AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0905, May 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, We’ve been offered a lot of press lately about the Federal Government’s plan for the multibillion dollar rollout of its high speed broadband network, which at the moment is being rated to a speed of 100Mb/s. This seems fantastic in comparison to the not atypical 250 to 500kb/s that I receive on my metropolitan cable broadband, which incidentally my service provider rates at theoretical speeds of up to 8 Mb/s. I have no doubt that such a scheme will generate significant advantages to business and consumers. However, I also have some reservations. Only a few of years ago I marvelled at my first 256Mb USB stick, which cost my employer about $90. Last month I purchased a 16Gb stick with a free computer carry bag for $80, which on the back of my envelope has given me about 72 times the value of my first USB stick not including the carry bag! I am pretty sure the technology industry will find a way to eventually push a lot more than 100Mb/s down the optic fibre network just as they have done with pushing several Mb/s ADSL2 down antique copper wire. This makes me wonder about the general problem of inbuilt obsolescence of all things high-tech due to rapid advances in the tech industry. As a transport professional I then think to myself that our industry has been moving forward at somewhat of a slower pace. We certainly have had major milestones having significant impacts, such as the move from horse and cart to the self propelled motor vehicle, sealing and formal geometric design of roads, development of motorways, signalisation of intersections, coordination of networks, to simulation modelling for real time adaptive control (perhaps major change has been at a frequency of 30 years or so?). But now with ITS truly penetrating the transport market, largely thanks to the in-car GPS navigator, smart phone, e-toll and e-ticket, I believe that to avoid our own obsolescence we’re going to need to “plan for ITS” rather than just what we seem to have been doing up until now, that is, to get it out there. And we’ll likely need to do it at a faster pace. It will involve understanding how to data mine enormous data sets, better understanding the human/machine interface, keeping pace with automotive technology more closely, resolving the ethical and privacy chestnuts, and in the main actually planning for ITS to make peoples’ lives easier rather than harder. And in amongst this we’ll need to keep pace with the types of technology advances similar to my USB stick example above. All the while we’ll be making a brand new set of friends in the disciplines that will morph into ITS along with us. Hopefully these will all be “good” problems for our profession to have. I should close in reminding everyone again that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

Assessing the energy efficiency of gear oils via the FZG test machine

Energy efficient lubricants are becoming increasingly popular. This is due to a global increase in environmental awareness combined with the potential of reducing operating costs. A new test method of evaluating the energy efficiency of gear oils has been described in this report. The method involves measuring the power required by an FZG test rig to run while using a particular test lubricant. For each oil that was being evaluated, the rig was run for 10 minutes at a load stage of 10. Six extreme pressure (EP) industrial gear oils of mineral base were tested. The difference in power requirements between the best and the worst performing oils was 2.77 and 3.24 kW, respectively. This equates to a 14.6% reduction in power, a significant amount if considered in relation to a high powered industrial machine. The oils of superior performance were noticed to run at reduced temperatures. They were also more expensive than the other products of lesser performance.

How do other people influence your driving speed? Exploring the 'who' and the 'how' of social influences on speeding from a qualitative perspective

Using only legal sanctions to manage the speed at which people drive ignores the potential benefits of harnessing social factors such as the influence of others. Social influences on driver speeds were explored in this qualitative examination of 67 Australian drivers. Focus group interviews with 8 driver types (young, mid-age and older males and females, and self-identified Excessive and Rare speeders) were guided by Akers’ social learning theory (Akers, 1998). Findings revealed two types of influential others: people known to the driver (passengers and parents), and unknown other drivers. Passengers were generally described as having a slowing influence on drivers: responsibility for the safety of people in the car and consideration for passenger comfort were key themes. In contrast, all but the Rare speeders reported increasing their speed when driving alone. Parental role modelling was also described. In relation to other drivers, key themes included speeding to keep up with traffic flow and perceived pressure to drive faster. This ‘pressure’ from others to ‘speed up’ was expressed in all groups and reported strategies for managing this varied. Encouragingly, examples of actual or anticipated social rewards for speeding were less common than examples of social punishments. Three main themes relating to social punishments were embarrassment, breaching the trust of others, and presenting an image of a responsible driver. Impression management and self-presentation are discussed in light of these findings. Overall, our findings indicate scope to exploit the use of social sanctions for speeding and social praise for speed limit compliance to enhance speed management strategies.

Risk-assessment practices in the private rental sector : implications for low-income renters (Final Report)

This report focuses on risk-assessment practices in the private rental market, with particular consideration of their impact on low-income renters. It is based on the fieldwork undertaken in the second stage of the research process that followed completion of the Positioning Paper. The key research question this study addressed was: What are the various factors included in ‘risk-assessments’ by real estate agents in allocating ‘affordable’ tenancies? How are these risks quantified and managed? What are the key outcomes of their decision-making? The study builds on previous research demonstrating that a relatively large proportion of low-cost private rental accommodation is occupied by moderate- to high-income households (Wulff and Yates 2001; Seelig 2001; Yates et al. 2004). This is occurring in an environment where the private rental sector is now the de facto main provider of rental housing for lower-income households across Australia (Seelig et al. 2005) and where a number of factors are implicated in patterns of ‘income–rent mismatching’. These include ongoing shifts in public housing assistance; issues concerning eligibility for rent assistance; ‘supply’ factors, such as loss of low-cost rental stock through upgrading and/or transfer to owner-occupied housing; patterns of supply and demand driven largely by middle- to high-income owner-investors and renters; and patterns of housing need among low-income households for whom affordable housing is not appropriate. In formulating a way of approaching the analysis of ‘risk-assessment’ in rental housing management, this study has applied three sociological perspectives on risk: Beck’s (1992) formulation of risk society as entailing processes of ‘individualisation’; a socio-cultural perspective which emphasises the situated nature of perceptions of risk; and a perspective which has drawn attention to different modes of institutional governance of subjects, as ‘carriers of specific indicators of risk’. The private rental market was viewed as a social institution, and the research strategy was informed by ‘institutional ethnography’ as a method of enquiry. The study was based on interviews with property managers, real estate industry representatives, tenant advocates and community housing providers. The primary focus of inquiry was on ‘the moment of allocation’. Six local areas across metropolitan and regional Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia were selected as case study localities. In terms of the main findings, it is evident that access to private rental housing is not just a matter of ‘supply and demand’. It is also about assessment of risk among applicants. Risk – perceived or actual – is thus a critical factor in deciding who gets housed, and how. Risk and its assessment matter in the context of housing provision and in the development of policy responses. The outcomes from this study also highlight a number of salient points: 1.There are two principal forms of risk associated with property management: financial risk and risk of litigation. 2. Certain tenant characteristics and/or circumstances – ability to pay and ability to care for the rented property – are the main factors focused on in assessing risk among applicants for rental housing. Signals of either ‘(in)ability to pay’ and/or ‘(in)ability to care for the property’ are almost always interpreted as markers of high levels of risk. 3. The processing of tenancy applications entails a complex and variable mix of formal and informal strategies of risk-assessment and allocation where sorting (out), ranking, discriminating and handing over characterise the process. 4. In the eyes of property managers, ‘suitable’ tenants can be conceptualised as those who are resourceful, reputable, competent, strategic and presentable. 5. Property managers clearly articulated concern about risks entailed in a number of characteristics or situations. Being on a low income was the principal and overarching factor which agents considered. Others included: - unemployment - ‘big’ families; sole parent families - domestic violence - marital breakdown - shift from home ownership to private rental - Aboriginality and specific ethnicities - physical incapacity - aspects of ‘presentation’. The financial vulnerability of applicants in these groups can be invoked, alongside expressed concerns about compromised capacities to manage income and/or ‘care for’ the property, as legitimate grounds for rejection or a lower ranking. 6. At the level of face-to-face interaction between the property manager and applicants, more intuitive assessments of risk based upon past experience or ‘gut feelings’ come into play. These judgements are interwoven with more systematic procedures of tenant selection. The findings suggest that considerable ‘risk’ is associated with low-income status, either directly or insofar as it is associated with other forms of perceived risk, and that such risks are likely to impede access to the professionally managed private rental market. Detailed analysis suggests that opportunities for access to housing by low-income householders also arise where, for example: - the ‘local experience’ of an agency and/or property manager works in favour of particular applicants - applicants can demonstrate available social support and financial guarantors - an applicant’s preference or need for longer-term rental is seen to provide a level of financial security for the landlord - applicants are prepared to agree to specific, more stringent conditions for inspection of properties and review of contracts - the particular circumstances and motivations of landlords lead them to consider a wider range of applicants - In particular circumstances, property managers are prepared to give special consideration to applicants who appear worthy, albeit ‘risky’. The strategic actions of demonstrating and documenting on the part of vulnerable (low-income) tenant applicants can improve their chances of being perceived as resourceful, capable and ‘savvy’. Such actions are significant because they help to persuade property managers not only that the applicant may have sufficient resources (personal and material) but that they accept that the onus is on themselves to show they are reputable, and that they have valued ‘competencies’ and understand ‘how the system works’. The parameters of the market do shape the processes of risk-assessment and, ultimately, the strategic relation of power between property manager and the tenant applicant. Low vacancy rates and limited supply of lower-cost rental stock, in all areas, mean that there are many more tenant applicants than available properties, creating a highly competitive environment for applicants. The fundamental problem of supply is an aspect of the market that severely limits the chances of access to appropriate and affordable housing for low-income rental housing applicants. There is recognition of the impact of this problem of supply. The study indicates three main directions for future focus in policy and program development: providing appropriate supports to tenants to access and sustain private rental housing, addressing issues of discrimination and privacy arising in the processes of selecting suitable tenants, and addressing problems of supply.

Speeding in Australia and China : a comparison of the influence of legal sanctions and enforcement practices on car drivers

Despite increasingly sophisticated speed management strategies, speeding remains a significant contributing factor in 25% of Australia’s fatal crashes. Excessive speed is also a recognised contributor to road trauma in rapidly motorising countries such as China, where increases in vehicle ownership and new drivers, and a high proportion of vulnerable road users all contribute to a high road trauma rate. Speed choice is a voluntary behaviour. Therefore, driver perceptions are important to our understanding of the nature of speeding. This paper reports preliminary qualitative (focus groups) and quantitative (survey) investigations of the perceptions of drivers in Queensland and Beijing. Drivers’ definitions of speeding as well as their perceptions of the influence of legal factors on their reported speeds were explored. Survey participants were recruited from petrol stations (Queensland, n=833) and car washes (Beijing, n=299). Similarities were evident in justifications for exceeding speed limits across samples. Excessive speeds were not deemed as ‘speeding’ when drivers considered that they were safe and under their control, or when speed limits were seen as unreasonably low. This appears linked to perceptions of enforcement tolerances in some instances with higher perceived enforcement thresholds noted in China. Encouragingly, drivers in both countries reported a high perceived risk of apprehension if speeding. However, a substantial proportion of both samples also indicated perceptions of low certainty of receiving penalties when apprehended. Chinese drivers considered sanctions less severe than did Australian drivers. In addition, strategies to avoid detection and penalties were evident in both samples, with Chinese drivers reporting a broader range of avoidant techniques. Implications of the findings for future directions in speed management in both countries are discussed.

Characteristics and predictors of high-range speeding offenders

This paper examines an aspect of the data taken from a larger study evaluating the effect of speeding penalty changes on speeding recidivism in Queensland. Traffic offence data from May 1996 to August 2007 were provided to the research team for two cohorts of offenders: individuals who committed a speeding offence in May 2001; and individuals who committed a speeding offence in May 2003. Data included details of the offenders’ index offence, previous and subsequent traffic offences (speeding and other) and their demographic characteristics. Using this data the aim of this component of the research was to use demographic data and the previous traffic offences of these individuals to explore the characteristics and predictors of high-range speeding offenders. High-range offenders were identified as those individuals who committed two or more speeding offences with a recorded speed of 30 km/hr or more above the speed limit. For the purposes of comparison, low-range offenders (committed one speeding offence in the time-frame and that offence was less than 15 km/hr over the speed limit) and mid-range offenders (all other offenders) were identified. Using Chi-square and logistic regression analyses, characteristics and predictors of high-range speeding offenders were identified. The implications and limitations of this study are also discussed.

Analysis of road potential and bottlenecks based on operating speed

Vehicle detectors have been installed at approximately every 300 meters on each lane on Tokyo metropolitan expressway. Various traffic data such as traffic volume, average speed and time occupancy are collected by vehicle detectors. We can understand traffic characteristics of every point by comparing traffic data collected at consecutive points. In this study, we focused on average speed, analyzed road potential by operating speed during free-flow conditions, and identified latent bottlenecks. Furthermore, we analyzed effects for road potential by the rainfall level and day of the week. It’s expected that this method of analysis will be utilized for installation of ITS such as drive assist, estimation of parameters for traffic simulation and feedback to road design as congestion measures.

Rough set-based reasoning and pattern mining for information filtering

An information filtering (IF) system monitors an incoming document stream to find the documents that match the information needs specified by the user profiles. To learn to use the user profiles effectively is one of the most challenging tasks when developing an IF system. With the document selection criteria better defined based on the users’ needs, filtering large streams of information can be more efficient and effective. To learn the user profiles, term-based approaches have been widely used in the IF community because of their simplicity and directness. Term-based approaches are relatively well established. However, these approaches have problems when dealing with polysemy and synonymy, which often lead to an information overload problem. Recently, pattern-based approaches (or Pattern Taxonomy Models (PTM) [160]) have been proposed for IF by the data mining community. These approaches are better at capturing sematic information and have shown encouraging results for improving the effectiveness of the IF system. On the other hand, pattern discovery from large data streams is not computationally efficient. Also, these approaches had to deal with low frequency pattern issues. The measures used by the data mining technique (for example, “support” and “confidences”) to learn the profile have turned out to be not suitable for filtering. They can lead to a mismatch problem. This thesis uses the rough set-based reasoning (term-based) and pattern mining approach as a unified framework for information filtering to overcome the aforementioned problems. This system consists of two stages - topic filtering and pattern mining stages. The topic filtering stage is intended to minimize information overloading by filtering out the most likely irrelevant information based on the user profiles. A novel user-profiles learning method and a theoretical model of the threshold setting have been developed by using rough set decision theory. The second stage (pattern mining) aims at solving the problem of the information mismatch. This stage is precision-oriented. A new document-ranking function has been derived by exploiting the patterns in the pattern taxonomy. The most likely relevant documents were assigned higher scores by the ranking function. Because there is a relatively small amount of documents left after the first stage, the computational cost is markedly reduced; at the same time, pattern discoveries yield more accurate results. The overall performance of the system was improved significantly. The new two-stage information filtering model has been evaluated by extensive experiments. Tests were based on the well-known IR bench-marking processes, using the latest version of the Reuters dataset, namely, the Reuters Corpus Volume 1 (RCV1). The performance of the new two-stage model was compared with both the term-based and data mining-based IF models. The results demonstrate that the proposed information filtering system outperforms significantly the other IF systems, such as the traditional Rocchio IF model, the state-of-the-art term-based models, including the BM25, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Pattern Taxonomy Model (PTM).

The impact of police speed enforcement practices on self-reported speeding: An exploration of the effects of visibility and mobility

Research has highlighted the relationship between vehicle speed and increased crash risk and severity. Evidence suggests that police speed enforcement, in particular speed camera operations, can be an effective tool for reducing traffic crashes. A quantitative survey of Queensland drivers (n = 852) was conducted to investigate the impact of police speed enforcement methods on self-reported speeding behaviour. Results indicate that visible enforcement was associated with significantly greater self-reported compliance than covert operations irrespective of the mobility of the approach, and the effects on behaviour were longer lasting. The mobility of operations appeared to be moderated the visibility of the approach. Specifically, increased mobility was associated with increase reported compliant behaviour, but only for covert operations, and increased longevity of reported compliant behaviour, but only for overt operations. The perceived effectiveness of various speed enforcement approaches are also analysed across a range of driving scenarios. Results are discussed in light of the small effect sizes. Recommendations for policy and future research are presented.

"There's no way in hell I would pull up" : Deterrent and other effects of vehicle impoundment laws for hooning

Traffic law enforcement is based on deterrence principles, whereby drivers control their behaviour in order to avoid an undesirable sanction. For “hooning”-related driving behaviours in Queensland, the driver’s vehicle can be impounded for 48 hours, 3 months, or permanently depending on the number of previous hooning offences. It is assumed that the threat of losing something of value, their vehicle, will discourage drivers from hooning. While official data shows that the rate of repeat offending is low, an in-depth understanding of the deterrent effects of these laws should involve qualitative research with targeted drivers. A sample of 22 drivers who reported engaging in hooning behaviours participated in focus group discussions about the vehicle impoundment laws as applied to hooning offences in Queensland. The findings suggested that deterrence theory alone cannot fully explain hooning behaviour, as participants reported hooning frequently, and intended to continue doing so, despite reporting that it is likely that they will be caught, and perceiving the vehicle impoundment laws to be extremely severe. The punishment avoidance aspect of deterrence theory appears important, as well as factors over and above legal issues, particularly social influences. A concerning finding was drivers’ willingness to flee from police in order to avoid losing their vehicle permanently for a third offence, despite acknowledging risks to their own safety and that of others. This paper discusses the study findings in terms of the implications for future research directions, enforcement practices and policy development for hooning and other traffic offences for which vehicle impoundment is applied.

‘Speed blurs emotional effect’

Review of 'The Kursk', La Boite Theatre Company, published in The Australian, 3 September 2009.

Seismic performance of brick infilled RC frame structures in low and medium rise buildings in Bhutan

The construction of reinforced concrete buildings with unreinforced infill is common practice even in seismically active country such as Bhutan, which is located in high seismic region of Eastern Himalaya. All buildings constructed prior 1998 were constructed without seismic provisions while those constructed after this period adopted seismic codes of neighbouring country, India. However, the codes have limited information on the design of infilled structures besides having differences in architectural requirements which may compound the structural problems. Although the influence of infill on the reinforced concrete framed structures is known, the present seismic codes do not consider it due to the lack of sufficient information. Time history analyses were performed to study the influence of infill on the performance of concrete framed structures. Important parameters were considered and the results presented in a manner that can be used by practitioners. The results show that the influence of infill on the structural performance is significant. The structural responses such as fundamental period, roof displacement, inter-storey drift ratio, stresses in infill wall and structural member forces of beams and column generally reduce, with incorporation of infill wall. The structures designed and constructed with or without seismic provision perform in a similar manner if the infills of high strength are used.

Treadmill adaptation and verification of self-selected walking speed : a protocol for children

The term self-selected (i.e., individual or comfortable walking pace or speed) is commonly used in the literature (Frost, Dowling, Bar-Or, & Dyson, 1997; Jeng, Liao, Lai, & Hou, 1997; Wergel-Kolmert & Wohlfart, 1999; Maltais, Bar-Or, Pienynowski, & Galea, 2003; Browning & Kram, 2005; Browning, Baker, Herron, & Kram, 2006; Hills, Byrne, Wearing, & Armstrong, 2006) and is identified as the most efficient walking speed, with increased efficiency defined by lower oxygen uptake (VO^sub 2^) per unit mechanical work (Hoyt & Taylor, 1981; Taylor, Heglund, & Maloiy, 1982; Hreljac, 1993). [...] assessing individual and group differences in metabolic energy expenditure using oxygen uptake requires individuals to be comfortable with, and able to accommodate to, the equipment.

Low-fat oxidation may be a factor in obesity among men with schizophrenia

Objective: Obesity associated with atypical antipsychotic medications is an important clinical issue for people with schizophrenia. The purpose of this project was to determine whether there were any differences in resting energy expenditure (REE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) between men with schizophrenia and controls. Method: Thirty-one men with schizophrenia were individually matched for age and relative body weight with healthy, sedentary controls. Deuterium dilution was used to determine total body water and subsequently fat-free mass (FFM). Indirect calorimetry using a Deltatrac metabolic cart was used to determine REE and RQ. Results: When corrected for FFM, there was no significant difference in REE between the groups. However, fasting RQ was significantly higher in the men with schizophrenia than the controls. Conclusion: Men with schizophrenia oxidised proportionally less fat and more carbohydrate under resting conditions than healthy controls. These differences in substrate utilisation at rest may be an important consideration in obesity in this clinical group.