Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Impacts and opportunities : resident's view on sustainable development of tourism in regional Queensland, Australia

Tourism development is a priority for rural and regional areas of Australia. The challenge is how to develop the tourism industry in a sustainable manner. As part of a larger project investigating community perceptions of opportunities, strategies and challenges in regional sustainable development, this article explores participant's views and opinions of tourism development. Through purposive sampling, 28 local community leaders and residents in the Darling Downs region in Queensland, Australia, participated in four semi-structured focus groups. This paper focuses on two of these focus groups, where tourism was a critical issue. Participants were generally positive about the tourism industry and its impacts on their community, although they expressed several triple bottom line concerns about economic, environmental and scoial issues. Four key themes emerged: appropriate land use management, limited resources and ageing/insufficient infrastructure, preservaation of community heritage and lifestyle, and regional conflict. Residents supported sustainable tourism development and wanted to be more actively involved in decision-making, demanding greater transparency - and true engagement - from local government.

Regional changes in corneal thickness and shape with soft contact lenses

Purpose: To investigate the influence of soft contact lenses on regional variations in corneal thickness and shape while taking account of natural diurnal variations in these corneal parameters. Methods: Twelve young, healthy subjects wore 4 different types of soft contact lenses on 4 different days. The lenses were of two different materials (silicone hydrogel, hydrogel), designs (spherical, toric) and powers (–3.00, –7.00 D). Corneal thickness and topography measurements were taken before and after 8 hours of lens wear and on two days without lens wear, using the Pentacam HR system. Results: The hydrogel toric contact lens caused the greatest level of corneal thickening in the central (20.3 ± 10.0 microns) as well as peripheral cornea (24.1 ± 9.1 microns) (p < 0.001) with an obvious regional swelling of the cornea beneath the stabilizing zones. The anterior corneal surface generally showed slight flattening. All contact lenses resulted in central posterior corneal steepening and this was weakly correlated with central corneal swelling (p = 0.03) and peripheral corneal swelling (p = 0.01). Conclusions: There was an obvious regional corneal swelling apparent after wear of the hydrogel soft toric lenses, due to the location of the thicker stabilization zones of the toric lenses. However with the exception of the hydrogel toric lens, the magnitude of corneal swelling induced by the contact lenses over the 8 hours of wear was less than the natural diurnal thinning of the cornea over this same period.

Optimisation of a class of transportation problems using genetic algorithms

This paper presents a Genetic Algorithms (GA) approach to search the optimized path for a class of transportation problems. The formulation of the problems for suitable application of GA will be discussed. Exchanging genetic information in the sense of neighborhoods will be introduced for generation reproduction. The performance of the GA will be evaluated by computer simulation. The proposed algorithm use simple coding with population size 1 converged in reasonable optimality within several minutes.

Sustainable transport infrastructure : perspectives for sustainable urban and transport development

Many economic, social and environmental sustainability problems associated with typical urban transportation systems have revealed the importance of three domains of action: vehicle, infrastructure and user. These domains need to be carefully reconsidered in search of a sustainable urban development path. Although intelligent transportation systems have contributed substantially to enhancing efficiency, safety and comfort of travel, questions related to users’ behaviours and preferences, which stimulate considerable environmental effects, still needed to be further examined. In this chapter, options for smart urban transportation infrastructure development and the technological means for achieving broader goals of sustainable communities and urban development are explored.

Regional field measurement of soil moisture content with neutron probe

The neutron logging method has been widely used for field measurement of soil moisture content. This non-destructive method permitted the measurement of in-situ soil moisture content at various depths without the need for burying any sensor. Twenty-three sites located around regional Melbourne have been selected for long term monitoring of soil moisture content using neutron probe. Soil samples collected during the installation are used for site characterisation and neutron probe calibration purposes. A linear relationship is obtained between the corrected neutron probe reading and moisture content for both the individual and combined data from seven sites. It is observed that the liner relationship, developed using combined data, can be used for all sites with an average accuracy of about 80%. Monitoring of the variation of soil moisture content with depth in six months for two sites is presented in this paper.

Colonising Shakespeare? : agency and authority in Gregory Rogers's Shakespearean picture books

“You need to be able to tell stories. Illustration is a literature, not a pure fine art. It’s the fine art of writing with pictures.” – Gregory Rogers. This paper reads two recent wordless picture books by Australian illustrator Gregory Rogers in order to consider how “Shakespeare” is produced as a complex object of consumption for the implied child reader: The Boy, The Bear, The Baron, The Bard (2004) and Midsummer Knight (2006). In these books other worlds are constructed via time-travel and travel to a fantasy world, and clearly presume reader competence in narrative temporality and structure, and cultural literacy (particularly in reference to Elizabethan London and William Shakespeare), even as they challenge normative concepts via use of the fantastic. Exploring both narrative sequences and individual images reveals a tension in the books between past and present, and real and imagined. Where children’s texts tend to privilege Shakespeare, the man and his works, as inherently valuable, Rogers’s work complicates any sense of cultural value. Even as these picture books depend on a lexicon of Shakespearean images for meaning and coherence, they represent William Shakespeare as both an enemy to children (The Boy), and a national traitor (Midsummer). The protagonists, a boy in the first book and the bear he rescues in the second, effect political change by defeating Shakespeare. However, where these texts might seem to be activating a postcolonial cultural critique, this is complicated both by presumed readerly competence in authorized cultural discourses and by repeated affirmation of monarchies as ideal political systems. Power, then, in these picture books is at once rewarded and withheld, in a dialectic of (possibly postcolonial) agency, and (arguably colonial) subjection, even as they challenge dominant valuations of “Shakespeare” they do not challenge understandings of the “Child”.

The play's the thing? : Hamlet, Slings & Arrows, and the authority of theatrical consumption

This paper reads season 1 of the critically-acclaimed Canadian television series “Slings & Arrows” (2003). This six-episode series is set in a fictionalised version of the Stratford Festival, and tells the story of a plagued production of Shakespeare’s Hamlet. It follows the play’s rehearsal after the death of the festival’s artistic director; Geoffrey Tennant (himself a plagued Hamlet) takes over the role of director, and must face his past in order to produce a Hamlet that will save the festival, redeem his reputation, and repair his interpersonal relationships. Drawing on popular and theatrical understandings of Shakespeare’s play, the series negotiates tropes of metatheatre, filiality, cultural production and consumption, in order to demonstrate the ongoing relevance and legitimacy of “Shakespeare” in the twenty-first century. The “Slings & Arrows” narrative revolves around the doubled-plot of Hamlet and the experiences of the company mounting Hamlet. In quite obvious ways, the show thus thematises ways in which Shakespeare can be used to read one’s own life and world. In the broader sense, however, the show also offers theatre/performance as a catalyst for affect. In doing so, the show functions as a relatively straight adaptation of Hamlet, and a metatheatrical/metafictional commentary on the functions of Hamlet within contemporary culture. In Shakespeare’s play, the production of “The Mouse-Trap” proves, both to Hamlet and the audience, the legitimacy of the ghost’s claims. Similarly, in “Slings & Arrows”, the successful performance of Hamlet legitimises Geoffrey’s position as artistic director of the festival, and affirms for the viewer the value of Shakespearean production in contemporary culture. In each text, theatre/performance enables and legitimises a son carrying out a dead father’s wishes in order to restore or reproduce socio-cultural order. The metatheatrics of these gestures engage the reader/viewer in a self-reflexive process whereby the ‘value’ of theatre is thematised and performed, and the consumer is positioned as the arbiter and agent of that value: complicit in its production even as they are the site of its consumption.

The influence of safety ownership on occupational road safety outcomes

Questionnaires and interviews were conducted with employees and senior managers from three Australian organisations to explore the relationship between perceived managerial ownership of safety responsibilities and occupational road safety. It was found that the perceived authority of the person primarily responsible for managing road risks and perceived shared ownership of safety tasks were both significant independent predictors of safer driving behaviours. It was identified that the position of the person accepting primary risk management responsibilities was typically a member of the OHS team and typically in a management position. The extent that ownership was shared across members within the researched organisations varied, with personnel from OHS and fleet management typically accepting partial ownership of managing occupational road risks. Based on the findings, several recommendations are made to assist practitioners in managing occupational road risks.

A regional construction R&D evaluation system for China

Expenditure on R&D in the China construction industry has been relatively low in comparison with many developed countries for a number of years – a situation considered to be a major barrier to the industry’s competitiveness in general and unsatisfactory industry development of the 31 regions involved. A major problem with this is the lack of a sufficiently sophisticated method of objectively evaluating R&D activity in what are quite complex circumstances considering the size and regional differences that exist in this part of the world. A regional construction R&D evaluation system (RCRES) is presented aimed at rectifying the situation. This is based on 12 indicators drawn from the Chinese Government’s R&D Inventory of Resources in consultation with a small group of experts in the field, and further factor analysed into three groups. From this, the required evaluation is obtained by a simple formula. Examination of the results provides a ranking list of the R&D performance of each of the 31 regions, indicating a general disproportion between coastal and inland regions and highlighting regions receiving special emphasis or currently lacking in development. The understanding on this is vital for the future of China’s construction industry.

Survey of Spring Oats for Barley Yellow Dwarf Viruses in Illinois

During the spring of 1987, 1,215 samples of spring oats (Avena sativa L.) were collected in Madison, Champaign, Woodford, Warren, and DeKalb counties, Illinois. At each site on each of three sampling dates, 45 samples were collected (regardless of symptoms) in a W pattern in I ha and tested for the PAY, MAV, RPV, and RMV serotypes of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) by direct doubleantibody sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). RMV was not detected at any location. PAY and RPV were detected at all locations, as early as 17 April in Champaign County. The incidences of P A V and RPV from all plants sampled ranged from 2 to 64% and from 2 to 88%, respectively. Highest incidences of both strains were in May samples [rom Woodford County. MAV was detected in lower incidences (2-16%) only in samples from the central region of the state (Champaign, Woodford, and Warren counties). The presence of MA V serotypes was confirmed in triple-antibody sandwich ELISA with the MA V -specific MAFF2 monoclonal antibody from L. Torrance. In the last previous survey for BYDV in Illinois during 1967-1968 (1), about 75% of the isolates were PAY and about 20% were RPV; single isolates of RMV and MAV were found. Twenty years later, 55% were PAY, 39% were RPV, and 6% were MAV.

Sustainable urban and regional infrastructure development : technologies, applications and management

Sustainable Urban and Regional Infrastructure Development: Technologies, Applications and Management, bridges the gap in the current literature by addressing the overall problems present in society's major infrastructures, and the technologies that may be applied to overcome these problems. It focuses on ways in which energy intensive but 'invisible' (to the general public) facilities can become green or greener. The studies presented re lessons to be learnt from our neighbors and from our own backyard, and provide an excellent general overview of the issues facing us all.

Conceptualising convenience : transportation practices and perceptions of inner-urban high density residents in Brisbane, Australia

High-density living in inner-urban areas has been promoted to encourage the use of more sustainable modes of travel to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, previous research presents mixed results on the relationship between living in proximity to transport systems and reduced car-dependency. This research examines inner-city residents’ transportation practices and perceptions, via 24 qualitative interviews with residents from high-density dwellings in inner-city Brisbane, Australia. Whilst participants consider public transport accessible and convenient, car use continues to be relied on for many journeys. Transportation choices are justified through complex definitions of convenience containing both utilitarian and psycho-social elements,with three key themes identified: time-efficiency, single versus multi-modal trips, and distance to and purpose of journey, as well as attitudinal, affective and symbolic elements related to transport mode use. Understanding conceptions of transport convenience held by different segments of the transport users market,alongside other factors strongly implicated in travel mode choice, can ensure targeted improvements in sustainable transport service levels and infrastructure as well as information service provision and behavioural change campaigns.

Urban, regional, national and global knowledge capital [Guest editorial]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the JKM 2010 annual special issue on knowledge based development (KBD) with reference to the multi-level analysis characteristic of the field. ----- ----- Design/methodology/approach – A description of the knowledge management approach at ESOC (European Space Operations Centre of the European Space Agency) is provided first. At the core of this approach is the breakdown of knowledge in individual technical domains followed by coverage analysis and criticality assessment. Such a framework becomes the reference for best knowledge acquisition, transfer and storage locus identification and subsequent knowledge management practices and guidelines. ----- ----- Findings – KBD provides an integrated framework to account for multidisciplinary analyses and multilevel practices in knowledge capital generation, distribution and utilization. ----- ----- Originality/value – The collection of papers included in the annual special issue on KBD provides a representative, composite view of the research topics and applications concerns in the field. Involving a number of disciplines and levels of analysis, issues ranging from the technological gatekeeper to global knowledge flows show the interdependence of KBD concepts and tools.