Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

Mathematics funds of knowledge : sotmaute and sermaute fish in a Torres Strait Islander community

The purpose of this article is to describe a project with one Torres Strait Islander Community. It provides some insights into parents’ funds of knowledge that are mathematical in nature, such as sorting shells and giving fish. The idea of funds of knowledge is based on the premise that people are competent and have knowledge that has been historically and culturally accumulated into a body of knowledge and skills essential for their functioning and well-being. This knowledge is then practised throughout their lives and passed onto the next generation of children. Through adopting a community research approach, funds of knowledge that can be used to validate the community’s identities as knowledgeable people, can also be used as foundations for future learnings for teachers, parents and children in the early years of school. They can be the bridge that joins a community’s funds of knowledge with schools validating that knowledge.

The relationship between chronic disease self-efficacy and nutritional status, functional ability and quality of life in older adults at risk of hospital readmission

Background and significance: Older adults with chronic diseases are at increasing risk of hospital admission and readmission. Approximately 75% of adults have at least one chronic condition, and the odds of developing a chronic condition increases with age. Chronic diseases consume about 70% of the total Australian health expenditure, and about 59% of hospital events for chronic conditions are potentially preventable. These figures have brought to light the importance of the management of chronic disease among the growing older population. Many studies have endeavoured to develop effective chronic disease management programs by applying social cognitive theory. However, limited studies have focused on chronic disease self-management in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Moreover, although the majority of studies have covered wide and valuable outcome measures, there is scant evidence on examining the fundamental health outcomes such as nutritional status, functional status and health-related quality of life. Aim: The aim of this research was to test social cognitive theory in relation to self-efficacy in managing chronic disease and three health outcomes, namely nutritional status, functional status, and health-related quality of life, in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this research. Three studies were undertaken. Study One examined the nutritional status and validation of a nutritional screening tool; Study Two explored the relationships between participants. characteristics, self-efficacy beliefs, and health outcomes based on the study.s hypothesized model; Study Three tested a theoretical model based on social cognitive theory, which examines potential mechanisms of the mediation effects of social support and self-efficacy beliefs. One hundred and fifty-seven patients aged 65 years and older with a medical admission and at least one risk factor for readmission were recruited. Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history, and from self-report questionnaires. The nutrition data were collected by two registered nurses. For Study One, a contingency table and the kappa statistic was used to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool. In Study Two, standard multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression and logistic regression were undertaken to determine the significant influential predictors for the three health outcome measures. For Study Three, a structural equation modelling approach was taken to test the hypothesized self-efficacy model. Results: The findings of Study One suggested that a high prevalence of malnutrition continues to be a concern in older adults as the prevalence of malnutrition was 20.6% according to the Subjective Global Assessment. Additionally, the findings confirmed that the Malnutrition Screening Tool is a valid nutritional screening tool for hospitalized older adults at risk of readmission when compared to the Subjective Global Assessment with high sensitivity (94%), and specificity (89%) and substantial agreement between these two methods (k = .74, p < .001; 95% CI .62-.86). Analysis data for Study Two found that depressive symptoms and perceived social support were the two strongest influential factors for self-efficacy in managing chronic disease in a hierarchical multiple regression. Results of multivariable regression models suggested advancing age, depressive symptoms and less tangible support were three important predictors for malnutrition. In terms of functional status, a standard regression model found that social support was the strongest predictor for the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, followed by self-efficacy in managing chronic disease. The results of standard multiple regression revealed that the number of hospital readmission risk factors adversely affected the physical component score, while depressive symptoms and self-efficacy beliefs were two significant predictors for the mental component score. In Study Three, the results of the structural equation modelling found that self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of health characteristics and depression on health-related quality of life. The health characteristics had strong direct effects on functional status and body mass index. The results also indicated that social support partially mediated the relationship between health characteristics and functional status. With regard to the joint effects of social support and self-efficacy, social support fully mediated the effect of health characteristics on self-efficacy, and self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of social support on functional status and health-related quality of life. The results also demonstrated that the models fitted the data well with relative high variance explained by the models, implying the hypothesized constructs under discussion were highly relevant, and hence the application for social cognitive theory in this context was supported. Conclusion: This thesis highlights the applicability of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults at risk of hospital readmission. Further studies are recommended to validate and continue to extend the development of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults to improve their nutritional and functional status, and health-related quality of life.

Markers of chronic disease in offenders in a high secure correctional centre in Queensland

This study aimed to gauge the presence of markers of chronic disease, as a basis for food and nutrition policy in correctional facilities. One hundred and twenty offenders, recruited from a Queensland Correctional Centre, provided informed consent and completed both dietary interviews and physical measurements. Mean age of the sample was 35.5 ± 12 years (range = 19–77 yrs); mean age of the total population (n = 945) was 32.8 ± 10 years (range = 19–80 yrs). Seventy-nine participants also provided fasting blood samples. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 27 ± 3.5 kg/m2; 72% having a BMI > 25 kg/m2. Thirty-three percent were classified overweight or obese using waist circumference (mean = 92 ± 10 cm). Mean blood pressure measurement was systolic = 130 ± 14 mmHg and diastolic = 73 ± 10 mmHg. Twenty-four percent were classified as hypertensive of whom three were on antihypertensive medication. Eighteen percent had elevated triglycerides, and 40% unfavourable total cholesterol to HDL ratios. Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA scores) were calculated from glucose and insulin. Four participants were insulin resistant, two of whom had known diabetes. Metabolic syndrome, based on waist circumference (adjusted for ethnicity), blood lipids, blood pressure and plasma glucose indicated that 25% (n = 20) were classified with metabolic syndrome. Eighty-four percent (n = 120) reported some physical activity each day, with 51 percent participating ≥two times daily. Fifty-four percent reported smoking with an additional 20% having smoked in the past. Findings suggest that waist circumference rather than weight and BMI only should be used in this group to determine weight status. The data suggest that markers of chronic disease are present and that food and nutrition policy must reflect this. Further analysis is being completed to determine relevant policy initiatives.

The 'obesity paradox' in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Poor nutritional status in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased mortality independently of disease-severity (Collins et al).1 Epidemiological studies have suggested a protective role of obesity against mortality in COPD (Vestbo et al)2 which is contrary to data from the general population where obesity is associated with decreased life expectancy. This relationship has been referred to as the ‘obesity paradox’ and has been demonstrated in a number of chronic wasting conditions (Kalantar-Zadeh et al).3 This study investigated the existence of the obesity paradox in outpatients with COPD by examining the effect of body mass index (BMI) on 1-year healthcare use and clinical outcome in terms of hospital admission rates, length of hospital stay, outpatient appointments and mortality. BMI was assessed in 424 outpatients with COPD, with measurements performed by specialist respiratory nurses during outpatient clinics. 1-year healthcare use was retrospectively collected from the date of BMI measurement. Abstract S163 Table 1 Patients classified as overweight (25.0–29.9 kg/m2) or obese (>30 kg/m2) experienced significantly fewer emergency hospital admissions, as well as a reduced length of hospital stay, in comparison to normal weight (20.0–24.9 kg/m2) or underweight (<20 kg/m2) outpatients. There was a significant negative trend between BMI classification and mortality. This study supports the existence of the ‘obesity paradox’ in COPD, not only in relation to reduced 1 year mortality rates but also in terms of reduced emergency hospital admissions and reduced length of hospital stay.

P147 Deprivation is associated with increased healthcare utilisation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation assessed using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) has been shown to be an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COPD (Collins et al, 2010). IMD combines a number of economic and social issues (eg, health, education, employment) into one overall deprivation score, the higher the score the higher an individual's deprivation. Whilst malnutrition in COPD has been linked to increased healthcare use it is not clear if deprivation is also independently associated. This study aimed to investigate the influence of deprivation on 1-year healthcare utilisation in outpatients with COPD. IMD was established in 424 outpatients with COPD according to the geographical location for each patient's address (postcode) and related to their healthcare use in the year post-date screened (Nobel et al, 2008). Patients were routinely screened in outpatient clinics for malnutrition using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia 2003); mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2 with healthcare use collected 1 year from screening (Abstract P147 Table 1). Deprivation assessed using IMD (mean 15.9; SD 11.1) was found to be a significant predictor for the frequency and duration of emergency hospital admissions as well as the duration of elective hospital admission. Deprivation was also linked to reduced secondary care outpatient appointment attendance but not an increase in failure to attend and deprivation was not associated with increased disease severity, as classified by the GOLD criteria (p=0.580). COPD outpatients residing in more deprived areas experience increased hospitalisation rates but decreased outpatient appointment attendance. The underlying reason behind this disparity in healthcare use requires further investigation.

Statistical phylogeographic tests of competing 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' in the mouth-brooding freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion (Apogonidae)

Glacial cycles during the Pleistocene reduced sea levels and created new land connections in northern Australia, where many currently isolated rivers also became connected via an extensive paleo-lake system, 'Lake Carpentaria'. However, the most recent period during which populations of freshwater species were connected by gene flow across Lake Carpentaria is debated: various 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' have been proposed. Here, we used a statistical phylogeographic approach to assess the timing of past population connectivity across the Carpentaria region in the obligate freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion. Results for this species indicate that the most recent period of genetic exchange across the Carpentaria region coincided with the mid- to late Pleistocene, a result shown previously for other freshwater and diadromous species. Based on these findings and published studies for various freshwater, diadromous and marine species, we propose a set of 'Lake Carpentaria' hypotheses to explain past population connectivity in aquatic species: (1) strictly freshwater species had widespread gene flow in the mid- to late Pleistocene before the last glacial maximum; (2) marine species were subdivided into eastern and western populations by land during Pleistocene glacial phases; and (3) past connectivity in diadromous species reflects the relative strength of their marine affinity.

Nutritional support in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of nutritional support in the management of malnutrition in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is controversial. Previous meta-analyses, based on only cross-sectional analysis at the end of intervention trials, found no evidence of improved outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to conduct a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to clarify the efficacy of nutritional support in improving intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in stable COPD. DESIGN: Literature databases were searched to identify RCTs comparing nutritional support with controls in stable COPD. RESULTS: Thirteen RCTs (n = 439) of nutritional support [dietary advice (1 RCT), oral nutritional supplements (ONS; 11 RCTs), and enteral tube feeding (1 RCT)] with a control comparison were identified. An analysis of the changes induced by nutritional support and those obtained only at the end of the intervention showed significantly greater increases in mean total protein and energy intakes with nutritional support of 14.8 g and 236 kcal daily. Meta-analyses also showed greater mean (±SE) improvements in favor of nutritional support for body weight (1.94 ± 0.26 kg, P < 0.001; 11 studies, n = 308) and grip strength (5.3%, P < 0.050; 4 studies, n = 156), which was not shown by ANOVA at the end of the intervention, largely because of bias associated with baseline imbalance between groups. CONCLUSION: This systematic review and meta-analysis showed that nutritional support, mainly in the form of ONS, improves total intake, anthropometric measures, and grip strength in COPD. These results contrast with the results of previous analyses that were based on only cross-sectional measures at the end of intervention trials.