The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Recent innovations in cold-formed tubular sections

Cold-formed tubular sections are widely used in many modern steel structures. Two innovative cold-formed sections have been introduced to the Australian building industry. They are the 'in-line' galvanized rectangular hollow section (RHS) tubes and the hollow flange beams (HFB). They offer significant advantages but at the same time provide challenges to designers because of their special characteristics. The application, manufacturing, advantages and characteristics of these two sections are described.

Diffusion of extreme weather-proofing technology in the built environment

This study addresses the research question: ‘What are the diffusion determinants for extreme weather-proofing technology in the Australian built environment?’ In order to effectively identify diffusion determinants, a synthesis of literature in both technical and management fields was conducted from a system-wide perspective. Review results where then interpreted through an innovation system framework, drawn from innovation systems literature, in order to map the current state of extreme weather-proofing technology diffusion in the Australian built environment industry. Drivers and obstacles to optimal diffusion are presented. Results show the important role to be played by Australian governments in facilitating improved weather proofing technology diffusion. This applies to governments in their various roles, but particularly as regulators, clients/owners and investors in research & development and education. In the role as regulators, findings suggest Australian governments should be encouraging the application of innovative finance options and positive end-user incentives to promote the uptake of weather proofing technology. Additionally, in their role as clients/owners, diffusion can be improved by adjusting building and infrastructure specifications to encourage designers and constructors to incorporate extreme weather proofing technology in new and redeveloped built assets. Finally, results suggest greater investment is required in research and development and improved knowledge sharing across the construction supply chain to further mitigate risks associated with greater incidences of extreme weather events.

Visibility-related characteristics of crashes involving bicyclists and motor vehicles – Responses from an online questionnaire study

Bicyclists are among the most vulnerable of road users, with high fatal crash rates. Although visibility aids have been widely advocated to help prevent bicycle-vehicle conflicts, to date no study has investigated, among crash-involved cyclists, the kind of visibility aids they were using at the time of the crash. This study undertook a detailed investigation of visibility factors involved in bicyclist-motor-vehicle crashes. We surveyed 184 bicyclists (predominantly from Australia via internet cycling forums) who had been involved in motor vehicle collisions regarding the perceived cause of the collision, ambient weather and general visibility, as well as the clothing and bicycle lights used by the bicyclist. Over a third of the crashes occurred in low light levels (dawn, dusk or night-time), which is disproportionate given that only a small proportion of bicyclists typically ride at these times. Importantly, 19% of these bicyclists reported not using bicycle lights at the time of the crash, and only 34% were wearing reflective clothing. Only two participants (of 184) nominated bicyclist visibility as the cause of the crash: 61% attributed the crash to driver inattention. These findings demonstrate that crash-involved bicyclists tend to under-rate and under-utilise visibility aids as a means of improving their safety.

Tissue viability imaging of skin microcirculation following exposure to whole body cryotherapy (-110°C) and cold water immersion (8°C)

Cryotherapy is currently used in various clinical, rehabilitative, and sporting settings. However, very little is known regarding the impact of cooling on the microcirculatory response. Objectives: The present study sought to examine the influence of two commonly employed modalities of cryotherapy, whole body cryotherapy (WBC; -110°C) and cold water immersion(CWI; 8±1°C), on skin microcirculation in the mid- thigh region. Methods: The skin area examined was a 3 × 3 cm located between the most anterior aspect of the inguinal fold and the patella. Following 10 minutes of rest, 5 healthy, active males were exposed to either WBC for 3 minutes or CWI for 5 minutes in a randomised order. Volunteers lay supine for five minutes after treatment, in order to monitor the variation of red blood cell (RBC) concentration in the region of interest for a duration of 40 minutes. Microcirculation response was assessed using a non-invasive, portable instrument known as a Tissue Viability imaging system. After a minimum of seven days, the protocol was repeated. Subjective assessment of the volunteer’s thermal comfort and thermal sensation was also recorded. Results: RBC was altered following exposure to both WBC and CWI but appeared to stabilise approximately 35 minutes after treatments. Both WBC and CWI affected thermal sensation (p < 0.05); however no betweengroup differences in thermal comfort or sensation were recorded (p > 0.05). Conclusions: As both WBC and CWI altered RBC, further study is necessary to examine the mechanism for this alteration during whole body cooling.

A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

Imported Dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous Dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia

BACKGROUND Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-2.28), monthly minimum temperature ((o)C) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

Physiological tolerance times while wearing explosive ordnance disposal protective clothing in simulated environmental extremes

Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) technicians are required to wear protective clothing to protect themselves from the threat of overpressure, fragmentation, impact and heat. The engineering requirements to minimise these threats results in an extremely heavy and cumbersome clothing ensemble that increases the internal heat generation of the wearer, while the clothing���s thermal properties reduce heat dissipation. This study aimed to evaluate the heat strain encountered wearing EOD protective clothing in simulated environmental extremes across a range of differing work intensities. Eight healthy males [age 25±6 years (mean ± sd), height 180±7 cm, body mass 79±9 kg, V˙O2max 57±6 ml.kg−1.min−1] undertook nine trials while wearing an EOD9 suit (weighing 33.4 kg). The trials involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km⋅h−1 at each of the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37°C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) in a randomised controlled crossover design. The trials were ceased if the participants’ core temperature reached 39°C, if heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, if walking time reached 60 minutes or due to fatigue/nausea. Tolerance times ranged from 10–60 minutes and were significantly reduced in the higher walking speeds and environmental conditions. In a total of 15 trials (21%) participants completed 60 minutes of walking; however, this was predominantly at the slower walking speeds in the 21°C WBGT environment. Of the remaining 57 trials, 50 were ceased, due to attainment of 90% maximal heart rate. These near maximal heart rates resulted in moderate-high levels of physiological strain in all trials, despite core temperature only reaching 39°C in one of the 72 trials.

Psychosocial and communication variables involved in mediating the individual experience of older adults following a severe weather event

The recent floods in south-east Queensland have focused policy, academic and community attention on the challenges associated with severe weather events (SWE), specifically pre-disaster preparation, disaster-response and post-disaster community resilience. Financially, the cost of SWE was $9 billion in the 2011 Australian Federal Budget (Swan 2011); psychologically and emotionally, the impact on individual mental health and community wellbeing is also significant but more difficult to quantify. However, recent estimates suggest that as many as one in five will subsequently experience major emotional distress (Bonanno et al. 2010). With climate change predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of a wide range of SWE in Australia (Garnaut 2011; The Climate Institute 2011), there is an urgent and critical need to ensure that the unique psychological and social needs of more vulnerable community members - such as older residents - are better understood and integrated into disaster preparedness and response policy, planning and protocols. Navigating the complex dynamics of SWE can be particularly challenging for older adults and their disaster experience is frequently magnified by a wide array of cumulative and interactive stressors, which intertwine to make them uniquely vulnerable to significant short and long-term adverse effects. This current article provides a brief introduction to the current literature in this area and highlights a gap in the research relating to communication tools during and after severe weather events.

Fire performance of cold-formed steel wall panels and prediction of their fire resistance rating

Recent research at the Queensland University of Technology has investigated the structural and thermal behaviour of load bearing Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) wall systems made of 1.15 mm G500 steel studs and varying plasterboard and insulation configurations (cavity and external insulation) using full scale fire tests. Suitable finite element models of LSF walls were then developed and validated by comparing with test results. In this study, the validated finite element models of LSF wall panels subject to standard fire conditions were used in a detailed parametric study to investigate the effects of important parameters such as steel grade and thickness, plasterboard screw spacing, plasterboard lateral restraint, insulation materials and load ratio on their performance under standard fire conditions. Suitable equations were proposed to predict the time–temperature profiles of LSF wall studs with eight different plasterboard-insulation configurations, and used in the finite element analyses. Finite element parametric studies produced extensive fire performance data for the LSF wall panels in the form of load ratio versus time and critical hot flange (failure) temperature curves for eight wall configurations. This data demonstrated the superior fire performance of externally insulated LSF wall panels made of different steel grades and thicknesses. It also led to the development of a set of equations to predict the important relationship between the load ratio and the critical hot flange temperature of LSF wall studs. Finally this paper proposes a simplified method to predict the fire resistance rating of LSF walls based on the two proposed set of equations for the load ratio–hot flange temperature and the time–temperature relationships.

A rapid assessment of the effects of extreme weather on two Great Barrier Reef industries

In coastal areas, extreme weather events, such as floods and cyclones, can have debilitating effects on the social and economic viability of marine-based industries. In March 2011, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority implemented an Extreme Weather Response Program, following a period of intense flooding and cyclonic activity between December 2010 and February 2011. In this paper, we discuss the results of a project within the Program, which aimed to: (1) assess the impacts of extreme weather events on regional tourism and commercial fishing industries; and (2) develop and road-test an impact assessment matrix to improve government and industry responses to extreme weather events. Results revealed that extreme weather events both directly and indirectly affected all five of the measured categories, i.e. ecological, personal, social, infrastructure and economic components. The severity of these impacts, combined with their location and the nature of their business, influenced how tourism operators and fishers assessed the impact of the events (low, medium, high or extreme). The impact assessment tool was revised following feedback obtained during stakeholder workshops and may prove useful for managers in responding to potential direct and indirect impacts of future extreme weather events on affected marine industries. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

Silk purse, sow’s ear : transforming second-Hand clothing into luxury fashion through craft practice

There is more apparel being created than ever before in history. The unsustainable production of materials and the clothing and textile waste that contributes annually to landfill, an estimated 500 000 tonnes of clothing per year in the UK (Gray, 2012) are significant issues inspiring the practice of Australian fashion designers, Carla van Lunn and Carla Binotto. While the contemporary fashion industry is built upon a production and consumption model that is younger than the industrial revolution, the traditions of costume, craft, and bodily adornment are ancient practices. Binotto and van Lunn believe that the potential for sustainable fashion practice lies outside the current industrial manufacturing model. This case study will discuss their fashion label, Maison Briz Vegas, and examine how recycling and traditional craft practices can be used to address the problem of clothing waste and offer an alternative idea of value in fashion and materials, addressing the indicative conference theme, Craft as Sustainability Activism in Practice. “Maison Briz Vegas”, a play on the notion of French luxury and the designers’ new world and sub-tropical home town, Brisbane, is an experimental and craft-based fashion label that uses second-hand cotton T-shirts and wool sweaters as primary materials to create designer fashion. The first collection, titled “The Wasteland”, was conceived and created in Paris in 2011, where designer Carla van Lunn had been living and working for several years. The collection was inspired by the precariousness of the global economy and concerns about climate change. The mountains of discarded clothing found at flea markets provided a textile resource from which van Lunn created a recycled hand-crafted fashion collection with an activist message and was shown to buyers and press during Paris Fashion Week. The label has since become a collaboration with fellow Australian designer Carla Binotto. The craft processes employed in Maison Briz Vegas’ up-cycled fashion collections include original hand block-printing, hand embroidery, quilting and patchwork. Taking an artisanal and slow approach, the designers work to create a hand touched imperfect style in a fashion market flooded with digital printing and fast mass-produced garments. The recycling extends to garment fastenings and embellishments, with discarded jar lids and bottle tops being used as buttons and within embroidery. This process transforms the material and aesthetic value of cheap and generic second-hand clothing and household waste. Maison Briz Vegas demonstrates the potential for craft and design to be an interface for environmental activism within the world of fashion. Presenting garments that are both high-design and thoughtfully recycled in a significant fashion context, such as Paris Fashion Week, Maison Briz Vegas has been able to engage a high-profile luxury fashion audience which has not traditionally considered sustainable or eco practices as relevant or desirable in themselves. The designers are studying how to apply their production model on a greater scale in order to fill commercial orders and reach a wider audience whilst maintaining the element of bespoke, limited edition, and slow hand-craft within their work.