On the significance of omitted variables in intersection crash modeling

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causes and contributing factors—rest upon the pursuit of numerous lines of research inquiry. The research community has focused considerable attention on analytical methods development (negative binomial models, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might logically seek to know which lines of inquiry might provide the most significant improvements in understanding crash causation and/or prediction. It is the contention of this paper that the exclusion of important variables (causal or surrogate measures of causal variables) cause omitted variable bias in model estimation and is an important and neglected line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant opportunities to better understand contributing factors and/or causes of crashes. This study examines the role of important variables (other than Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT)) that are generally omitted from intersection crash prediction models. In addition to the geometric and traffic regulatory information of intersection, the proposed model includes many spatial factors such as local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools—representing a mix of potential environmental and human factors that are theoretically important, but rarely used. Results suggest that these variables in addition to AADT have significant explanatory power, and their exclusion leads to omitted variable bias. Provided is evidence that variable exclusion overstates the effect of minor road AADT by as much as 40% and major road AADT by 14%.

Semantic service discovery in the service ecosystem

Electronic services are a leitmotif in ‘hot’ topics like Software as a Service, Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), Service oriented Computing, Cloud Computing, application markets and smart devices. We propose to consider these in what has been termed the Service Ecosystem (SES). The SES encompasses all levels of electronic services and their interaction, with human consumption and initiation on its periphery in much the same way the ‘Web’ describes a plethora of technologies that eventuate to connect information and expose it to humans. Presently, the SES is heterogeneous, fragmented and confined to semi-closed systems. A key issue hampering the emergence of an integrated SES is Service Discovery (SD). A SES will be dynamic with areas of structured and unstructured information within which service providers and ‘lay’ human consumers interact; until now the two are disjointed, e.g., SOA-enabled organisations, industries and domains are choreographed by domain experts or ‘hard-wired’ to smart device application markets and web applications. In a SES, services are accessible, comparable and exchangeable to human consumers closing the gap to the providers. This requires a new SD with which humans can discover services transparently and effectively without special knowledge or training. We propose two modes of discovery, directed search following an agenda and explorative search, which speculatively expands knowledge of an area of interest by means of categories. Inspired by conceptual space theory from cognitive science, we propose to implement the modes of discovery using concepts to map a lay consumer’s service need to terminologically sophisticated descriptions of services. To this end, we reframe SD as an information retrieval task on the information attached to services, such as, descriptions, reviews, documentation and web sites - the Service Information Shadow. The Semantic Space model transforms the shadow's unstructured semantic information into a geometric, concept-like representation. We introduce an improved and extended Semantic Space including categorization calling it the Semantic Service Discovery model. We evaluate our model with a highly relevant, service related corpus simulating a Service Information Shadow including manually constructed complex service agendas, as well as manual groupings of services. We compare our model against state-of-the-art information retrieval systems and clustering algorithms. By means of an extensive series of empirical evaluations, we establish optimal parameter settings for the semantic space model. The evaluations demonstrate the model’s effectiveness for SD in terms of retrieval precision over state-of-the-art information retrieval models (directed search) and the meaningful, automatic categorization of service related information, which shows potential to form the basis of a useful, cognitively motivated map of the SES for exploratory search.

Additive manufacturing of tissues and organs

Additive manufacturing techniques offer the potential to fabricate organized tissue constructs to repair or replace damaged or diseased human tissues and organs. Using these techniques, spatial variations of cells along multiple axes with high geometric complexity in combination with different biomaterials can be generated. The level of control offered by these computer-controlled technologies to design and fabricate tissues will accelerate our understanding of the governing factors of tissue formation and function. Moreover, it will provide a valuable tool to study the effect of anatomy on graft performance. In this review, we discuss the rationale for engineering tissues and organs by combining computer-aided design with additive manufacturing technologies that encompass the simultaneous deposition of cells and materials. Current strategies are presented, particularly with respect to limitations due to the lack of suitable polymers, and requirements to move the current concepts to practical application.

The quantum inspired modelling of changing attitudes and self-organising societies

We utilise the well-developed quantum decision models known to the QI community to create a higher order social decision making model. A simple Agent Based Model (ABM) of a society of agents with changing attitudes towards a social issue is presented, where the private attitudes of individuals in the system are represented using a geometric structure inspired by quantum theory. We track the changing attitudes of the members of that society, and their resulting propensities to act, or not, in a given social context. A number of new issues surrounding this "scaling up" of quantum decision theories are discussed, as well as new directions and opportunities.

Wing shape as a potential discriminator of morphologically similar pest taxa within the Bactrocera dorsalis species complex (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Four morphologically cryptic species of the Bactrocera dorsalis fruit fly complex (B. dorsalis s.s., B. papayae, B. carambolae and B. philippinensis) are serious agricultural pests. As they are difficult to diagnose using traditional taxonomic techniques, we examined the potential for geometric morphometric analysis of wing size and shape to discriminate between them. Fifteen wing landmarks generated size and shape data for 245 specimens for subsequent comparisons among three geographically distinct samples of each species. Intraspecific wing size was significantly different within samples of B. carambolae and B. dorsalis s.s. but not within samples of B. papayae or B. philippinensis. Although B. papayae had the smallest wings (average centroid size=6.002 mm±0.061 SE) and B. dorsalis s.s. the largest (6.349 mm±0.066 SE), interspecific wing size comparisons were generally non-informative and incapable of discriminating species. Contrary to the wing size data, canonical variate analysis based on wing shape data discriminated all species with a relatively high degree of accuracy; individuals were correctly reassigned to their respective species on average 93.27% of the time. A single sample group of B. carambolae from locality 'TN Malaysia' was the only sample to be considerably different from its conspecific groups with regards to both wing size and wing shape. This sample was subsequently deemed to have been originally misidentified and likely represents an undescribed species. We demonstrate that geometric morphometric techniques analysing wing shape represent a promising approach for discriminating between morphologically cryptic taxa of the B. dorsalis species complex.

Analysis of marine conflicts

The traffic conflict technique (TCT) is a powerful technique applied in road traffic safety assessment as a surrogate of the traditional accident data analysis. It has subdued the conceptual and implemental weaknesses of the accident statistics. Although this technique has been applied effectively in road traffic, it has not been practised well in marine traffic even though this traffic system has some distinct advantages in terms of having a monitoring system. This monitoring system can provide navigational information as well as other geometric information of the ships for a larger study area over a longer time period. However, for implementing the TCT in the marine traffic system, it should be examined critically to suit the complex nature of the traffic system. This paper examines the suitability of the TCT to be applied to marine traffic and proposes a framework for a follow up comprehensive conflict study.

Experimental evaluation of MCDTK, the Monte Carlo DICOM Tool-Kit

The Monte Carlo DICOM Tool-Kit (MCDTK) is a software suite designed for treatment plan dose verification, using the BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc Monte Carlo codes. MCDTK converts DICOM-format treatment plan information into Monte Carlo input files and compares the results of Monte Carlo treatment simulations with conventional treatment planning dose calculations. In this study, a treatment is planned using a commercial treatment planning system, delivered to a pelvis phantom containing ten thermoluminescent dosimeters and simulated using BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc using inputs derived from MCDTK. The dosimetric accuracy of the Monte Carlo data is then evaluated via comparisons with the dose distribution obtained from the treatment planning system as well as the in-phantom point dose measurements. The simulated beam arrangement produced by MCDTK is found to be in geometric agreement with the planned treatment. An isodose display generated from the Monte Carlo data by MCDTK shows general agreement with the isodose display obtained from the treatment planning system, except for small regions around density heterogeneities in the phantom, where the pencil-beam dose calculation performed by the treatment planning systemis likely to be less accurate. All point dose measurements agree with the Monte Carlo data obtained using MCDTK, within confidence limits, and all except one of these point dose measurements show closer agreement with theMonte Carlo data than with the doses calculated by the treatment planning system. This study provides a simple demonstration of the geometric and dosimetric accuracy ofMonte Carlo simulations based on information from MCDTK.

Population structure of Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in southeast Asia: evidence for a single species hypothesis using mitochondrial DNA and wingshape data

Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.

The development of ground impact models for the analysis of the risks associated with Unmanned Aircraft Operations over inhabited areas

With the emergence of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) there is a growing need for safety standards and regulatory frameworks to manage the risks associated with their operations. The primary driver for airworthiness regulations (i.e., those governing the design, manufacture, maintenance and operation of UAS) are the risks presented to people in the regions overflown by the aircraft. Models characterising the nature of these risks are needed to inform the development of airworthiness regulations. The output from these models should include measures of the collective, individual and societal risk. A brief review of these measures is provided. Based on the review, it was determined that the model of the operation of an UAS over inhabited areas must be capable of describing the distribution of possible impact locations, given a failure at a particular point in the flight plan. Existing models either do not take the impact distribution into consideration, or propose complex and computationally expensive methods for its calculation. A computationally efficient approach for estimating the boundary (and in turn area) of the impact distribution for fixed wing unmanned aircraft is proposed. A series of geometric templates that approximate the impact distributions are derived using an empirical analysis of the results obtained from a 6-Degree of Freedom (6DoF) simulation. The impact distributions can be aggregated to provide impact footprint distributions for a range of generic phases of flight and missions. The maximum impact footprint areas obtained from the geometric template are shown to have a relative error of typically less than 1% compared to the areas calculated using the computationally more expensive 6DoF simulation. Computation times for the geometric models are on the order of one second or less, using a standard desktop computer. Future work includes characterising the distribution of impact locations within the footprint boundaries.

Towards spontaneous facial expression recognition in real-world video

Facial expression is an important channel of human social communication. Facial expression recognition (FER) aims to perceive and understand emotional states of humans based on information in the face. Building robust and high performance FER systems that can work in real-world video is still a challenging task, due to the various unpredictable facial variations and complicated exterior environmental conditions, as well as the difficulty of choosing a suitable type of feature descriptor for extracting discriminative facial information. Facial variations caused by factors such as pose, age, gender, race and occlusion, can exert profound influence on the robustness, while a suitable feature descriptor largely determines the performance. Most present attention on FER has been paid to addressing variations in pose and illumination. No approach has been reported on handling face localization errors and relatively few on overcoming facial occlusions, although the significant impact of these two variations on the performance has been proved and highlighted in many previous studies. Many texture and geometric features have been previously proposed for FER. However, few comparison studies have been conducted to explore the performance differences between different features and examine the performance improvement arisen from fusion of texture and geometry, especially on data with spontaneous emotions. The majority of existing approaches are evaluated on databases with posed or induced facial expressions collected in laboratory environments, whereas little attention has been paid on recognizing naturalistic facial expressions on real-world data. This thesis investigates techniques for building robust and high performance FER systems based on a number of established feature sets. It comprises of contributions towards three main objectives: (1) Robustness to face localization errors and facial occlusions. An approach is proposed to handle face localization errors and facial occlusions using Gabor based templates. Template extraction algorithms are designed to collect a pool of local template features and template matching is then performed to covert these templates into distances, which are robust to localization errors and occlusions. (2) Improvement of performance through feature comparison, selection and fusion. A comparative framework is presented to compare the performance between different features and different feature selection algorithms, and examine the performance improvement arising from fusion of texture and geometry. The framework is evaluated for both discrete and dimensional expression recognition on spontaneous data. (3) Evaluation of performance in the context of real-world applications. A system is selected and applied into discriminating posed versus spontaneous expressions and recognizing naturalistic facial expressions. A database is collected from real-world recordings and is used to explore feature differences between standard database images and real-world images, as well as between real-world images and real-world video frames. The performance evaluations are based on the JAFFE, CK, Feedtum, NVIE, Semaine and self-collected QUT databases. The results demonstrate high robustness of the proposed approach to the simulated localization errors and occlusions. Texture and geometry have different contributions to the performance of discrete and dimensional expression recognition, as well as posed versus spontaneous emotion discrimination. These investigations provide useful insights into enhancing robustness and achieving high performance of FER systems, and putting them into real-world applications.

How important is length? : mechanical testing and measurement of a cemented, polished, tapered femoral implant

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) has a proven clinical record for providing pain relief and return of function to patients with disabling arthritis. There are many successful options for femoral implant design and fixation. Cemented, polished, tapered femoral implants have been shown to have excellent results in national joint registries and long-term clinical series. These implants are usually 150mm long at their lateral aspect. Due to their length, these implants cannot always be offered to patients due to variations in femoral anatomy. Polished, tapered implants as short as 95mm exist, however their small proximal geometry (neck offset and body size) limit their use to smaller stature patients. There is a group of patients in which a shorter implant with a maintained proximal body size would be advantageous. There are also potential benefits to a shorter implant in standard patient populations such as reduced bone removal due to reduced reaming, favourable loading of the proximal femur, and the ability to revise into good proximal bone stock if required. These factors potentially make a shorter implant an option for all patient populations. The role of implant length in determining the stability of a cemented, polished, tapered femoral implant is not well defined by the literature. Before changes in implant design can be made, a better understanding of the role of each region in determining performance is required. The aim of the thesis was to describe how implant length affects the stability of a cemented, polished, tapered femoral implant. This has been determined through an extensive body of laboratory testing. The major findings are that for a given proximal body size, a reduction in implant length has no effect on the torsional stability of a polished, tapered design, while a small reduction in axial stability should be expected. These findings are important because the literature suggests that torsional stability is the major determinant of long-term clinical performance of a THA system. Furthermore, a polished, tapered design is known to be forgiving of cement-implant interface micromotion due to the favourable wear characteristics. Together these findings suggest that a shorter polished, tapered implant may be well tolerated. The effect of a change in implant length on the geometric characteristics of polished, tapered design were also determined and applied to the mechanical testing. Importantly, interface area does play a role in stability of the system; however it is the distribution of the interface and not the magnitude of the area that defines stability. Taper angle (at least in the range of angles seen in this work) was shown not to be a determinant of axial or torsional stability. A range of implants were tested, comparing variations in length, neck offset and indication (primary versus cement-in-cement revision). At their manufactured length, the 125mm implants were similar to their longer 150mm counterparts suggesting that they may be similarly well tolerated in the clinical environment. However, the slimmer cement-in-cement revision implant was shown to have a poorer mechanical performance, suggesting their use in higher demand patients may be hazardous. An implant length of 125mm has been shown to be quite stable and the results suggest that a further reduction to 100mm may be tolerated. However, further work is required. A shorter implant with maintained proximal body size would be useful for the group of patients who are unable to access the current standard length implants due to variations in femoral anatomy. Extending the findings further, the similar function with potential benefits of a shorter implant make their application to all patients appealing.

Neural network-based detection of virtual environment anomalies

The increasingly widespread use of large-scale 3D virtual environments has translated into an increasing effort required from designers, developers and testers. While considerable research has been conducted into assisting the design of virtual world content and mechanics, to date, only limited contributions have been made regarding the automatic testing of the underpinning graphics software and hardware. In the work presented in this paper, two novel neural network-based approaches are presented to predict the correct visualization of 3D content. Multilayer perceptrons and self-organizing maps are trained to learn the normal geometric and color appearance of objects from validated frames and then used to detect novel or anomalous renderings in new images. Our approach is general, for the appearance of the object is learned rather than explicitly represented. Experiments were conducted on a game engine to determine the applicability and effectiveness of our algorithms. The results show that the neural network technology can be effectively used to address the problem of automatic and reliable visual testing of 3D virtual environments.

Restructuring of carbonaceous particles upon exposure to organic vapours

Recent research has described the restructuring of particles upon exposure to organic vapours; however, as yet hypotheses able to explain this phenomenon are limited. In this study, a range of experiments were performed to explore different hypotheses related to carbonaceous particle restructuring upon exposure to organic and water vapours, such as: the effect of surface tension, the role of organics in flocculating primary particles, as well as the ability of vapours to “wet” the particle surface. The change in mobility diameter (dm) was investigated for a range carbonaceous particle types (diesel exhaust, petrol exhaust, cigarette smoke, candle smoke, particles generated in a heptane/toluene flame, and wood smoke particles) exposed to different organic (heptane, ethanol, and dimethyl sulfoxide/water (1:1 vol%) mixture) and water vapours. Particles were first size-selected and then bubbled through an impinger (bubbler) containing either an organic solvent or water, where particles trapped inside rising bubbles were exposed to saturated vapours of the solvent in the impinger. The size distribution of particles was simultaneously measured upstream and downstream from the impinger. A size-dependent reduction in dm was observed when bubbling diesel exhaust, particles generated in a heptane/toluene flame, and candle smoke particles through heptane, ethanol and a dimethyl sulfoxide/water (1:1 vol %) mixture. In addition, the size distributions of particles bubbled through an impinger were broader. Moreover, an increase of the geometric standard deviation (σ) of the size distributions of particles bubbled through an impinger was also found to be size-dependent. Size-dependent reduction in dm and an increase of σ indicate that particles undergo restructuring to a more compact form, which was confirmed by TEM analysis. However, bubbling of these particles through water did not result in a size-dependent reduction in dm, nor in an increase of σ. Cigarette smoke, petrol exhaust, and wood smoke particles did not result in any substantial change in dm, or σ, when bubbled through organic solvents or water. Therefore, size-dependent reduction in the dm upon bubbling through organic solvents was observed only for particles that had a fractal-like structure, whilst particles that were liquid or were assumed to be spherical did not exhibit any reduction in dm. Compaction of fractal-like particles was attributed to the ability of condensing vapours to efficiently wet the particles. Our results also show that the presence of an organic layer on the surface of fractal-like particles, or the surface tension of the condensed liquid do not influence the extent of compaction.

Building envelope : performance optimisation processes for a daylight responsive architecture

Traditional shading design principles guide the vertical and horizontal orientation of fins, louvres and awnings being applied to orthogonal planar façades. Due to doubly curved envelopes characterising many contemporary designs, these rules of thumb are now not always applicable. Operable blinds attempt to regulate the fluctuating luminance of daylight and aid in shading direct sunlight. Mostly they remain closed, as workers are commonly too preoccupied to continually adjust them so a reliance on electrically powered lights remains a preference. To remedy these problems, the idea of what it is to sustainable enclose space is reconsidered through the geometric and kinetic optimisation of a parametric skin, with sunlight responsive modules that regulate interior light levels. This research concludes with an optimised design and also defines some unique metrics to gauge the design’s performance in terms of, the amount of exterior unobstructed view, its ability to shade direct sunlight and, its daylight glare probability.

Randomised controlled trial of an automated, interactive telephone intervention (TLC Diabetes) to improve type 2 diabetes management : Baseline findings and six-month outcomes

Background: Effective self-management of diabetes is essential for the reduction of diabetes-related complications, as global rates of diabetes escalate. Methods: Randomised controlled trial. Adults with type 2 diabetes (n = 120), with HbA1c greater than or equal to 7.5 %, were randomly allocated (4 × 4 block randomised block design) to receive an automated, interactive telephone-delivered management intervention or usual routine care. Baseline sociodemographic, behavioural and medical history data were collected by self-administered questionnaires and biological data were obtained during hospital appointments. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) was measured using the SF-36. Results: The mean age of participants was 57.4 (SD 8.3), 63 % of whom were male. There were no differences in demographic, socioeconomic and behavioural variables between the study arms at baseline. Over the six-month period from baseline, participants receiving the Australian TLC (Telephone-Linked Care) Diabetes program showed a 0.8 % decrease in geometric mean HbA1c from 8.7 % to 7.9 %, compared with a 0.2 % HbA1c reduction (8.9 % to 8.7 %) in the usual care arm (p = 0.002). There was also a significant improvement in mental HRQL, with a mean increase of 1.9 in the intervention arm, while the usual care arm decreased by 0.8 (p = 0.007). No significant improvements in physical HRQL were observed. Conclusions: These analyses indicate the efficacy of the Australian TLC Diabetes program with clinically significant post-intervention improvements in both glycaemic control and mental HRQL. These observed improvements, if supported and maintained by an ongoing program such as this, could significantly reduce diabetes-related complications in the longer term. Given the accessibility and feasibility of this kind of program, it has strong potential for providing effective, ongoing support to many individuals with diabetes in the future.