475 resultados para Probabilistic methods
Resumo:
The psychological contract has emerged over the past 60 years as a key analytical device for both academics and practitioners to conceptualise and explain the employment relationship. However, despite the recognised import of this field, some authors suggest it has fallen into a ‘methodological rut’ and is neglecting to empirically assess basic theoretical tenets of the concept – such as the temporal and individualised, subjective nature of the construct. This paper describes the research design of a longitudinal, mixed methods study to explore development and change in the psychological contract and outline how the use of individual growth modelling can be a powerful tool in analysing the type of quantitative data collected. Finally, by briefly outlining the benefits of this approach, the paper seeks to offer an alternative methodology to explore the dynamic and intra-individual processes within the psychological contract domain.
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Seven endemic governance problems are shown to be currently present in governments around the globe and at any level of government as well (for example municipal, federal). These problems have their roots traced back through more than two thousand years of political, specifically ‘democratic’, history. The evidence shows that accountability, transparency, corruption, representation, campaigning methods, constitutionalism and long-term goals were problematic for the ancient Athenians as well as modern international democratisation efforts encompassing every major global region. Why then, given the extended time period humans have had to deal with these problems, are they still present? At least part of the answer to this question is that philosophers, academics and NGOs as well as MNOs have only approached these endemic problems in a piecemeal manner with a skewed perspective on democracy. Their works have also been subject to the ebbs and flows of human history which essentially started and stopped periods of thinking. In order to approach the investigation of endemic problems in relation to democracy (as the overall quest of this thesis was to generate prescriptive results for the improvement of democratic government), it was necessary to delineate what exactly is being written about when using the term ‘democracy’. It is common knowledge that democracy has no one specific definition or practice, even though scholars and philosophers have been attempting to create a definition for generations. What is currently evident, is that scholars are not approaching democracy in an overly simplified manner (that is, it is government for the people, by the people) but, rather, are seeking the commonalities that democracies share, in other words, those items which are common to all things democratic. Following that specific line of investigation, the major practiced and theoretical versions of democracy were thematically analysed. After that, their themes were collapsed into larger categories, at which point the larger categories were comparatively analysed with the practiced and theoretical versions of democracy. Four democratic ‘particles’ (selecting officials, law, equality and communication) were seen to be present in all practiced and theoretical democratic styles. The democratic particles fused with a unique investigative perspective and in-depth political study created a solid conceptualisation of democracy. As such, it is argued that democracy is an ever-present element of any state government, ‘democratic’ or not, and the particles are the bodies which comprise the democratic element. Frequency- and proximity-based analyses showed that democratic particles are related to endemic problems in international democratisation discourse. The linkages between democratic particles and endemic problems were also evident during the thematic analysis as well historical review. This ultimately led to the viewpoint that if endemic problems are mitigated the act may improve democratic particles which might strengthen the element of democracy in the governing apparatus of any state. Such may actively minimise or wholly displace inefficient forms of government, leading to a government specifically tailored to the population it orders. Once the theoretical and empirical goals were attained, this thesis provided some prescriptive measures which government, civil society, academics, professionals and/or active citizens can use to mitigate endemic problems (in any country and at any level of government) so as to improve the human condition via better democratic government.
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For the first time in human history, large volumes of spoken audio are being broadcast, made available on the internet, archived, and monitored for surveillance every day. New technologies are urgently required to unlock these vast and powerful stores of information. Spoken Term Detection (STD) systems provide access to speech collections by detecting individual occurrences of specified search terms. The aim of this work is to develop improved STD solutions based on phonetic indexing. In particular, this work aims to develop phonetic STD systems for applications that require open-vocabulary search, fast indexing and search speeds, and accurate term detection. Within this scope, novel contributions are made within two research themes, that is, accommodating phone recognition errors and, secondly, modelling uncertainty with probabilistic scores. A state-of-the-art Dynamic Match Lattice Spotting (DMLS) system is used to address the problem of accommodating phone recognition errors with approximate phone sequence matching. Extensive experimentation on the use of DMLS is carried out and a number of novel enhancements are developed that provide for faster indexing, faster search, and improved accuracy. Firstly, a novel comparison of methods for deriving a phone error cost model is presented to improve STD accuracy, resulting in up to a 33% improvement in the Figure of Merit. A method is also presented for drastically increasing the speed of DMLS search by at least an order of magnitude with no loss in search accuracy. An investigation is then presented of the effects of increasing indexing speed for DMLS, by using simpler modelling during phone decoding, with results highlighting the trade-off between indexing speed, search speed and search accuracy. The Figure of Merit is further improved by up to 25% using a novel proposal to utilise word-level language modelling during DMLS indexing. Analysis shows that this use of language modelling can, however, be unhelpful or even disadvantageous for terms with a very low language model probability. The DMLS approach to STD involves generating an index of phone sequences using phone recognition. An alternative approach to phonetic STD is also investigated that instead indexes probabilistic acoustic scores in the form of a posterior-feature matrix. A state-of-the-art system is described and its use for STD is explored through several experiments on spontaneous conversational telephone speech. A novel technique and framework is proposed for discriminatively training such a system to directly maximise the Figure of Merit. This results in a 13% improvement in the Figure of Merit on held-out data. The framework is also found to be particularly useful for index compression in conjunction with the proposed optimisation technique, providing for a substantial index compression factor in addition to an overall gain in the Figure of Merit. These contributions significantly advance the state-of-the-art in phonetic STD, by improving the utility of such systems in a wide range of applications.
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With regard to the long-standing problem of the semantic gap between low-level image features and high-level human knowledge, the image retrieval community has recently shifted its emphasis from low-level features analysis to high-level image semantics extrac- tion. User studies reveal that users tend to seek information using high-level semantics. Therefore, image semantics extraction is of great importance to content-based image retrieval because it allows the users to freely express what images they want. Semantic content annotation is the basis for semantic content retrieval. The aim of image anno- tation is to automatically obtain keywords that can be used to represent the content of images. The major research challenges in image semantic annotation are: what is the basic unit of semantic representation? how can the semantic unit be linked to high-level image knowledge? how can the contextual information be stored and utilized for image annotation? In this thesis, the Semantic Web technology (i.e. ontology) is introduced to the image semantic annotation problem. Semantic Web, the next generation web, aims at mak- ing the content of whatever type of media not only understandable to humans but also to machines. Due to the large amounts of multimedia data prevalent on the Web, re- searchers and industries are beginning to pay more attention to the Multimedia Semantic Web. The Semantic Web technology provides a new opportunity for multimedia-based applications, but the research in this area is still in its infancy. Whether ontology can be used to improve image annotation and how to best use ontology in semantic repre- sentation and extraction is still a worth-while investigation. This thesis deals with the problem of image semantic annotation using ontology and machine learning techniques in four phases as below. 1) Salient object extraction. A salient object servers as the basic unit in image semantic extraction as it captures the common visual property of the objects. Image segmen- tation is often used as the �rst step for detecting salient objects, but most segmenta- tion algorithms often fail to generate meaningful regions due to over-segmentation and under-segmentation. We develop a new salient object detection algorithm by combining multiple homogeneity criteria in a region merging framework. 2) Ontology construction. Since real-world objects tend to exist in a context within their environment, contextual information has been increasingly used for improving object recognition. In the ontology construction phase, visual-contextual ontologies are built from a large set of fully segmented and annotated images. The ontologies are composed of several types of concepts (i.e. mid-level and high-level concepts), and domain contextual knowledge. The visual-contextual ontologies stand as a user-friendly interface between low-level features and high-level concepts. 3) Image objects annotation. In this phase, each object is labelled with a mid-level concept in ontologies. First, a set of candidate labels are obtained by training Support Vectors Machines with features extracted from salient objects. After that, contextual knowledge contained in ontologies is used to obtain the �nal labels by removing the ambiguity concepts. 4) Scene semantic annotation. The scene semantic extraction phase is to get the scene type by using both mid-level concepts and domain contextual knowledge in ontologies. Domain contextual knowledge is used to create scene con�guration that describes which objects co-exist with which scene type more frequently. The scene con�guration is represented in a probabilistic graph model, and probabilistic inference is employed to calculate the scene type given an annotated image. To evaluate the proposed methods, a series of experiments have been conducted in a large set of fully annotated outdoor scene images. These include a subset of the Corel database, a subset of the LabelMe dataset, the evaluation dataset of localized semantics in images, the spatial context evaluation dataset, and the segmented and annotated IAPR TC-12 benchmark.
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Tungro is one of the most destructive viral diseases of rice in South and Southeast Asia. It is associated with two viruses---rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) ,and rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV) (Hibino et al 1978). Both viruses are transmitted by the green leafhopper (GLH) Nephotettix virescens (Ling 1979), However, prior acquisition of RTSV is required for Ihe transmission of RTBV alone (Hibino 1983). Plants infected with both viruses show severe stunting and yellowing. Those infected with RTBV alone show mild stunting but no leaf discoloration whereas those infected with RTSV alone do not show any apparent symptoms (Hibino el al 1978). Since the late 1960s, tungro has been mainly managed through varietal resistance (Khush 1989). The instability of resistant varieties in the field (Dahal et .a1 1990) led to a reexamination of the nature of the incorporated sources of resistance and to the adoption of more precise and more accurate screening methods.
Resumo:
The aim of this paper is to aid researchers in selecting appropriate qualitative methods in order to develop and improve future studies in the field of emotional design. These include observations, think-aloud protocols, questionnaires, diaries and interviews. Based on the authors’ experiences, it is proposed that the methods under review can be successfully used for collecting data on emotional responses to evaluate user product relationships. This paper reviews the methods; discusses the suitability, advantages and challenges in relation to design and emotion studies. Furthermore, the paper outlines the potential impact of technology on the application of these methods, discusses the implications of these methods for emotion research and concludes with recommendations for future work in this area.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVES: To compare three different methods of falls reporting and examine the characteristics of the data missing from the hospital incident reporting system. DESIGN: Fourteen-month prospective observational study nested within a randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Rehabilitation, stroke, medical, surgical, and orthopedic wards in Perth and Brisbane, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Fallers (n5153) who were part of a larger trial (1,206 participants, mean age 75.1 � 11.0). MEASUREMENTS: Three falls events reporting measures: participants’ self-report of fall events, fall events reported in participants’ case notes, and falls events reported through the hospital reporting systems. RESULTS: The three reporting systems identified 245 falls events in total. Participants’ case notes captured 226 (92.2%) falls events, hospital incident reporting systems captured 185 (75.5%) falls events, and participant selfreport captured 147 (60.2%) falls events. Falls events were significantly less likely to be recorded in hospital reporting systems when a participant sustained a subsequent fall, (P5.01) or when the fall occurred in the morning shift (P5.01) or afternoon shift (P5.01). CONCLUSION: Falls data missing from hospital incident report systems are not missing completely at random and therefore will introduce bias in some analyses if the factor investigated is related to whether the data ismissing.Multimodal approaches to collecting falls data are preferable to relying on a single source alone.
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Background: International data on child maltreatment are largely derived from child protection agencies, and predominantly report only substantiated cases of child maltreatment. This approach underestimates the incidence of maltreatment and makes inter-jurisdictional comparisons difficult. There has been a growing recognition of the importance of health professionals in identifying, documenting and reporting suspected child maltreatment. This study aimed to describe the issues around case identification using coded morbidity data, outline methods for selecting and grouping relevant codes, and illustrate patterns of maltreatment identified. Methods: A comprehensive review of the ICD-10-AM classification system was undertaken, including review of index terms, a free text search of tabular volumes, and a review of coding standards pertaining to child maltreatment coding. Identified codes were further categorised into maltreatment types including physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional or psychological abuse, and neglect. Using these code groupings, one year of Australian hospitalisation data for children under 18 years of age was examined to quantify the proportion of patients identified and to explore the characteristics of cases assigned maltreatment-related codes. Results: Less than 0.5% of children hospitalised in Australia between 2005 and 2006 had a maltreatment code assigned, almost 4% of children with a principal diagnosis of a mental and behavioural disorder and over 1% of children with an injury or poisoning as the principal diagnosis had a maltreatment code assigned. The patterns of children assigned with definitive T74 codes varied by sex and age group. For males selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, physical abuse was most commonly coded (62.6% of maltreatment cases) while for females selected as having a maltreatment-related presentation, sexual abuse was the most commonly assigned form of maltreatment (52.9% of maltreatment cases). Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that hospital data could provide valuable information for routine monitoring and surveillance of child maltreatment, even in the absence of population-based linked data sources. With national and international calls for a public health response to child maltreatment, better understanding of, investment in and utilisation of our core national routinely collected data sources will enhance the evidence-base needed to support an appropriate response to children at risk.
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The alliance project delivery method is used for approximately one third of all Australian government infrastructure projects representing $8-$10 billion per annum. Despite its widespread use, little is known about the differences between estimated project cost and actual cost over the project lifecycle. This paper presents the findings of research into 14 Australian government alliance case studies investigating the observed cost uplift over each project’s lifecycle. I find that significant cost uplift is likely and that this uplift is greater than that afflicting traditional delivery methods. Furthermore, most of the cost uplift occurs at a different place in the project lifecycle, namely between Business Case and Contractual Commitment.
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To achieve best environmental management practice in Queensland, effort needs to be extended into the private sector. A Regional Landscape Strategy compiled for any substantial new proposal must identify the most promising technique(s) (from an available tool kit of 13) by which a developer (of any type) is more likely to sustain on-site resources while assisting government deliver its future plans in any region of the State. Offsetting may prove to be one of the most effective of these tools. However, policy must address‘offset land mitigation’, whereby the necessary financial incentives are introduced. Practicable methods by which offset sites can be selected, and measurement of their consequent environmental benefit, have now been devised and tested to assist this process.
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The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the validity of using Gaussian mixture models (GMM) for representing probabilistic distributions in a decentralised data fusion (DDF) framework. GMMs are a powerful and compact stochastic representation allowing efficient communication of feature properties in large scale decentralised sensor networks. It will be shown that GMMs provide a basis for analytical solutions to the update and prediction operations for general Bayesian filtering. Furthermore, a variant on the Covariance Intersect algorithm for Gaussian mixtures will be presented ensuring a conservative update for the fusion of correlated information between two nodes in the network. In addition, purely visual sensory data will be used to show that decentralised data fusion and tracking of non-Gaussian states observed by multiple autonomous vehicles is feasible.
A Modified inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation method and the performance on ambiguity resolution
Resumo:
One of the research focuses in the integer least squares problem is the decorrelation technique to reduce the number of integer parameter search candidates and improve the efficiency of the integer parameter search method. It remains as a challenging issue for determining carrier phase ambiguities and plays a critical role in the future of GNSS high precise positioning area. Currently, there are three main decorrelation techniques being employed: the integer Gaussian decorrelation, the Lenstra–Lenstra–Lovász (LLL) algorithm and the inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation (IICD) method. Although the performance of these three state-of-the-art methods have been proved and demonstrated, there is still a potential for further improvements. To measure the performance of decorrelation techniques, the condition number is usually used as the criterion. Additionally, the number of grid points in the search space can be directly utilized as a performance measure as it denotes the size of search space. However, a smaller initial volume of the search ellipsoid does not always represent a smaller number of candidates. This research has proposed a modified inverse integer Cholesky decorrelation (MIICD) method which improves the decorrelation performance over the other three techniques. The decorrelation performance of these methods was evaluated based on the condition number of the decorrelation matrix, the number of search candidates and the initial volume of search space. Additionally, the success rate of decorrelated ambiguities was calculated for all different methods to investigate the performance of ambiguity validation. The performance of different decorrelation methods was tested and compared using both simulation and real data. The simulation experiment scenarios employ the isotropic probabilistic model using a predetermined eigenvalue and without any geometry or weighting system constraints. MIICD method outperformed other three methods with conditioning improvements over LAMBDA method by 78.33% and 81.67% without and with eigenvalue constraint respectively. The real data experiment scenarios involve both the single constellation system case and dual constellations system case. Experimental results demonstrate that by comparing with LAMBDA, MIICD method can significantly improve the efficiency of reducing the condition number by 78.65% and 97.78% in the case of single constellation and dual constellations respectively. It also shows improvements in the number of search candidate points by 98.92% and 100% in single constellation case and dual constellations case.
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Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.