The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China : a case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model

Background There has been increasing interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality. However, few studies have used a case–crossover design to examine non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature-mortality relationship in China, or what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. Objectives To use a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) as a part of case–crossover design. To examine the non-linear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China. To explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality; Methods: The DLNM was applied to a case¬−crossover design to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean and minimum) on deaths (non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular and respiratory). Results A U-shaped relationship was consistently found between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. Conclusions In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. Results suggest that the effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. It is possible to combine the case−crossover design with DLNMs. This allows the case−crossover design to flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature (or air pollution) whilst controlling for season.

Assessment policy change in relation to English language teaching and learning in China : a study of perspectives from two universities

In response to concerns about the quality of English Language Learning (ELL) education at tertiary level, the Chinese Ministry of Education (CMoE) launched the College English Reform Program (CERP) in 2004. By means of a press release (CMoE, 2005) and a guideline document titled College English Curriculum Requirements (CECR) (CMoE, 2007), the CERP proposed two major changes to the College English assessment policy, which were: (1) the shift to optional status for the compulsory external test, the College English Test Band 4 (CET4); and (2) the incorporation of formative assessment into the existing summative assessment framework. This study investigated the interactions between the College English assessment policy change, the theoretical underpinnings, and the assessment practices within two Chinese universities (one Key University and one Non-Key University). It adopted a sociocultural theoretical perspective to examine the implementation process as experienced by local actors of institutional and classroom levels. Systematic data analysis using a constant comparative method (Merriam, 1998) revealed that contextual factors and implementation issues did not lead to significant differences in the two cases. Lack of training in assessment and the sociocultural factors such as the traditional emphasis on the product of learning and hierarchical teacher/students relationship are decisive and responsible for the limited effect of the reform.

An economic evaluation of the Safe Motherhood programme in Guangxi, China

Maternal and infant mortality is a global health issue with a significant social and economic impact. Each year, over half a million women worldwide die due to complications related to pregnancy or childbirth, four million infants die in the first 28 days of life, and eight million infants die in the first year. Ninety-nine percent of maternal and infant deaths are in developing countries. Reducing maternal and infant mortality is among the key international development goals. In China, the national maternal mortality ratio and infant mortality rate were reduced greatly in the past two decades, yet a large discrepancy remains between urban and rural areas. To address this problem, a large-scale Safe Motherhood Programme was initiated in 2000. The programme was implemented in Guangxi in 2003. Interventions in the programme included both demand-side and supply side-interventions focusing on increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. Little is known about the effects and economic outcomes of the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, although it has been implemented for seven years. The aim of this research is to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme in Guangxi, China. The objectives of this research include: 1. To evaluate whether the changes of health service use and birth outcomes are associated with the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme. 2. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme and quantify the uncertainty surrounding the decision. 3. To assess the expected value of perfect information associated with both the whole decision and individual parameters, and interpret the findings to inform priority setting in further research and policy making in this area. A quasi-experimental study design was used in this research to assess the effectiveness of the programme in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes. The study subjects were 51 intervention counties and 30 control counties. Data on the health service use, birth outcomes and socio-economic factors from 2001 to 2007 were collected from the programme database and statistical yearbooks. Based on the profile plots of the data, general linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the programme while controlling for the effects of baseline levels of the response variables, change of socio-economic factors over time and correlations among repeated measurements from the same county. Redundant multicollinear variables were deleted from the mixed model using the results of the multicollinearity diagnoses. For each response variable, the best covariance structure was selected from 15 alternatives according to the fit statistics including Akaike information criterion, Finite-population corrected Akaike information criterion, and Schwarz.s Bayesian information criterion. Residual diagnostics were used to validate the model assumptions. Statistical inferences were made to show the effect of the programme on health service use and birth outcomes. A decision analytic model was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the programme, quantify the decision uncertainty, and estimate the expected value of perfect information associated with the decision. The model was used to describe the transitions between health states for women and infants and reflect the change of both costs and health benefits associated with implementing the programme. Result gained from the mixed models and other relevant evidence identified were synthesised appropriately to inform the input parameters of the model. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the programme were calculated for the two groups of intervention counties over time. Uncertainty surrounding the parameters was dealt with using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty relating to model assumptions was handled using scenario analysis. Finally the expected value of perfect information for both the whole model and individual parameters in the model were estimated to inform priority setting in further research in this area.The annual change rates of the antenatal care rate and the institutionalised delivery rate were improved significantly in the intervention counties after the programme was implemented. Significant improvements were also found in the annual change rates of the maternal mortality ratio, the infant mortality rate, the incidence rate of neonatal tetanus and the mortality rate of neonatal tetanus in the intervention counties after the implementation of the programme. The annual change rate of the neonatal mortality rate was also improved, although the improvement was only close to statistical significance. The influences of the socio-economic factors on the health service use indicators and birth outcomes were identified. The rural income per capita had a significant positive impact on the health service use indicators, and a significant negative impact on the birth outcomes. The number of beds in healthcare institutions per 1,000 population and the number of rural telephone subscribers per 1,000 were found to be positively significantly related to the institutionalised delivery rate. The length of highway per square kilometre negatively influenced the maternal mortality ratio. The percentage of employed persons in the primary industry had a significant negative impact on the institutionalised delivery rate, and a significant positive impact on the infant mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate. The incremental costs of implementing the programme over the existing practice were US $11.1 million from the societal perspective, and US $13.8 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. Overall, 28,711 life years were generated by the programme, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US $386 from the societal perspective, and US $480 from the perspective of the Ministry of Health, both of which were below the threshold willingness-to-pay ratio of US $675. The expected net monetary benefit generated by the programme was US $8.3 million from the societal perspective, and US $5.5 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The overall probability that the programme was cost-effective was 0.93 and 0.89 from the two perspectives, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the programme was insensitive to the different estimates of the three parameters relating to the model assumptions. Further research could be conducted to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the decision, in which the upper limit of investment was US $0.6 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.3 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. It is also worthwhile to get a more precise estimate of the improvement of infant mortality rate. The population expected value of perfect information for individual parameters associated with this parameter was US $0.99 million from the societal perspective, and US $1.14 million from the perspective of the Ministry of Health. The findings from this study have shown that the interventions in the Safe Motherhood Programme were both effective and cost-effective in increasing health service use and improving birth outcomes in rural areas of Guangxi, China. Therefore, the programme represents a good public health investment and should be adopted and further expanded to an even broader area if possible. This research provides economic evidence to inform efficient decision making in improving maternal and infant health in developing countries.

A methodology to assess the competitiveness of real estate developers in China

Real estate, or property development, is considered one of the pillar industries of the Chinese economy. As a result of the opening up of the economy as well as the "macro-control" policy of the Central Chinese Government to moderate the frenetic pace of growth of the economy, the real estate industry has faced fierce competition and ongoing change. Real estate firms in China must improve their competitiveness in order to maintain market share or even survive in this brutally competitive environment. This study developed a methodology to evaluate the competitiveness of real estate developers in the China and then used a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the evaluation method. Four steps were taken to achieve this. The first step was to conduct a thorough literature review which included a review of the characteristics of real estate industry, theories about competitiveness and the competitive characteristics of real estate developers. Following this literature review, the competitive model was developed based on seven key competitive factors (the 'level 1') identified in the literature. They include: (1) financial competency; (2) market share; (3) management competency; (4) social responsibility; (5) organisational competency; (6) technological capabilities; and, (7) regional competitiveness. In the next step of research, the competitive evaluation criteria (the 'level 2') under each of competitive factors (the 'level 1') were evaluated. Additionally, there were identified a set of competitive attributes (the 'level 3') under each competitive criteria (the 'level 2'). These attributes were initially recognised during the literature review and then expanded upon through interviews with multidisciplinary experts and practitioners in various real estate-related industries. The final step in this research was to undertake a case study using the proposed evaluation method and attributes. Through the study of an actual real estate development company, the procedures and effectiveness of the evaluation method were illustrated and validated. Through the above steps, this research investigates and develops an analytical system for determining the corporate competitiveness of real estate developers in China. The analytical system is formulated to evaluate the "state of health" of the business from different competitive perspectives. The result of empirical study illustrates that a systematic and structured evaluation can effectively assist developers in identifying their strengths and highlighting potential problems. This is very important for the development of an overall corporate strategy and supporting key strategic decisions. This study also provides some insights, analysis and suggestions for improving the competitiveness of real estate developers in China from different perspectives, including: management competency, organisational competency, technological capabilities, financial competency, market share, social responsibility and regional competitiveness. In the case study, problems were found in each of these areas, and they appear to be common in the industry. To address these problems and improve the competitiveness and effectiveness of Chinese real estate developers, a variety of suggestions are proposed. The findings of this research provide an insight into the factors that influence competitiveness in the Chinese real estate industry while also assisting practitioners to formulate strategies to improve their competitiveness. References for studying the competitiveness of real estate developers in other countries are also provided.

Understanding the phenomenon of IS success in China through the lens of the IS-Impact model

This study is conducted within the IS-Impact Research Track at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The goal of the IS-Impact Track is, “to develop the most widely employed model for benchmarking information systems in organizations for the joint benefit of both research and practice” (Gable et al, 2006). IS-Impact is defined as “a measure at a point in time, of the stream of net benefits from the IS, to date and anticipated, as perceived by all key-user-groups” (Gable Sedera and Chan, 2008). Track efforts have yielded the bicameral IS-Impact measurement model; the “impact” half includes Organizational-Impact and Individual-Impact dimensions; the “quality” half includes System-Quality and Information-Quality dimensions. The IS-Impact model, by design, is intended to be robust, simple and generalizable, to yield results that are comparable across time, stakeholders, different systems and system contexts. The model and measurement approach employ perceptual measures and an instrument that is relevant to key stakeholder groups, thereby enabling the combination or comparison of stakeholder perspectives. Such a validated and widely accepted IS-Impact measurement model has both academic and practical value. It facilitates systematic operationalization of a main dependent variable in research (IS-Impact), which can also serve as an important independent variable. For IS management practice it provides a means to benchmark and track the performance of information systems in use. The objective of this study is to develop a Mandarin version IS-Impact model, encompassing a list of China-specific IS-Impact measures, aiding in a better understanding of the IS-Impact phenomenon in a Chinese organizational context. The IS-Impact model provides a much needed theoretical guidance for this investigation of ES and ES impacts in a Chinese context. The appropriateness and soundness of employing the IS-Impact model as a theoretical foundation are evident: the model originated from a sound theory of IS Success (1992), developed through rigorous validation, and also derived in the context of Enterprise Systems. Based on the IS-Impact model, this study investigates a number of research questions (RQs). Firstly, the research investigated what essential impacts have been derived from ES by Chinese users and organizations [RQ1]. Secondly, we investigate which salient quality features of ES are perceived by Chinese users [RQ2]. Thirdly, we seek to answer whether the quality and impacts measures are sufficient to assess ES-success in general [RQ3]. Lastly, the study attempts to address whether the IS-Impact measurement model is appropriate for Chinese organizations in terms of evaluating their ES [RQ4]. An open-ended, qualitative identification survey was employed in the study. A large body of short text data was gathered from 144 Chinese users and 633 valid IS-Impact statements were generated from the data set. A generally inductive approach was applied in the qualitative data analysis. Rigorous qualitative data coding resulted in 50 first-order categories with 6 second-order categories that were grounded from the context of Chinese organization. The six second-order categories are: 1) System Quality; 2) Information Quality; 3) Individual Impacts;4) Organizational Impacts; 5) User Quality and 6) IS Support Quality. The final research finding of the study is the contextualized Mandarin version IS-Impact measurement model that includes 38 measures organized into 4 dimensions: System Quality, information Quality, Individual Impacts and Organizational Impacts. The study also proposed two conceptual models to harmonize the IS-Impact model and the two emergent constructs – User Quality and IS Support Quality by drawing on previous IS effectiveness literatures and the Work System theory proposed by Alter (1999) respectively. The study is significant as it is the first effort that empirically and comprehensively investigates IS-Impact in China. Specifically, the research contributions can be classified into theoretical contributions and practical contributions. From the theoretical perspective, through qualitative evidence, the study test and consolidate IS-Impact measurement model in terms of the quality of robustness, completeness and generalizability. The unconventional research design exhibits creativity of the study. The theoretical model does not work as a top-down a priori seeking for evidence demonstrating its credibility; rather, the study allows a competitive model to emerge from the bottom-up and open-coding analysis. Besides, the study is an example extending and localizing pre-existing theory developed in Western context when the theory is introduced to a different context. On the other hand, from the practical perspective, It is first time to introduce prominent research findings in field of IS Success to Chinese academia and practitioner. This study provides a guideline for Chinese organizations to assess their Enterprise System, and leveraging IT investment in the future. As a research effort in ITPS track, this study contributes the research team with an alternative operationalization of the dependent variable. The future research can take on the contextualized Mandarin version IS-Impact framework as a theoretical a priori model, further quantitative and empirical testing its validity.

Caregiving experience and its influencing factors : rural versus urban adult-child caregivers caring for parents with dementia in China

Background: It is predicted that China will have the largest number of cases of dementia in the world by 2025 (Ferri et al., 2005). Research has demonstrated that caring for family members with dementia can be a long-term, burdensome activity resulting in physical and emotional distress and impairment (Pinquart & Sorensen, 2003b). The establishment of family caregiver supportive services in China can be considered urgent; and the knowledge of the caregiving experience and related influencing factors is necessary to inform such services. Nevertheless, in the context of rapid demographic and socioeconomic change, the impact of caregiving for rural and urban Chinese adult-child caregivers may be different, and different needs in supportive services may therefore be expected. Objectives: The aims of this research were 1) to examine the potential differences existing in the caregiving experience between rural and urban adult-child caregivers caring for parents with dementia in China; and 2) to examine the potential differences existing in the influencing factors of the caregiving experience for rural as compared with urban adult-child caregivers caring for parents with dementia in China. Based on the literature review and Kramer.s (1997) caregiver adaptation model, six concepts and their relationships of caregiving experience were studied: severity of the care receivers. dementia, caregivers. appraisal of role strain and role gain, negative and positive well-being outcomes, and health related quality of life. Furthermore, four influencing factors (i.e., filial piety, social support, resilience, and personal mastery) were studied respectively. Methods: A cross-sectional, comparative design was used to achieve the aims of the study. A questionnaire, which was designed based on the literature review and on Kramer.s (1997) caregiver adaptation model, was completed by 401 adult-child caregivers caring for their parents with dementia from the mental health outpatient departments in five hospitals in the Yunnan province, P.R. China. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed as the main statistical technique for data analyses. Other statistical techniques (e.g., t-tests and Chi-Square tests) were also conducted to compare the demographic characteristics and the measured variables between rural and urban groups. Results: For the first research aim, the results indicated that urban adult-child caregivers in China experienced significantly greater strain and negative well-being outcomes than their rural peers; whereas, the difference on the appraisal of role gain and positive outcomes was nonsignificant between the two groups. The results also indicated that the amounts of severity of care receivers. dementia and caregivers. health related quality of life do not have the same meanings between the two groups. Thus, the levels of these two concepts were not comparable between the rural and urban groups in this study. Moreover, the results also demonstrated that the negative direct effect of gain on negative outcomes in urban caregivers was stronger than that in rural caregivers, suggesting that the urban caregivers tended to use appraisal of role gain to protect themselves from negative well-being outcomes to a greater extent. In addition, the unexplained variance in strain in the urban group was significantly more than that in the rural group, suggesting that there were other unmeasured variables besides the severity of care receivers. dementia which would predict strain in urban caregivers compared with their rural peers. For the second research aim, the results demonstrated that rural adult-child caregivers reported a significantly higher level of filial piety and more social support than their urban counterparts, although the two groups did not significantly differ on the levels of their resilience and personal mastery. Furthermore, although the mediation effects of these four influencing factors on both positive and negative aspects remained constant across rural and urban adult-child caregivers, urban caregivers tended to be more effective in using personal mastery to protect themselves from role strain than rural caregivers, which in turn protects them more from the negative well-being outcomes than was the case with their rural peers. Conclusions: The study extends the application of Kramer.s caregiving adaptation process model (Kramer, 1997) to a sample of adult-child caregivers in China by demonstrating that both positive and negative aspects of caregiving may impact on the caregiver.s health related quality of life, suggesting that both aspects should be targeted in supportive interventions for Chinese family caregivers. Moreover, by demonstrating partial mediation effects, the study provides four influencing factors (i.e., filial piety, social support, resilience, and personal mastery) as specific targets for clinical interventions. Furthermore, the study found evidence that urban adult-child caregivers had more negative but similar positive experience compared to their rural peers, suggesting that the establishment of supportive services for urban caregivers may be more urgent at present stage in China. Additionally, since urban caregivers tended to use appraisal of role gain and personal mastery to protect themselves from negative well-being outcomes than rural caregivers to a greater extend, interventions targeting utility of gain or/and personal mastery to decrease negative outcomes might be more effective in urban caregivers than in rural caregivers. On the other hand, as cultural expectations and expression of filial piety tend to be more traditional in rural areas, interventions targeting filial piety could be more effective among rural caregivers. Last but not least, as rural adult-child caregivers have more existing natural social support than their urban counterparts, mobilising existing natural social support resources may be more beneficial for rural caregivers, whereas, formal supports (e.g., counselling services, support groups and adult day care centres) should be enhanced for urban caregivers.