A data mining driven risk profiling method for road asset management

Road surface skid resistance has been shown to have a strong relationship to road crash risk, however, applying the current method of using investigatory levels to identify crash prone roads is problematic as they may fail in identifying risky roads outside of the norm. The proposed method analyses a complex and formerly impenetrable volume of data from roads and crashes using data mining. This method rapidly identifies roads with elevated crash-rate, potentially due to skid resistance deficit, for investigation. A hypothetical skid resistance/crash risk curve is developed for each road segment, driven by the model deployed in a novel regression tree extrapolation method. The method potentially solves the problem of missing skid resistance values which occurs during network-wide crash analysis, and allows risk assessment of the major proportion of roads without skid resistance values.

Something’s coming, something good: Identifying TPACK competence in pre-service teachers’ analyses of learning objects

There is a song at the beginning of the musical, West Side Story, where the character Tony sings that “something’s coming, something good.” The song is an anthem of optimism, brimming with promise. This paper is about the long-held promise of information and communication technology (ICT) to transform teaching and learning, to modernise the learning environment of the classroom, and to create a new digital pedagogy. But much of our experience to date in the schooling sector tells more of resistance and reaction than revolution, of more of the same but with a computer in the corner and of ICT activities as unwelcome time-fillers/time-wasters. Recently, a group of pre-service teachers in a postgraduate primary education degree in an Australian university were introduced to learning objects in an ICT immersion program. Their analyses and related responses, as recorded in online journals, have here been interpreted in terms of TPACK (Technological Pedagogical and Content Knowledge). Against contemporary observation, these students generally displayed high levels of competence and highly positive dispositions of students to the integration of ICT in their future classrooms. In short, they displayed the same optimism and confidence as the fictional “Tony” in believing that something good was coming.

Understanding worker perceptions of common incidents at roadworks in Queensland

The process of building safer roads and roadsides needs to be managed to minimise risks to both the road using public and roadworkers. However, detailed and accurate data on fatalities and injuries at roadworks across Australia are not available. The lack of reliable safety records and consequent poor understanding of the hazards at roadworks motivated this research to examine the common trends in incidents and to understand workers' perceptions of the causes of incidents at roadworks. To achieve these aims, 66 roadworks personnel were interviewed in Queensland including road construction workers, traffic controllers, engineers, and managers. Qualitative analyses identified several major issues and themes. Vehicles driving into work areas, traffic controllers hit by vehicles, rear end crashes at roadwork approaches, and reversing incidents involving work vehicles and machinery were the most common types of incidents. Roadworkers perceived driver errors, such as violation of speed limits, distracted driving, and ignoring signage and traffic controllers' instructions as the main causes of the incidents.

Driver perceptions of the benefits of reducing their driving speed on safety, emissions, and stress and road rage

The existing literature shows driving speed significantly affects levels of safety, emissions, and stress in driving. In addition, drivers who feel tense when driving have been found to drive more slowly than others. These findings were mostly obtained from crash data analyses or field studies, and less is known regarding driver perceptions of the extent to which reducing their driving speed would improve road safety, reduce their car’s emissions, and reduce stress and road rage. This paper uses ordered probit regression models to analyse responses from 3538 Queensland drivers who completed an online RACQ survey. Drivers most strongly agreed that reducing their driving speed would improve road safety, less strongly agreed that reducing their driving speed would reduce their car’s emissions and least strongly agreed that reducing their driving speed would reduce stress and road rage. Younger drivers less strongly agreed that these benefits would occur than older drivers. Drivers of automatic cars and those who are bicycle commuters agreed more to these benefits than other drivers. Female drivers agreed more strongly than males on improving safety and reducing stress and road rage. Type of fuel used, engine size, driving experience, and distance driven per week were also found to be associated with driver perceptions, although these were not found to be significant in all of the regression models. The findings from this study may help in developing targeted training or educational measures to improve drivers’ willingness to reduce their driving speed.

Migraine association and linkage analyses of the human 5-hydroxytryptamine (5HT2A) receptor gene

5-Hydroxytryptamine (5HT), commonly known as serotonin, which predominantly serves as an inhibitory neurotransmitter in the brain, has long been implicated in migraine pathophysiology. This study tested an Mspl polymorphism in the human 5HT2A receptor gene (HTR2A) and a closely linked microsatellite marker (D13S126), for linkage and association with common migraine. In the association analyses, no significant differences were found between the migraine and control populations for both the Mspl polymorphism and the D13S126 microsatellite marker. The linkage studies involving three families comprising 36 affected members were analysed using both parametric (FASTLINK) and non-parametric (MFLINK and APM) techniques. Significant close linkage was indicated between the Mspl polymorphism and the D13S126 microsatellite marker at a recombination fraction (θ) of zero (lod score=7.15). Linkage results for the Mspl polymorphism were not very informative in the three families, producing maximum and minimum lod scores of only 0.35 and 0.39 at recombination fractions (θ) of 0.2 and 0.00, respectively. However, linkage analysis between the D13S126 marker and migraine indicated significant non-linkage (lod2) up to a recombination fraction (θ) of 0.028. Results from this study exclude the HTR2A gene, which has been localized to chromosome 13q14-q21, for involvement with common migraine.

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics : time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.

Molecular genetic analyses of RFLPs for PCR-amplified growth hormone gene, renal kallikrein gene and atrial natriuretic factor gene in essential hypertension

The present study examined polymorphisms of genes that might be involved in the onset of essential hypertension (HT). These included the (i) growth hormone gene (GH1), whose locus has recently been linked to elevated blood pressure (BP) in the stroke-prone SHR, although recent sib-pair analysis of a polymorphism near the human chorionic somatomammotropin gene (a member of the GH cluster) was unable to show linkage with HT; (ii) renal kallikrein gene (KLK1); and (iii) atrial natriuretic factor gene (ANF), where a primary defect in production or activity of kallikrein or ANF could cause NaCl retention and vasoconstriction. Association analyses were conducted to compare restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) of each gene in 85 HT and 95 normotensive (NT) Caucasian subjects whose parents had a similar BP status at age ≥50 years. The frequency of the minor allele of (i) a RsaI RFLP in the promoter of GH1, amplified from leukocyte DNA by the polymerase chain reaction, was 0.15 in the HT group and 0.14 in the NT group (χ1=0.34, P=0.55); (ii) a TaqI RFLP for KLK1 was 0.035 in the HT group and 0.015 in the NT group (χ2=1.5, P=0.21); and (iii) a XhoI RFLP for ANF was 0.50 in HTs and 0.46 in NTs (χ2=0.20, P=0.65). Studies of HT pedigrees found one family in which the ANF locus and HT were not linked, owing to an obligate recombinant. The present data thus provide no evidence for involvement of the growth hormone, renal kallikrein, nor ANF gene in the causation of essential hypertension.

Association and linkage analyses of restriction fragment length polymorphisms for the human renin and antithrombin III genes in essential hypertension

Essential hypertension is a highly hereditable disorder in which genetic influences predominate over environmental factors. The molecular genetic profiles which predispose to essential hypertension are not known. In rats with genetic hypertension, there is some recent evidence pointing to linkage of renin gene alleles with blood pressure. The genes for renin and antithrombin III belong to a conserved synteny group which, in humans, spans the q21.3-32.3 region of chromosome I and, in rats, is linkage group X on chromosome 13. The present study examined the association of particular human renin gene (REN) and antithrombin III gene (AT3) polymorphisms with essential hypertension by comparing the frequency of specific alleles for each of these genes in 50 hypertensive offspring of hypertensive parents and 91 normotensive offspring of normotensive parents. In addition, linkage relationships were examined in hypertensive pedigrees with multiple affected individuals. Alleles of a REN HindIII restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) were detected using a genomic clone, λHR5, to probe Southern blots of HindIII-cut leucocyte DNA, and those for an AT3 Pstl RFLP were detected by phATIII 113 complementary DNA probe. The frequencies of each REN allele in the hypertensive group were 0.76 and 0.24 compared with 0.74 and 0.26 in the normotensive group. For AT3, hypertensive allele frequencies were 0.49 and 0.51 compared with normotensive values of 0.54 and 0.46. These differences were not significant by χ2 analysis (P > 0.2). Linkage analysis of a family (data from 16 family members, 10 of whom were hypertensive), informative for both markers, without an age-of-onset correction, and assuming dominant inheritance of hypertension, complete penetrance and a disease frequency of 20%, did not indicate linkage of REN with hypertension, but gave a positive, although not significant, logarithm of the odds for linkage score of 0.784 at a recombination fraction of 0 for AT3 linkage to hypertension. In conclusion, the present study could find no evidence for an association of a REN HindIII RFLP with essential hypertension or for a linkage of the locus defined by this RFLP in a family segregating for hypertension. In the case of an AT3 Pstl RFLP, although association analysis was negative, linkage analysis suggested possible involvement (odds of 6:1 in favour) of a gene located near the 1q23 locus with hypertension in one informative family.

Pre-crash traffic flow trend analysis on motorways

Crashes on motorway contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence reduce crashes will help address congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a Short time window around the time of crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists, and that this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with traffic flow data of one hour prior to the crash using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic flow trends (traffic speed/occupancy time series) revealed that crashes could be clustered with regards of the dominant traffic flow pattern prior to the crash. Using the k-means clustering method allowed the crashes to be clustered based on their flow trends rather than their distance. Four major trends have been found in the clustering results. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation algorithms can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic flow conditions with a sliding window of 60 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

Pre-crash and non-crash traffic flow trends analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestions. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assists in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Crash likelihood estimation studies commonly focus on traffic conditions in a short time window around the time of a crash while longer-term pre-crash traffic flow trends are neglected. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques that a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways exists. We will compare them with normal traffic trends and show this knowledge has the potential to improve the accuracy of existing models and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding to traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash. Using the K-Means clustering method with Euclidean distance function allowed the crashes to be clustered. Then, normal situation data was extracted based on the time distribution of crashes and were clustered to compare with the “high risk” clusters. Five major trends have been found in the clustering results for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned based on the monitored traffic conditions with a sliding window of 30 minutes to increase accuracy of the results and minimize false alarms.

The consistency of crash involvement recall across time

Introduction Road safety researchers rely heavily on self-report data to explore the aetiology of crash risk. However, researchers consistently acknowledge a range of limitations associated with this methodological approach (e.g., self-report bias), which has been hypothesised to reduce the predictive efficacy of scales. Although well researched in other areas, one important factor often neglected in road safety studies is the fallibility of human memory. Given accurate recall is a key assumption in many studies, the validity and consistency of self-report data warrants investigation. The aim of the current study was to examine the consistency of self-report data of crash history and details of the most recent reported crash on two separate occasions. Materials & Method A repeated measures design was utilised to examine the self-reported crash involvement history of 214 general motorists over a two month period. Results A number of interesting discrepancies were noted in relation to number of lifetime crashes reported by the participants and the descriptions of their most recent crash across the two occasions. Of the 214 participants who reported having been involved in a crash, 35 (22.3%) reported a lower number of lifetime crashes as Time 2, than at Time 1. Of the 88 drivers who reported no change in number of lifetime crashes, 10 (11.4%) described a different most recent crash. Additionally, of the 34 reporting an increase in the number of lifetime crashes, 29 (85.3%) of these described the same crash on both occasions. Assessed as a whole, at least 47.1% of participants made a confirmed mistake at Time 1 or Time 2. Conclusions These results raise some doubt in regard to the accuracy of memory recall across time. Given that self-reported crash involvement is the predominant dependent variable used in the majority of road safety research, this issue warrants further investigation. Replication of the study with a larger sample size that includes multiple recall periods would enhance understanding into the significance of this issue for road safety methodology.

Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia : Examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates

In this paper we explore the relationship between monthly random breath testing (RBT) rates (per 1000 licensed drivers) and alcohol-related traffic crash (ARTC) rates over time, across two Australian states: Queensland and Western Australia. We analyse the RBT, ARTC and licensed driver rates across 12 years; however, due to administrative restrictions, we model ARTC rates against RBT rates for the period July 2004 to June 2009. The Queensland data reveals that the monthly ARTC rate is almost flat over the five year period. Based on the results of the analysis, an average of 5.5 ARTCs per 100,000 licensed drivers are observed across the study period. For the same period, the monthly rate of RBTs per 1000 licensed drivers is observed to be decreasing across the study with the results of the analysis revealing no significant variations in the data. The comparison between Western Australia and Queensland shows that Queensland's ARTC monthly percent change (MPC) is 0.014 compared to the MPC of 0.47 for Western Australia. While Queensland maintains a relatively flat ARTC rate, the ARTC rate in Western Australia is increasing. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between ARTC RBT rates, that for every 10% increase in the percentage of RBTs to licensed driver there is a 0.15 decrease in the rate of ARTCs per 100,000 licenced drivers. Moreover, in Western Australia, if the 2011 ratio of 1:2 (RBTs to annual number of licensed drivers) were to double to a ratio of 1:1, we estimate the number of monthly ARTCs would reduce by approximately 15. Based on these findings we believe that as the number of RBTs conducted increases the number of drivers willing to risk being detected for drinking driving decreases, because the perceived risk of being detected is considered greater. This is turn results in the number of ARTCs diminishing. The results of this study provide an important evidence base for policy decisions for RBT operations.

Identifying the determinants of concealed and obvious texting while driving : are they distinct behaviours?

Concealed texting (CT) while driving involves a conscious effort to hide one’s texting while obvious texting (OT) does not involve such efforts to conceal the behaviour. Young drivers are the most frequent users of mobile phones while driving which is associated with heightened crash risk. This study investigated the extent to which CT and OT may be discrete behaviours to ascertain whether countermeasures would need to utilise distinct approaches. An extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) including moral norm, mobile phone involvement, and anticipated regret guided the research. Participants (n = 171) were aged 17 to 25 years, owned a mobile phone, had a current driver’s licence, and resided in Queensland. A repeated measures MANOVA found significant differences between CT and OT on all standard and extended TPB constructs. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses showed the standard TPB constructs accounted for 68.7% and 54.6% of the variance in intentions to engage in CT and OT, respectively. The extended predictors contributed additional variance in intentions over and above the standard TPB constructs. Further, in the final regression model, differences emerged in the significant predictors of each type of texting. These findings provide initial evidence that CT and OT are distinct behaviours. This distinction is important to the extent that it may influence the nature of advertising countermeasures aimed at reducing/preventing young drivers’ engagement in these risky behaviours.

Comparison of moped, scooter and motorcycle crashes : implications for rider training and education

Scooter and moped sales have increased at a faster rate than motorcycle sales over the last decade in countries such as Australia, Canada and the United States. This may be particularly evident in jurisdictions where moped riding is permitted for car license holders and a motorcycle license is not required, such as in Queensland, Australia. Having historically comprised only a small proportion of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) outside of Europe and Asia, the safety of scooters and mopeds has received relatively little focused research attention. However, the recent trends in sales and crash involvement have stimulated greater interest in these PTW types. The current paper examines differences and similarities between scooters (over 50cc), mopeds (up to 50cc) and motorcycles in crash involvement and crash characteristics through analyses of crash and registration data from Queensland, Australia. The main findings include that moped and scooter riders are similar in terms of usage patterns, but the evidence suggests superior skills, greater experience and safer behaviour among scooter riders than moped riders. The requirement in Queensland for scooter riders but not moped riders to hold a motorcycle license, usually obtained through competency-based training and assessment, may help to explain some of this difference. Findings also suggest that scooter riders are safer than motorcycle riders in some respects, despite both being subject to the same licensing requirements which encourage participation in rider training. Safer attitudes and motivations rather than superior skills and knowledge may therefore underlie the differences between scooter and motorcycle riders. In summary, riders of larger scooters exhibit a combination of skills and behavior suggestive of safer riding than both their moped and motorcycle riding counterparts. It is reasonable to expect that mopeds and scooters will remain popular and that their usage may increase further, along with that of motorcycles. This research therefore has important practical implications regarding pathways to improved PTW safety. Future policy and planning should consider options for encouraging moped riders to acquire better riding skills and greater safety awareness, as apparent among scooter riders, including rider training, education and licensing. As is noted in recent literature and reflected in some contemporary rider training programs, motorcycle safety may be improved by addressing rider attitudes more comprehensively in addition to developing skills and knowledge.