Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Physical and environmental determinants

This chapter describes physical and environmental determinants of the health of Australians, providing a background to the development of successful public health activity. Health determinants are the biomedical, genetic, behavioural, socio-economic and environmental factors that impact on health and wellbeing. These determinants can be influenced by interventions and by resources and systems (AIHW 2006). Many factors combine to affect the health of individuals and communities. People’s circumstances and the environment determine whether the population is healthy or not. Factors such as where people live, the state of their environment, genetics, their education level and income, and their relationships with friends and family, all are likely to impact on their health. The determinants of population health reflect the context of people’s lives; however, people are very unlikely to be able to control many of these determinants (WHO 2007). This chapter and Chapter 6 illustrate how various determinants can relate to, and influence other determinants, as well as health and wellbeing. We believe it is particularly important to provide an understanding of determinants and their relationship to health and illness in order to provide a structure in which a broader conceptualisation of health can be placed. Determinants of health do not exist in isolation from one another. More frequently they work together in a complex system. What is clear to anyone who works in public health is that many factors impact on the health and wellbeing of people. For example, in the next chapter we discuss factors such as living and working conditions, social support, ethnicity and class, income, housing, work stress and the impact of education on the length and quality of people’s lives. In 1974, the influential ‘Lalonde Report’ (Lalonde 1974) described key factors that impact on health status. These factors included lifestyle, environment, human biology and health services. Taking a population health approach builds on the Lalonde Report, and recognises that a range of factors, such as living and working conditions and the distribution of wealth in society, interact to determine the health status of a population. Tackling health determinants has great potential to reduce the burden of disease and promote the health of the general population. In summary, we understand very clearly now that health is determined by the complex interactions between individual characteristics, social and economic factors and physical environments; the entire range of factors that impact on health must be addressed if we are to make significant gains in population health, and focussing interventions on the health of the population or significant sub-populations can achieve important health gains. In 2007, the Australian Government included in the list of National Health Priority Areas the following health issues: cancer control, injury prevention and control, cardiovascular health, diabetes mellitus, mental health, asthma, and arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions. The National Health Priority Areas set the agenda for the Commonwealth, States and Territories, Local Governments and not-for-profit organisations to place attention on those areas considered to be the major foci for action. Many of these health issues are discussed in this chapter and the following chapter.

Ethics and public health

Note: see later edition of this work at http://eprints.qut.edu.au/47632/ This chapter introduces you to the basic ethical principles that underpin public health practice. The themes to be considered in this chapter include: the characteristics of ‘ethics’, the justification for reflecting on ethics and values, the foundations of public health ethics, whether and how we can incorporate ethics and values into our practice and the nature of some of the potential ethical complications of public health practice.

The impact of globalisation on health

After reading this chapter, you should be able to: • understand the concept of globalisation and appreciate its complexity • identify the significant impacts of globalisation on population health, particularly the incidence of communicable and non-communicable diseases • understand the distribution of the global burden of disease in high-, middle- and low-income countries • critically evaluate the factors contributing to the major causes of death in low-income countries • understand some of the achievements of the global public health community and appreciate the challenges it faces.

Health protection

Our understanding of how the environment can impact human health has evolved and expanded over the centuries, with concern and interest dating back to ancient times. For example, over 4000 years ago, a civilisation in northern India tried to protect the health of its citizens by constructing and positioning buildings according to strict building laws, by having bathrooms and drains, and by having paved streets with a sewerage system (Rosen 1993). In more recent times, the ‘industrial revolution’ played a dominant role in shaping the modern world, and with it the modern public health system. This era was signified by rapid progress in technology, the growth of transportation and the expansion of the market economy, which lead to the organisation of industry into a factory system. This meant that labour had to be brought to the factories and by the 1820s, poverty and social distress (including overcrowding and infrequent sewage and garbage disposal) was more widespread than ever. These circumstances, therefore, lead to the rise of the ‘sanitary revolution’ and the birth of modern public health (Rosen 1993). The sanitary revolution has also been described as constituting the beginning of the first wave of environmental concern, which continued until after World War 2 when major advances in engineering and chemistry substantially changed the face of industry, particularly the chemical sector. The second wave of environmental concern came in the mid to late 20th century and was dominated by the environmental or ecology movement. A landmark in this era was the 1962 publication of the book Silent Spring by Rachel Carson. This identified for the first time the dramatic effects on the ecosystem of the widespread use of the organochlorine pesticide, DDT. The third wave of environmental concern commenced in the 1980s and continues today. The accelerated rate of economic development, the substantial increase in the world population and the globalisation of trade have dramatically changed the production methods and demand for goods in both developed and developing countries. This has lead to the rise of ‘sustainable development’ as a key driver in environmental planning and economic development (Yassi et al 2001). The protection of health has, therefore, been a hallmark of human history and is the cornerstone of public health practice. This chapter introduces environmental health and how it is managed in Australia, including a discussion of the key generic management tools. A number of significant environmental health issues and how they are specifically managed are then discussed, and the chapter concludes by discussing sustainable development and its links with environmental health.

Rethinking health planning : a framework for organising information to underpin collaborative health planning

The field of collaborative health planning faces significant challenges created by the narrow focus of the available information, the absence of a framework to organise that information and the lack of systems to make information accessible and guide decision-making. These challenges have been magnified by the rise of the ‘healthy communities movement’, as a result of which, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and evidence-driven health related decision-making. This paper discusses the role of decision support systems as a mechanism to facilitate collaborative health decision-making. The paper presents a potential information management framework to underpin a health decision support system and describes the participatory process that is currently being used to create an online tool for health planners using geographic information systems. The need for a comprehensive information management framework to guide the process of planning for healthy communities has been emphasised. The paper also underlines the critical importance of the proposed framework not only in forcing planners to engage with the entire range of health determinants, but also in providing sufficient flexibility to allow exploration of the local setting-based determinants of health.

Health law : scope, sources and forces

• For the purposes of this chapter, “health law” encapsulates regulation of the medical and health professions, the administration of health services and the maintenance of public health to the extent that it is connected to the provision of health services. • There are diverging views as to whether health law can be regarded as a discrete “area of law”. • Health law draws on other areas of law such as tort law, criminal law and family law. It is also draws upon other disciplines, most notably medical and health ethics. • Social and economic forces have influenced the development and direction of health law, and these forces may become even more influential as the century develops. • The increasingly globalised world has implications for Australia’s health systems and raises questions and creates commitments in respect of the international community. • Technological developments, including in respect of treatment, diagnosis and information management, create ongoing challenges for health law. • Patient rights, human rights and consumerism are increasingly key drivers in the development of health law. • Health law is significant to contemporary Australian society because of the gravity of the topics that fall within its ambit, its social relevance to so many aspects of human existence and endeavour, the important role it plays in protecting the vulnerable, and the extent to which it engages with fundamental principles of justice.

The Capability of Nurse Practitioners may be Diminished by the Use of Controlling Protocols

Nurse practitioners will become a vital component of the health workforce because of the growing need to manage chronic illness, to deliver effective primary health services, and to manage workforce challenges effectively. In addition, the role of nurse practitioner is an excellent example of increased workforce flexibility and changes to occupational boundaries. This paper draws on an Australasian research project which defined the core role of nurse practitioners, and identified capability as the component of their level of practice that makes their service most useful. We argue that any tendency to write specific protocols to define the limits of nurse practitioner practice will reduce the efficacy of their contribution. The distinction we wish to make in this paper is between guidelines aiming to support practice, and protocols which aim to control practice.

The legal framework of the Australian health system

This chapter is about the role of law in the creation and operation of Australian health systems. Accordingly, this chapter discusses how law regulates the way in which health services in Australia are funded, organised, regulated, managed, operated and governed. (The question of how health professionals are regulated is discussed in Chapter 15.) Although the focus of much of health law is on legal mechanisms for the resolution of disputes or disagreements between the state, health providers, professionals, patients and families and friends, and through dispute resolutions processes setting standards for practice, these are only some of the “jobs” that health law performs. In health systems where the state undertakes a significant role in regulating, funding, managing and providing health services, health law also performs an important constitutive function. Health law declares the values upon which the health system is based, shapes social processes to achieve public ends and provides a structure for the complex interactions that occur within a modern health system. Health law regulates decision-makers in health systems by establishing who has the power to participate in decisions and in what circumstances, establishing processes through which decisions are made and creating mechanisms for decision-makers to be held publicly accountable. It is this broader constitutive function of health law that is a primary focus of much of this chapter — how and why governments use their legislative powers to structure and shape the health system.

Is length of experience an appropriate criterion to identify level of expertise?

Clinical experience plays an important role in the development of expertise, particularly when coupled with reflection on practice. There is debate, however, regarding the amount of clinical experience that is required to become an expert. Various lengths of practice have been suggested as suitable for determining expertise, ranging from five years to 15 years. This study aimed to investigate the association between length of experience and therapists’ level of expertise in the field of cerebral palsy with upper limb hypertonicity using an empirical procedure named Cochrane–Weiss–Shanteau (CWS). The methodology involved re-analysis of quantitative data collected in two previous studies. In Study 1, 18 experienced occupational therapists made hypothetical clinical decisions related to 110 case vignettes, while in Study 2, 29 therapists considered 60 case vignettes drawn randomly from those used in Study 1. A CWS index was calculated for each participant's case decisions. Then, in each study, Spearman's rho was calculated to identify the correlations between the duration of experience and level of expertise. There was no significant association between these two variables in both studies. These analyses corroborated previous findings of no association between length of experience and judgemental performance. Therefore, length of experience may not be an appropriate criterion for determining level of expertise in relation to cerebral palsy practice.

Novel car carrier design : prevention of falls from heights

This article reports the details of a research on novel design in the field of semitrailer sector and discuss design by hazard prevention techniques. The novel design made addresses occupational health and safety (OHS)concerns of fall from heights. The research includes a detailed survey of national data sources to examine the fatalities caused due to fall from heights in car carriers. The study investigates OHS recommendations in Australia for semitrailer sector. Often injuries are caused due to drivers working above the 1.5 meter height for loading, unloading of the cars, moving the decks up, down, strapping the cars, and slipperly. The new design is developed using latest computer aided design and engineeing (CAD, CAE), product data management (PDM), virtual design process (VDP). The new car carrier design excels in reducing the risks of injuries to drivers and new bench mark for OHS standards. The new design has all the decks operated with hydraulics and uses unique ratchet lock mechanism (fool proof design) and loading happens at a safe working height (below 1.5 meter). All the cars are strapped on the safe working height, and then car desks operated hydraulically to transfer them to the required position. This also includes the car on the prime mover, which shuttles across from one deck to other using hydraulic and rack-pinion mechanisms. The novel design car carrier solves the problem of falls from height: next step would be to transfer this technology across other similar effected sectors.

A comparison of the driving behavior between remunerated and volunteer drivers

Introduction: Past research suggests that some groups of work-related drivers practice more safe driving behavior than others. However, no research to date has compared the driving behavior of those remunerated for their services and volunteer work-related drivers. As such, based on a theoretical discussion of the organizational and social contexts in which work-related driving occurs, this study hypothesized that volunteers would report safer driving behavior compared with remunerated drivers. Methods: One-hundred and ninety remunerated drivers and fifty-nine volunteers completed a self-reported driving behavior questionnaire. Results: Some support was found for the hypotheses, as volunteers reported more safe driving behavior than remunerated drivers. Specifically, volunteers reported less inattention and tiredness while driving compared to remunerated drivers. Conclusions: The results suggested that organizations need to formalize the roles and responsibilities of the work-related driver, and better integrate driving within the wider occupational health and safety system.

A national framework for disaster health education in Australia

INTRODUCTION: Recent events have heightened awareness of disaster health issues and the need to prepare the health workforce to plan for and respond to major incidents. This has been reinforced at an international level by the World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine, which has proposed an international educational framework. ----------- OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to outline the development of a national educational framework for disaster health in Australia. ----------- METHODS: The framework was developed on the basis of the literature and the previous experience of members of a National Collaborative for Disaster Health Education and Research. The Collaborative was brought together in a series of workshops and teleconferences, utilizing a modified Delphi technique to finalize the content at each level of the framework and to assign a value to the inclusion of that content at the various levels. ----------- FRAMEWORK: The framework identifies seven educational levels along with educational outcomes for each level. The framework also identifies the recommended contents at each level and assigns a rating of depth for each component. The framework is not intended as a detailed curriculum, but rather as a guide for educationalists to develop specific programs at each level. ----------- CONCLUSIONS: This educational framework will provide an infrastructure around which future educational programs in Disaster Health in Australia may be designed and delivered. It will permit improved articulation for students between the various levels and greater consistency between programs so that operational responders may have a consistent language and operational approach to the management of major events.

Assessing the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change.

Health impacts of floods

Introduction: Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. Objectives: The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. Methods: This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. Results: The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the mediumterm, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. Conclusions: This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.