399 resultados para Default probability


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In recent decades, concepts and ideas from James J. Gibson’s theory of direct perception in ecological psychology have been applied to the study of how perception and action regulate sport performance. This article examines the influence of different streams of thought in ecological psychology for studying cognition and action in the diverse behavioural contexts of sport and exercise. In discussing the origins of ecological psychology it can be concluded that psychologists such as Lewin, and to some extent Heider, provided the initial impetus for the development of key ideas. We argue that the papers in this special issue clarify that the different schools of thinking in ecological psychology have much to contribute to theoretical and practical developments in sport and exercise psychology. For example, Gibson emphasized and formalized how the individual is coupled with the environment; Brunswik raised the issue of the ontology of probability in human behaviour and the problem of representative design for experimental task constraints; Barker looked carefully into extra-individual behavioural contexts and Bronfenbrenner presented insights pertinent to the relations between behaviour contexts, and macro influences on behaviour. In this overview, we highlight essential issues from the main schools of thought of relevance to the contexts of sport and exercise, and we consider some potential theoretical linkages with dynamical systems theory.

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In this article we examine how a consumer's susceptibility to informative influence (SII) affects the effectiveness of consumer testimonials in print advertising. More specifically, we show that consumers that are high in SII and that seek consumption-relevant information from other people are more influenced by the strength of the testimonial information than the strength of the attribute information. Conversely, consumers low in SII place greater emphasis on the strength of the attribute information when forming their evaluations. Our results show that consumer psychological traits can have an important impact on the acceptance of testimonial advertising. Theoretical and managerial implications of our findings are discussed.

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In this article we examine how consumer knowledge and two aspects of email ad design (copy type and testimonial type) influence attitudes and purchase intentions. Results from a field experiment reveal differences between experts and novices in their responses to email advertising. Specifically, experts report more favorable evaluations for email advertising than novices. Experts also demonstrate a preference for expert testimonials, when exposed to attribute copy. Yet when benefits-only ad copy was used, experts are most influenced by novice testimonials. In contrast, novice consumers show no copy-testimonial preference. Expert testimonials are also more effective than novice testimonials for expert and novice consumers. We discuss the results with respect to theoretical contributions and managerial implications.

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This paper is a beginning point for discussing what the literature states about parents’ involvement in their children’s mathematics education. Where possible it will focus on Torres Strait Islander Peoples. Little is known about how Torres Strait Islander parents approach their children’s learning of mathematics and how important early mathematics is to mothers. What is known is that is they are keen for their children to receive an education that provides them with opportunities for their present and future lives. However, gaining access to education is challenging given that the language of instruction in schools is written to English conventions, decontextualised and disconnected from the students’ culture, community and home language. This paper discusses some of the issues raised in the literature about what parents are confronted with when making decisions about their children’s education.

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Traditionally, the aquisition of skills and sport movement has been characterised by numerous repetitions of presumed model movement pattern to be acquired by learners. This approach has been questioned by research identifying the presence of individualised movement patterns and the low probability of occurrence of two identical movements within and between individuals. In contrast, the differential learning approach claims advantage for incurring variability in the learning process by adding stochastic perturbations during practice. These ideas are exemplified by data from a high jump experiment which compared the effectiveness of classical and a differential training approach with pre-post test design. Results showed clear advantages for the group with additional stochastic perturbation during the aquisition phase in comparison to classically trained athletes. Analogies to similar phenomenological effects in the neurobiological literature are discussed.

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To navigate successfully in a previously unexplored environment, a mobile robot must be able to estimate the spatial relationships of the objects of interest accurately. A Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) sys- tem employs its sensors to build incrementally a map of its surroundings and to localize itself in the map simultaneously. The aim of this research project is to develop a SLAM system suitable for self propelled household lawnmowers. The proposed bearing-only SLAM system requires only an omnidirec- tional camera and some inexpensive landmarks. The main advantage of an omnidirectional camera is the panoramic view of all the landmarks in the scene. Placing landmarks in a lawn field to define the working domain is much easier and more flexible than installing the perimeter wire required by existing autonomous lawnmowers. The common approach of existing bearing-only SLAM methods relies on a motion model for predicting the robot’s pose and a sensor model for updating the pose. In the motion model, the error on the estimates of object positions is cumulated due mainly to the wheel slippage. Quantifying accu- rately the uncertainty of object positions is a fundamental requirement. In bearing-only SLAM, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of landmark position should be uniform along the observed bearing. Existing methods that approximate the PDF with a Gaussian estimation do not satisfy this uniformity requirement. This thesis introduces both geometric and proba- bilistic methods to address the above problems. The main novel contribu- tions of this thesis are: 1. A bearing-only SLAM method not requiring odometry. The proposed method relies solely on the sensor model (landmark bearings only) without relying on the motion model (odometry). The uncertainty of the estimated landmark positions depends on the vision error only, instead of the combination of both odometry and vision errors. 2. The transformation of the spatial uncertainty of objects. This thesis introduces a novel method for translating the spatial un- certainty of objects estimated from a moving frame attached to the robot into the global frame attached to the static landmarks in the environment. 3. The characterization of an improved PDF for representing landmark position in bearing-only SLAM. The proposed PDF is expressed in polar coordinates, and the marginal probability on range is constrained to be uniform. Compared to the PDF estimated from a mixture of Gaussians, the PDF developed here has far fewer parameters and can be easily adopted in a probabilistic framework, such as a particle filtering system. The main advantages of our proposed bearing-only SLAM system are its lower production cost and flexibility of use. The proposed system can be adopted in other domestic robots as well, such as vacuum cleaners or robotic toys when terrain is essentially 2D.

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This paper is a beginning point for discussing what the literature states about parents’ involvement in their children’s mathematics education. Where possible it will focus on Torres Strait Islander Peoples. Little is known about how Torres Strait Islander parents approach their children’s learning of mathematics and how important early mathematics is to mothers. What is known is that is they are keen for their children to receive an education that provides them with opportunities for their present and future lives. However, gaining access to education is challenging given that the language of instruction in schools is written to English conventions, decontextualised and disconnected from the students’ culture, community and home language. This paper discusses some of the issues raised in the literature about what parents are confronted with when making decisions about their children’s education.

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A shortage of affordable housing is a major problem in Australia today. This is mainly due to the limited supply of affordable housing that is provided by the non-government housing sector. Some private housing developers see the provision of affordable housing for lower income people as a high risk investment which offers a lower return than broader market-based housing. The scarcity of suitable land, a limited government ‘subsidy’, and increasing housing costs have not provided sufficient development incentives to encourage their investment despite the existing high demand for affordable housing. This study analyses the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit housing providers in South East Queensland, and draws conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences. In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment/response in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. These developers use an informal risk management process as part of their normal business process in accordance with industry standards. A simple qualitative matrix has been used to analyse probability and impacts using a qualitative scale - low, medium and high. For housing providers who have considered investing in affordable housing but have not yet implemented any such projects, affordable housing development is seen as an opportunity that needs to be approached with caution. The risks associated with such projects and the levels of acceptance of these are not consistently identified by current housing providers. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. This study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.

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Rather than understanding the recurrent failure of various attempts at crime control as unfortunate and undesirable aberrations, all too familiar glitches an otherwise uninterrupted teleological march to a better society, such failures are instead positioned as part of the fabric of late modernity itself. That is, society changes not according to a predetermined logic along neatly defined and clearly reasoned tracks, rather it hurtles from crisis to crisis, from failure to failure, and it is the regulation of that failure which produces new initiatives and new forms of governance. Utilising the example of the modern prison, this chapter contends that too great an emphasis upon this institution’s ‘failure’ results not only in a neglect of the many other functions that it serves in the regulation of difference, but also, and more generally, it results in an underestimation of the importance of failure in providing new impetus for social transformation.

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Severe flooding throughout England in Autumn 1998 and 2000, has seen an increase in the extent of flood liable residential areas throughout England, as well as an increase in the actual levels of flood damage in all previously recognised flood prone residential areas. The increasing cost of rectifying the damage caused to residential properties from flooding has been of some concern to the residential property valuation profession and sales and leasing agency practices. However, the increasing trend in the frequency of flooding in England, combined with an increase in severity of flooding is now causing some degree of concern in the residential insurance and housing finance sectors. In order to determine and quantify the impact of flooding and flood damage on the residential property market in England, a survey of Chartered Surveyors and Chartered Real Estate Valuers has been carried out across the main flood affected counties of England. This survey will provide similar details to the research completed by Eves (1999, 2001) and Fibbens (1993) in relation to residential property flooding in Australia. This survey provides comprehensive responses in relation to the degree of flood affectation across counties, the effect of flooding on residential property values, the impact of flooding on building insurance premiums and possible difficulties in obtaining finance to purchase residential property in recognised flood areas.

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Query reformulation is a key user behavior during Web search. Our research goal is to develop predictive models of query reformulation during Web searching. This article reports results from a study in which we automatically classified the query-reformulation patterns for 964,780 Web searching sessions, composed of 1,523,072 queries, to predict the next query reformulation. We employed an n-gram modeling approach to describe the probability of users transitioning from one query-reformulation state to another to predict their next state. We developed first-, second-, third-, and fourth-order models and evaluated each model for accuracy of prediction, coverage of the dataset, and complexity of the possible pattern set. The results show that Reformulation and Assistance account for approximately 45% of all query reformulations; furthermore, the results demonstrate that the first- and second-order models provide the best predictability, between 28 and 40% overall and higher than 70% for some patterns. Implications are that the n-gram approach can be used for improving searching systems and searching assistance.