Bayesian indirect inference using a parametric auxiliary model

Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such an approach has been well explored in the classical literature but has received substantially less attention in the Bayesian paradigm. The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast a collection of what we call parametric Bayesian indirect inference (pBII) methods. One class of pBII methods uses approximate Bayesian computation (referred to here as ABC II) where the summary statistic is formed on the basis of the auxiliary model, using ideas from II. Another approach proposed in the literature, referred to here as parametric Bayesian indirect likelihood (pBIL), we show to be a fundamentally different approach to ABC II. We devise new theoretical results for pBIL to give extra insights into its behaviour and also its differences with ABC II. Furthermore, we examine in more detail the assumptions required to use each pBII method. The results, insights and comparisons developed in this paper are illustrated on simple examples and two other substantive applications. The first of the substantive examples involves performing inference for complex quantile distributions based on simulated data while the second is for estimating the parameters of a trivariate stochastic process describing the evolution of macroparasites within a host based on real data. We create a novel framework called Bayesian indirect likelihood (BIL) which encompasses pBII as well as general ABC methods so that the connections between the methods can be established.

Australia’s rural youth, online storytelling and identity performance

Online storytelling spaces provide young people who live in rural and remote parts of Australia with an opportunity to develop their personal identities and connect and communicate with other young people. The Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s (ABC’s) rural and regional youth network, Heywire, is such a space (http://www.abc.net.au/heywire/). Heywire invites 16-22 year old Australians who identify as ‘rural’ or ‘regional’ to create an online profile and upload stories about their lives in the form of text, audio, video or photographs. Emerging from my PhD project, this paper describes how rural and regional youth perform their identities through creating stories for the Heywire website, addressing notions of individual and social identities as a sub-theme. Compared with their city counterparts, the youth who live in regional towns or isolated properties have fewer opportunities to socialise with other people their own age. Subsequently computer mediated technologies, particularly the internet, can enable this group of people to connect with each other and develop a sense of community. In this paper I outline how these possibilities exist within an online storytelling space. I describe a number of reasons for young people’s story-sharing on the Heywire website in order to demonstrate the potential for spaces such as this to enable isolated youth to experience a sense of connection and belonging, despite geographical dispersion and physical isolation.

MMP-9 and the epidermal growth factor signal pathway in non-small cell lung cancer

Background Matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-9 is an endopeptidase that digests basement membrane type-IV collagen. Enhanced expression has been related to tumour progression in a number of systems. The control of MMP expression is complex, but recently epidermal growth actor receptor (EGFR) activity has been implicated in up-regulation of MMP-9 in tumour cells in vitro. Aims To evaluate interrelations between MMP-9 and EGFR expression in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to assess the impact of expression on survival. Methods This is a retrospective study of 152 patients who underwent resection for stage I-IIIa NSCLC with a post-operative survival >60 days. Minimum follow-up was 2 years. Standard ABC immunohistochemistry was performed on 4μm paraffin-embedded sections from the tumour periphery using monoclonal antibodies to MMP-9 and EGFR. Results: MMP-9 was expressed in the tumour cells of 79/152 (52%) cases. EGFR expression was found in 86/152 (57%) cases [membranous 51/152 (34%), cytoplasmic 35/152 (23%)]. MMP-9 expression was associated with poor outcome (p=0.04). Membranous, cytoplasmic and overall EGFR expression were not associated with outcome (p=0.29, p=0.85 and p=0.41 respectively). There was a strong correlation between MMP-9 expression and EGFR expression (p=0.001) and EGFR membranous expression (p=0.01) but not with cytoplasmic EGFR expression (p=0.28). Co-expression of MMP-9 and EGFR (36%) conferred a worse prognosis (p=0.003). Subset analysis revealed only MMP-9 and membranous EGFR co-expression (22%) was associated with poor outcome (p=0.008). Conclusions Our results show that MMP-9 and EGFR are co-expressed in NSCLC. This finding suggests the EGFR signalling pathway may play an important role in the invasive behaviour of NSCLC via specific upregulation of MMP-9. The co-expression of these markers also confers a poor prognosis.

Expression and prognostic influence of MMP-2, MMP-9 and TIMP-2 in non-small cell lung cancer

Background Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are a family of endopeptidases that digest the extracellular matrix (ECM). Overexpression of different MMPs has been shown to promote tumour cell invasion in vitro. Tissue inhibitors of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMPs) are specific inhibitors of MMPs that also possess growth-promoting properties. Aims To analyse the expression profile of MMP-2, MMP-9 and TIMP-2 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to assess the impact of expression on survival. Methods This is a retrospective study of patients who underwent resection for stage I-IIIa NSCLC with a post-operative survival >60 days. Patient follow up was a minimum of 2 years. Standard ABC immunohistochemistry was performed on 4μm paraffin-embedded sections from the tumour periphery using monoclonal antibodies to MMP-2, MMP-9 and TIMP-2. Results The results of the immunohistochemistry are set out below. marker tumour expression log-rank survival stromal expression log-rank survival MMP-2 9/72 (13%) p=0.10 34/72 (47%) p=0.34 MMP-9 79/152 (52%) p=0.04* 69/152 (45%) p=0.84 TIMP-2 28/90 (31%) p=0.04* 66/90 (73%) p=0.90 Two or more 16/59 (27%) p=0.007* There were no associations between expression and clinicopathological findings for any tumour marker. There was co-expression of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in tumour cells (p=0.01). Conclusions MMP-2, MMP-9 and TIMP-2 are expressed in NSCLC. MMP-9 and TIMP-2 tumour expression correlate with a poor outcome (both p=0.04) and are potential prognostic markers for NSCLC. Cumulative expression of two or more MMPs/TIMPs may also have increased prognostic significance. Proteases and their inhibitors are novel targets for therapeutic intervention and should be evaluated in NSCLC.

Prognostic significance of platelet and microvessel counts in operable non-small cell lung cancer

Background: Microvessel density, an indirect measure of angiogenesis, has been shown to be an independent prognostic marker in many solid tumours including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Platelets transport and release angiogenic growth factors. Platelets are increasingly likely to adhere to tumour microvessels due to raised expression of platelet-binding proteins and stasis in blood-flow. Increased vascular permeability in tumour microvessels facilitates platelet extravasation into the extracellular matrix. Adherence and extravasation both lead to platelet activation and release of growth factors capable of instigating the angiogenic process. Methods: A total of 181 patients were identified who underwent resection of stage I-IIIa NSCLC with a post-operative survival >60 days. Patients were followed-up for a minimum of 24 months. Sections from the tumour periphery were stained for the endothelial marker CD34 (Novocastra NCL-END) using standard ABC immunohistochemistry. Chalkley counting was used to assess microvessel density. Results: A pre-operative platelet count greater than the median and above the normal range (>400) was associated with a poor outcome (P = 0.01 and P = 0.04, respectively). Tumours with an above median and high Chalkley count (upper tertile) had a worse prognosis (P = 0.007 and P = 0.0006, respectively). There was no association between platelet count and Chalkley count. Conclusions: Platelet and microvessel counts are both potential prognostic markers for NSCLC. The role of platelets in the angiogenic process needs to be further investigated. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.

‘Time for a change in direction’ : using Indigenous knowledges as the driving force for change

We live in a time of change, of rapid change in some cases. Regardless of where we live as Indigenous peoples we see this, feel this, know this and understand this. Yet how do we manage this? At times Indigenous knowledge and Western knowledge are aligned and at other times diametrically opposed. This is also the case when examining how Indigenous knowledges are viewed, accessed and used even when politicians, governments and institutions are searching for answers and solutions for Indigenous people and for broader Australian society. Sometimes we have witnessed Indigenous knowledges too far down the back, at the bottom of the list and even disregarded. In some cases Indigenous peoples and our knowledges have been positioned as the victims of modernity. Imagine if we could draw on the strength of Indigenous knowledges as the driving force to change direction or for change. We can do this. This paper will explore some of the ways we might do this and bring about an improved society for all peoples.

Exploring sustainability in literature for the Australian curriculum : an annotated guide

The Australian Curriculum: English (AC:E) is being implemented in Queensland and asks teachers and curriculum designers to incorporate the cross curriculum priority of Sustainability. This paper examines some texts suitable for inclusion in classroom study and suggests some companion texts that may be studied alongside them, including online resources by the ABC and those developed online for the Australian Curriculum. We also suggest some formative and summative assessment possibilities for responding to the selected works in this guide. We have endeavoured to investigate literature that enable students to explore and produce text types across the three AC:E categories: persuasive, imaginative and informative. The selected texts cover traditional novels, novellas, Sci-fi and speculative fiction, non-fiction, documentary, feature film and animation. Some of the texts reviewed here also cover the other cross curriculum priorities including texts by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander writers and some which also include Asian representations. We have also indicated which of the AC:E the general capabilities are addressed in each text.

Commercial successes in the music industry

Commercial success in the music industry is obviously related to one’s ability to use musical artisanship as a basis for generating profits and to accumulate substantial wealth. That may seem fairly straightforward, but commercial success is an elusive concept that is continuously negotiated within the industry to determine both what should be considered “success” as well as how it should be measured. This entry discusses commercial success in the popular music industry and strategies used to achieve it.

The Implications of Activity Based Funding for Emergency Departments : A Comprehensive Literature Review

Executive Summary Emergency Departments (EDs) locally, nationally and internationally are becoming increasingly busy. Within this context, it can be challenging to deliver a health service that is safe, of high quality and cost-effective. Whilst various models are described within the literature that aim to measure ED ‘work’ or ‘activity’, they are often not linked to a measure of costs to provide such activity. It is important for hospital and ED managers to understand and apply this link so that optimal staffing and financial resourcing can be justifiably sought. This research is timely given that Australia has moved towards a national Activity Based Funding (ABF) model for ED activity. ABF is believed to increase transparency of care and fairness (i.e. equal work receives equal pay). ABF involves a person-, performance- or activity-based payment system, and thus a move away from historical “block payment” models that do not incentivise efficiency and quality. The aim of the Statewide Workforce and Activity-Based Funding Modelling Project in Queensland Emergency Departments (SWAMPED) is to identify and describe best practice Emergency Department (ED) workforce models within the current context of ED funding that operates under an ABF model. The study is comprised of five distinct phases. This monograph (Phase 1) comprises a systematic review of the literature that was completed in June 2013. The remaining phases include a detailed survey of Queensland hospital EDs’ resource levels, activity and operational models of care, development of new resource models, development of a user-friendly modelling interface for ED mangers, and production of a final report that identifies policy implications. The anticipated deliverable outcome of this research is the development of an ABF based Emergency Workforce Modelling Tool that will enable ED managers to profile both their workforce and operational models of care. Additionally, the tool will assist with the ability to more accurately inform adequate staffing numbers required in the future, inform planning of expected expenditures and be used for standardisation and benchmarking across similar EDs. Summary of the Findings Within the remit of this review of the literature, the main findings include: 1. EDs are becoming busier and more congested Rising demand, barriers to ED throughput and transitions of care all contribute to ED congestion. In addition requests by organisational managers and the community require continued broadening of the scope of services required of the ED and further increases in demand. As the population live longer with more lifestyle diseases their propensity to require ED care continues to grow. 2. Various models of care within EDs exist Models often vary to account for site specific characteritics to suit staffing profile, ED geographical location (e.g. metropolitan or rural site), and patient demographic profile (e.g. paediatrics, older persons, ethnicity). Existing and new models implemented within EDs often depend on the target outcome requiring change. Generally this is focussed on addressing issues at the input, throughput or output areas of the ED. Even with models targeting similar demographic or illness, the structure and process elements underpinning the model can vary, which can impact on outcomes and variance to the patient and carer experience between and within EDs. Major models of care to manage throughput inefficiencies include: A. Workforce Models of Care focus on the appropriate level of staffing for a given workload to provide prompt, timely and clinically effective patient care within an emergency care setting. The studies reviewed suggest that the early involvement of senior medical decision maker and/or specialised nursing roles such as Emergency Nurse Practitioners and Clinical Initiatives Nurse, primary contact or extended scope Allied Health Practitioners can facilitate patient flow and improve key indicators such as length of stay and reducing the number of those who did not wait to be seen amongst others. B. Operational Models of Care within EDs focus on mechanisms for streaming (e.g. fast-tracking) or otherwise grouping patient care based on acuity and complexity to assist with minimising any throughput inefficiencies. While studies support the positive impact of these models in general, it appears that they are most effective when they are adequately resourced. 3. Various methods of measuring ED activity exist Measuring ED activity requires careful consideration of models of care and staffing profile. Measuring activity requires the ability to account for factors including: patient census, acuity, LOS, intensity of intervention, department skill-mix plus an adjustment for non-patient care time. 4. Gaps in the literature Continued ED growth calls for new and innovative care delivery models that are safe, clinically effective and cost effective. New roles and stand-alone service delivery models are often evaluated in isolation without considering the global and economic impact on staffing profiles. Whilst various models of accounting for and measuring health care activity exist, costing studies and cost effectiveness studies are lacking for EDs making accurate and reliable assessments of care models difficult. There is a necessity to further understand, refine and account for measures of ED complexity that define a workload upon which resources and appropriate staffing determinations can be made into the future. There is also a need for continued monitoring and comprehensive evaluation of newly implemented workforce modelling tools. This research acknowledges those gaps and aims to: • Undertake a comprehensive and integrated whole of department workforce profiling exercise relative to resources in the context of ABF. • Inform workforce requirements based on traditional quantitative markers (e.g. volume and acuity) combined with qualitative elements of ED models of care; • Develop a comprehensive and validated workforce calculation tool that can be used to better inform or at least guide workforce requirements in a more transparent manner.

A living sacrifice

"When Susannah Birch was two years old her mother cut her throat, in a ritual sacrifice, Susannah was very lucky to survive. This was the first of her mother’s psychotic episodes as she enacted a passage from The Old Testament...In this moving documentary Susannah and her father describe their memories of this shocking event and how it has affected them."--publisher website

Approximate Bayesian computation using auxiliary model based estimates

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms using indirect infer- ence. We embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled with a trivariate Markov process. The main objective of the analysis is to compare inferences on the Markov process when considering two di®erent indirect mod- els. The two indirect models are based on a Beta-Binomial model and a three component mixture of Binomials, with the former providing a better ¯t to the observed data.

Anglican Church fails to report abuse

Evidence has emerged that the Anglican Church in Britain failed to alert police about a senior member of the clergy who's alleged to have abused children in both the Britain and Australia. Anglican Priest Reverend Robert Waddington was principal of a school in North Queensland in 1960s. He went on to become the Dean of Manchester, but he died five years ago. Allegations of abuse reached the Anglican Church in England in the late 1990s - but no action was taken. The diocese of North Queensland has begun its own investigation but it seems crucial documents may have been lost.

Managing cost implications for highway infrastructure sustainability

Highway construction works have significant bearings on all aspects of sustainability. With the increasing level of public awareness and government regulatory measures, the construction industry is experiencing a cultural shift to recognise, embrace and pursue sustainability. Stakeholders are now keen to identify sustainable alternatives and the financial implications of including them on a lifecycle basis. They need tools that can aid the evaluation of investment options. To date, however, there have not been many financial assessments on the sustainability aspects of highway projects. This is because the existing life-cycle costing analysis (LCCA) models tend to focus on economic issues alone and are not able to deal with sustainability factors. This paper provides insights into the current practice of life-cycle cost analysis, and the identification and quantification of sustainability-related cost components in highway projects through literature review, questionnaire surveys and semi-structured interviews. The results can serve as a platform for highway project stakeholders to develop practical tools to evaluate highway investment decisions and reach an optimum balance between financial viability and sustainability deliverables.

Australian screen content in education research project

Researchers from Queensland University of Technology have teamed up with the Australian Research Council (ARC), Screen Australia, The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), the Special Broadcasting Service (SBS) and the Australian Children’s Television Foundation (ACTF) to investigate the use of Australian screen content in primary, secondary and tertiary education. Over the next three years (2014-2016), researchers and investigators will undertake a national survey of schools and universities, and will conduct in-depth interviews with hundreds of industry representatives, teachers, principals, librarians and students. Furthermore, new approaches to developing screen content and curricula will be trialled. The project aims to develop a comprehensive picture of why, how, how much and where Australian screen content is used in education.