arrangements to enable this transition to occur more effectively. The starting point for this analysis is the legal arrangements applying to the electricity generation sector, which is the largest sectoral emitter of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. Without an effective strategy to mitigate this sector’s contribution to anthropogenic climate change, it is unlikely that Australia will be able to transition towards a low-emissions economy. It is on this basis that this article assesses the dominant national legal arrangement – the Renewable Energy Target – underpinning the electricity generation sector's efforts to become a low-emissions sector.

Hylaluronan-based heparin-incorporated hydrogels for generation of axially vascularized bioartificial bone tissues : in vitro and in vivo evaluation in a PLDLLA-TCP-PCL-composite system

Smart matrices are required in bone tissueengineered grafts that provide an optimal environment for cells and retain osteo-inductive factors for sustained biological activity. We hypothesized that a slow-degrading heparin-incorporated hyaluronan (HA) hydrogel can preserve BMP-2; while an arterio–venous (A–V) loop can support axial vascularization to provide nutrition for a bioartificial bone graft. HA was evaluated for osteoblast growth and BMP-2 release. Porous PLDLLA–TCP–PCL scaffolds were produced by rapid prototyping technology and applied in vivo along with HA-hydrogel, loaded with either primary osteoblasts or BMP-2. A microsurgically created A–V loop was placed around the scaffold, encased in an isolation chamber in Lewis rats. HA-hydrogel supported growth of osteoblasts over 8 weeks and allowed sustained release of BMP-2 over 35 days. The A–V loop provided an angiogenic stimulus with the formation of vascularized tissue in the scaffolds. Bone-specific genes were detected by real time RT-PCR after 8 weeks. However, no significant amount of bone was observed histologically. The heterotopic isolation chamber in combination with absent biomechanical stimulation might explain the insufficient bone formation despite adequate expression of bone-related genes. Optimization of the interplay of osteogenic cells and osteo-inductive factors might eventually generate sufficient amounts of axially vascularized bone grafts for reconstructive surgery.

Increased traffic exposure and negative birth outcomes : a prospective cohort in Australia

Background: Pregnant women exposed to traffic pollution have an increased risk of negative birth outcomes. We aimed to investigate the size of this risk using a prospective cohort of 970 mothers and newborns in Logan, Queensland. ----- ----- Methods: We examined two measures of traffic: distance to nearest road and number of roads around the home. To examine the effect of distance we used the number of roads around the home in radii from 50 to 500 metres. We examined three road types: freeways, highways and main roads.----- ----- Results: There were no associations with distance to road. A greater number of freeways and main roads around the home were associated with a shorter gestation time. There were no negative impacts on birth weight, birth length or head circumference after adjusting for gestation. The negative effects on gestation were largely due to main roads within 400 metres of the home. For every 10 extra main roads within 400 metres of the home, gestation time was reduced by 1.1% (95% CI: -1.7, -0.5; p-value = 0.001).----- ----- Conclusions: Our results add weight to the association between exposure to traffic and reduced gestation time. This effect may be due to the chemical toxins in traffic pollutants, or because of disturbed sleep due to traffic noise.

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.

Applications of wavelet transform for analysis of freeway traffic : bottlenecks, transient traffic, and traffic oscillations

This paper demonstrates the capabilities of wavelet transform (WT) for analyzing important features related to bottleneck activations and traffic oscillations in congested traffic in a systematic manner. In particular, the analysis of loop detector data from a freeway shows that the use of wavelet-based energy can effectively identify the location of an active bottleneck, the arrival time of the resulting queue at each upstream sensor location, and the start and end of a transition during the onset of a queue. Vehicle trajectories were also analyzed using WT and our analysis shows that the wavelet-based energies of individual vehicles can effectively detect the origins of deceleration waves and shed light on possible triggers (e.g., lane-changing). The spatiotemporal propagations of oscillations identified by tracing wavelet-based energy peaks from vehicle to vehicle enable analysis of oscillation amplitude, duration and intensity.

Freeway traffic oscillations : microscopic analysis of formations and propagations using Wavelet Transform

In this paper we identify the origins of stop-and-go (or slow-and-go) driving and measure microscopic features of their propagations by analyzing vehicle trajectories via Wavelet Transform. Based on 53 oscillation cases analyzed, we find that oscillations can be originated by either lane-changing maneuvers (LCMs) or car-following behavior (CF). LCMs were predominantly responsible for oscillation formations in the absence of considerable horizontal or vertical curves, whereas oscillations formed spontaneously near roadside work on an uphill segment. Regardless of the trigger, the features of oscillation propagations were similar in terms of propagation speed, oscillation duration, and amplitude. All observed cases initially exhibited a precursor phase, in which slow-and-go motions were localized. Some of them eventually transitioned into a well developed phase, in which oscillations propagated upstream in queue. LCMs were primarily responsible for the transition, although some transitions occurred without LCMs. Our findings also suggest that an oscillation has a regressive effect on car following behavior: a deceleration wave of an oscillation affects a timid driver (with larger response time and minimum spacing) to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive, although this change may be short-lived. An extended framework of Newell’s CF is able to describe the regressive effects with two additional parameters with reasonable accuracy, as verified using vehicle trajectory data.

Empirical analysis of freeway traffic oscillation : its safety impact and evolution

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations. However, people have limited knowledge on this complex topic. In this research, 1) the impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences has been measured using the matched case-control design. The results consistently reveal that oscillations have a more significant impact on freeway safety than the average traffic states. 2) Wavelet Transform has been adopted to locate oscillations' origins and measure their characteristics along their propagation paths using vehicle trajectory data. 3) Lane changing maneuver's impact on the immediate follower is measured and modeled. The knowledge and the new models generated from this study could provide better understanding on fundamentals of congested traffic; enable improvements to existing traffic control strategies and freeway crash countermeasures; and instigate people to develop new operational strategies with the objective of reducing the negative effects of oscillatory driving.

Preliminary characterisation of the surface of cartilage following exposure to saturated and unsaturated synthetic lipids

Articular cartilage is covered by a microscopic structure known as surface amorphous layer. This surface structure is often the first victim of attack during cartilage degeneration, thereby resulting in a gross impairment in cartilage function such as lubrication and load bearing. We hypothesize that incubation of degraded cartilage in solutions of different species of synthetic surface active phospholipids (saturated and unsaturated species) can remodel this lost surface structure. To test this hypothesis, the structural configuration of the surface of articular cartilage was studied and characterised with the lipid filled surface amorphous layer intact using the AFM. The results were then compared with those obtained following a systematic removal (delipidization) and replacement (relipidization) of this layer. Our results show that the unsaturated surfactant partially restored the lost surface amorphous layer while the saturated surfactant specie settled on the surface due to its poor solubility in aqueous solution.