Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Use of expert panels in highway safety: A critique

Expert panels have been used extensively in the development of the "Highway Safety Manual" to extract research information from highway safety experts. While the panels have been used to recommend agendas for new and continuing research, their primary role has been to develop accident modification factors—quantitative relationships between highway safety and various highway safety treatments. Because the expert panels derive quantitative information in a “qualitative” environment and because their findings can have significant impacts on highway safety investment decisions, the expert panel process should be described and critiqued. This paper is the first known written description and critique of the expert panel process and is intended to serve professionals wishing to conduct such panels.

Expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections in South Korea

Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.

Governors highway safety associations and transportation planning: Exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling

The Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) of 1991 mandated the consideration of safety in the regional transportation planning process. As part of National Cooperative Highway Research Program Project 8-44, "Incorporating Safety into the Transportation Planning Process," we conducted a telephone survey to assess safety-related activities and expertise at Governors Highway Safety Associations (GHSAs), and GHSA relationships with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and state departments of transportation (DOTs). The survey results were combined with statewide crash data to enable exploratory modeling of the relationship between GHSA policies and programs and statewide safety. The modeling objective was to illuminate current hurdles to ISTEA implementation, so that appropriate institutional, analytical, and personnel improvements can be made. The study revealed that coordination of transportation safety across DOTs, MPOs, GHSAs, and departments of public safety is generally beneficial to the implementation of safety. In addition, better coordination is characterized by more positive and constructive attitudes toward incorporating safety into planning.

Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety

The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

Framework for measuring corporate safety culture and its impact on construction safety performance

This paper presents the results of a structural equation model (SEM) that describes and quantifies the relationships between corporate culture and safety performance. The SEM is estimated using 196 individual questionnaire responses from three companies with better than average safety records. A multiattribute analysis of corporate safety culture characteristics resulted in a hierarchical description of corporate safety culture comprised of three major categories — people, process, and value. These three major categories were decomposed into 54 measurable questions and used to develop a questionnaire to quantify corporate safety culture. The SEM identified five latent variables that describe corporate safety culture: (1) a company’s safety commitment; (2) the safety incentives that are offered to field personal for safe performance; (3) the subcontractor involvement in the company culture; (4) the field safety accountability and dedication; and (5) the disincentives for unsafe behaviors. These characteristics of company safety culture serve as indicators for a company’s safety performance. Based on the findings from this limited sample of three companies, this paper proposes a list of practices that companies may consider to improve corporate safety culture and safety performance. A more comprehensive study based on a larger sample is recommended to corroborate the findings of this study.

A CFD study of Hong Kong refuge floor design : floor height effect

Since 1996, ther provision of a refuge floor has been a mandatory feature for all new tall buildings in Hong Kong. These floors are designed to provide for building occupants a fire safe environment that is also free from smoke. However, the desired cross ventilation on these floors to achieve the removal of smoke, assumed by the Building Codes of Hong Kong, is still being questioned so that a further scientific study of the wind-induced ventilation of a refuge fllor is needed. This paper presents an investigation into this issue. The developed computational technique used in this paper was adopted to study the wind-induced natural ventilation on a refuge floor. The aim of the investigation was to establish whether a refuge floor with a cetnral core and having cross ventilation produced by only two open opposite external side walls on the refuge floor would provide the required protection in all situations taking into account behaviour of wind due to different floor heights, wall boundary conditions and turbulence intensity profiles. The results revealed that natural ventilation can be increased by increasng the floor heigh provided the wind angle to the building is less than 90 degrees. The effectiveness of the solution was greatly reduced when the wind was blowing at 90 degrees to the refuge floor opening.

Use of lifts and refuge floors for fire evacuation in high rise apartment buildings

If current population and accommodation trends continue, Australian cities will, in the future, have noticeable numbers of apartment buildings over 60 storeys high. With an aging population it follows that a significant proportion of those occupying these buildings will be senior citizens, many of whom will have some form of disability. For these occupants a fire emergency in a high rise building presents a serious problem. Currently lifts cannot be used for evacuation and going down 60 storeys in a fire isolated staircase would be physically impossible for many. Therefore, for many, the temptation to remain in one’s unit will be very strong. With an awareness of this behaviour trend in older residents, many researchers have, in recent years, explored the possible wider use of lifts in a fire emergency. So far the use of lifts for evacuation has been approved for a small number of buildings but wide acceptance of this solution is still to be achieved. This paper concludes that even in high-rise apartment buildings where lifts are approved for evacuation, architects should design the building with alternative evacuation routes and provide suitable safe refuge areas for those who cannot use the stairs when the lifts are unavailable.

Use of ITS to improve level crossings safety : open issues

Level crossing crashes have been shown to result in enormous human and financial cost to society. According to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) [5] a total of 632 Railway Level crossing (RLX) collisions, between trains and road vehicles, occurred in Australia between 2001 and June 2009. The cost of RLX collisions runs into the tens of millions of dollars each year in Australia [6]. In addition, loss of life and injury are commonplace in instances where collisions occur. Based on estimates that 40% of rail related fatalities occur at level crossings [12], it is estimated that 142 deaths between 2001 and June 2009 occurred at RLX. The aim of this paper is to (i) summarise crash patterns in Australia, (ii) review existing international ITS interventions to improve level crossing and (iii) highlights open human factors research related issues. Human factors (e.g., driver error, lapses or violations) have been evidenced as a significant contributing factor in RLX collisions, with drivers of road vehicles particularly responsible for many collisions. Unintentional errors have been found to contribute to 46% of RLX collisions [6] and appear to be far more commonplace than deliberate violations. Humans have been found to be inherently inadequate at using the sensory information available to them to facilitate safe decision-making at RLX and tend to underestimate the speed of approaching large objects due to the non-linear increases in perceived size [6]. Collisions resulting from misjudgements of train approach speed and distance are common [20]. Thus, a fundamental goal for improved RLX safety is the provision of sufficient contextual information to road vehicle drivers to facilitate safe decision-making regarding crossing behaviours.

Assessment of the influence of cultural barriers to HDR supervision of non-English speaking background (NESD) students in engineering and information technology (IT) disciplines

The paper details the results of the first phase of an on-going research into the sociocultural factors that influence the supervision of higher degrees research (HDR) engineering students in the Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering (BEE) and Faculty of Science and Technology (FaST) at Queensland University of Technology. A quantitative analysis was performed on the results from an online survey that was administered to 179 engineering students. The study reveals that cultural barriers impact their progression and developing confidence in their research programs. We argue that in order to assist international and non-English speaking background (NESB) research students to triumph over such culturally embedded challenges in engineering research, it is important for supervisors to understand this cohort's unique pedagogical needs and develop intercultural sensitivity in their pedagogical practice in postgraduate research supervision. To facilitate this, the governing body (Office of Research) can play a vital role in not only creating the required support structures but also their uniform implementation across the board.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Development of an automated safety assessment framework for construction activities

This paper presents an ongoing research project concerning the development of an automated safety assessment framework for earthmoving and surface mining activities. This research seeks to determine data needs for safety assessment and investigates how to utilize collected data to promote more informed and efficient safety decision-making. The research first examined accidents and fatalities involved with earthmoving and surface mining activities—more specifically, those involving loading, hauling, and dumping operations,—investigated risk factors involved with the accidents, and finally identified data needs for safety assessment based on safety regulations and practices. An automated safety assessment method was then developed using the data needs that had been identified. This research is expected to contribute to the introduction of a fundamental framework for automated safety assessment and the systematic collection of safety-related data from construction activities. Implementation of the entire safety assessment process on actual construction sites remains a task for future research.

Modeling object identification and tracking errors on image-based safety assessment of earthmoving operations

Object identification and tracking have become critical for automated on-site construction safety assessment. The primary objective of this paper is to present the development of a testbed to analyze the impact of object identification and tracking errors caused by data collection devices and algorithms used for safety assessment. The testbed models workspaces for earthmoving operations and simulates safety-related violations, including speed limit violations, access violations to dangerous areas, and close proximity violations between heavy machinery. Three different cases were analyzed based on actual earthmoving operations conducted at a limestone quarry. Using the testbed, the impacts of device and algorithm errors were investigated for safety planning purposes.

Road safety issues for older road users : CARRS-Q Monograph 1

[Selection of papers from the Older Road User Safety Symposium, 26 November 2000, Brisbane, Australia.]----- This publication is a selection of papers on older road user safety which were presented at the Older Road User Safety Symposium on Sunday 26 November 2000 at the Sheraton Brisbane Hotel, Queensland, Australia. The Symposium was held on the day before Australia’s annual Road Safety Research, Policing and Education Conference, which provided an opportunity to garner both presenters and participants from the wider road safety community in Australia. Road safety is a large and diverse area of scholarship and practice, and many disciplines are drawn on in the processes of understanding and addressing road safety problems. The safety of older road users is no different. As this selection shows, work on older road user safety can be informed by demography, research on the mental and physical effects of ageing, social research on older people as road users, evaluation of educational and behavioural interventions, road crash analysis, engineering research and practice, and reviews of policy approaches within Australia and elsewhere. It is possible to summarise these into four constellations, which are reflected in the papers selected for this publication: social impacts and responses; physical and cognitive capability; specific road use performance; and environment/ecology. Though three years have passed since the Symposium, the issues raised in these papers remain current.

iRAP Malaysia training course : decade of action for road safety

The International Road Assessment Program (iRAP) is a not-for-profit organisation that works in partnership with governments and non-government organisations in all parts of the world to make roads safe. The iRAP Malaysia pilot study on 3700km of road identified the potential to prevent 31,800 deaths and serious injuries over the next 20 years from proven engineering improvements. To help ensure the iRAP data and results are available to planners and engineers, iRAP, together with staff from the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS-Q) and the Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research (MIROS), developed a five-day iRAP training course that covers the background, theory and practical application of iRAP protocols, with a special focus on Malaysian case studies. Funding was provided by a competitive grant from the Australia-Malaysia Institute.