Spatial prediction on a river network

This article develops methods for spatially predicting daily change of dissolved oxygen (Dochange) at both sampled locations (134 freshwater sites in 2002 and 2003) and other locations of interest throughout a river network in South East Queensland, Australia. In order to deal with the relative sparseness of the monitoring locations in comparison to the number of locations where one might want to make predictions, we make a classification of the river and stream locations. We then implement optimal spatial prediction (ordinary and constrained kriging) from geostatistics. Because of their directed-tree structure, rivers and streams offer special challenges. A complete approach to spatial prediction on a river network is given, with special attention paid to environmental exceedances. The methodology is used to produce a map of Dochange predictions for 2003. Dochange is one of the variables measured as part of the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program conducted within the Moreton Bay Waterways and Catchments Partnership.

Identifying the spatial scale of land use that most strongly influences overall river ecosystem health score

Catchment and riparian degradation has resulted in declining ecosystem health of streams worldwide. With restoration a priority in many regions, there is an increasing interest in the scale at which land use influences stream ecosystem health. Our goal was to use a substantial data set collected as part of a monitoring program (the Southeast Queensland, Australia, Ecological Health Monitoring Program data set, collected at 116 sites over six years) to identify the spatial scale of land use, or the combination of spatial scales, that most strongly influences overall ecosystem health. In addition, we aimed to determine whether the most influential scale differed for different aspects of ecosystem health. We used linear-mixed models and a Bayesian model-averaging approach to generate models for the overall aggregated ecosystem health score and for each of the five component indicators (fish, macroinvertebrates, water quality, nutrients, and ecosystem processes) that make up the score. Dense forest close to the survey site, mid-dense forest in the hydrologically active nearstream areas of the catchment, urbanization in the riparian buffer, and tree cover at the reach scale were all significant in explaining ecosystem health, suggesting an overriding influence of forest cover, particularly close to the stream. Season and antecedent rainfall were also important explanatory variables, with some land-use variables showing significant seasonal interactions. There were also differential influences of land use for each of the component indicators. Our approach is useful given that restoring general ecosystem health is the focus of many stream restoration projects; it allowed us to predict the scale and catchment position of restoration that would result in the greatest improvement of ecosystem health in the regions streams and rivers. The models we generated suggested that good ecosystem health can be maintained in catchments where 80% of hydrologically active areas in close proximity to the stream have mid-dense forest cover and moderate health can be obtained with 60% cover.

Integration of science and monitoring of river ecosystem health to guide investments in catchment protection and rehabilitation

1. Stream ecosystem health monitoring and reporting need to be developed in the context of an adaptive process that is clearly linked to identified values and objectives, is informed by rigorous science, guides management actions and is responsive to changing perceptions and values of stakeholders. To be effective, monitoring programmes also need to be underpinned by an understanding of the probable causal factors that influence the condition or health of important environmental assets and values. This is often difficult in stream and river ecosystems where multiple stressors, acting at different spatial and temporal scales, interact to affect water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem processes. 2. In this article, we describe the development of a freshwater monitoring programme in South East Queensland, Australia, and how this has been used to report on ecosystem health at a regional scale and to guide investments in catchment protection and rehabilitation. We also discuss some of the emerging science needs to identify the appropriate scale and spatial arrangement of rehabilitation to maximise river ecosystem health outcomes and, at the same time, derive other benefits downstream. 3. An objective process was used to identify potential indicators of stream ecosystem health and then test these across a known catchment land-use disturbance gradient. From the 75 indicators initially tested, 22 from five indicator groups (water quality, ecosystem metabolism, nutrient cycling, invertebrates and fish) responded strongly to the disturbance gradient, and 16 were subsequently recommended for inclusion in the monitoring programme. The freshwater monitoring programme was implemented in 2002, funded by local and State government authorities, and currently involves the assessment of over 120 sites, twice per year. This information, together with data from a similar programme on the region's estuarine and coastal marine waters, forms the basis of an annual report card that is presented in a public ceremony to local politicians and the broader community. 4. Several key lessons from the SEQ Healthy Waterways Programme are likely to be transferable to other regional programmes aimed at improving aquatic ecosystem health, including the importance of a shared common vision, the involvement of committed individuals, a cooperative approach, the need for defensible science and effective communication. 5. Thematic implications: this study highlights the use of conceptual models and objective testing of potential indicators against a known disturbance gradient to develop a freshwater ecosystem health monitoring programme that can diagnose the probable causes of degradation from multiple stressors and identify the appropriate spatial scale for rehabilitation or protection. This approach can lead to more targeted management investments in catchment protection and rehabilitation, greater public confidence that limited funds are being well spent and better outcomes for stream and river ecosystem health.

Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).

Are alien fish a reliable indicator of river health?

1. The ability of many introduced fish species to thrive in degraded aquatic habitats and their potential to impact on aquatic ecosystem structure and function suggest that introduced fish may represent both a symptom and a cause of decline in river health and the integrity of native aquatic communities. 2. The varying sensitivities of many commonly introduced fish species to degraded stream conditions, the mechanism and reason for their introduction and the differential susceptibility of local stream habitats to invasion because of the environmental and biological characteristics of the receiving water body, are all confounding factors that may obscure the interpretation of patterns of introduced fish species distribution and abundance and therefore their reliability as indicators of river health. 3. In the present study, we address the question of whether alien fish (i.e. those species introduced from other countries) are a reliable indicator of the health of streams and rivers in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. We examine the relationships of alien fish species distributions and indices of abundance and biomass with the natural environmental features, the biotic characteristics of the local native fish assemblages and indicators of anthropogenic disturbance at a large number of sites subject to varying sources and intensities of human impact. 4. Alien fish species were found to be widespread and often abundant in south-eastern Queensland rivers and streams, and the five species collected were considered to be relatively tolerant to river degradation, making them good candidate indicators of river health. Variation in alien species indices was unrelated to the size of the study sites, the sampling effort expended or natural environmental gradients. The biological resistance of the native fish fauna was not concluded to be an important factor mediating invasion success by alien species. Variation in alien fish indices was, however, strongly related to indicators of disturbance intensity describing local in-stream habitat and riparian degradation, water quality and surrounding land use, particularly the amount of urban development in the catchment. 5. Potential confounding factors that may influence the likelihood of introduction and successful establishment of an alien species and the implications of these factors for river bioassessment are discussed. We conclude that the potentially strong impact that many alien fish species can have on the biological integrity of natural aquatic ecosystems, together with their potential to be used as an initial basis to find out other forms of human disturbance impacts, suggest that some alien species (particularly species from the family Poeciliidae) can represent a reliable 'first cut' indicator of river health.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Recent progress in fluorescent blue light-emitting materials

Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs), as an emerging technology for display and solid state lighting application, have many advantages including self-emission, lightweight, flexibility, low driving voltage, low power consumption, and low production cost. With the advancement of light emitting materials development and device architecture optimization, mobile phones and televisions based on OLED technology are already in the market. However, to obtain efficient, stable and pure blue emission than producing lower-energy colors is still one of the important subjects of these challenges. Full color and pure white light can be achieved only having stable blue emitting materials. To address this issue, significant effort has been devoted to develop novel blue light emitting materials in the past decade aiming at further improving device efficiency, color quality of emission light, and device lifetime. This review focuses on recent efforts of synthesis and device performance of small molecules, oligomers and polymers for blue emission of organic electroluminescent devices.

Pyridine-incorporated dihexylquaterthiophene : a novel blue emitter for organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs)

The synthesis and characterisation of 2,5-bis(5′-hexyl-[2,2′- bithiophen]-5-yl)pyridine (Th4PY) and its use as a blue emitter in organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) is reported. Th4PY was synthesised in high yield using a straightforward Suzuki coupling route with commercially available starting materials. As Th4PY is both soluble and has low molecular weight, blue OLEDs were fabricated using both spin-coating and vacuum deposition thin film processing techniques to study the effect of processing on device performance. OLED devices using a spin-coated layer consisting of 4′,4′′- tris(N-carbazolyl)triphenylamine (TCTA) and 2-(4-biphenylyl)-5-(4-tert- butylphenyl)-1,3,4-oxadiazole (PBD) as a host matrix together with Th4PY as emitter exhibited highly efficient sky-blue emission with a low turn-on voltage of 3V, a maximum brightness close to 15000cdm-2 at 8V, and a maximum luminous efficiency of 7.4cdA -1 (6.3lmW -1) with CIE coordinates of x≤0.212, y≤0.320. The device performance characteristics are compared using various matrices and processing techniques. The promising sky-blue OLED performance, solution processability, and ambient stability make Th4PY a promising blue emitter for application in OLEDs.

Little boxes : changing perceptions and including young people in socially sustainable participatory planning

In recent years, a great deal has been written about the benefits and ethics of including young people in participative decision-making. This has been accompanied by a burgeoning interest in including their views in participatory planning exercises that has not always been realised in practice. Drawing on a detailed analysis of the perceptions of adults and young people involved in a participatory planning exercise on Australia‟s Gold Coast, we believe that there are two major hurdles to the „full‟ engagement of young people that are in some respects two sides of the same coin: the sometimes paternalistic perceptions and often dismissive attitude that many adults have towards the participation of young people; and the perceptions that young people may have of themselves and their subordinate place in an adult-dominated planning environment. Together, such views act to place limitations on the participation of young people because they set up unrealistic expectations for both adult and younger participants in terms of how and why young people participate, and what this participation should „look and feel‟ like. In this paper, through the metaphor of boxes, we propose a number of issues that should be addressed when involving young people in participatory planning processes to ensure the most from their participation for all involved.

Perfect start to a river cruise

A travel article about Amsterdam. BY COINCIDENCE, I flew to Amsterdam a week after I'd read Ian McEwan's novel of the same name. Amsterdam is a modern take on the theme of duelling and, in many ways, he couldn't have chosen a more appropriate place for his title. This is a city that duels with itself. I flew in at dawn, traditionally the moment to test your abilities at 10 paces. The countryside below was dark but blocks of orange light pulsed in the fields...

Including or excluding conflicts of interest among expert peer reviewers had little impact on funding success, a case study from Australia

Competition for research funding is intense and the opinions of an expert peer reviewer can mean the difference between success and failure in securing funding. The allocation of expert peer reviewers is therefore vitally important and funding agencies strive to avoid using reviewers who have real or perceived conflicts of interest. This article examines the impact of including or excluding peer reviewers based on their conflicts of interest, and the final ranking of funding proposals. Two 7-person review panels assessed a sample of National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia proposals in Basic Science or Public Health. Using a pre-post comparison, the proposals were first scored after the exclusion of reviewers with a high or medium conflict, and re-scored after the return of reviewers with medium conflicts. The main outcome measures are the agreements in ranks and funding success before and after excluding the medium conflicts. Including medium conflicts of interest had little impact on the ranks or funding success. The Bland–Altman 95% limits of agreement were ± 3.3 ranks and ± 3.4 ranks in the two panels which both assessed 36 proposals. Overall there were three proposals (4%) that had a reversed funding outcome after including medium conflicts. Relaxing the conflict of interest rules would increase the number of expert reviewers included in the panel discussions which could increase the quality of peer review and make it easier to find reviewers.

Application of XRF and correspondence analysis to provenance studies of coastal and inland archaeological pottery from the Mngeni river area, South Africa

XRF spectrometry was applied to provenance studies of Iron Age pottery specimens that originated from the Mngeni river area in South Africa. Ten transition metals (Sc to Zn) mere determined in 107 potsherds, excavated from four different sites. The data were subjected to a computerized mathematical technique (correspondence analysis), which was used to group the samples according to the similarity of their elemental distributions. The groupings were interpreted in terms of social or cultural interaction between the sites. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.