203 resultados para Logic and Probabilistic Models


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The Time magazine ‘Person of theYear’ award is a venerable institution. Established by Time’s founder Henry Luce in 1927 as ‘Man of the Year’, it is an annual award given to ‘a person, couple, group, idea, place, or machine that ‘for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year’ (Time 2002, p. 1). In 2010, the award was given to Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of the social networking site Facebook.There was, however, a strong campaign for the ‘People’s Choice’ award to be given to Julian Assange, the founder and editor-in-chief of Wikileaks, the online whistleblowing site. Earlier in the year Wikileaks had released more than 250 000 US government diplomatic cables through the internet, and the subsequent controver- sies around the actions of Wikileaks and Assange came to be known worldwide as ‘Cablegate’. The focus of this chapter is not on the implications of ‘Cablegate’ for international diplomacy, which continue to have great significance, but rather upon what the emergence of Wikileaks has meant for journalism, and whether it provides insights into the future of journalism. Both Facebook and Wikileaks, as well as social media platforms such as Twitter and YouTube, and independent media practices such as blogging, citizen journalism and crowdsourcing, are manifestations of the rise of social media, or what has also been termed web 2.0.The term ‘web 2.0’ was coined by Tim O’Reilly, and captures the rise of online social media platforms and services, that better realise the collaborative potential of digitally networked media. They do this by moving from the relatively static, top-down notions of interactivity that informed early internet development, towards more open and evolutionary models that better harness collective intelligence by enabling users to become the creators and collaborators in the development of online media content (Musser and O’Reilly 2007; Bruns 2008).

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The establishment by the Prime Minister of the Community Business Partnerships Board along with recent taxation reform has drawn attention to corporate philanthropy in Australia. Definitions and models are needed as each of the potential partners – government, corporations and nonprofit organisations – attempts to come to grips with opportunities. The intending partners will need to determine their responsibilities and desired outcomes so that they may work effectively towards mutually beneficial working relationships. Performance indicators need to be determined, benchmarks developed and best practice promoted. A dearth of research exists in this area (Burch, 1998; Industry Commission Report, 1995; Lyons & Hocking, 1998). More exhaustive research, collection and analysis of appropriate data will aid the process. This particular research indicates a lack of understanding between corporations and nonprofit organisations. There are risks inherent in the proposed partnerships, such as inability to reach agreement, potential for increased costs, and failure to deliver by one of the partners. This paper assesses opportunities and risks, suggests topics for high level debate, and indicates models for the development of partnerships.

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In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

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Ratites are large, flightless birds and include the ostrich, rheas, kiwi, emu, and cassowaries, along with extinct members, such as moa and elephant birds. Previous phylogenetic analyses of complete mitochondrial genome sequences have reinforced the traditional belief that ratites are monophyletic and tinamous are their sister group. However, in these studies ratite monophyly was enforced in the analyses that modeled rate heterogeneity among variable sites. Relaxing this topological constraint results in strong support for the tinamous (which fly) nesting within ratites. Furthermore, upon reducing base compositional bias and partitioning models of sequence evolution among protein codon positions and RNA structures, the tinamou–moa clade grouped with kiwi, emu, and cassowaries to the exclusion of the successively more divergent rheas and ostrich. These relationships are consistent with recent results from a large nuclear data set, whereas our strongly supported finding of a tinamou–moa grouping further resolves palaeognath phylogeny. We infer flight to have been lost among ratites multiple times in temporally close association with the Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction event. This circumvents requirements for transient microcontinents and island chains to explain discordance between ratite phylogeny and patterns of continental breakup. Ostriches may have dispersed to Africa from Eurasia, putting in question the status of ratites as an iconic Gondwanan relict taxon. [Base composition; flightless; Gondwana; mitochondrial genome; Palaeognathae; phylogeny; ratites.]

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Knowledge has been recognised as a powerful yet intangible asset, which is difficult to manage. This is especially true in a project environment where there is the potential to repeat mistakes, rather than learn from previous experiences. The literature in the project management field has recognised the importance of knowledge sharing (KS) within and between projects. However, studies in that field focus primarily on KS mechanisms including lessons learned (LL) and post project reviews as the source of knowledge for future projects, and only some preliminary research has been carried out on the aspects of project management offices (PMOs) and organisational culture (OC) in KS. This study undertook to investigate KS behaviours in an inter-project context, with a particular emphasis on the role of trust, OC and a range of knowledge sharing mechanisms (KSM) in achieving successful inter-project knowledge sharing (I-PKS). An extensive literature search resulted in the development of an I-PKS Framework, which defined the scope of the research and shaped its initial design. The literature review indicated that existing research relating to the three factors of OC, trust and KSM remains inadequate in its ability to fully explain the role of these contextual factors. In particular, the literature review identified these areas of interest: (1) the conflicting answers to some of the major questions related to KSM, (2) the limited empirical research on the role of different trust dimensions, (3) limited empirical evidence of the role of OC in KS, and (4) the insufficient research on KS in an inter-project context. The resulting Framework comprised the three main factors including: OC, trust and KSM, demonstrating a more integrated view of KS in the inter-project context. Accordingly, the aim of this research was to examine the relationships between these three factors and KS by investigating behaviours related to KS from the project managers‘ (PMs‘) perspective. In order to achieve the aim, this research sought to answer the following research questions: 1. How does organisational culture influence inter-project knowledge sharing? 2. How does the existence of three forms of trust — (i) ability, (ii) benevolence and (iii) integrity — influence inter-project knowledge sharing? 3. How can different knowledge sharing mechanisms (relational, project management tools and process, and technology) improve inter-project knowledge sharing behaviours? 4. How do the relationships between these three factors of organisational culture, trust and knowledge sharing mechanisms improve inter-project knowledge sharing? a. What are the relationships between the factors? b. What is the best fit for given cases to ensure more effective inter-project knowledge sharing? Using multiple case studies, this research was designed to build propositions emerging from cross-case data analysis. The four cases were chosen on the basis of theoretical sampling. All cases were large project-based organisations (PBOs), with a strong matrix-type structure, as per the typology proposed by the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBoK) (2008). Data were collected from project management departments of the respective organisations. A range of analytical techniques were used to deal with the data including pattern matching logic and explanation building analysis, complemented by the use of NVivo for data coding and management. Propositions generated at the end of the analyses were further compared with the extant literature, and practical implications based on the data and literature were suggested in order to improve I-PKS. Findings from this research conclude that OC, trust, and KSM contribute to inter-project knowledge sharing, and suggest the existence of relationships between these factors. In view of that, this research identified the relationships between different trust dimensions, suggesting that integrity trust reinforces the relationship between ability trust and knowledge sharing. Furthermore, this research demonstrated that characteristics of culture and trust interact to reinforce preferences for mechanisms of knowledge sharing. This means that cultures that facilitate characteristics of Clan type are more likely to result in trusting relationships, hence are more likely to use organic sources of knowledge for both tacit and explicit knowledge exchange. In contrast, cultures that are empirically driven, based on control, efficiency, and measures (characteristics of Hierarchy and Market types) display tendency to develop trust primarily in ability of non-organic sources, and therefore use these sources to share mainly explicit knowledge. This thesis contributes to the project management literature by providing a more integrative view of I-PKS, bringing the factors of OC, trust and KSM into the picture. A further contribution is related to the use of collaborative tools as a substitute for static LL databases and as a facilitator for tacit KS between geographically dispersed projects. This research adds to the literature on OC by providing rich empirical evidence of the relationships between OC and the willingness to share knowledge, and by providing empirical evidence that OC has an effect on trust; in doing so this research extends the theoretical propositions outlined by previous research. This study also extends the research on trust by identifying the relationships between different trust dimensions, suggesting that integrity trust reinforces the relationship between ability trust and KS. Finally, this research provides some directions for future studies.

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The combined impact of social class, cultural background and experience upon early literacy achievement in the first year of schooling is among the most durable questions in educational research. Links have been established between social class and achievement but literacy involves complex social and cognitive practices that are not necessarily reflected in the connections that have been made. The complexity of relationships between social class, cultural background and experience, and their impact on early literacy achievement have received little research attention. Recent refinements of the broad terms of social class or socioeconomic status have questioned the established links between social class and achievement. Nevertheless, it remains difficult to move beyond deficit and mismatch models of explaining and understanding the underperformance of children from lower socioeconomic and cultural minority groups when conventional measures are used. The data from an Australian pilot study reported here add to the increasing evidence that income is not necessarily related directly to home literacy resources or to how those resources are used. Further, the data show that the level of print resources in the home may not be a good indicator of the level of use of those resources.

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Programmed cell death (PCD) and progenitor cell generation (of glial and in some brain areas also neuronal fate) in the CNS is an active process throughout life and is generally not associated with gliosis which means that PCD can be pathologically silent. The striking discovery that progenitor cell generation (of glial and in some brain areas neuronal fate) is widespread in the adult CNS (especially the hippocampus) suggest a much more dynamic scenario than previously thought and transcends the dichotomy between neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative models of schizophrenia and related disorders. We suggest that the regulatory processes that control the regulation of PCD and the generation of progenitor cells may be disturbed in the early phase of psychotic disorders underpinning a disconnectivity syndrom at the onset of clinically overt disorders. An ongoing 1H-MRS study of the anterior hippocampus at 3 Tesla in mostly drug-naive first-episode psychosis patients suggests no change in NAA, but significant increases in myo-inositol and lactate. The data suggests that neuronal integrity in the anterior hippocampus is still intact at the early stage of illness or mainly only functionally impaired. However the increase in lactate and myo-inositol may reflect a potential disturbance of generation and PCD of progenitor cells (of glial and in selected brain areas also neuronal fate) at the onset of psychosis. If true the use of neuroprotective agents such as lithium or eicosapentaenoic acid (which inhibit PCD and support cell generation)in the early phase of psychotic disorders may be a potent treatment avenue to explore.

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An important issue facing Canadians today is crime control and prevention. Research done in the late 1980s and early 1990s by three sociologists shows that Canadian federal criminal justice policies and practices adopted by the Mulroney government from 1984 to 1990 were inconsistent with US ‘law and order’ models in place at that time. However, since the mid‐1990s, Canadian federal and provincial governments have mimicked some US authoritarian and gender‐blind means of curbing crime. The main objective of this paper is to provide some key examples of criminal justice policy transfer from the USA in Canada. At first glance, Canada may appear to be a ‘kinder, gentler nation,’ but not to the extent assumed by many, if not most, outside observers.

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The relationships between business planning and performance have divided the entrepreneurship research community for decades (Brinckmann et al, 2010). One side of this debate is the assumption that business plans may lock the firm in a specific direction early on, impede the firm to adapt to the changing market conditions (Dencker et al., 2009) and eventually, cause escalation of commitments by introducing rigidity (Vesper, 1993). Conversely, feedback received from the production and presentation of business plans may also lead the firm to take corrective actions. However, the mechanisms underlying the relationships between changes in business ideas, business plans and the performance of nascent firms are still largely unknown. While too many business idea changes may confuse stakeholders, exhaust the firm’s resources and hinder the undergoing legitimization process, some flexibility during the early stages of the venture may be beneficial to cope with the uncertainties surrounding new venture creation (Knight, 1921; March, 1982; Stinchcombe, 1965; Weick, 1979). Previous research has emphasized adaptability and flexibility as key success factors through effectual logic and interaction with the market (Sarasvathy, 2001; 2007) or improvisation and trial-and-error (Miner et al, 2001). However, those studies did not specifically investigate the role of business planning. Our objective is to reconcile those seemingly opposing views (flexibility versus rigidity) by undertaking a more fine-grained analysis at the relationships between business planning and changes in business ideas on a large longitudinal sample of nascent firms.

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Kaolinite:NaCl intercalates with basal layer dimensions of 0.95 and 1.25 nm have been prepared by direct reaction of saturated aqueous NaCl solution with well-crystallized source clay KGa-1. The intercalates and their thermal decomposition products have been studied by XRD, solid-state 23Na, 27Al, and 29Si MAS NMR, and FTIR. Intercalate yield is enhanced by dry grinding of kaolinite with NaCl prior to intercalation. The layered structure survives dehydroxylation of the kaolinite at 500°–600°C and persists to above 800°C with a resultant tetrahedral aluminosilicate framework. Excess NaCl can be readily removed by rinsing with water, producing an XRD ‘amorphous’ material. Upon heating at 900°C this material converts to a well-crystallized framework aluminosilicate closely related to low-camegieite, NaAlSiO4, some 350°C below its stability field. Reaction mechanisms are discussed and structural models proposed for each of these novel materials.

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Asset management (AM) processes play an important role in assisting enterprises to manage their assets more efficiently. To visualise and improve AM processes, the processes need to be modelled using certain process modelling methodologies. Understanding the requirements for AM process modelling is essential for selecting or developing effective AM process modelling methodologies. However, little research has been done on analysing the requirements. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating the features of AM processes. It is concluded that AM process modelling requires intuitive representation of its processes, ‘fast’ implementation of the process modelling, effective evaluation of the processes and sound system integration.

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The ability to forecast machinery health is vital to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime and safety hazards. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognostic models which attempt to forecast machinery health based on condition data such as vibration measurements. This paper demonstrates how the population characteristics and condition monitoring data (both complete and suspended) of historical items can be integrated for training an intelligent agent to predict asset health multiple steps ahead. The model consists of a feed-forward neural network whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of the Kaplan–Meier estimator and a degradation-based failure probability density function estimator. The trained network is capable of estimating the future survival probabilities when a series of asset condition readings are inputted. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. Pump data from a pulp and paper mill were used for model validation and comparison. The results indicate that the proposed model can predict more accurately as well as further ahead than similar models which neglect population characteristics and suspended data. This work presents a compelling concept for longer-range fault prognosis utilising available information more fully and accurately.

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Transition between epithelial and mesenchymal states is a feature of both normal development and tumor progression. We report that expression of chloride channel accessory protein hCLCA2 is a characteristic of epithelial differentiation in the immortalized MCF10A and HMLE models, while induction of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition by cell dilution, TGFβ or mesenchymal transcription factors sharply reduces hCLCA2 levels. Attenuation of hCLCA2 expression by lentiviral small hairpin RNA caused cell overgrowth and focus formation, enhanced migration and invasion, and increased mammosphere formation in methylcellulose. These changes were accompanied by downregulation of E-cadherin and upregulation of mesenchymal markers such as vimentin and fibronectin. Moreover, hCLCA2 expression is greatly downregulated in breast cancer cells with a mesenchymal or claudin-low profile. These observations suggest that loss of hCLCA2 may promote metastasis. We find that higher-than-median expression of hCLCA2 is associated with a one-third lower rate of metastasis over an 18-year period among breast cancer patients compared with lower-than-median (n=344, unfiltered for subtype). Thus, hCLCA2 is required for epithelial differentiation, and its loss during tumor progression contributes to metastasis. Overexpression of hCLCA2 has been reported to inhibit cell proliferation and is accompanied by increases in chloride current at the plasma membrane and reduced intracellular pH (pHi). We found that knockdown cells have sharply reduced chloride current and higher pHi, both characteristics of tumor cells. These results suggest a mechanism for the effects on differentiation. Loss of hCLCA2 may allow escape from pHi homeostatic mechanisms, permitting the higher intracellular and lower extracellular pH that are characteristic of aggressive tumor cells.

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Threats against computer networks evolve very fast and require more and more complex measures. We argue that teams respectively groups with a common purpose for intrusion detection and prevention improve the measures against rapid propagating attacks similar to the concept of teams solving complex tasks known from field of work sociology. Collaboration in this sense is not easy task especially for heterarchical environments. We propose CIMD (collaborative intrusion and malware detection) as a security overlay framework to enable cooperative intrusion detection approaches. Objectives and associated interests are used to create detection groups for exchange of security-related data. In this work, we contribute a tree-oriented data model for device representation in the scope of security. We introduce an algorithm for the formation of detection groups, show realization strategies for the system and conduct vulnerability analysis. We evaluate the benefit of CIMD by simulation and probabilistic analysis.

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While the need to increase numbers of Indigenous teachers has been highlighted for many years, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander teachers are still significantly underrepresented in Australia making up less that 1% of teachers in schools. Nationally, little has changed since the 1980s when Hughes and Wilmot (1992) called for ‘1000 Indigenous teachers by 1990’. This paper reports on an initial literature review of teacher education as related to the preparation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. Alongside the scholarly literature, the review to date includes analysis of over twenty policy documents and government reports as well as web-based descriptions of historical and current models of Indigenous teacher education including both mainstream Education programs and cohort-based and community models. While the literature provides examples of successful models of Indigenous teacher education it also illuminates the longstanding and interrelated factors that continue to impact on the success or failure of teacher education for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders