Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients 2009 revision

Background: Currently used Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) coefficients, which measure probability of survival (Ps), were derived from the Major Trauma Outcome Study (MTOS) in 1995 and are now unlikely to be optimal. This study aims to estimate new TRISS coefficients using a contemporary database of injured patients presenting to emergency departments in the United States; and to compare these against the MTOS coefficients.---------- Methods: Data were obtained from the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) and the NTDB National Sample Project (NSP). TRISS coefficients were estimated using logistic regression. Separate coefficients were derived from complete case and multistage multiple imputation analyses for each NTDB and NSP dataset. Associated Ps over Injury Severity Score values were graphed and compared by age (adult ≥ 15 years; pediatric < 15 years) and injury mechanism (blunt; penetrating) groups. Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves was used to assess coefficients’ predictive performance.---------- Results: Overall 1,072,033 NTDB and 1,278,563 weighted NSP injury events were included, compared with 23,177 used in the original MTOS analyses. Large differences were seen between results from complete case and imputed analyses. For blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries, there were similarities between coefficients estimated on imputed samples, and marked divergences between associated Ps estimated and those from the MTOS. However, negligible differences existed between area under the receiver operating characteristic curves estimates because the overwhelming majority of patients had minor trauma and survived. For pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries, variability in coefficients was large and Ps estimates unreliable.---------- Conclusions: Imputed NTDB coefficients are recommended as the TRISS coefficients 2009 revision for blunt mechanism and adult penetrating mechanism injuries. Coefficients for pediatric penetrating mechanism injuries could not be reliably estimated.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Examination of social demographic status, disease status, health behaviours and quality of life in older Australians using the theory of planned behaviour model

The increase of life expectancy worldwide during the last three decades has increased age-related disability leading to the risk of loss of quality of life. How to improve quality of life including physical health and mental health for older people and optimize their life potential has become an important health issue. This study used the Theory of Planned Behaviour Model to examine factors influencing health behaviours, and the relationship with quality of life. A cross-sectional mailed survey of 1300 Australians over 50 years was conducted at the beginning of 2009, with 730 completed questionnaires returned (response rate 63%). Preliminary analysis reveals that physiological changes of old age, especially increasing waist circumference and co morbidity was closely related to health status, especially worse physical health summary score. Physical activity was the least adherent behaviour among the respondents compared to eating healthy food and taking medication regularly as prescribed. Increasing number of older people living alone with co morbidity of disease may be the barriers that influence their attitude and self control toward physical activity. A multidisciplinary and integrated approach including hospital and non hospital care is required to provide appropriate services and facilities toward older people.

Delirium in early-stage Alzheimer's disease : enhancing cognitive reserve as a possible preventive measure

Delirium is a disorder of acute onset with fluctuating symptoms and is characterized by inattention, disorganized thinking, and altered levels of consciousness. The risk for delirium is greatest in individuals with dementia, and the incidence of both is increasing worldwide because of the aging of our population. Although several clinical trials have tested interventions for delirium prevention in individuals without dementia, little is known about the mechanisms for the prevention of delirium in early-stage Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The purpose of this article is to explore ways of preventing delirium and slowing the rate of cognitive decline in early-stage AD by enhancing cognitive reserve. An agenda for future research on interventions to prevent delirium in individuals with early-stage AD is also presented.

Social Participation of Community Dwelling Stroke Survivors [Published Abstract: From the Quality of Care and Outcomes Research in Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke Conference 2009]

Disability following a stroke can impose various restrictions on patients’ attempts at participating in life roles. The measurement of social participation, for instance, is important in estimating recovery and assessing quality of care at the community level. Thus, the identification of factors influencing social participation is essential in developing effective measures for promoting the reintegration of stroke survivors into the community. Data were collected from 188 stroke survivors (mean age 71.7 years) 12 months after discharge from a stroke rehabilitation hospital. Of these survivors, 128 (61 %) had suffered a first ever stroke, and 81 (43 %) had a right hemisphere lesion. Most (n = 156, 83 %) were living in their own home, though 32 (17 %) were living in residential care facilities. Path analysis was used to test a hypothesized model of participation restriction which included the direct and indirect effects between social, psychological and physical outcomes and demographic variables. Participation restriction was the dependent variable. Exogenous independent variables were age, functional ability, living arrangement and gender. Endogenous independent variables were depressive symptoms, state self-esteem and social support satisfaction. The path coefficients showed functional ability having the largest direct effect on participation restriction. The results also showed that more depressive symptoms, low state self-esteem, female gender, older age and living in a residential care facility had a direct effect on participation restriction. The explanatory variables accounted for 71% of the variance in explaining participation restriction. Prediction models have empirical and practical applications such as suggesting important factors to be considered in promoting stroke recovery. The findings suggest that interventions offered over the course of rehabilitation should be aimed at improving functional ability and promoting psychological aspects of recovery. These are likely to enhance stroke survivors resume or maximize their social participation so that they may fulfill productive and positive life roles.

Disease prevention and control

Globally, the main contributors to morbidity and mortality are chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Chronic diseases are costly and partially avoidable, with around sixty percent of deaths and nearly fifty percent of the global disease burden attributable to these conditions. By 2020, chronic illnesses will likely be the leading cause of disability worldwide. Existing health care systems, both national and international, that focus on acute episodic health conditions, cannot address the worldwide transition to chronic illness; nor are they appropriate for the ongoing care and management of those already afflicted with chronic diseases. International and Australian strategic planning documents articulate similar elements to manage chronic disease; including the need for aligning sectoral policies for health, forming partnerships and engaging communities in decision-making. The Australian National Chronic Disease Strategy focuses on four core areas for managing chronic disease; prevention across the continuum, early detection and treatment, integrated and coordinated care, and self-management. Such a comprehensive approach incorporates the entire population continuum, from the ‘healthy’, to those with risk factors, through to people suffering from chronic conditions and their sequelae. This chapter examines comprehensive approach to the prevention, management and care of the population with non-communicable, chronic diseases and communicable diseases. It analyses models of care in the context of need, service delivery options and the potential to prevent or manage early intervention for chronic and communicable diseases. Approaches to chronic diseases require integrated approaches that incorporate interventions targeted at both individuals and populations, and emphasise the shared risk factors of different conditions. Communicable diseases are a common and significant contributor to ill health throughout the world. In many countries, this impact has been minimised by the combined efforts of preventative health measures and improved treatment of infectious diseases. However in underdeveloped nations, communicable diseases continue to contribute significantly to the burden of disease. The aim of this chapter is to outline the impact that chronic and communicable diseases have on the health of the community, the public health strategies that are used to reduce the burden of those diseases and the old and emerging risks to public health from infectious diseases.

The contribution of physical activity and sedentary behaviours to the growth and development of children and adolescents : implications for overweight and obesity

The obesity epidemic is a global trend and is of particular concern in children. Recent reports have highlighted the severity of obesity in children by suggesting: “today's generation of children will be the first for over a century for whom life expectancy falls.” This review assesses the evidence that identifies the important role of physical activity in the growth, development and physical health of young people, owing to its numerous physical and psychological health benefits. Key issues, such as “does a sedentary lifestyle automatically lead to obesity” and “are levels of physical activity in today's children less than physical activity levels in children from previous generations?”, are also discussed. Today's environment enforces an inactive lifestyle that is likely to contribute to a positive energy balance and childhood obesity. Whether a child or adolescent, the evidence is conclusive that physical activity is conducive to a healthy lifestyle and prevention of disease. Habitual physical activity established during the early years may provide the greatest likelihood of impact on mortality and longevity. It is evident that environmental factors need to change if physical activity strategies are to have a significant impact on increasing habitual physical activity levels in children and adolescents. There is also a need for more evidence-based physical activity guidelines for children of all ages. Efforts should be concentrated on facilitating an active lifestyle for children in an attempt to put a stop to the increasing prevalence of obese children

The Validity of the Brief Michigan Alcohol Screening Test (bMAST) as a Problem Drinking Severity Measure

Objective: The Brief Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (bMAST) is a 10-item test derived from the 25-item Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (MAST). It is widely used in the assessment of alcohol dependence. In the absence of previous validation studies, the principal aim of this study was to assess the validity and reliability of the bMAST as a measure of the severity of problem drinking. Method: There were 6,594 patients (4,854 men, 1,740 women) who had been referred for alcohol-use disorders to a hospital alcohol and drug service who voluntarily participated in this study. Results: An exploratory factor analysis defined a two-factor solution, consisting of Perception of Current Drinking and Drinking Consequences factors. Structural equation modeling confirmed that the fit of a nine-item, two-factor model was superior to the original one-factor model. Concurrent validity was assessed through simultaneous administration of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and associations with alcohol consumption and clinically assessed features of alcohol dependence. The two-factor bMAST model showed moderate correlations with the AUDIT. The two-factor bMAST and AUDIT were similarly associated with quantity of alcohol consumption and clinically assessed dependence severity features. No differences were observed between the existing weighted scoring system and the proposed simple scoring system. Conclusions: In this study, both the existing bMAST total score and the two-factor model identified were as effective as the AUDIT in assessing problem drinking severity. There are additional advantages of employing the two-factor bMAST in the assessment and treatment planning of patients seeking treatment for alcohol-use disorders. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs 68: 771-779,2007)

Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Pathogenicity of Plesiomonas shigelloides : interactions with eukaryotic host cells in vitro

Diarrhoea is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in populations in developing countries and is a significant health issue throughout the world. Despite the frequency and the severity of the diarrhoeal disease, mechanisms of pathogenesis for many of the causative agents have been poorly characterised. Although implicated in a number of intestinal and extra-intestinal infections in humans, Plesiomonas shigelloides generally has been dismissed as an enteropathogen due to the lack of clearly demonstrated virulence-associated properties such as production of cytotoxins and enterotoxins or invasive abilities. However, evidence from a number of sources has indicated that this species may be the cause of a number of clinical infections. The work described in this thesis seeks to resolve this discrepancy by investigating the pathogenic potential of P. shigelloides using in vitro cell models. The focus of this research centres on how this organism interacts with human host cells in an experimental model. Very little is known about the pathogenic potential of P. shigel/oides and its mechanisms in human infections and disease. However, disease manifestations mimic those of other related microorganisms. Chapter 2 reviews microbial pathogenesis in general, with an emphasis on understanding the mechanisms resulting from infection with bacterial pathogens and the alterations in host cell biology. In addition, this review analyses the pathogenic status of a poorly-defined enteropathogen, P. shigelloides. Key stages of pathogenicity must occur in order for a bacterial pathogen to cause disease. Such stages include bacterial adherence to host tissue, bacterial entry into host tissues (usually required), multiplication within host tissues, evasion of host defence mechanisms and the causation of damage. In this study, these key strategies in infection and disease were sought to help assess the pathogenic potential of P. shigelloides (Chapter 3). Twelve isolates of P. shigelloides, obtained from clinical cases of gastroenteritis, were used to infect monolayers of human intestinal epithelial cells in vitro. Ultrastructural analysis demonstrated that P. shigelloides was able to adhere to the microvilli at the apical surface of the epithelial cells and also to the plasma membranes of both apical and basal surfaces. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that these isolates were able to enter intestinal epithelial cells. Internalised bacteria often were confined within vacuoles surrounded by single or multiple membranes. Observation of bacteria within membranebound vacuoles suggests that uptake of P. shigelloides into intestinal epithelial cells occurs via a process morphologically comparable to phagocytosis. Bacterial cells also were observed free in the host cell cytoplasm, indicating that P. shige/loides is able to escape from the surrounding vacuolar membrane and exist within the cytosol of the host. Plesiomonas shigelloides has not only been implicated in gastrointestinal infections, but also in a range of non-intestinal infections such as cholecystitis, proctitis, septicaemia and meningitis. The mechanisms by which P. shigelloides causes these infections are not understood. Previous research was unable to ascertain the pathogenic potential of P. shigel/oides using cells of non-intestinal origin (HEp-2 cells derived from a human larynx carcinoma and Hela cells derived from a cervical carcinoma). However, with the recent findings (from this study) that P. shigelloides can adhere to and enter intestinal cells, it was hypothesised, that P. shigel/oides would be able to enter Hela and HEp-2 cells. Six clinical isolates of P. shigelloides, which previously have been shown to be invasive to intestinally derived Caco-2 cells (Chapter 3) were used to study interactions with Hela and HEp-2 cells (Chapter 4). These isolates were shown to adhere to and enter both nonintestinal host cell lines. Plesiomonas shigelloides were observed within vacuoles surrounded by single and multiple membranes, as well as free in the host cell cytosol, similar to infection by P. shigelloides of Caco-2 cells. Comparisons of the number of bacteria adhered to and present intracellularly within Hela, HEp-2 and Caco-2 cells revealed a preference of P. shigelloides for Caco-2 cells. This study conclusively showed for the first time that P. shigelloides is able to enter HEp-2 and Hela cells, demonstrating the potential ability to cause an infection and/or disease of extra-intestinal sites in humans. Further high resolution ultrastructural analysis of the mechanisms involved in P. shigelloides adherence to intestinal epithelial cells (Chapter 5) revealed numerous prominent surface features which appeared to be involved in the binding of P. shige/loides to host cells. These surface structures varied in morphology from small bumps across the bacterial cell surface to much longer filaments. Evidence that flagella might play a role in bacterial adherence also was found. The hypothesis that filamentous appendages are morphologically expressed when in contact with host cells also was tested. Observations of bacteria free in the host cell cytosol suggests that P. shigelloides is able to lyse free from the initial vacuolar compartment. The vacuoles containing P. shigel/oides within host cells have not been characterised and the point at which P. shigelloides escapes from the surrounding vacuolar compartment has not been determined. A cytochemical detection assay for acid phosphatase, an enzymatic marker for lysosomes, was used to analyse the co-localisation of bacteria-containing vacuoles and acid phosphatase activity (Chapter 6). Acid phosphatase activity was not detected in these bacteria-containing vacuoles. However, the surface of many intracellular and extracellular bacteria demonstrated high levels of acid phosphatase activity, leading to the proposal of a new virulence factor for P. shigelloides. For many pathogens, the efficiency with which they adhere to and enter host cells is dependant upon the bacterial phase of growth. Such dependency reflects the timing of expression of particular virulence factors important for bacterial pathogenesis. In previous studies (Chapter 3 to Chapter 6), an overnight culture of P. shigelloides was used to investigate a number of interactions, however, it was unknown whether this allowed expression of bacterial factors to permit efficient P. shigelloides attachment and entry into human cells. In this study (Chapter 7), a number of clinical and environmental P. shigelloides isolates were investigated to determine whether adherence and entry into host cells in vitro was more efficient during exponential-phase or stationary-phase bacterial growth. An increase in the number of adherent and intracellular bacteria was demonstrated when bacteria were inoculated into host cell cultures in exponential phase cultures. This was demonstrated clearly for 3 out of 4 isolates examined. In addition, an increase in the morphological expression of filamentous appendages, a suggested virulence factor for P. shigel/oides, was observed for bacteria in exponential growth phase. These observations suggest that virulence determinants for P. shigel/oides may be more efficiently expressed when bacteria are in exponential growth phase. This study demonstrated also, for the first time, that environmental water isolates of P. shigelloides were able to adhere to and enter human intestinal cells in vitro. These isolates were seen to enter Caco-2 host cells through a process comparable to the clinical isolates examined. These findings support the hypothesis of a water transmission route for P. shigelloides infections. The results presented in this thesis contribute significantly to our understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms involved in P. shigelloides infections and disease. Several of the factors involved in P. shigelloides pathogenesis have homologues in other pathogens of the human intestine, namely Vibrio, Aeromonas, Salmonella, Shigella species and diarrhoeaassociated strains of Escherichia coli. This study emphasises the relevance of research into Plesiomonas as a means of furthering our understanding of bacterial virulence in general. As well it provides tantalising clues on normal and pathogenic host cell mechanisms.