Bayesian synthetic likelihood

Having the ability to work with complex models can be highly beneficial, but the computational cost of doing so is often large. Complex models often have intractable likelihoods, so methods that directly use the likelihood function are infeasible. In these situations, the benefits of working with likelihood-free methods become apparent. Likelihood-free methods, such as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood that uses the likelihood of an alternative parametric auxiliary model, have been explored throughout the literature as a good alternative when the model of interest is complex. One of these methods is called the synthetic likelihood (SL), which assumes a multivariate normal approximation to the likelihood of a summary statistic of interest. This paper explores the accuracy and computational efficiency of the Bayesian version of the synthetic likelihood (BSL) approach in comparison to a competitor known as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and its sensitivity to its tuning parameters and assumptions. We relate BSL to pseudo-marginal methods and propose to use an alternative SL that uses an unbiased estimator of the exact working normal likelihood when the summary statistic has a multivariate normal distribution. Several applications of varying complexity are considered to illustrate the findings of this paper.

Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: A decomposition analysis

This paper examines the asymmetry of changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions using yearly data from 1949 and monthly data from 1973 for the United States (US). In addition, decomposition analysis is applied to investigate the relative roles of various proximate contributing factors to observed changes in total and per capita CO2 emissions and emissions intensity, over business cycle phases. The results suggest, inter alia, that aggregate emissions and emissions intensity reduce much faster in contractions than they increase in expansions. In addition, unlike the three previous expansions, in the most recent post-GFC US expansion, emissions per capita have continued to decline, and at a rate very similar to the rate of reduction in preceding contractions. This suggests the real possibility that the most recent contraction may have had an ongoing impact on the path of per capita emissions well beyond the immediate impact experienced during the contraction itself.

8-13 Hz fluctuations in rectal pressure are an objective marker of clitorally-induced orgasm in women

Orgasm is a subjective experience accompanied by involuntary muscle contractions. We hypothesized that orgasm in women would be distinguishable by frequency analysis of a perineal muscle-derived signal. Rectal pressure, an index of perineal muscle activity, was measured continuously in 23 healthy women during different sexual tasks: receiving clitoral stimulation, imitation of orgasm, and attempt to reach orgasm, in which case the women were asked to report whether orgasm had been reached ("orgasm") or not ("failed orgasm attempt"). We performed spectral analysis on the rectal pressure data and calculated the spectral power in the frequency bands delta (0.5-4 Hz), theta (4-8 Hz), alpha (8-13 Hz), and beta (13-25 Hz). The most significant and most important difference in spectral power between orgasm and both control motor tasks (imitation of orgasm and failed orgasm attempt) was found in the alpha band. An objective rule based on spectral power in the alpha band recognized 94% (29/31) of orgasms and correctly labeled 69% (44/64) of all orgasm attempts as either successful or failed. Because outbursts of alpha fluctuations in rectal pressure only occurred during orgasm and not during voluntary imitation of orgasm or failed attempts, we propose that they represent involuntary contractions of muscles in the rectal vicinity. This is the first objective and quantitative measure that has a strong correspondence with the subjective experience of orgasm.

Factors influencing kinetic and equilibrium behaviour of sodium ion exchange with strong acid cation resin

This study reports an investigation of the ion exchange treatment of sodium chloride solutions in relation to use of resin technology for applications such as desalination of brackish water. In particular, a strong acid cation (SAC) resin (DOW Marathon C) was studied to determine its capacity for sodium uptake and to evaluate the fundamentals of the ion exchange process involved. Key questions to answer included: impact of resin identity; best models to simulate the kinetics and equilibrium exchange behaviour of sodium ions; difference between using linear least squares (LLS) and non-linear least squares (NLLS) methods for data interpretation; and, effect of changing the type of anion in solution which accompanied the sodium species. Kinetic studies suggested that the exchange process was best described by a pseudo first order rate expression based upon non-linear least squares analysis of the test data. Application of the Langmuir Vageler isotherm model was recommended as it allowed confirmation that experimental conditions were sufficient for maximum loading of sodium ions to occur. The Freundlich expression best fitted the equilibrium data when analysing the information by a NLLS approach. In contrast, LLS methods suggested that the Langmuir model was optimal for describing the equilibrium process. The Competitive Langmuir model which considered the stoichiometric nature of ion exchange process, estimated the maximum loading of sodium ions to be 64.7 g Na/kg resin. This latter value was comparable to sodium ion capacities for SAC resin published previously. Inherent discrepancies involved when using linearized versions of kinetic and isotherm equations were illustrated, and despite their widespread use, the value of this latter approach was questionable. The equilibrium behaviour of sodium ions form sodium fluoride solution revealed that the sodium ions were now more preferred by the resin compared to the situation with sodium chloride. The solution chemistry of hydrofluoric acid was suggested as promoting the affinity of the sodium ions to the resin.

Environmental applications of inorganic-organic clays for recalcitrant organic pollutants removal: Bisphenol A

Bisphenol-A (BPA) adsorption onto inorganic-organic clays (IOCs) was investigated. For this purpose, IOCs synthesised using octadecyltrimethylammonium bromide (ODTMA, organic modifier) and hydroxy aluminium (Al13, inorganic modifier) were used. Three intercalation methods were employed with varying ODTMA concentration in the synthesis of IOCs. Molecular interactions of clay surfaces with ODTMA and Al13 and their arrangements within the interlayers were determined using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Surface area and porous structure of IOCs were determined by applying Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller (BET) method to N2 adsorption-desorption isotherms. Surface area decreased upon ODTMA intercalation while it increased with Al13 pillaring. As a result, BET specific surface area of IOCs was considerably higher than those of organoclays. Initial concentration of BPA, contact time and adsorbent dose significantly affected BPA adsorption into IOCs. Pseudo-second order kinetics model is the best fit for BPA adsorption into IOCs. Both Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption isotherms were applicable for BPA adsorption (R2 > 0.91) for IOCs. Langmuir maximum adsorption capacity for IOCs was as high as 109.89 mg g‒1 and it was closely related to the loaded ODTMA amount into the clay. Hydrophobic interactions between long alkyl chains of ODTMA and BPA are responsible for BPA adsorption into IOCs.

Behaviour of natural zeolites used for the treatment of simulated and actual coal seam gas water

Coal seam gas operations produce significant quantities of associated water which often require demineralization. Ion exchange with natural zeolites has been proposed as a possible approach. The interaction of natural zeolites with solutions of sodium chloride and sodium bicarbonate in addition to coal seam gas water is not clear. Hence, we investigated ion exchange kinetics, equilibrium, and column behaviour of an Australian natural zeolite. Kinetic tests suggested that the pseudo first order equation best simulated the data. Intraparticle diffusion was part of the rate limiting step and more than one diffusion process controlled the overall rate of sodium ion uptake. Using a constant mass of zeolite and variable concentration of either sodium chloride or sodium bicarbonate resulted in a convex isotherm which was fitted by a Langmuir model. However, using a variable mass of zeolite and constant concentration of sodium ions revealed that the exchange of sodium ions with the zeolite surface sites was in fact unfavourable. Sodium ion exchange from bicarbonate solutions (10.3 g Na/kg zeolite) was preferred relative to exchange from sodium chloride solutions (6.4 g Na/kg zeolite). The formation of calcium carbonate species was proposed to explain the observed behaviour. Column studies of coal seam gas water showed that natural zeolite had limited ability to reduce the concentration of sodium ions (loading 2.1 g Na/kg zeolite) with rapid breakthrough observed. It was concluded that natural zeolites may not be suitable for the removal of cations from coal seam gas water without improvement of their physical properties.

Business busts and U.S. auditors' interest in fraud detection: Evidence from the 20th century

We find evidence that U.S. auditors increased their attention to fraud detection during or immediately after the economic contractions of the 20th century, based on a content analysis of the 12 volumes of the 20th-century auditing reference series Montgomery’s Auditing. Contractions, however, do not seem to have affected auditors’ attention to the formal goal of fraud detection. The study suggests that auditors’ aversion to the heightened risks of fraud during economic downturns leads them to focus more on fraud detection at those times regardless of the particular guidance in formal audit standards. This study is the first to find some evidence of a recession-influenced difference between fraud detection practices and formal fraud detection goals.

The effect of high versus low intensity heat acclimation on performance and neuromuscular responses

This study examined the effect of exercise intensity and duration during 5-day heat acclimation (HA) on cycling performance and neuromuscular responses. 20 recreationally trained males completed a ‘baseline’ trial followed by 5 consecutive days HA, and a ‘post-acclimation’ trial. Baseline and post-acclimation trials consisted of maximal voluntary contractions (MVC), a single and repeated countermovement jump protocol, 20 km cycling time trial(TT) and 5x6 s maximal sprints (SPR). Cycling trials were undertaken in 33.0 ± 0.8 °C and 60 ± 3% relative humidity.Core(Tcore), and skin temperatures (Tskin), heart rate (HR), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and thermal sensation were recorded throughout cycling trials. Participants were assigned to either 30 min high-intensity (30HI) or 90 min low-intensity (90LI) cohorts for HA, conducted in environmental conditions of 32.0 ± 1.6 °C. Percentage change time to complete the 20 km TT for the 90LI cohort was significantly improved post-acclimation(-5.9 ± 7.0%; P=0.04) compared to the 30HI cohort (-0.18 ± 3.9%; P<0.05). The 30HI cohort showed greatest improvements in power output (PO) during post-acclimation SPR1 and 2 compared to 90LI (546 ± 128 W and 517 ± 87 W,respectively; P<0.02). No differences were evident for MVC within 30HI cohort, however, a reduced performance indicated by % change within the 90LI (P=0.04). Compared to baseline, mean Tcore was reduced post-acclimation within the 30HI cohort (P=0.05) while mean Tcore and HR were significantly reduced within the 90LI cohort (P=0.01 and 0.04, respectively). Greater physiological adaptations and performance improvements were noted within the 90LI cohort compared to the 30HI. However, 30HI did provide some benefit to anaerobic performance including sprint PO and MVC. These findings suggest specifying training duration and intensity during heat acclimation may be useful for specific post-acclimation performance.

Efficient content-based image retrieval based on multi-feature fusion

The increased availability of image capturing devices has enabled collections of digital images to rapidly expand in both size and diversity. This has created a constantly growing need for efficient and effective image browsing, searching, and retrieval tools. Pseudo-relevance feedback (PRF) has proven to be an effective mechanism for improving retrieval accuracy. An original, simple yet effective rank-based PRF mechanism (RB-PRF) that takes into account the initial rank order of each image to improve retrieval accuracy is proposed. This RB-PRF mechanism innovates by making use of binary image signatures to improve retrieval precision by promoting images similar to highly ranked images and demoting images similar to lower ranked images. Empirical evaluations based on standard benchmarks, namely Wang, Oliva & Torralba, and Corel datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed RB-PRF mechanism in image retrieval.

Modelling Cued-Target Recall using Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation

This article presents and evaluates Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation using Cued-Target Recall Memory Modelling over multiple sources of Free Association data. Two components were evaluated: Whether Quantum Inspired models of Target Activation would provide a better framework than their classical psychological counterparts and how robust these models are across the different sources of Free Association data. In previous work, a formal model of cued-target recall did not exist and as such Target Activation was unable to be assessed directly. Further to that, the data source used was suspected of suffering from temporal and geographical bias. As a consequence, Target Activation was measured against cued-target recall data as an approximation of performance. Since then, a formal model of cued-target recall (PIER3) has been developed [10] with alternative sources of data also becoming available. This allowed us to directly model target activation in cued-target recall with human cued-target recall pairs and use multiply sources of Free Association Data. Featural Characteristics known to be important to Target Activation were measured for each of the data sources to identify any major differences that may explain variations in performance for each of the models. Each of the activation models were used in the PIER3 memory model for each of the data sources and was benchmarked against cued-target recall pairs provided by the University of South Florida (USF). Two methods where used to evaluate performance. The first involved measuring the divergence between the sets of results using the Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence with the second utilizing a previous statistical analysis of the errors [9]. Of the three sources of data, two were sourced from human subjects being the USF Free Association Norms and the University of Leuven (UL) Free Association Networks. The third was sourced from a new method put forward by Galea and Bruza, 2015 in which pseudo Free Association Networks (Corpus Based Association Networks - CANs) are built using co-occurrence statistics on large text corpus. It was found that the Quantum Inspired Models of Target Activation not only outperformed the classical psychological model but was more robust across a variety of data sources.