Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes aegyptipopulations in Cairns, Australia : assessing drivers of dengue transmission

OBJECTIVES To identify the meteorological drivers of dengue vector density and determine high- and low-risk transmission zones for dengue prevention and control in Cairns, Australia. METHODS Weekly adult female Ae. aegypti data were obtained from 79 double sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in Cairns for the period September 2007-May 2012. Maximum temperature, total rainfall and average relative humidity data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the study period. Time series-distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the relationship between meteorological variables and vector density. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed via semivariography, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to predict vector density in Cairns. RESULTS Ae. aegypti density was associated with temperature and rainfall. However, these relationships differed between short (0-6 weeks) and long (0-30 weeks) lag periods. Semivariograms showed that vector distributions were spatially autocorrelated in September 2007-May 2008 and January 2009-May 2009, and vector density maps identified high transmission zones in the most populated parts of Cairns city, as well as Machans Beach. CONCLUSION Spatiotemporal patterns of Ae. aegypti in Cairns are complex, showing spatial autocorrelation and associations with temperature and rainfall. Sticky ovitraps should be placed no more than 1.2 km apart to ensure entomological coverage and efficient use of resources. Vector density maps provide evidence for the targeting of prevention and control activities. Further research is needed to explore the possibility of developing an early warning system of dengue based on meteorological and environmental factors.

High-load transit line passenger transmission and productiveness efficiencies

Performance of urban transit systems may be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity in planning, design and operational management activities. Bunker (4) defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line, which are extended in this paper to quantify efficiency and operating fashion of transit services and lines. Comparison of a hypothetical bus line’s operation during a morning peak hour and daytime hour demonstrates the usefulness of productiveness efficiency and passenger transmission efficiency, passenger churn and average proportion line length traveled to the operator in understanding their services’ and lines’ productive performance, operating characteristics, and quality of service. Productiveness efficiency can flag potential pass-up activity under high load conditions, as well as ineffective resource deployment. Proportion line length traveled can directly measure operating fashion. These measures can be used to compare between lines/routes and, within a given line, various operating scenarios and time horizons to target improvements. The next research stage is investigating within-line variation using smart card passenger data and field observation of pass-ups. Insights will be used to further develop practical guidance to operators.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Proposing and developing a definition and conceptual framework for health care resilience to cope with disasters [Resiliencia: Propuesta y desarrollo de la definicion y del marco conceptual en relacion a los desastres en el ambito sanitario]

La creación del término resiliencia en salud es un paso importante hacia la construcción de comunidades más resilientes para afrontar mejor los desastres futuros. Hasta la fecha, sin embargo, parece que hay poca literatura sobre cómo el concepto de resiliencia en salud debe ser definido. Este artículo tiene como objetivo construir un enfoque de gestión de desastres de salud integral guiado por el concepto de resiliencia. Se realizaron busquedas en bases de datos electrónicas de salud para recuperar publicaciones críticas que pueden haber contribuido a los fines y objetivos de la investigación. Un total de 61 publicaciones se incluyeron en el análisis final de este documento, que se centraron en aquéllas que proporcionan una descripción completa de las teorías y definiciones de resiliencia ante los desastres y las que proponen una definición y un marco conceptual para la capacidad de resiliencia en salud. La resiliencia es una capacidad inherente de adaptación para hacer frente a la incertidumbre del futuro. Esto implica el uso de múltiples estrategias, un enfoque de riesgos máximos y tratar de lograr un resultado positivo a través de la vinculación y cooperación entre los distintos elementos de la comunidad. Resiliencia en salud puede definirse como la capacidad de las organizaciones de salud para resistir, absorber, y responder al impacto de los desastres, mientras mantiene las funciones esenciales y se recupera a su estado original o se adapta a un nuevo estado. Puede evaluarse por criterios como la robustez, la redundancia, el ingenio y la rapidez e incluye las dimensiones clave de la vulnerabilidad y la seguridad, los recursos y la preparación para casos de desastre, la continuidad de los servicios esenciales de salud, la recuperación y la adaptación. Este nuevo concepto define las capacidades en gestión de desastres de las organizaciones sanitarias, las tareas de gestión, actividades y resultados de desastres juntos en una visión de conjunto integral, y utiliza un enfoque integrado y con un objetivo alcanzable. Se necesita urgentemente investigación futura de su medición

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Projecting future transmission of malaria under climate change scenarios : challenges and research needs

There has been an intense debate about climatic impacts on the transmission of malaria. It is vitally important to accurately project future impacts of climate change on malaria to support effective policy–making and intervention activity concerning malaria control and prevention. This paper critically reviewed the published literature and examined both key findings and methodological issues in projecting future impacts of climate change on malaria transmission. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases MEDLINE, Web of Science and PubMed. The projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission were spatially heterogeneous and somewhat inconsistent. The variation in results may be explained by the interaction of climatic factors and malaria transmission cycles, variations in projection frameworks and uncertainties of future socioecological (including climate) changes. Current knowledge gaps are identified, future research directions are proposed and public health implications are assessed. Improving the understanding of the dynamic effects of climate on malaria transmission cycles, the advancement of modelling techniques and the incorporation of uncertainties in future socioecological changes are critical factors for projecting the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.

Staurosporine augments EGF-mediated EMT in PMC42-LA cells through actin depolymerisation, focal contact size reduction and Snail1 induction : a model for cross-modulation

Background A feature of epithelial to mesenchymal transition (EMT) relevant to tumour dissemination is the reorganization of actin cytoskeleton/focal contacts, influencing cellular ECM adherence and motility. This is coupled with the transcriptional repression of E-cadherin, often mediated by Snail1, Snail2 and Zeb1/δEF1. These genes, overexpressed in breast carcinomas, are known targets of growth factor-initiated pathways, however it is less clear how alterations in ECM attachment cross-modulate to regulate these pathways. EGF induces EMT in the breast cancer cell line PMC42-LA and the kinase inhibitor staurosporine (ST) induces EMT in embryonic neural epithelial cells, with F-actin de-bundling and disruption of cell-cell adhesion, via inhibition of aPKC. Methods PMC42-LA cells were treated for 72 h with 10 ng/ml EGF, 40 nM ST, or both, and assessed for expression of E-cadherin repressor genes (Snail1, Snail2, Zeb1/δEF1) and EMT-related genes by QRT-PCR, multiplex tandem PCR (MT-PCR) and immunofluorescence +/- cycloheximide. Actin and focal contacts (paxillin) were visualized by confocal microscopy. A public database of human breast cancers was assessed for expression of Snail1 and Snail2 in relation to outcome. Results When PMC42-LA were treated with EGF, Snail2 was the principal E-cadherin repressor induced. With ST or ST+EGF this shifted to Snail1, with more extreme EMT and Zeb1/δEF1 induction seen with ST+EGF. ST reduced stress fibres and focal contact size rapidly and independently of gene transcription. Gene expression analysis by MT-PCR indicated that ST repressed many genes which were induced by EGF (EGFR, CAV1, CTGF, CYR61, CD44, S100A4) and induced genes which alter the actin cytoskeleton (NLF1, NLF2, EPHB4). Examination of the public database of breast cancers revealed tumours exhibiting higher Snail1 expression have an increased risk of disease-recurrence. This was not seen for Snail2, and Zeb1/δEF1 showed a reverse correlation with lower expression values being predictive of increased risk. Conclusion ST in combination with EGF directed a greater EMT via actin depolymerisation and focal contact size reduction, resulting in a loosening of cell-ECM attachment along with Snail1-Zeb1/δEF1 induction. This appeared fundamentally different to the EGF-induced EMT, highlighting the multiple pathways which can regulate EMT. Our findings add support for a functional role for Snail1 in invasive breast cancer.

Induction of epithelial to mesenchymal transition in PMC42-LA human breast carcinoma cells by carcinoma-associated fibroblast secreted factors

Background Breast carcinoma is accompanied by changes in the acellular and cellular components of the microenvironment, the latter typified by a switch from fibroblasts to myofibroblasts. Methods: We utilised conditioned media cultures, Western blot analysis and immunocytochemistry to investigate the differential effects of normal mammary fibroblasts (NMFs) and mammary cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) on the phenotype and behaviour of PMC42-LA breast cancer cells. NMFs were obtained from a mammary gland at reduction mammoplasty, and CAFs from a mammary carcinoma after resection. Results We found greater expression of myofibroblastic markers in CAFs than in NMFs. Medium from both CAFs and NMFs induced novel expression of α-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratin-14 in PMC42-LA organoids. However, although conditioned media from NMFs resulted in distribution of vimentin-positive cells to the periphery of PMC42-LA organoids, this was not seen with CAF-conditioned medium. Upregulation of vimentin was accompanied by a mis-localization of E-cadherin, suggesting a loss of adhesive function. This was confirmed by visualizing the change in active β-catenin, localized to the cell junctions in control cells/ cells in NMF-conditioned medium, to inactive β-catenin, localized to nuclei and cytoplasm in cells in CAF-conditioned medium. Conclusion We found no significant difference between the influences of NMFs and CAFs on PMC42-LA cell proliferation, viability, or apoptosis; significantly, we demonstrated a role for CAFs, but not for NMFs, in increasing the migratory ability of PMC42-LA cells. By concentrating NMF-conditioned media, we demonstrated the presence of factor(s) that induce epithelial-mesenchymal transition in NMF-conditioned media that are present at higher levels in CAF-conditioned media. Our in vitro results are consistent with observations in vivo showing that alterations in stroma influence the phenotype and behaviour of surrounding cells and provide evidence for a role for CAFs in stimulating cancer progression via an epithelial-mesenchymal transition. These findings have implications for our understanding of the roles of signalling between epithelial and stromal cells in the development and progression of mammary carcinoma.

Assessing the property market impact of stigma removal : high voltage overhead transmission lines removal in Wellington, NZ

This thesis advances the understanding of the impact of stigma on property values. A case study in Wellington, New Zealand, enabled hedonic modelling and an empirical analysis to determine the impact of the stigma from the high voltage transmission line structure and how long the stigma remained after removal. The results reveal a substantial difference between the discount applied to individual properties while the structure is in place, as compared to the overall increase in neighbourhood value once the structure, which created the stigma, is removed.

The making of control : an ethnomethodology of choosing management accounting systems [La fabrique du controle : une ethnomethodologie du choix des outils de gestion]

This paper sets out to contribute to the literature on the design and the implementation of management control systems. To this end, we question what is discussed when a management control system is to be chosen and on what decision-making eventually rests. This study rests upon an ethnomethodology of the Salvation Army’s French branch. Operating in the dual capacity of a researcher and a counsellor to management, between 2000 and 2007, we have unrestricted access to internal data revealing the backstage of management control: discussions and interactions surrounding the choosing of control devices. We contribute to understanding the arising of a need for control, the steps and process followed to decide upon a management control system, and controls in nonprofits. [Cet article vise à contribuer à la littérature sur la mise en place des systèmes de contrôle de gestion. À cette fin, nous questionnons ce qui est discuté lors du choix d’un système de contrôle et sur quoi repose in fine la décision. Cet article est fondé sur une approche ethnométhodologique de l’Armée du Salut en France permise par notre double qualité de chercheurs mais également de conseiller auprès de la direction de l’organisation entre 2000 et 2007. Un accès illimité à des données internes nous permet ainsi de mettre en lumière les aspects méconnus et invisibles du contrôle de gestion : les discussions et interactions entourant le choix d’outils. Nous contribuons à la compréhension de l’émergence du besoin de contrôle, des étapes et du processus de choix d’outils et enfin du contrôle de gestion dans une organisation à but non lucratif.]

From democracy in America to a la francaise accountability. Grasping the sociopolitical origins of accountability [De la démocratie en Amérique du Nord à l’accountability à la française]

Whilst native French speakers oftentimes collapse accountability to account giving, this paper outlines the shape of an accountability ala française. Reading Tocqueville’s (1835) work highlights that accountability as practiced in Anglo-Saxonc countries has been an offspring of American democracy. An accountability a la française would be characterised by conformance to a set or universal values, the submission of minorities to choices made by the majority, a means obligation as well as the rejection of transparency. [Alors que le francophone réduit généralement l’accountability à la reddition de comptes, cet article esquisse les contours d’une véritable accountability à la française. La lecture de Tocqueville (1835) révèle que l’accountability pratiquée dans les pays anglo-saxons trouve ses origines dans les fondements de la démocratie américaine. En France, l’accountability serait caractérisée par le respect d’un ensemble de valeurs universelles, l’adhésion des minorités aux choix majoritaires, l’absence de discriminations, une obligation de moyens et un rejet de la transparence.]

Myoepithelial molecular markers in human breast carcinoma PMC42-LA cells are induced by extracellular matrix and stromal cells

The microenvironment plays a key role in the cellular differentiation of the two main cell lineages of the human breast, luminal epithelial, and myoepithelial. It is not clear, however, how the components of the microenvironment control the development of these cell lineages. To investigate how lineage development is regulated by 3-D culture and microenvironment components, we used the PMC42-LA human breast carcinoma cell line, which possesses stem cell characteristics. When cultured on a two-dimensional glass substrate, PMC42-LA cells formed a monolayer and expressed predominantly luminal epithelial markers, including cytokeratins 8, 18, and 19; E-cadherin; and sialomucin. The key myoepithelial-specific proteins α-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratin 14 were not expressed. When cultured within Engelbreth-Holm- Swarm sarcoma-derived basement membrane matrix (EHS matrix), PMC42-LA cells formed organoids in which the expression of luminal markers was reduced and the expression of other myoepithelial-specific markers (cytokeratin 17 and P-cadherin) was promoted. The presence of primary human mammary gland fibroblasts within the EHS matrix induced expression of the key myoepithelial-specific markers, α-smooth muscle actin and cytokeratin 14. Immortalized human skin fibroblasts were less effective in inducing expression of these key myoepithelial-specific markers. Confocal dual-labeling showed that individual cells expressed luminal or myoepithelial proteins, but not both. Conditioned medium from the mammary fibroblasts was equally effective in inducing myoepithelial marker expression. The results indicate that the myoepithelial lineage is promoted by the extracellular matrix, in conjunction with products secreted by breast-specific fibroblasts. Our results demonstrate a key role for the breast microenvironment in the regulation of breast lineage development.