One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Global forest governance

This book identifies the fundamental legal principles and the governance requirements of sustainable forest management. An analytical model for assessing forest regulation is created which identifies the doctrinal concepts that underpin forest regulation (justice, property, sovereignty and governance). It also highlights the dominant public international institutions involved in forest regulation (UNFF, UNFCCC and WB) which is followed by analysis of non-state international forest regulation (forest certification and ecosystem markets). The book concludes by making a number of practical recommendations for reform of global forest governance arrangements and suggested reforms for individual international forest institutions.

In defence of Victoria's Children's Court : its value and role in the child protection system

Australian child protection systems have been subject to sustained and significant criticism for many decades. As a central part of that system Children’s Courts have been implicated: three recent inquiries into the child protection system in Victoria all criticised the Family Division of the Children’s Court.1 In the resulting debate two diametrically opposed points of view surfaced about the Children’s Court and the role that legal procedures and professionals should play in child protection matters. On one side bodies like the Children’s Court of Victoria, Victoria Legal Aid (‘VLA’), the Law Institute of Victoria (‘LIV’), and the Federation of Community Legal Centres (‘FCLC’) argued that the Children’s Court plays a vital role in child protection and should continue to play that role.2 On the other side a coalition of human service and child protection agencies called for major change including the removal of the Children’s Court from the child protection system. Victoria’s Department of Human Services (‘DHS’) has been critical of the Court3 as have community sector organisations like Anglicare, Berry Street, MacKillop Family Services and the Salvation Army — all agencies the DHS funds to deliver child protection services.4 Victoria’s Child Safety Commissioner has also called for major reform, publicly labelling the Court a ‘lawyers’ playground’ and recommending abolishing the Court’s involvement in child protection completely.

Opportunities for forest finance under the International climate change regime

The international climate change regime has the potential to increase revenue available for forest restoration projects in Commonwealth nations. There are three mechanisms which could be used to fund forest projects aimed at forest conservation, forest restoration and sustainable forest management. The first forest funding opportunity arises under the clean development mechanism, a flexibility mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. The clean development mechanism allows Annex I parties (industrialised nations) to invest in emission reduction activities in non-Annex 1 (developing countries) and the establishment of forest sinks is an eligible clean development mechanism activity. Secondly, parties to the Kyoto Protocol are able to include sustainable forest management activities in their national carbon accounting. The international rules concerning this are called the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Guidelines. Thirdly, it is anticipated that at the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations that a Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) instrument will be created. This will provide a direct funding mechanism for those developing countries with tropical forests. Payments made under a REDD arrangement will be based upon the developing country with tropical forest cover agreeing to protect and conserve a designated forest estate. These three funding options available under the international climate change regime demonstrate that there is potential for forest finance within the regime. These opportunities are however hindered by a number of technical and policy barriers which prevent the ability of the regime to significantly increase funding for forest projects. There are two types of carbon markets, compliance carbon markets (Kyoto based) and voluntary carbon markets. Voluntary carbon markets are more flexible then compliance markets and as such offer potential to increase revenue available for sustainable forest projects.

Australia and Forest Carbon Partnerships : Indigenous Land Rights

One of the ways in which indigenous communities seek justice is through the formal recognition of their sovereign rights to land. Such recognition allows indigenous groups to maintain a physical and spiritual connection with their land and continue customary management of their land. Indigenous groups world over face significant hurdles in getting their customary rights to land recognized by legal systems. One of the main difficulties for indigenous groups in claiming customary land rights is the existence of a range of conflicting legal entitlements attaching to the land in question. In Australia, similar to New Zealand and Canada legal recognition to customary land is recognized through a grant of native title rights or through the establishment of land use agreement. In other jurisdictions such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea a form of customary land title has been preserved and is recognized by the legal system. The implementation of REDD+ and other forms of forest carbon investment activities compounds the already complex arrangements surrounding legal recognition of customary land rights. Free, prior and informed consent of indigenous groups is essential for forest carbon investment on customary land. The attainment of such consent in practice remains challenging due to the number of conflicting interests often associated with forested land. This paper examines Australia’s experience in recongising indigenous land rights under its International Forest Carbon Initiative and under its domestic Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act (Australia) 2011. Australia’s International Forest Carbon initiative has a budget of $273 million dollars. In 2008 the governments of Australia and Indonesia signed the Indonesia-Australia Forest Carbon Partnership Agreement. This paper will examine the indigenous land tenure and justice lessons learned from the implementation of the Kalimantan Forest and Climate Partnership (KFCP). The KFCP is $30 million dollar project taking place over 120,000 hectares of degraded and forested peatland in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The KFCP project site contains seven villages of the Dayak Ngdu indigenous people. In 2011 Australia established a domestic Forest Carbon Initiative, which seeks to provide new economic opportunities for farmers, forest growers and indigenous landholders while helping the environmental by reducing carbon pollution. This paper will explore the manner in which indigenous people are able to participate within these scheme noting the limits and opportunities in deriving co-benefits for indigenous people in Australia under this scheme.

Protection of Refugees and Displaced Persons in the Asia Pacific Region

The chapters in this book explore the impact of recent shifts in global and regional power and the subsequent development and enforcement of international refugee protection standards in the Asia Pacific region. Drawing on their expertise across a number of jurisdictions, the contributors assess the challenges confronting the implementation of international law in the region, as well as new opportunities for extending protection norms into national and regional dialogues. The case studies span key jurisdictions across the region and include a comparative analysis with China, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Australia. This topical and important book raises critical questions for the Asia Pacific region and sheds light on the challenges confronting the protection of refugees and displaced persons in this area. Interdisciplinary in its approach, it will be of interest to academics, researchers, students and policy-makers concerned with the rights and protection of refugees.

The effectiveness of the best interests duty : enhancing consumer protection?

This article considers the uncertainty surrounding the scope of the best interests duty which forms part of the Government’s Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) reforms. It is likely to be many years before the courts can interpret and clarify the content of the duty. Under the new regime, the provision of personal financial advice will be made more difficult, complex and costly and these costs will be passed on to consumers. The article also considers whether there will still be scope for delivering standardized, non-tailored advice in the light of the best interests duty. In the pas standardized advice has allowed large amounts of low-level, generic advice to be delivered very efficiently. In order to avoid breaching the best interests duty standardized advice should only be used rarely, and only after a careful assessment has been made to ensure that a standardized approach is appropriate.

Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50 km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk.

Using variable speed limits for motorway off-ramp queue protection

Motorway off-ramps are a significant source of traffic congestion and collisions. Heavy diverging traffic to off-ramps slows down the mainline traffic speed. When the off-ramp queue spillbacks onto the mainline, it leads to a major breakdown of the motorway capacity and a significant threat to the traffic safety. This paper proposes using Variable Speed Limits (VSL) for protection of the motorway off-ramp queue and thus to promote safety in congested diverging areas. To support timely activation of VSL in advance of queue spillover, a proactive control strategy is proposed based on a real-time off-ramp queue estimation and prediction. This process determines the estimated queue size in the near-term future, on which the decision to change speed limits is made. VSL can effectively slow down traffic as it is mandatory that drivers follow the changed speed limits. A collateral benefit of VSL is its potential effect on drivers making them more attentive to the surrounding traffic conditions, and prepared for a sudden braking of the leading car. This paper analyses and quantifies these impacts and potential benefits of VSL on traffic safety and efficiency using the microsimulation approach.

Work-integrated learning courses : an essential component for preparing students to work in statutory child protection?

Undergraduate programs can play an important role in the development of individuals wanting professional employment within statutory child protection agencies: both the coursework and the work-integrated learning (WIL) components of degrees have a role in this process. This paper uses a collective case study methodology to examine the perceptions and experiences of first year practitioners within a specific statutory child protection agency in order to identify if they felt prepared for their current role. The sample of 20 participants came from a range of discipline backgrounds with just over half of the sample (55 per cent) completing a WIL placement as part of their undergraduate studies. The results indicate that while some participants were able to identify and articulate specific benefits from their undergraduate coursework studies all participants who had undertaken a WIL placement as part of their degree believed the WIL placement was beneficial for their current work.

Protection of structural systems and mechanisms from catastrophic and life-threatening failure caused by unforeseeable events

Structural framing systems and mechanisms designed for normal use rarely possess adequate robustness to withstand the effects of large impacts, blasts and extreme earthquakes that have been experienced in recent times. Robustness is the property of systems that enables them to survive unforeseen or unusual circumstances (Knoll & Vogel, 2009). Queensland University of Technology with industry collaboration is engaged in a program of research that commenced 15 years ago to study the impact of such unforeseeable phenomena and investigate methods of improving robustness and safety with protective mechanisms embedded or designed in structural systems. This paper highlights some of the research pertaining to seismic protection of building structures, rollover protective structures and effects of vehicular impact and blast on key elements in structures that could propagate catastrophic and disproportionate collapse.

Volunteers 'piggy-backing' on their private insurance : an uncertain protection against liability

Volunteering is a very important part of life in Australia with an estimated 36% of the adult population volunteering in 2010. Voluntary work generates economic benefits, addresses community needs and develops the social networks that form the backbone of civil society. Without volunteers, many essential services would either cease to exist or become too expensive for many people to afford. These volunteers, who by definition are not in receipt of any remuneration for their work and services, are exposed to personal injury and to legal liability in the discharge of their functions. It is therefore appropriate that statutory protection is extended to volunteers and that volunteer organisations procure public liability and personal accident cover where possible. However, given the patchwork quilt of circumstances where statutory or institutional cover is available to volunteers and the existence of many and diverse exclusions, it is important to have regard also to what scope a volunteer may have to avail themselves of protection against liability for volunteering activity by relying upon their own personal insurance cover. This article considers the extent of private insurance cover and its availability to volunteers under home and contents insurance and under comprehensive motor vehicle insurance. The most common policies in the Australian market are examined and the uncertain nature of protection against liability afforded by these policies is discussed. This uncertainty could be reduced should the Federal Government through amendments to the Insurance Contracts Regulations standardise the circumstances and extent to which liability protection was afforded to an insured holding home and contents insurance and comprehensive motor vehicle insurance cover.

Conflicts over protection of marine living resources : the ‘Volga Case’ revisited

Non-traditional maritime security concerns have become more importantthan ever in the post-Cold War era. Naval forces of most developedcountries are more concerned about these threats than conventional war.One of the main maritime security issues for many countries in the world isillegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing in the marine area. Withthese burgeoning issues comes the potential for a large number of disputesinvolving international law. In early 2002, a long-line fishing vessel under aRussian flag –the Volga, was detained by Australian authorities a few hundred meters outside the Exclusive Economic Zone of Australia’s Heard and McDonald Islands in the Southern Ocean. The vessel was reportedly engaged in illegal fishing. This incident gave birth to litigation in international and Australian courts. Apart from these cases, Russia also announced separate litigation against Australia for violation of Articles 111and 87 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (NCLOS).Considering the outcome of these cases, this article critically examines thecharacteristics of litigation as a strategy for pacific settlement of disputesover marine living resources. Using the Volga Case as an example, thisarticle explores some issues related to the judicial settlement of disputes over marine living resources. This article demonstrates that the legal certainty of winning a case may not be the only factor influencing the strategy for settlement of an international dispute.

UNCLOS and regional action for protection of the marine environment : perspectives of the South Asian Seas region

In very clear language the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) calls upon the parties to initiate regional action for protection of marine environment. Although the UNCLOS gives special recognition in various ways to developing countries, the South Asian developing countries continue to encounter some bottlenecks in complying with the provisions of the Convention relating to marine environment. Against this backdrop, this paper tends to examine the need for a regional approach towards conservation of marine environment. Moreover, the paper aims to explore possible ways to establish a regional legal framework for conservation of marine environment in South Asian region. In doing so, the paper critically examines existing mechanisms already in place including the South Asian Seas Programme and South Asian Seas Action Plan