Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Aerothermal-strucutral analysis of a rocket launched Mach 8 scramjet experiment : ascent

This paper reports on the methodology and results of a weak-coupled aerothermalstructural analysis on the ascent phase of the SCRAMSPACE Mach 8 scramjet flight experiment. This vehicle was essentially un-shrouded during the flight trajectory, relying on the thin, 5mm thick aluminium external shell of the payload to maintain structural integrity and protect the flight experiment. As such, understanding the thermal-structural response of the vehicle was imperative to mission success. Using two- and three-dimensional models, an iterative procedure was employed to compute the flowfield, convective heating, wall temperatures and structural coupling at flight times covering both peak heating and peak surface temperature. Accounting for such coupling resulted in a 150K reduction in wall temperature compared to the more conservative cold wall assumption. Despite this, peak temperatures remained of the order of 550 K. Further, thermally induced stresses within these regions were in excess of four times the material failure limits. Irreversible material failure during ascent was therefore concluded likely to occur on the external shell. Two alternate materials, steel 1006 and copper, were therefore assessed with the results indicating that steel sections on the external shell resulted in the best thermal-structural response of the payload.

A vibrational spectroscopic study of the borate mineral ezcurrite Na4B10O17·7H2O – Implications for the molecular structure

We have studied the boron containing mineral ezcurrite Na4B10O17·7H2O using electron microscopy and vibrational spectroscopy. Both tetrahedral and trigonal boron units are observed. The nominal resolution of the Raman spectrometer is of the order of 2 cm−1 and as such is sufficient enough to identify separate bands for the stretching bands of the two boron isotopes. The Raman band at 1037 cm−1 is assigned to BO stretching vibration. Raman bands at 1129, 1163, 1193 cm−1 are attributed to BO stretching vibration of the tetrahedral units. The Raman band at 947 cm−1 is attributed to the antisymmetric stretching modes of tetrahedral boron. The sharp Raman peak at 1037 cm−1 is from the 11-B component such a mode, then it should have a smaller 10-B satellite near (1.03) × (1037) = 1048 cm−1, and indeed a small peak at 1048 is observed. The broad Raman bands at 3186, 3329, 3431, 3509, 3547 and 3576 cm−1 are assigned to water stretching vibrations. Broad infrared bands at 3170, 3322, 3419, 3450, 3493, 3542, 3577 and 3597 cm−1 are also assigned to water stretching vibrations. Infrared bands at 1330, 1352, 1389, 1407, 1421 and 1457 cm−1 are assigned to the antisymmetric stretching vibrations of trigonal boron. The observation of so many bands suggests that there is considerable variation in the structure of ezcurrite. Infrared bands at 1634, 1646 and 1681 cm−1 are assigned to water bending modes. The number of water bending modes is in harmony with the number of water stretching vibrations.

Tailoring surface properties and structure of layered double hydroxides using silanes with different number of functional groups

Four silanes, trimethylchlorosilane (TMCS), dimethyldiethoxylsilane (DMDES), 3-aminopropyltriethoxysilane (APTES) and tetraethoxysilane (TEOS), were adopted to graft layered double hydroxides (LDH) via an induced hydrolysis silylation method (IHS). Fourier transform infrared spectra (FTIR) and 29Si MAS nuclear magnetic resonance spectra (29Si MAS NMR) indicated that APTES and TEOS can be grafted onto LDH surfaces via condensation with hydroxyl groups of LDH, while TMCS and DMDES could only be adsorbed on the LDH surface with a small quantity. A combination of X-ray diffraction patterns (XRD) and 29Si MAS NMR spectra showed that silanes were exclusively present in the external surface and had little influence on the long range order of LDH. The surfactant intercalation experiment indicated that the adsorbed and/or grafted silane could not fix the interlamellar spacing of the LDH. However, they will form crosslink between the particles and affect the further surfactant intercalation in the silylated samples. The replacement of water by ethanol in the tactoids and/or aggregations and the polysiloxane oligomers formed during silylation procedure can dramatically increase the value of BET surface area (SBET) and total pore volumes (Vp) of the products.

Structural characterization of the borate mineral inyoite – CaB3O3(OH)5⋅4(H2O)

We have studied the mineral Ca(H4B3O7)(OH)⋅4(H2O) or CaB3O3(OH)5⋅4(H2O) using electron microscopy and vibrational spectroscopy. The mineral has been characterized by a range of techniques including X-ray diffraction, thermal analysis, electron microscopy with EDX and vibrational spectroscopy. Electron microscopy shows a pure phase and the chemical analysis shows the presence of calcium only. The nominal resolution of the Raman spectrometer is of the order of 2 cm−1 and as such is sufficient enough to identify separate bands for the stretching bands of the two boron isotopes. Raman and infrared bands are assigned to the stretching and bending modes of trigonal and tetrahedral boron and the stretching modes of the hydroxyl and water units. By using a combination of techniques we have characterized the borate mineral inyoite.

The molecular structure of the borate mineral szaibelyite MgBO2(OH): A vibrational spectroscopic study

We have studied the borate mineral szaibelyite MgBO2(OH) using electron microscopy and vibrational spectroscopy. EDS spectra show a phase composed of Mg with minor amounts of Fe. Both tetrahedral and trigonal boron units are observed. The nominal resolution of the Raman spectrometer is of the order of 2 cm−1 and as such is sufficient enough to identify separate bands for the stretching bands of the two boron isotopes. The Raman band at 1099 cm−1 with a shoulder band at 1093 cm−1 is assigned to BO stretching vibration. Raman bands at 1144, 1157, 1229, 1318 cm−1 are attributed to the BOH in-plane bending modes. Raman bands at 836 and 988 cm−1 are attributed to the antisymmetric stretching modes of tetrahedral boron. The infrared bands at 3559 and 3547 cm−1 are assigned to hydroxyl stretching vibrations. Broad infrared bands at 3269 and 3398 cm−1 are assigned to water stretching vibrations. Infrared bands at 1306, 1352, 1391, 1437 cm−1 are assigned to the antisymmetric stretching vibrations of trigonal boron. Vibrational spectroscopy enables aspects of the molecular structure of the borate mineral szaibelyite to be assessed.

Performance evaluation of non-thermal plasma on particulate matter, ozone and CO2 correlation for diesel exhaust emission reduction

This study is seeking to investigate the effect of non-thermal plasma technology in the abatement of particulate matter (PM) from the actual diesel exhaust. Ozone (O3) strongly promotes PM oxidation, the main product of which is carbon dioxide (CO2). PM oxidation into the less harmful product (CO2) is the main objective whiles the correlation between PM, O3 and CO2 is considered. A dielectric barrier discharge reactor has been designed with pulsed power technology to produce plasma inside the diesel exhaust. To characterise the system under varied conditions, a range of applied voltages from 11 kVPP to 21kVPP at repetition rates of 2.5, 5, 7.5 and 10 kHz, have been experimentally investigated. The results show that by increasing the applied voltage and repetition rate, higher discharge power and CO2 dissociation can be achieved. The PM removal efficiency of more than 50% has been achieved during the experiments and high concentrations of ozone on the order of a few hundreds of ppm have been observed at high discharge powers. Furthermore, O3, CO2 and PM concentrations at different plasma states have been analysed for time dependence. Based on this analysis, an inverse relationship between ozone concentration and PM removal has been found and the role of ozone in PM removal in plasma treatment of diesel exhaust has been highlighted.

The ethics of corporate governance: A (South)African perspective

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the developments in South African corporate governance since the end of apartheid, with a view to identifying themes and points of convergence and/or divergence with other models. Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents a critical review of South African corporate governance in the context of political and economic developments. Where relevant, aspects of corporate governance theory (in particular the stakeholder and shareholder debate) are considered in the South African context. Findings – South African corporate governance can be seen to broadly follow Anglo‐American examples with the notable exception of the stakeholder approach of the two King reports. This approach emphasises the responsibilities of companies to various stakeholders and encourages stakeholder engagement as an integral element of company strategy. There has not, however, been any substantial incorporation of stakeholder interests into formal corporate governance structures such as board structure and financial reporting. Practical implications – The ongoing consideration of corporate governance developments in South Africa is important for its continued development in the country and the region. Originality/value – A review of South African corporate governance is timely given the probable release of the third King report in 2009, together with new company legislation.

Effects of different levels of refractive blur on night-time pedestrian visibility

Purpose The aim of this study was to systematically investigate the effect of different levels of refractive blur and driver age on night-time pedestrian recognition and determine whether clothing that has been shown to improve pedestrian conspicuity is robust to the effects of blur. Methods Night-time pedestrian recognition was measured for 24 visually normal participants (12 younger M=24.9±4.5 years and 12 older adults M=77.6±5.7 years) for three levels of binocular blur (+0.50 D, +1.00 D, +2.00 D) compared to baseline (optimal refractive correction). Pedestrians walked in place on a closed road circuit and wore one of three clothing conditions: i) everyday clothing, ii) a retro-reflective vest and iii) retro-reflective tape positioned on the extremities in a configuration that conveyed biological motion (known as “biomotion”); the order of conditions was randomized between participants. Pedestrian recognition distances were recorded for each blur and pedestrian clothing combination while participants drove an instrumented vehicle around a closed road course. Results The recognition distances for pedestrians were significantly reduced (p<0.05) by all levels of blur compared to baseline. Pedestrians wearing “biomotion” clothing were recognized at significantly longer distances than for the other clothing configurations in all blur conditions. However, these effects were smaller for the older adults, who had much shorter recognition distances for all conditions tested. Conclusions In summary, even small amounts of blur had a significant detrimental effect on night-time pedestrian recognition. Biomotion retro-reflective clothing was effective, even under moderately degraded visibility conditions, for both young and older drivers.

Particle doses in the pulmonary lobes of electronic and conventional cigarette users

The main aim of the present study was to estimate size segregated doses from e-cigarette aerosols as a function of the airway generation number in lung lobes.. After a 2-second puff, 7.7×1010 particles (DTot) with a surface area of 3.6×103 mm2 (STot), and 3.3×1010 particles with a surface area of 4.2×103 mm2 were deposited in the respiratory system for the electronic and conventional cigarettes, respectively. Alveolar and tracheobronchial deposited doses were compared to the ones received by non-smoking individuals in Western countries, showing a similar order of magnitude. Total regional doses (DR), in head and lobar tracheobronchial and alveolar regions, ranged from 2.7×109 to 1.3×1010 particles and 1.1×109 to 5.3×1010 particles, for the electronic and conventional cigarettes, respectively. DR in the right-upper lung lobe was about twice that found in left-upper lobe and 20% greater in right-lower lobe than the left-lower lobe.

GPU accelerated algorithms for computing matrix function vector products with applications to exponential integrators and fractional diffusion

The efficient computation of matrix function vector products has become an important area of research in recent times, driven in particular by two important applications: the numerical solution of fractional partial differential equations and the integration of large systems of ordinary differential equations. In this work we consider a problem that combines these two applications, in the form of a numerical solution algorithm for fractional reaction diffusion equations that after spatial discretisation, is advanced in time using the exponential Euler method. We focus on the efficient implementation of the algorithm on Graphics Processing Units (GPU), as we wish to make use of the increased computational power available with this hardware. We compute the matrix function vector products using the contour integration method in [N. Hale, N. Higham, and L. Trefethen. Computing Aα, log(A), and related matrix functions by contour integrals. SIAM J. Numer. Anal., 46(5):2505–2523, 2008]. Multiple levels of preconditioning are applied to reduce the GPU memory footprint and to further accelerate convergence. We also derive an error bound for the convergence of the contour integral method that allows us to pre-determine the appropriate number of quadrature points. Results are presented that demonstrate the effectiveness of the method for large two-dimensional problems, showing a speedup of more than an order of magnitude compared to a CPU-only implementation.

Design of a lightweight, modular robotic vehicle for the sustainable intensification of broadacre agriculture

This thesis presents the design process and the prototyping of a lightweight, modular robotic vehicle for the sustainable intensification of broadacre agriculture. Achieved by the joint operation of multiple autonomous vehicles to improve energy consumption, reduce labour, and increase efficiency in the application of inputs for the management of crops. The Small Robotic Farm Vehicle (SRFV) is a lightweight and energy efficient robotic vehicle with a configurable, modular design. It is capable of undertaking a range of agricultural tasks, including fertilising and weed management through mechanical intervention and precision spraying, whilst being more than an order of magnitude lower in weight than existing broadacre agricultural equipment.

Evaluation of a patient-specific finite-element model to simulate conservative treatment in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Study design Retrospective validation study. Objectives To propose a method to evaluate, from a clinical standpoint, the ability of a finite-element model (FEM) of the trunk to simulate orthotic correction of spinal deformity and to apply it to validate a previously described FEM. Summary of background data Several FEMs of the scoliotic spine have been described in the literature. These models can prove useful in understanding the mechanisms of scoliosis progression and in optimizing its treatment, but their validation has often been lacking or incomplete. Methods Three-dimensional (3D) geometries of 10 patients before and during conservative treatment were reconstructed from biplanar radiographs. The effect of bracing was simulated by modeling displacements induced by the brace pads. Simulated clinical indices (Cobb angle, T1–T12 and T4–T12 kyphosis, L1–L5 lordosis, apical vertebral rotation, torsion, rib hump) and vertebral orientations and positions were compared to those measured in the patients' 3D geometries. Results Errors in clinical indices were of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties due to 3D reconstruction; for instance, Cobb angle was simulated with a root mean square error of 5.7°, and rib hump error was 5.6°. Vertebral orientation was simulated with a root mean square error of 4.8° and vertebral position with an error of 2.5 mm. Conclusions The methodology proposed here allowed in-depth evaluation of subject-specific simulations, confirming that FEMs of the trunk have the potential to accurately simulate brace action. These promising results provide a basis for ongoing 3D model development, toward the design of more efficient orthoses.

Use of modal flexibility method to detect damage in suspended cables and the effects of cable parameters

Modal flexibility is a widely accepted technique to detect structural damage using vibration characteristics. Its application to detect damage in long span large diameter cables such as those used in suspension bridge main cables has not received much attention. This paper uses the modal flexibility method incorporating two damage indices (DIs) based on lateral and vertical modes to localize damage in such cables. The competency of those DIs in damage detection is tested by the numerically obtained vibration characteristics of a suspended cable in both intact and damaged states. Three single damage cases and one multiple damage case are considered. The impact of random measurement noise in the modal data on the damage localization capability of these two DIs is next examined. Long span large diameter cables are characterized by the two critical cable parameters named bending stiffness and sag-extensibility. The influence of these parameters in the damage localization capability of the two DIs is evaluated by a parametric study with two single damage cases. Results confirm that the damage index based on lateral vibration modes has the ability to successfully detect and locate damage in suspended cables with 5% noise in modal data for a range of cable parameters. This simple approach therefore can be extended for timely damage detection in cables of suspension bridges and thereby enhance their service during their life spans.

Tuning the resonance properties of 2D carbon nanotube networks towards a mechanical resonator

The capabilities of the mechanical resonator-based nanosensors in detecting ultra-small mass or force shifts have driven a continuing exploration of the palette of nanomaterials for such application purposes. Based on large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, we have assessed the applicability of a new class of carbon nanomaterials for nanoresonator usage, i.e. the single-wall carbon nanotube (SWNT) network. It is found that SWNT networks inherit excellent mechanical properties from the constituent SWNTs, possessing a high natural frequency. However, although a high quality factor is suggested from the simulation results, it is hard to obtain an unambiguous Q-factor due to the existence of vibration modes in addition to the dominant mode. The nonlinearities resulting from these extra vibration modes are found to exist uniformly under various testing conditions including different initial actuations and temperatures. Further testing shows that these modes can be effectively suppressed through the introduction of axial strain, leading to an extremely high quality factor in the order of 109 estimated from the SWNT network with 2% tensile strain. Additional studies indicate that the carbon rings connecting the SWNTs can also be used to alter the vibrational properties of the resulting network. This study suggests that the SWNT network can be a good candidate for applications as nanoresonators.