Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Diabetic peripheral neuropathy and retinal tissue thickness

Using retinal imaging, the nature and extent of compromise of retinal structural integrity has been characterized in individuals suffering from diabetic peripheral neuropathy. These findings extend our understanding of the pathological processes involved in diabetic neuropathy and offer novel ophthalmic approaches to the diagnosis and monitoring of this debilitating condition.

Semantic context and visual feature effects in object naming : an fMRI study using arterial spin labeling

Previous behavioral studies reported a robust effect of increased naming latencies when objects to be named were blocked within semantic category, compared to items blocked between category. This semantic context effect has been attributed to various mechanisms including inhibition or excitation of lexico-semantic representations and incremental learning of associations between semantic features and names, and is hypothesized to increase demands on verbal self-monitoring during speech production. Objects within categories also share many visual structural features, introducing a potential confound when interpreting the level at which the context effect might occur. Consistent with previous findings, we report a significant increase in response latencies when naming categorically related objects within blocks, an effect associated with increased perfusion fMRI signal bilaterally in the hippocampus and in the left middle to posterior superior temporal cortex. No perfusion changes were observed in the middle section of the left middle temporal cortex, a region associated with retrieval of lexical-semantic information in previous object naming studies. Although a manipulation of visual feature similarity did not influence naming latencies, we observed perfusion increases in the perirhinal cortex for naming objects with similar visual features that interacted with the semantic context in which objects were named. These results provide support for the view that the semantic context effect in object naming occurs due to an incremental learning mechanism, and involves increased demands on verbal self-monitoring.

The influence of colour and sound on neuronal activation during visual object naming

This paper investigates how neuronal activation for naming photographs of objects is influenced by the addition of appropriate colour or sound. Behaviourally, both colour and sound are known to facilitate object recognition from visual form. However, previous functional imaging studies have shown inconsistent effects. For example, the addition of appropriate colour has been shown to reduce antero-medial temporal activation whereas the addition of sound has been shown to increase posterior superior temporal activation. Here we compared the effect of adding colour or sound cues in the same experiment. We found that the addition of either the appropriate colour or sound increased activation for naming photographs of objects in bilateral occipital regions and the right anterior fusiform. Moreover, the addition of colour reduced left antero-medial temporal activation but this effect was not observed for the addition of object sound. We propose that activation in bilateral occipital and right fusiform areas precedes the integration of visual form with either its colour or associated sound. In contrast, left antero-medial temporal activation is reduced because object recognition is facilitated after colour and form have been integrated.

Fusiform activation to animals is driven by the process, not the stimulus

Previous studies have found that the lateral posterior fusiform gyri respond more robustly to pictures of animals than pictures of manmade objects and suggested that these regions encode the visual properties characteristic of animals. We suggest that such effects actually reflect processing demands arising when items with similar representations must be finely discriminated. In a positron emission tomography (PET) study of category verification with colored photographs of animals and vehicles, there was robust animal-specific activation in the lateral posterior fusiform gyri when stimuli were categorized at an intermediate level of specificity (e.g., dog or car). However, when the same photographs were categorized at a more specific level (e.g., Labrador or BMW), these regions responded equally strongly to animals and vehicles. We conclude that the lateral posterior fusiform does not encode domain-specific representations of animals or visual properties characteristic of animals. Instead, these regions are strongly activated whenever an item must be discriminated from many close visual or semantic competitors. Apparent category effects arise because, at an intermediate level of specificity, animals have more visual and semantic competitors than do artifacts.

A review of modern computational algorithms for Bayesian optimal design

Bayesian experimental design is a fast growing area of research with many real-world applications. As computational power has increased over the years, so has the development of simulation-based design methods, which involve a number of algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo and approximate Bayes methods, facilitating more complex design problems to be solved. The Bayesian framework provides a unified approach for incorporating prior information and/or uncertainties regarding the statistical model with a utility function which describes the experimental aims. In this paper, we provide a general overview on the concepts involved in Bayesian experimental design, and focus on describing some of the more commonly used Bayesian utility functions and methods for their estimation, as well as a number of algorithms that are used to search over the design space to find the Bayesian optimal design. We also discuss other computational strategies for further research in Bayesian optimal design.

Proximal femoral morphology in regions of hard and soft water

This study compared proximal femoral morphology in patients living in soft and hard water regions. The proximal femoral morphology of two groups of 70 patients living in hard and soft water regions with a mean age of 72.3 (range 50 to 87 years) were measured using an antero-posterior radiograph of the non-operated hip with magnification adjusted. The medullary canal diameter at the level of the lesser trochanter (LT) was significantly wider in patients living in the hard water region (mean width 1.9 mm wider; p= 0.003). No statistical significant difference was found in the medullary canal width at 10 cm below the level of LT, Dorr index, or Canal Bone Ratio (CBR). In conclusion, the proximal femoral morphology does differ in patients living in soft and hard water areas. These results may have an important clinical bearing in patients undergoing total hip replacement surgery. Further research is needed to determine whether implant survivorship is affected in patients living in hard and soft water regions.

Studying upper-limb kinematic using inertial sensors embedded in smartphones

Background: In recent years, there have been investigations concerning upper-limbs kinematics by various devices. The latest generation of smartphones often includes inertial sensors with subunits which can detect inertial kinematics. The use of smartphones is presented as a convenient and portable analysis method for studying kinematics in terms of angular mobility and linear acceleration Objective: The aim of this study was to study humerus kinematics through six physical properties that correspond to angular mobility and acceleration in the three axes of space, obtained by a smartphone. Methods: This cross-sectional study recruited healthy young adult subjects. Descriptive and anthropometric independent variables related to age, gender, weight, size, and BMI were included. Six physical properties were included corresponding to two dependent variables for each of three special axes: mobility angle (degrees) and lineal acceleration (meters/seconds2), which were obtained thought the inertial measurement sensor embedded in the iPhone4 smartphone equipped with three two elements for the detection of kinematic variables: a gyroscope and an accelerometer. Apple uses an LIS302DL accelerometer in the iPhone4. The application used to obtain kinematic data was xSensor Pro, Crossbow Technology, Inc., available at the Apple AppStore. The iPhone4 has storage capacity of 20MB. The data-sampling rate was set to 32 Hz, and the data for each analytical task was transmitted as email for analysis and postprocessing The iPhone4 was placed in the right half of the body of each subject located in the middle third of the humerus slightly posterior snugly secured by a neoprene fixation belt. Tasks were explained concisely and clearly. The beginning and the end were decided by a verbal order by the researcher. Participants were placed standing, starting from neutral position, performing the following analytical tasks: 180º right shoulder abduction (eight repetitions) and, after a break of about 3 minutes, 180º right shoulder flexion (eight repetitions). Both tasks were performed with the elbow extended, wrist in neutral position and the palmar area of the hand toward the midline at the beginning and end of the movement. Results: A total of 11 subjects (8 men, 3 woman) were measured, whose mean of age was 24.7 years (SD = 4.22 years) and their average BMI was 22.64 Kg/m2 (SD = 2.29 Kg/m2). The mean of angular mobility collected by the smartphone was bigger in pitch axis for flexion (= 157.28°, SD= 12.35°) and abduction (= 151.71°, SD= 9.70°). With regard to acceleration, the highest peak mean value was shown in the Y motion axis during flexion (= 19.5°/s2, SD = 0.8°/s2) and abduction (= 19.4°/s2, SD = 0.8°/s2). Also, descriptive graphics of analytical tasks performed were obtained. Conclusions: This study shows how humerus contributes to upper-limb motion and it identified movement patterns. Therefore, it supports smartphone as a useful device to analyze upper-limb kinematics. Thanks to this study it´s possible to develop a simple application that facilitates the evaluation of the patient.

Intravitreal drug delivery in retinal disease : are we out of our depth?

Introduction With the ever-increasing global burden of retinal disease, there is an urgent need to vastly improve formulation strategies that enhance posterior eye delivery of therapeutics. Despite intravitreal administration having demonstrated notable superiority over other routes in enhancing retinal drug availability, there still exist various significant physical/biochemical barriers preventing optimal drug delivery into the retina. A further complication lies with an inability to reliably translate laboratory-based retinal models into a clinical setting. Several formulation approaches have recently been evaluated to improve intravitreal therapeutic outcomes, and our aim in this review is to highlight strategies that hold the most promise. Areas covered We discuss the complex barriers faced by the intravitreal route and examine how formulation strategies including implants, nanoparticulate carriers, viral vectors and sonotherapy have been utilized to attain both sustained delivery and enhanced penetration through to the retina. We conclude by highlighting the advances and limitations of current in vitro, ex vivo and in vivo retinal models in use by researchers globally. Expert opinion Various nanoparticle compositions have demonstrated the ability to overcome the retinal barriers successfully; however, their utility is limited to the laboratory setting. Optimization of these formulations and the development of more robust experimental retinal models are necessary to translate success in the laboratory into clinically efficacious outcomes.

Estrogen deficiency-associated bone loss in the maxilla: A methodology to quantify the changes in the maxillary intra-radicular alveolar bone in an ovariectomized rat osteoporosis model

The effects of estrogen deficiency on bone characteristics are site-dependent, with the most commonly studied sites being appendicular long bones (proximal femur and tibia) and axial bones (vertebra). The effect on the maxillary and mandibular bones is still inconsistent and requires further investigation. This study was designed to evaluate bone quality in the posterior maxilla of ovariectomized rats in order to validate this site as an appropriate model to study the effect of osteoporotic changes. Methods: Forty-eight 3-month-old female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into two groups: an ovariectomized group (OVX, n=24) and Sham-operated group (SHAM, n=24). Six rats were randomly sacrificed from both groups at time points 8, 12, 16 and 20 weeks. The samples from tibia and maxilla were collected for Micro CT and histological analysis. For the maxilla, the volume of interest (VOI) area focused on the furcation areas of the first and second molar. Trabecular bone volume fraction (BV/TV, %), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th.), trabecular number (Tb.N.), trabecular separation (Tb.Sp.), and connectivity density (Conn.Dens) were analysed after Micro CT scanning. Results: At 8 weeks the indices BV/TV, Tb.Sp, Tb.N and Conn.Dens showed significant differences (P<0.05) between the OVX and SHAM groups in the tibia. Compared with the tibia, the maxilla developed osteoporosis at a later stage, with significant changes in maxillary bone density only occurring after 12 weeks. Compared with the SHAM group, both the first and second molars of the OVX group showed significantly decreased BV/TV values from 12 weeks, and these changes were sustained through 16 and 20 weeks. For Tb.Sp, there were significant increases in bone values for the OVX group compared with the SHAM group at 12, 16 and 20 weeks. Histological changes were highly consistent with Micro CT results. Conclusion: This study established a method to quantify the changes of intra-radicular alveolar bone in the posterior maxilla in an accepted rat osteoporosis model. The degree of the osteoporotic changes to trabecular bone architecture is site-dependent and at least 3 months are required for the osteoporotic effects to be apparent in the posterior maxilla following rat OVX.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for astronomical model analysis : a case study in galaxy demographics and morphological transformation at high redshift

Approximate Bayesian Computation’ (ABC) represents a powerful methodology for the analysis of complex stochastic systems for which the likelihood of the observed data under an arbitrary set of input parameters may be entirely intractable – the latter condition rendering useless the standard machinery of tractable likelihood-based, Bayesian statistical inference [e.g. conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation]. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of ABC for astronomical model analysis by application to a case study in the morphological transformation of high-redshift galaxies. To this end, we develop, first, a stochastic model for the competing processes of merging and secular evolution in the early Universe, and secondly, through an ABC-based comparison against the observed demographics of massive (Mgal > 1011 M⊙) galaxies (at 1.5 < z < 3) in the Cosmic Assembly Near-IR Deep Extragalatic Legacy Survey (CANDELS)/Extended Groth Strip (EGS) data set we derive posterior probability densities for the key parameters of this model. The ‘Sequential Monte Carlo’ implementation of ABC exhibited herein, featuring both a self-generating target sequence and self-refining MCMC kernel, is amongst the most efficient of contemporary approaches to this important statistical algorithm. We highlight as well through our chosen case study the value of careful summary statistic selection, and demonstrate two modern strategies for assessment and optimization in this regard. Ultimately, our ABC analysis of the high-redshift morphological mix returns tight constraints on the evolving merger rate in the early Universe and favours major merging (with disc survival or rapid reformation) over secular evolution as the mechanism most responsible for building up the first generation of bulges in early-type discs.

Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Varenicline decreases ethanol intake and increases dopamine release via neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptors in the nucleus accumbens

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Varenicline, a neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR) modulator, decreases ethanol consumption in rodents and humans. The proposed mechanism of action for varenicline to reduce ethanol consumption has been through modulation of dopamine (DA) release in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) via α4*-containing nAChRs in the ventral tegmental area (VTA). However, presynaptic nAChRs on dopaminergic terminals in the NAc have been shown to directly modulate dopaminergic signalling independently of neuronal activity from the VTA. In this study, we determined whether nAChRs in the NAc play a role in varenicline’s effects on ethanol consumption. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH Rats were trained to consume ethanol using the intermittent-access two-bottle choice protocol for 10 weeks. Ethanol intake was measured after varenicline or vehicle was microinfused into the NAc (core, shell or core-shell border) or the VTA (anterior or posterior). The effect of varenicline treatment on DA release in the NAc was measured using both in vivo microdialysis and in vitro fast-scan cyclic voltammetry (FSCV). KEY RESULTS Microinfusion of varenicline into the NAc core and core-shell border, but not into the NAc shell or VTA, reduced ethanol intake following long-term ethanol consumption. During microdialysis, a significant enhancement in accumbal DA release occurred following systemic administration of varenicline and FSCV showed that varenicline also altered the evoked release of DA in the NAc. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS Following long-term ethanol consumption, varenicline in the NAc reduces ethanol intake, suggesting that presynaptic nAChRs in the NAc are important for mediating varenicline’s effects on ethanol consumption.

Can measures of limb loading and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver provide an index of early functional recovery following unilateral total hip arthroplasty?

Objective: To investigate limb loading and dynamic stability during squatting in the early functional recovery of total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Design: Cohort study Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation clinic. Participants: A random sample of 61 THA patients (34♂/27♀; 62±9 yrs, 77±14 kg, 174±9 cm) was assessed twice, 13.2±3.8 days (PRE) and 26.6±3.3 days post-surgery (POST), and compared with a healthy reference group (REF) (22♂/16♀; 47±12yrs; 78±20kg; 175±10cm). Interventions: THA patients received two weeks of standard in-patient rehabilitation. Main Outcome Measure(s): Inter-limb vertical force distribution and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver, as defined by the root mean square (RMS) of the center of pressure in antero-posterior and medio-lateral directions, of operated (OP) and non-operated (NON)limbs. Self-reported function was assessed via FFb-H-OA 2.0 questionnaire. Results: At PRE, unloading of the OP limb was 15.8% greater (P<.001, d=1.070) and antero-posterior and medio-lateral center of pressure RMS were 30-34% higher in THA than REF P<.05). Unloading was reduced by 12.8% towards a more equal distribution from PRE to POST (P<.001, d=0.874). Although medio-lateral stability improved between PRE and POST (OP: 14.8%, P=.024, d=0.397; NON: 13.1%, P=.015, d=0.321), antero-posterior stability was not significantly different. Self-reported physical function improved by 15.8% (P<.001, d=0.965). Conclusion(s): THA patients unload the OP limb and are dynamically more unstable during squatting in the early rehabilitation phase following total hip replacement than healthy adults. Although loading symmetry and medio-lateral stability improved to the level of healthy adults with rehabilitation, antero-posterior stability remained impaired. Measures of dynamic stability and load symmetry during squatting provide quantitative information that can be used to clinically monitor early functional recovery from THA.