Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Predicting residue-wise contact orders in proteins by support vector regression

Background The residue-wise contact order (RWCO) describes the sequence separations between the residues of interest and its contacting residues in a protein sequence. It is a new kind of one-dimensional protein structure that represents the extent of long-range contacts and is considered as a generalization of contact order. Together with secondary structure, accessible surface area, the B factor, and contact number, RWCO provides comprehensive and indispensable important information to reconstructing the protein three-dimensional structure from a set of one-dimensional structural properties. Accurately predicting RWCO values could have many important applications in protein three-dimensional structure prediction and protein folding rate prediction, and give deep insights into protein sequence-structure relationships. Results We developed a novel approach to predict residue-wise contact order values in proteins based on support vector regression (SVR), starting from primary amino acid sequences. We explored seven different sequence encoding schemes to examine their effects on the prediction performance, including local sequence in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, local sequence plus amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight, local sequence plus secondary structure predicted by PSIPRED, local sequence plus molecular weight and amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight and predicted secondary structure, and local sequence plus molecular weight, amino acid composition and predicted secondary structure. When using local sequences with multiple sequence alignments in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, we could predict the RWCO distribution with a Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) between the predicted and observed RWCO values of 0.55, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.82, based on a well-defined dataset with 680 protein sequences. Moreover, by incorporating global features such as molecular weight and amino acid composition we could further improve the prediction performance with the CC to 0.57 and an RMSE of 0.79. In addition, combining the predicted secondary structure by PSIPRED was found to significantly improve the prediction performance and could yield the best prediction accuracy with a CC of 0.60 and RMSE of 0.78, which provided at least comparable performance compared with the other existing methods. Conclusion The SVR method shows a prediction performance competitive with or at least comparable to the previously developed linear regression-based methods for predicting RWCO values. In contrast to support vector classification (SVC), SVR is very good at estimating the raw value profiles of the samples. The successful application of the SVR approach in this study reinforces the fact that support vector regression is a powerful tool in extracting the protein sequence-structure relationship and in estimating the protein structural profiles from amino acid sequences.

History in the Australian Curriculum F-10 : providing answers without asking questions

This paper examines the most recent version of the Australian Curriculum: History F-10. It does so in two ways. First, it explores some of the strengths and weaknesses of this curriculum with reference to the decision to frame aspects of Australian history within the context of a world history approach. Whilst the positioning of Indigenous Histories is applauded, the curriculum’s lack of attention to the significance of the recent history of Australia’s Asian neighbours, and Australia’s relationship with them, is critiqued. This part of the paper also emphasises the need for comparative approaches and calls for greater emphasis on providing students with opportunities to critique and contest the construction of narratives about the past. Second, the paper introduces four invited articles that examine different aspects of the Australian Curriculum: History. Collectively these papers reiterate the significance of the richness of integrated and child-centred approaches and the importance of developing historical thinking, empathy and the historical imagination in the classroom.

From classroom resistance to school reform

In the project described in this chapter, a group of educationally disengaged high school students investigated their peers' perspectives of factors related to low aspiration for and access to university. On the basis of their findings, they created an informative DVD to address the student needs.

CDKN2A/p16 is inactivated in most melanoma cell lines

The CDKN2A gene maps to chromosome 9p21-22 and is responsible for melanoma susceptibility in some families. Its product, p16, binds specifically to CDK4 and CDK6 in vitro and in vivo, inhibiting their kinase activity. CDKN2A is homozygously deleted or mutated in a large proportion of tumor cell lines and some primary tumors, including melanomas. The aim of this study was to investigate the involvement of CDKN2A and elucidate the mechanisms of p16 inactivation in a panel of 60 cell lines derived from sporadic melanomas. Twenty-six (43%) of the melanoma lines were homozygously deleted for CDKN2A, and an additional 15 (25%) lines carried missense, nonsense, or frameshift mutations. All but one of the latter group were shown by microsatellite analysis to be hemizygous for the region of 9p surrounding CDKN2A. p16 was detected by Western blotting in only five of the cell lines carrying mutations. Immunoprecipitation of p16 in these lines, followed by Western blotting to detect the coprecipitation of CDK4 and CDK6, revealed that p16 was functionally compromised in all cell lines but the one that carried a heterozygous CDKN2A mutation. In the remaining 19 lines that carried wild-type CDKN2A alleles, Western blot analysis and immunoprecipitation indicated that 11 cell lines expressed a wild-type protein. Northern blotting was performed on the remaining eight cell lines and revealed that one cell line carried an aberrantly sized RNA transcript, and two other cell lines failed to express RNA. The promoter was found to be methylated in five cell lines that expressed CDKN2A transcript but not p16. Presumably, the message seen by Northern blotting in these cell lines is the result of cross-hybridization of the total cDNA probe with the exon 1beta transcript. Microsatellite analysis revealed that the majority of these cell lines were hemi/homozygous for the region surrounding CDKN2A, indicating that the wild-type allele had been lost. In the 11 cell lines that expressed functional p16, microsatellite analysis revealed loss of heterozygosity at the markers immediately surrounding CDKN2A in five cases, and the previously characterized R24C mutation of CDK4 was identified in one of the remaining 6 lines. These data indicate that 55 of 60 (92%) melanoma cell lines demonstrated some aberration of CDKN2A or CDK4, thus suggesting that this pathway is a primary genetic target in melanoma development.

Evidence for three tumor suppressor loci on chromosome 9p involved in melanoma development

Cytogenetic and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) studies have long indicated the presence of a tumor suppressor gene (TSG) on 9p involved in the development of melanoma. Although LOH at 9p has been reported in approximately 60% of melanoma tumors, only 5-10% of these tumors have been shown to carry CDKN2A mutations, raising the possibility that another TSG involved in melanoma maps to chromosome 9p. To investigate this possibility, a panel of 37 melanomas derived from 35 individuals was analyzed for CDKN2A mutations by single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis and sequencing. The melanoma samples were then typed for 15 markers that map to 9p13-24 to investigate LOH trends in this region. In those tumors demonstrating retention of heterozygosity at markers flanking CDKN2A and LOH on one or both sides of the gene, multiplex microsatellite PCR was performed to rule out homozygous deletion of the region encompassing CDKN2A. CDKN2A mutations were found in tumors from 5 patients [5 (14%) of 35], 4 of which demonstrated LOH across the entire region examined. The remaining tumor with no observed LOH carried two point mutations, one on each allele. Although LOH was identified at one or more markers in 22 (59%) of 37 melanoma tumors corresponding to 20 (57%) of 35 individuals, only 11 tumors from 9 individuals [9 (26%) of 35] demonstrated LOH at D9S942 and D9S1748 the markers closest to CDKN2A. Of the remaining 11 tumors with LOH 9 demonstrated LOH at two or more contiguous markers either centromeric and/or telomeric to CDKN2A while retaining heterozygosity at several markers adjacent to CDKN2A. Multiplex PCR revealed one tumor carried a homozygous deletion extending from D9S1748 to the IFN-alpha locus. In the remaining eight tumors, multiplex PCR demonstrated that the observed heterozygosity was not attributable to homozygous deletion and stromal contamination at D9S1748, D9S942, or D9S974, as measured by comparative amplification strengths, which indicates that retention of heterozygosity with flanking LOH does not always indicate a homozygous deletion. This report supports the conclusions of previous studies that a least two TSGs involved in melanoma development in addition to CDKN2A may reside on chromosome 9p.

PTEN inactivation is rare in melanoma tumours but occurs frequently in melanoma cell lines

Deletions detected in cytogenetic and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) studies indicate that at least one tumour suppressor gene maps to the long arm of chromosome 10. Previous deletion mapping studies have observed LOH on 10q in about 30% of melanomas analysed. The PTEN gene, mapping to chromosome band 10q23.3, encodes a protein with both lipid and protein phosphatase activity. Somatic mutations and deletions in have been detected in a variety of cell lines and tumours, including melanoma samples. We performed mutation analyses and extensive allelic loss studies to investigate the role this gene plays in melanoma pathogenesis. We found that a total of 34 out of 57 (60%) melanoma cell lines carried hemizygous deletions of chromosome 10q encompassing the PTEN locus. A further three cell lines carried smaller deletions excluding PTEN. Inactivation of both PTEN alleles by exon-specific homozygous deletion or mutation was observed in 13 out of 57 (23%) melanoma cell lines. The mutation spectrum observed does not indicate an important role for ultraviolet radiation in the genesis of these mutations, and evidence from three cell lines supports the acquisition of PTEN aberrations in culture. Ten out of 49 (20%) matched melanoma tumour/normal samples harboured hemizygous deletions of either the whole chromosome or most of the long arm. Mutations within were detected in only one of the 10 tumours demonstrating LOH at 10q23 that were analysed. These results suggest that PTEN inactivation may be important for the propagation of melanoma cells in culture, and that another chromosome 10 tumour suppressor gene may be important for melanoma pathogenesis.

Effect of cold water immersion on repeated cycling performance and limb blood flow

The purpose of the present study was to compare the effects of cold water immersion (CWI) and active recovery (ACT) on resting limb blood flow, rectal temperature and repeated cycling performance in the heat. Ten subjects completed two testing sessions separated by 1 week; each trial consisted of an initial all-out 35-min exercise bout, one of two 15-min recovery interventions (randomised: CWI or ACT), followed by a 40-min passive recovery period before repeating the 35-min exercise bout. Performance was measured as the change in total work completed during the exercise bouts. Resting limb blood flow, heart rate, rectal temperature and blood lactate were recorded throughout the testing sessions. There was a significant decline in performance after ACT (mean (SD) −1.81% (1.05%)) compared with CWI where performance remained unchanged (0.10% (0.71%)). Rectal temperature was reduced after CWI (36.8°C (1.0°C)) compared with ACT (38.3°C (0.4°C)), as was blood flow to the arms (CWI 3.64 (1.47) ml/100 ml/min; ACT 16.85 (3.57) ml/100 ml/min) and legs (CW 4.83 (2.49) ml/100 ml/min; ACT 4.83 (2.49) ml/100 ml/min). Leg blood flow at the end of the second exercise bout was not different between the active (15.25 (4.33) ml/100 ml/min) and cold trials (14.99 (4.96) ml/100 ml/min), whereas rectal temperature (CWI 38.1°C (0.3°C); ACT 38.8°C (0.2°C)) and arm blood flow (CWI 20.55 (3.78) ml/100 ml/min; ACT 23.83 (5.32) ml/100 ml/min) remained depressed until the end of the cold trial. These findings indicate that CWI is an effective intervention for maintaining repeat cycling performance in the heat and this performance benefit is associated with alterations in core temperature and limb blood flow.

Investigation of phenol degradation : True reaction kinetics on fixed film titanium dioxide photocatalyst

This study of photocatalytic oxidation of phenol over titanium dioxide films presents a method for the evaluation of true reaction kinetics. A flat plate reactor was designed for the specific purpose of investigating the influence of various reaction parameters, specifically photocatalytic film thickness, solution flow rate (1–8 l min−1), phenol concentration (20, 40 and 80 ppm), and irradiation intensity (70.6, 57.9, 37.1and 20.4 W m−2), in order to further understand their impact on the reaction kinetics. Special attention was given to the mass transfer phenomena and the influence of film thickness. The kinetics of phenol degradation were investigated with different irradiation levels and initial pollutant concentration. Photocatalytic degradation experiments were performed to evaluate the influence of mass transfer on the reaction and, in addition, the benzoic acid method was applied for the evaluation of mass transfer coefficient. For this study the reactor was modelled as a batch-recycle reactor. A system of equations that accounts for irradiation, mass transfer and reaction rate was developed to describe the photocatalytic process, to fit the experimental data and to obtain kinetic parameters. The rate of phenol photocatalytic oxidation was described by a Langmuir–Hinshelwood type law that included competitive adsorption and degradation of phenol and its by-products. The by-products were modelled through their additive effect on the solution total organic carbon.

“Queer” … does not have a uniform : articulations of queer identity in Australian queer student activist media

This article explores articulations of queer identity in recent Australian queer student media. Print media is of particular importance to queer communities because, as Cover argues, it provides a crucial grounding for community development and a model of queer to guide the positioning of identity and activism. This article uses discourse analysis of queer student activists’ media representations of diversity and inclusiveness to investigate the articulations of queer identity in one specific context: metropolitan Australian universities. This reveals real-life appropriations of this contentious term and contributes to a genealogy of sexuality, documenting one visible moment in history.

What determines real-world meal size? Evidence for pre-meal planning

The customary approach to the study of meal size suggests that ‘events’ occurring during a meal lead to its termination. Recent research, however, suggests that a number of decisions are made before eating commences that may affect meal size. The present study sought to address three key research questions around meal size: the extent to which plate cleaning occurs; prevalence of pre-meal planning and its influence on meal size; and the effect of within-meal experiences, notably the development of satiation. To address these, a large-cohort internet-based questionnaire was developed. Results showed that plate cleaning occurred at 91% of meals, and was planned from the outset in 92% of these cases. A significant relationship between plate cleaning and meal planning was observed. Pre meal plans were resistant to modification over the course of the meal: only 18% of participants reported consumption that deviated from expected. By contrast, 28% reported continuing eating beyond satiation, and 57% stated that they could have eaten more at the end of the meal. Logistic regression confirmed pre-meal planning as the most important predictor of consumption. Together, our findings demonstrate the importance of meal planning as a key determinant of meal size and energy intake.

‘I could eat a horse’! : meal planning determines meal size

Evidence that our food environment can affect meal size is often taken to indicate a failure of ‘conscious control’. By contrast, our research suggests that ‘expected satiation’ (fullness that a food is expected to confer) predicts self-selected meal size. However, the role of meal planning as a determinant of actual meal size remains unresolved, as does the extent to which meal planning is commonplace outside the laboratory. Here, we quantified meal planning and its relation to meal size in a large-cohort study. Participants (N= 764; 25.6 yrs, 78% female) completed a questionnaire containing items relating to their last meal. The majority (91%) of meals were consumed in their entirety. Furthermore, in 92% of these cases the participants decided to consume the whole meal, even before it began. A second major objective was to explore the prospect that meal plans are revised based on within-meal experience (e.g., development of satiation). Only 8% of participants reported ‘unexpected’ satiation that caused them to consume less than anticipated. Moreover, at the end of the meal 57% indicated that they were not fully satiated, and 29% continued eating beyond comfortable satiation (often to avoid wasting food). This pattern was neither moderated by BMI nor dieting status, and was observed across meal types. Together, these data indicate that meals are often planned and that planning corresponds closely with amount consumed. By contrast, we find limited evidence for within-meal modification of these plans, suggesting that ‘pre-meal cognition’ is an important determinant of meal size in humans.