A method for systematically pooling data in very early stage construction price forecasting

Client owners usually need an estimate or forecast of their likely building costs in advance of detailed design in order to confirm the financial feasibility of their projects. Because of their timing in the project life cycle, these early stage forecasts are characterized by the minimal amount of information available concerning the new (target) project to the point that often only its size and type are known. One approach is to use the mean contract sum of a sample, or base group, of previous projects of a similar type and size to the project for which the estimate is needed. Bernoulli’s law of large numbers implies that this base group should be as large as possible. However, increasing the size of the base group inevitably involves including projects that are less and less similar to the target project. Deciding on the optimal number of base group projects is known as the homogeneity or pooling problem. A method of solving the homogeneity problem is described involving the use of closed form equations to compare three different sampling arrangements of previous projects for their simulated forecasting ability by a cross-validation method, where a series of targets are extracted, with replacement, from the groups and compared with the mean value of the projects in the base groups. The procedure is then demonstrated with 450 Hong Kong projects (with different project types: Residential, Commercial centre, Car parking, Social community centre, School, Office, Hotel, Industrial, University and Hospital) clustered into base groups according to their type and size.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks Method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.

Intercultural competence in engineering education : who are we teaching?

BACKGROUND There is little doubt that our engineering graduates’ ability to identify cultural differences and their potential to impact on engineering projects, and to work effectively with these differences is of key importance in the modern engineering practice. Within engineering degree programs themselves there is also a significant need to recognise the impact of changing student and staff profiles on what happens in the classroom. The research described in this paper forms part of a larger project exploring issues of intercultural competence in engineering. PURPOSE This paper presents an observational and survey study of undergraduate and postgraduate engineering students from four institutions working in groups on tasks with a purely technical focus, or with a cultural and humanitarian element. The study sought to explore how students rate their own intercultural competence and team process and whether any differences exist depending on the nature of the task they are working on. We also investigated whether any differences were evident between groups of first year, second year and postgraduate students. DESIGN/METHOD The study used the miniCQS instrument (Ang & Van Dyne, 2008) and a Bales Interaction Process Analysis based scale (Bales, 1950; Carney, 1976) to collect students self ratings of group process, task management, and cultural experience and behaviour. The Bales IPA was also used for coding video observations of students working in groups. Survey data were used to form descriptive variables to compare outcomes across the different tasks and contexts. Observations analysed in Nvivo were used to provide commentary and additional detail on the quantitative data. RESULTS The results of the survey indicated consistent mean scores on each survey item for each group of students, despite vastly different tasks, student backgrounds and educational contexts. Some small, statistically significant mean differences existed, offering some basic insights into how task and student group composition could affect self ratings. Overall though, the results suggest minimal shift in how students view group function and their intercultural experience, irrespective of differing educational experience. CONCLUSIONS The survey results, contrasted with group observations, indicate that either students are not translating their experience (in the group tasks) into critical self assessment of their cultural competence and teamwork, or that they become more critical of team performance and cultural competence as their competence in these areas grows, so their ratings remain consistent. Both outcomes indicate that students need more intensive guidance to build their critical self and peer assessment skills in these areas irrespective of their year level of study.

Engineering across cultures : new learning resources for intercultural competency in engineering

BACKGROUND The work described in this paper has emerged from an ALTC/OLT funded project, Exploring Intercultural Competency in Engineering. The project indentified many facets of culture and intercultural competence that go beyond a culture-as-nationality paradigm. It was clear from this work that resources were needed to help engineering educators introduce students to the complex issues of culture as they relate to engineering practice. A set of learning modules focussing on intercultural competence in engineering practice were developed early on in the project. Through the OLT project, these modules have been expanded into a range of resources covering various aspects of culture in engineering. Supporting the resources, an eBook detailing the ins and outs of intercultural competency has also been developed to assist engineering educators to embed opportunities for students to develop skills in unpacking and managing cross-cultural challenges in engineering practice. PURPOSE This paper describes the key principles behind the development of the learning modules, the areas they cover and the eBook developed to support the modules. The paper is intended as an introduction to the approaches and resources and extends an invitation to the community to draw from, and contribute to this initial work. DESIGN/METHOD A key aim of this project was to go beyond the culture-as-nationality approach adopted in much of the work around intercultural competency (Deardorff, 2011). The eBook explores different dimensions of culture such as workplace culture, culture’s influence on engineering design, and culture in the classroom. The authors describe how these connect to industry practice and explore what they mean for engineering education. The packaged learning modules described here have been developed as a matrix of approaches moving from familiar known methods through complicated activities relying to some extent on expert knowledge. Some modules draw on the concept of ‘complex un-order’ as described in the ‘Cynefin domains’ proposed by Kurtz and Snowden (2003). RESULTS Several of the modules included in the eBook have already been trialled at a variety of institutions. Feedback from staff has been reassuringly positive so far. Further trials are planned for second semester 2012, and version 1 of the eBook and learning modules, Engineering Across Cultures, is due to be released in late October 2012. CONCLUSIONS The Engineering Across Cultures eBook and learning modules provide a useful and ready to employ resource to help educators tackle the complex issue of intercultural competency in engineering education. The book is by no means exhaustive, and nor are the modules, they instead provide an accessible, engineering specific guide to bringing cultural issues into the engineering classroom.

Power of engineering : changing the perceptions of year 9 and 10 female school students towards an engineering career

BACKGROUND The engineering profession in Australia has failed to attract young women for the last decade or so despite all the effort that have gone into promoting engineering as a preferred career choice for girls. It is a missed opportunity for the profession to flourish as a heterogeneous team. Many traditional initiatives and programs have failed to make much impact or at best incremental improvement into attracting and retaining more women in the profession. The reasons why girls and young women in most parts of the world show little interest in engineering haven't changed, despite all the efforts to address them, the issue proposed here in this paper is with the perceptions of engineering in the community and the confidence to pursue it. This gender imbalance is detrimental for the engineering profession, and hence an action-based intervention strategy was devised by the Women in Engineering Qld Chapter of Engineers Australia in 2012 to change the perceptions of school girls by redesigning the engagement strategy and key messages. As a result, the “Power of Engineering Inc” (PoE) was established as a not-for-profit organisation, and is a collaborative effort between government, schools, universities, and industry. This paper examines a case study in changing the perceptions of year 9 and 10 school girls towards an engineering career. PURPOSE To evaluate and determine the effectiveness of an intervention in changing the perceptions of year 9 and 10 school girls about engineering career options, but specifically, “What were their perceptions of engineering before today and have those perceptions changed?” DESIGN/METHOD The inaugural Power of Engineering (PoE) event was held on International Women’s Day, Thursday 8 March 2012 and was attended by 131 high school female students (year 9 and 10) and their teachers. The key message of the day was “engineering gives you the power to change the world”. A questionnaire was conducted with the participating high school female students, collecting both quantitative and qualitative data. The survey instrument has not been validated. RESULTS The key to the success of the event was as a result of collaboration between all participants involved and the connection created between government, schools, universities and industry. Of the returned surveys (109 of 131), 91% of girls would now consider a career in engineering and 57% who had not considered engineering before the day would now consider a career in engineering. Data collected found significant numbers of negative and varying perceptions about engineering careers prior to the intervention. CONCLUSIONS The evidence in this research suggests that the intervention assisted in changing the perceptions of year 9 and 10 female school students towards engineering as a career option. Whether this intervention translates into actual career selection and study enrolment is to be determined. In saying this, the evidence suggests that there is a critical and urgent need for earlier interventions prior to students selecting their subjects for year 11 and 12. This intervention could also play its part in increasing the overall pool of students engaged in STEM education.

Numerical simulation of red blood cells' deformation using SPH method

A numerical simulation method for the Red Blood Cells’ (RBC) deformation is presented in this study. The two-dimensional RBC membrane is modeled by the spring network, where the elastic stretch/compression energy and the bending energy are considered with the constraint of constant RBC surface area. Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method is used to solve the Navier-Stokes equation coupled with the Plasma-RBC membrane and Cytoplasm- RBC membrane interaction. To verify the method, the motion of a single RBC is simulated in Poiseuille flow and compared with the results reported earlier. Typical motion and deformation mechanism of the RBC is observed.

Stability and convergence of a finite volume method for the space fractional advection-dispersion equation

We consider the space fractional advection–dispersion equation, which is obtained from the classical advection–diffusion equation by replacing the spatial derivatives with a generalised derivative of fractional order. We derive a finite volume method that utilises fractionally-shifted Grünwald formulae for the discretisation of the fractional derivative, to numerically solve the equation on a finite domain with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions. We prove that the method is stable and convergent when coupled with an implicit timestepping strategy. Results of numerical experiments are presented that support the theoretical analysis.

Rule-based transit signal priority control method using a real-time transit travel time prediction model

An advanced rule-based Transit Signal Priority (TSP) control method is presented in this paper. An on-line transit travel time prediction model is the key component of the proposed method, which enables the selection of the most appropriate TSP plans for the prevailing traffic and transit condition. The new method also adopts a priority plan re-development feature that enables modifying or even switching the already implemented priority plan to accommodate changes in the traffic conditions. The proposed method utilizes conventional green extension and red truncation strategies and also two new strategies including green truncation and queue clearance. The new method is evaluated against a typical active TSP strategy and also the base case scenario assuming no TSP control in microsimulation. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed method can produce significant benefits in reducing the bus delay time and improving the service regularity with negligible adverse impacts on the non-transit street traffic.

Grouping people in social networks using a weighted multi-constraints clustering method

Grouping users in social networks is an important process that improves matching and recommendation activities in social networks. The data mining methods of clustering can be used in grouping the users in social networks. However, the existing general purpose clustering algorithms perform poorly on the social network data due to the special nature of users' data in social networks. One main reason is the constraints that need to be considered in grouping users in social networks. Another reason is the need of capturing large amount of information about users which imposes computational complexity to an algorithm. In this paper, we propose a scalable and effective constraint-based clustering algorithm based on a global similarity measure that takes into consideration the users' constraints and their importance in social networks. Each constraint's importance is calculated based on the occurrence of this constraint in the dataset. Performance of the algorithm is demonstrated on a dataset obtained from an online dating website using internal and external evaluation measures. Results show that the proposed algorithm is able to increases the accuracy of matching users in social networks by 10% in comparison to other algorithms.

Predicting the localized surface plasmon resonances of spherical nanoparticles on substrate : electrostatic eigenmode method

We present experimental results that demonstrate that the wavelength of the fundamental localised surface plasmon resonance for spherical gold nanoparticles on glass can be predicted using a simple, one line analytical formula derived from the electrostatic eigenmode method. This allows the role of the substrate in lifting mode degeneracies to be determined, and the role of local environment refractive indices on the plasmon resonance to be investigated. The effect of adding silica to the casting solution in minimizing nanopaticle agglomeration is also discussed.

A hybrid smoothed finite element method (H-SFEM) to solid mechanics problems

In this paper, a hybrid smoothed finite element method (H-SFEM) is developed for solid mechanics problems by combining techniques of finite element method (FEM) and Node-based smoothed finite element method (NS-FEM) using a triangular mesh. A parameter is equipped into H-SFEM, and the strain field is further assumed to be the weighted average between compatible stains from FEM and smoothed strains from NS-FEM. We prove theoretically that the strain energy obtained from the H-SFEM solution lies in between those from the compatible FEM solution and the NS-FEM solution, which guarantees the convergence of H-SFEM. Intensive numerical studies are conducted to verify these theoretical results and show that (1) the upper and lower bound solutions can always be obtained by adjusting ; (2) there exists a preferable at which the H-SFEM can produce the ultrasonic accurate solution.

Effect of preparation method of palygorskite-supported Fe and Ni catalysts on catalytic cracking of biomass tar

In this study, the effect of catalyst preparation and additive precursors on the catalytic decomposition of biomass using palygorskite-supported Fe and Ni catalysts was investigated. The catalysts were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). It is concluded that the most active additive precursor was Fe(NO3)3·9H2O. As for the catalyst preparation method, co-precipitation had superiority over incipient wetness impregnation at low Fe loadings.

Knowledge sharing leveraging new product development activities to derive enhanced business performance : mixed method study

Knowledge has been widely recognised as a determinant of business performance. Business capabilities require an effective share of resource and knowledge. Specifically, knowledge sharing (KS) between different companies and departments can improve manufacturing processes since intangible knowledge plays an enssential role in achieving competitive advantage. This paper presents a mixed method research study into the impact of KS on the effectiveness of new product development (NPD) in achieving desired business performance (BP). Firstly, an empirical study utilising moderated regression analysis was conducted to test whether and to what extent KS has leveraging power on the relationship between NPD and BP constructs and variables. Secondly, this empirically verified hypothesis was validated through explanatory case studies involving two Taiwanese manufacturing companies using a qualitative interaction term pattern matching technique. The study provides evidence that knowledge sharing and management activities are essential for deriving competitive advantage in the manufacturing industry.

A preconditioned Lanczos method for space-fractional reaction-diffusion equations on two-dimensional unstructured meshes

We consider a two-dimensional space-fractional reaction diffusion equation with a fractional Laplacian operator and homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. The finite volume method is used with the matrix transfer technique of Ilić et al. (2006) to discretise in space, yielding a system of equations that requires the action of a matrix function to solve at each timestep. Rather than form this matrix function explicitly, we use Krylov subspace techniques to approximate the action of this matrix function. Specifically, we apply the Lanczos method, after a suitable transformation of the problem to recover symmetry. To improve the convergence of this method, we utilise a preconditioner that deflates the smallest eigenvalues from the spectrum. We demonstrate the efficiency of our approach for a fractional Fisher’s equation on the unit disk.

A formal method for attack modelling and detection

This paper presents a formal methodology for attack modeling and detection for networks. Our approach has three phases. First, we extend the basic attack tree approach 1 to capture (i) the temporal dependencies between components, and (ii) the expiration of an attack. Second, using the enhanced attack trees (EAT) we build a tree automaton that accepts a sequence of actions from input stream if there is a traverse of an attack tree from leaves to the root node. Finally, we show how to construct an enhanced parallel automaton (EPA) that has each tree automaton as a subroutine and can process the input stream by considering multiple trees simultaneously. As a case study, we show how to represent the attacks in IEEE 802.11 and construct an EPA for it.