Tracking adversarial targets

We study linear control problems with quadratic losses and adversarially chosen tracking targets. We present an efficient algorithm for this problem and show that, under standard conditions on the linear system, its regret with respect to an optimal linear policy grows as O(log^2 T), where T is the number of rounds of the game. We also study a problem with adversarially chosen transition dynamics; we present an exponentiallyweighted average algorithm for this problem, and we give regret bounds that grow as O(sqtr p T).

Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit

South Africa is an emerging and industrializing economy which is experiencing remarkable progress. We contend that amidst the developments in the economy, the role of energy, trade openness and financial development are critical. In this article, we revisit the pivotal role of these factors. We use the ARDL bounds [72], the Bayer and Hanck [11] cointegration techniques, and an extended Cobb–Douglas framework, to examine the long-run association with output per worker over the sample period 1971–2011. The results support long-run association between output per worker, capital per worker and the shift parameters. The short-run elasticity coefficients are as follows: energy (0.24), trade (0.07), financial development (−0.03). In the long-run, the elasticity coefficients are: trade openness (0.05), energy (0.29), and financial development (−0.04). In both the short-run and the long-run, we note the post-2000 period has a marginal positive effect on the economy. The Toda and Yamamoto [91] Granger causality results show that a unidirectional causality from capital stock and energy consumption to output; and from capital stock to trade openness; a bidirectional causality between trade openness and output; and absence (neutrality) of any causality between financial development and output thus indicating that these two variables evolve independent of each other.

Comparison between computational models of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Objective: To compare the differences in the hemodynamic parameters of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) between fluid-structure interaction model (FSIM) and fluid-only model (FM), so as to discuss their application in the research of AAA. Methods: An idealized AAA model was created based on patient-specific AAA data. In FM, the flow, pressure and wall shear stress (WSS) were computed using finite volume method. In FSIM, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian algorithm was used to solve the flow in a continuously deforming geometry. The hemodynamic parameters of both models were obtained for discussion. Results: Under the same inlet velocity, there were only two symmetrical vortexes in the AAA dilation area for FSIM. In contrast, four recirculation areas existed in FM; two were main vortexes and the other two were secondary flow, which were located between the main recirculation area and the arterial wall. Six local pressure concentrations occurred in the distal end of AAA and the recirculation area for FM. However, there were only two local pressure concentrations in FSIM. The vortex center of the recirculation area in FSIM was much more close to the distal end of AAA and the area was much larger because of AAA expansion. Four extreme values of WSS existed at the proximal of AAA, the point of boundary layer separation, the point of flow reattachment and the distal end of AAA, respectively, in both FM and FSIM. The maximum wall stress and the largest wall deformation were both located at the proximal and distal end of AAA. Conclusions: The number and center of the recirculation area for both models are different, while the change of vortex is closely associated with the AAA growth. The largest WSS of FSIM is 36% smaller than that of FM. Both the maximum wall stress and largest wall displacement shall increase with the outlet pressure increasing. FSIM needs to be considered for studying the relationship between AAA growth and shear stress.

Simulation of the interaction between blood flow and atherosclerotic plaque

It has been well accepted that over 50% of cerebral ischemic events are the result of rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis. Such strokes are potentially preventable by carotid interventions. Selection of patients for intervention is currently based on the severity of carotid luminal stenosis. It has been, however, widely accepted that luminal stenosis alone may not be an adequate predictor of risk. To evaluate the effects of degree of luminal stenosis and plaque morphology on plaque stability, we used a coupled nonlinear time-dependent model with flow-plaque interaction simulation to perform flow and stress/strain analysis for stenotic artery with a plaque. The Navier-Stokes equations in the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation were used as the governing equations for the fluid. The Ogden strain energy function was used for both the fibrous cap and the lipid pool. The plaque Principal stresses and flow conditions were calculated for every case when varying the fibrous cap thickness from 0.1 to 2mm and the degree of luminal stenosis from 10% to 90%. Severe stenosis led to high flow velocities and high shear stresses, but a low or even negative pressure at the throat of the stenosis. Higher degree of stenosis and thinner fibrous cap led to larger plaque stresses, and a 50% decrease of fibrous cap thickness resulted in a 200% increase of maximum stress. This model suggests that fibrous cap thickness is critically related to plaque vulnerability and that, even within presence of moderate stenosis, may play an important role in the future risk stratification of those patients when identified in vivo using high resolution MR imaging.

An optimal design for screening trials

Yao, Begg, and Livingston (1996, Biometrics 52, 992-1001) considered the optimal group size for testing a series of potentially therapeutic agents to identify a promising one as soon as possible for given error rates. The number of patients to be tested with each agent was fixed as the group size. We consider a sequential design that allows early acceptance and rejection, and we provide an optimal strategy to minimize the sample sizes (patients) required using Markov decision processes. The minimization is under the constraints of the two types (false positive and false negative) of error probabilities, with the Lagrangian multipliers corresponding to the cost parameters for the two types of errors. Numerical studies indicate that there can be a substantial reduction in the number of patients required.

Blast response and failure analysis of a segmented buried tunnel

Underground tunnels are vulnerable to terrorist attacks which can cause collapse of the tunnel structures or at least extensive damage, requiring lengthy repairs. This paper treats the blast impact on a reinforced concrete segmental tunnel buried in soil under a number of parametric conditions; soil properties, soil cover, distance of explosive from the tunnel centreline and explosive weight and analyses the possible failure patterns. A fully coupled Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) technique incorporating the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) method is used in this study. Results indicate that the tunnel in saturated soil is more vulnerable to severe damage than that buried in either partially saturated soil or dry soil. The tunnel is also more vulnerable to surface explosions which occur directly above the centre of the tunnel than those that occur at any equivalent distances in the ground away from the tunnel centre. The research findings provide useful information on modeling, analysis, overall tunnel response and failure patterns of segmented tunnels subjected to blast loads. This information will guide future development and application of research in this field.

A new type of high-order elements based on the mesh-free interpolations

We propose a new type of high-order elements that incorporates the mesh-free Galerkin formulations into the framework of finite element method. Traditional polynomial interpolation is replaced by mesh-free interpolations in the present high-order elements, and the strain smoothing technique is used for integration of the governing equations based on smoothing cells. The properties of high-order elements, which are influenced by the basis function of mesh-free interpolations and boundary nodes, are discussed through numerical examples. It can be found that the basis function has significant influence on the computational accuracy and upper-lower bounds of energy norm, when the strain smoothing technique retains the softening phenomenon. This new type of high-order elements shows good performance when quadratic basis functions are used in the mesh-free interpolations and present elements prove advantageous in adaptive mesh and nodes refinement schemes. Furthermore, it shows less sensitive to the quality of element because it uses the mesh-free interpolations and obeys the Weakened Weak (W2) formulation as introduced in [3, 5].

Can technology provide a glimmer of hope for economic growth in the midst of chaos? A case of Zimbabwe

In this paper we examine the effect of technology on economic growth in Zimbabwe over the period 1975–2014 whilst accounting for structural breaks. We use the extended Cobb–Douglas type Solow (Q J Econ 70(1):65–94, 1956) framework and the ARDL bounds procedure to examine cointegration and short run and long run effects. Using unit root tests, we note that structural changes in Zimbabwe are generally marked by the period 1982 onwards. We find that mobile technology has a positive short-run (0.09 %) and long-run (0.08 %) impact on the output per capita. The structural changes post-1982 periods show positive impact in the short-run (0.06) and the long-run (0.09), whereas the coefficient of trend in the short-run (−0.03) and the long-run (−0.04) is negative. The Granger non-causality test shows a unidirectional causality from capital stock (investment) per capita to output per capita and a bi-directional causality between mobile cellular technology and output per capita. The plausible reasons for estimated magnitude effects and the direction of causality are explained for policy deliberation.

RTK-based GNSS drifters for monitoring in estuaries and rivers: Field experimental results

This paper presents a novel RTK-based GNSS Lagrangian drifter system that is capable of monitoring water velocity, turbulence and dispersion coefficients of river and estuarine. The Lagrangian drifters use the dual-frequency real time kinematic (RTK) technique for both position and velocity estimations. The capsule is designed to meet the requirements such as minimizing height, diameter, minimizing the direct wind drag, positive buoyancy for satellite signal reception and stability, and waterproof housing for electronic components, such as GNSS receiver and computing board. The collected GNSS data are processed with post-processing RTK software. Several experiments have been carried out in two rivers in Brisbane and Sunshine Coast in Queensland. Results show that the high accuracy GNSS-drifters can be used to measure dispersion coefficient resulting from sub-tidal velocity fluctuations in shallow tidal water. In addition, the RTK-GNSS drifters respond well to vertical motion and thus could be applicable to flood monitoring.

Geomolecular dating and the origin of placental mammals

In modern evolutionary divergence analysis the role of geological information extends beyond providing a timescale, to informing molecular rate variation across the tree. Here I consider the implications of this development. I use fossil calibrations to test the accuracy of models of molecular rate evolution for placental mammals, and reveal substantial misspecification associated with life history rate correlates. Adding further calibrations to reduce dating errors at specific nodes unfortunately tends to transfer underlying rate errors to adjacent branches. Thus, tight calibration across the tree is vital to buffer against rate model errors. I argue that this must include allowing maximum bounds to be tight when good fossil records permit, otherwise divergences deep in the tree will tend to be inflated by the interaction of rate errors and asymmetric confidence in minimum and maximum bounds. In the case of placental mammals I sought to reduce the potential for transferring calibration and rate model errors across the tree by focusing on well-supported calibrations with appropriately conservative maximum bounds. The resulting divergence estimates are younger than others published recently, and provide the long-anticipated molecular signature for the placental mammal radiation observed in the fossil record near the 66 Ma Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event.

Eddy diffusivity: A single dispersion analysis of high resolution drifters in a tidal shallow estuary

In an estuary, mixing and dispersion resulting from turbulence and small scale fluctuation has strong spatio-temporal variability which cannot be resolved in conventional hydrodynamic models while some models employs parameterizations large water bodies. This paper presents small scale diffusivity estimates from high resolution drifters sampled at 10 Hz for periods of about 4 hours to resolve turbulence and shear diffusivity within a tidal shallow estuary (depth < 3 m). Taylor's diffusion theorem forms the basis of a first order estimate for the diffusivity scale. Diffusivity varied between 0.001 – 0.02 m2/s during the flood tide experiment. The diffusivity showed strong dependence (R2 > 0.9) on the horizontal mean velocity within the channel. Enhanced diffusivity caused by shear dispersion resulting from the interaction of large scale flow with the boundary geometries was observed. Turbulence within the shallow channel showed some similarities with the boundary layer flow which include consistency with slope of 5/3 predicted by Kolmogorov's similarity hypothesis within the inertial subrange. The diffusivities scale locally by 4/3 power law following Okubo's scaling and the length scale scales as 3/2 power law of the time scale. The diffusivity scaling herein suggests that the modelling of small scale mixing within tidal shallow estuaries can be approached from classical turbulence scaling upon identifying pertinent parameters.