169 resultados para Failure time data analysis


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Monitoring the environment with acoustic sensors is an effective method for understanding changes in ecosystems. Through extensive monitoring, large-scale, ecologically relevant, datasets can be produced that can inform environmental policy. The collection of acoustic sensor data is a solved problem; the current challenge is the management and analysis of raw audio data to produce useful datasets for ecologists. This paper presents the applied research we use to analyze big acoustic datasets. Its core contribution is the presentation of practical large-scale acoustic data analysis methodologies. We describe details of the data workflows we use to provide both citizen scientists and researchers practical access to large volumes of ecoacoustic data. Finally, we propose a work in progress large-scale architecture for analysis driven by a hybrid cloud-and-local production-grade website.

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Background: This study attempted to develop health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Poisson generalised additive model was performed to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) in Brisbane. Results: In general, the higher the intensity and the longer the duration of a heatwave, the greater the health impacts. There was no apparent difference in EHAs risk during different periods of a warm season. However, there was a greater risk of mortality in the second half of a warm season than that in the first half. While elderly (>75 years)were particularly vulnerable to both the EHA and mortality effects of a heatwave, the risk for EHAs also significantly increased for two other age groups (0-64 years and 65-74 years) during severe heatwaves. Different patterns between cardiorespiratory mortality and EHAs were observed. Based on these findings, we propose the use of a teiered heat warning system based on the health risk of heatwave. Conclusions: Health risk-based metrics are a useful tool for the development of local heatwave definitions. thsi tool may have significant implications for the assessment of heatwave-related health consequences and development of heatwave response plans and implementation strategies.

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Focus groups are a popular qualitative research method for information systems researchers. However, compared with the abundance of research articles and handbooks on planning and conducting focus groups, surprisingly, there is little research on how to analyse focus group data. Moreover, those few articles that specifically address focus group analysis are all in fields other than information systems, and offer little specific guidance for information systems researchers. Further, even the studies that exist in other fields do not provide a systematic and integrated procedure to analyse both focus group ‘content’ and ‘interaction’ data. As the focus group is a valuable method to answer the research questions of many IS studies (in the business, government and society contexts), we believe that more attention should be paid to this method in the IS research. This paper offers a systematic and integrated procedure for qualitative focus group data analysis in information systems research.

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Monitoring pedestrian and cyclists movement is an important area of research in transport, crowd safety, urban design and human behaviour assessment areas. Media Access Control (MAC) address data has been recently used as potential information for extracting features from people’s movement. MAC addresses are unique identifiers of WiFi and Bluetooth wireless technologies in smart electronics devices such as mobile phones, laptops and tablets. The unique number of each WiFi and Bluetooth MAC address can be captured and stored by MAC address scanners. MAC addresses data in fact allows for unannounced, non-participatory, and tracking of people. The use of MAC data for tracking people has been focused recently for applying in mass events, shopping centres, airports, train stations etc. In terms of travel time estimation, setting up a scanner with a big value of antenna’s gain is usually recommended for highways and main roads to track vehicle’s movements, whereas big gains can have some drawbacks in case of pedestrian and cyclists. Pedestrian and cyclists mainly move in built distinctions and city pathways where there is significant noises from other fixed WiFi and Bluetooth. Big antenna’s gains will cover wide areas that results in scanning more samples from pedestrians and cyclists’ MAC device. However, anomalies (such fixed devices) may be captured that increase the complexity and processing time of data analysis. On the other hand, small gain antennas will have lesser anomalies in the data but at the cost of lower overall sample size of pedestrian and cyclist’s data. This paper studies the effect of antenna characteristics on MAC address data in terms of travel-time estimation for pedestrians and cyclists. The results of the empirical case study compare the effects of small and big antenna gains in order to suggest optimal set up for increasing the accuracy of pedestrians and cyclists’ travel-time estimation.

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Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard-based models to develop in-depth insights into how the crash-specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, have been compared to random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared to the durations on motorway. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that, looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway.

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A combined data matrix consisting of high performance liquid chromatography–diode array detector (HPLC–DAD) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) measurements of samples from the plant roots of the Cortex moutan (CM), produced much better classification and prediction results in comparison with those obtained from either of the individual data sets. The HPLC peaks (organic components) of the CM samples, and the ICP-MS measurements (trace metal elements) were investigated with the use of principal component analysis (PCA) and the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) methods of data analysis; essentially, qualitative results suggested that discrimination of the CM samples from three different provinces was possible with the combined matrix producing best results. Another three methods, K-nearest neighbor (KNN), back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and least squares support vector machines (LS-SVM) were applied for the classification and prediction of the samples. Again, the combined data matrix analyzed by the KNN method produced best results (100% correct; prediction set data). Additionally, multiple linear regression (MLR) was utilized to explore any relationship between the organic constituents and the metal elements of the CM samples; the extracted linear regression equations showed that the essential metals as well as some metallic pollutants were related to the organic compounds on the basis of their concentrations

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Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

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Considering ultrasound propagation through complex composite media as an array of parallel sonic rays, a comparison of computer simulated prediction with experimental data has previously been reported for transmission mode (where one transducer serves as transmitter, the other as receiver) in a series of ten acrylic step-wedge samples, immersed in water, exhibiting varying degrees of transit time inhomogeneity. In this study, the same samples were used but in pulse-echo mode, where the same ultrasound transducer served as both transmitter and receiver, detecting both ‘primary’ (internal sample interface) and ‘secondary’ (external sample interface) echoes. A transit time spectrum (TTS) was derived, describing the proportion of sonic rays with a particular transit time. A computer simulation was performed to predict the transit time and amplitude of various echoes created, and compared with experimental data. Applying an amplitude-tolerance analysis, 91.7±3.7% of the simulated data was within ±1 standard deviation (STD) of the experimentally measured amplitude-time data. Correlation of predicted and experimental transit time spectra provided coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 100.0% to 96.8% for the various samples tested. The results acquired from this study provide good evidence for the concept of parallel sonic rays. Further, deconvolution of experimental input and output signals has been shown to provide an effective method to identify echoes otherwise lost due to phase cancellation. Potential applications of pulse-echo ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (PE-UTTS) include improvement of ultrasound image fidelity by improving spatial resolution and reducing phase interference artefacts.

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A smoothed rank-based procedure is developed for the accelerated failure time model to overcome computational issues. The proposed estimator is based on an EM-type procedure coupled with the induced smoothing. "The proposed iterative approach converges provided the initial value is based on a consistent estimator, and the limiting covariance matrix can be obtained from a sandwich-type formula. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator are also established. Extensive simulations show that the new estimator is not only computationally less demanding but also more reliable than the other existing estimators.

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This paper proposes a linear quantile regression analysis method for longitudinal data that combines the between- and within-subject estimating functions, which incorporates the correlations between repeated measurements. Therefore, the proposed method results in more efficient parameter estimation relative to the estimating functions based on an independence working model. To reduce computational burdens, the induced smoothing method is introduced to obtain parameter estimates and their variances. Under some regularity conditions, the estimators derived by the induced smoothing method are consistent and have asymptotically normal distributions. A number of simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results indicate that the efficiency gain for the proposed method is substantial especially when strong within correlations exist. Finally, a dataset from the audiology growth research is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.

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Background: A paradigm shift in educational policy to create problem solvers and critical thinkers produced the games concept approach (GCA) in Singapore's Revised Syllabus for Physical Education (1999). A pilot study (2001) conducted on 11 primary school student teachers (STs) using this approach identified time management and questioning as two of the major challenges faced by novice teachers. Purpose: To examine the GCA from three perspectives: structure—lesson form in terms of teacher-time and pupil-time; product—how STs used those time fractions; and process—the nature of their questioning (type, timing, and target). Participants and setting: Forty-nine STs from three different PETE cohorts (two-year diploma, four-year degree, two-year post-graduate diploma) volunteered to participate in the study conducted during the penultimate week of their final practicum in public primary and secondary schools. Intervention: Based on the findings of the pilot study, PETE increased the emphasis on GCA content specific knowledge and pedagogical procedures. To further support STs learning to actualise the GCA, authentic micro-teaching experiences that were closely monitored by faculty were provided in schools nearby. Research design: This is a descriptive study of time-management and questioning strategies implemented by STs on practicum. Each lesson was segmented into a number of sub-categories of teacher-time (organisation, demonstration and closure) and pupil-time (practice time and game time). Questions were categorised as knowledge, technical, tactical or affective. Data collection: Each ST was video-taped teaching a GCA lesson towards the end of their final practicum. The STs individually determined the timing of the data collection and the lesson to be observed. Data analysis: Each lesson was segmented into a number of sub-categories of both teacher- and pupil-time. Duration recording using Noldus software (Observer 4.0) segmented the time management of different lesson components. Questioning was coded in terms of type, timing and target. Separate MANOVAs were used to measure the difference between programmes and levels (primary and secondary) in relation to time-management procedures and questioning strategies. Findings: No differences emerged between the programmes or levels in their time-management or questioning strategies. Using the GCA, STs generated more pupil time (53%) than teacher time (47%). STs at the primary level provided more technical practice, and those in secondary schools more small-sided game play. Most questions (58%) were asked during play or practice but were substantially low-order involving knowledge or recall (76%) and only 6.7% were open-ended or divergent and capable of developing tactical awareness. Conclusions: Although STs are delivering more pupil time (practice and game) than teacher-time, the lesson structure requires further fine-tuning to extend the practice task beyond technical drills. Many questions are being asked to generate knowledge about games but lack sufficient quality to enhance critical thinking and tactical awareness, as the GCA intends.

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This paper explores how people communicate in reference to local interests and suggests information and communication technology (ICT) design for enhancement of local community networks. Qualitative data was gathered from participant observations of local community collective action and open interviews with active community members. Data analysis revealed concepts, leading to categories in relation to local interactions and interests. Design suggestions consider introducing people to local community private-strategic activity via public displays that indicate simple entry points to active participation, and creating information collections according to local community perspectives for long-term reference.

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Qualitative research methods require transparency to ensure the ‘trustworthiness’ of the data analysis. The intricate processes of organizing, coding and analyzing the data are often rendered invisible in the presentation of the research findings, which requires a ‘leap of faith’ for the reader. Computer assisted data analysis software can be used to make the research process more transparent, without sacrificing rich, interpretive analysis by the researcher. This article describes in detail how one software package was used in a poststructural study to link and code multiple forms of data to four research questions for fine-grained analysis. This description will be useful for researchers seeking to use qualitative data analysis software as an analytic tool.

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Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

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A spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of the important pharmaceuticals, pefloxacin and its structurally similar metabolite, norfloxacin, is described for the first time. The analysis is based on the monitoring of a kinetic spectrophotometric reaction of the two analytes with potassium permanganate as the oxidant. The measurement of the reaction process followed the absorbance decrease of potassium permanganate at 526 nm, and the accompanying increase of the product, potassium manganate, at 608 nm. It was essential to use multivariate calibrations to overcome severe spectral overlaps and similarities in reaction kinetics. Calibration curves for the individual analytes showed linear relationships over the concentration ranges of 1.0–11.5 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for pefloxacin, and 0.15–1.8 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for norfloxacin. Various multivariate calibration models were applied, at the two analytical wavelengths, for the simultaneous prediction of the two analytes including classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS), radial basis function-artificial neural network (RBF-ANN) and principal component-radial basis function-artificial neural network (PC-RBF-ANN). PLS and PC-RBF-ANN calibrations with the data collected at 526 nm, were the preferred methods—%RPET not, vert, similar 5, and LODs for pefloxacin and norfloxacin of 0.36 and 0.06 mg L−1, respectively. Then, the proposed method was applied successfully for the simultaneous determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin present in pharmaceutical and human plasma samples. The results compared well with those from the alternative analysis by HPLC.