Butterfly catastrophe for fronts in a three-component reaction–diffusion system

We study the dynamics of front solutions in a three-component reaction–diffusion system via a combination of geometric singular perturbation theory, Evans function analysis, and center manifold reduction. The reduced system exhibits a surprisingly complicated bifurcation structure including a butterfly catastrophe. Our results shed light on numerically observed accelerations and oscillations and pave the way for the analysis of front interactions in a parameter regime where the essential spectrum of a single front approaches the imaginary axis asymptotically.

Investigative trends in understanding penalty-kick performance in association football: An ecological dynamics perspective

There have been different approaches to studying penalty-kick performance in association football. In this paper, the authors synthesize key findings within an ecological dynamics theoretical framework. According to this theoretical perspective, information is the cornerstone for understanding the dynamics of action regulation in penalty-kick performance. Research suggests that investigators need to identify the information sources that are most relevant to penalty-kick performance. An important task is to understand how constraints can channel (i.e. change, emphasize or mask) information sources used to regulate upcoming actions and how the influence of these constraints is expressed in players' behavioural dynamics. Due to the broad range of constraints influencing penalty-kick performance, it is recommended that future research adopts an interdisciplinary focus on performance assessment to overcome the current lack of representativeness in penalty-kick experimental designs. Such an approach would serve to capture the information-based control of action of both players as components of this dyadic system in competitive sport.

When an eco-feedback system joins the family

The dynamic, chaotic, intimate and social nature of family life presents many challenges when designing interactive systems in the household space. This paper presents findings from a whole-of-family approach to studying the use of an energy awareness and management system called “Ecosphere”. Using a novel methodology of inviting 12 families to create their own self-authored videos documenting their energy use, we report on the family dynamics and nuances of family life that shape and affect this use. Our findings suggest that the momentum of existing family dynamics in many cases obstructs behaviour change and renders some family members unaware of energy consumption despite the presence of an energy monitor display in the house. The implication for eco-feedback design is that it needs to recognise and respond to the kinds of family relations into which the system is embedded. In response, we suggest alternative ways of sharing energy-related information among families and incentivising engagement among teenagers.

An improved computational method in structural dynamics

Purpose – In structural, earthquake and aeronautical engineering and mechanical vibration, the solution of dynamic equations for a structure subjected to dynamic loading leads to a high order system of differential equations. The numerical methods are usually used for integration when either there is dealing with discrete data or there is no analytical solution for the equations. Since the numerical methods with more accuracy and stability give more accurate results in structural responses, there is a need to improve the existing methods or develop new ones. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, a new time integration method is proposed mathematically and numerically, which is accordingly applied to single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) and multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) systems. Finally, the results are compared to the existing methods such as Newmark’s method and closed form solution. Findings – It is concluded that, in the proposed method, the data variance of each set of structural responses such as displacement, velocity, or acceleration in different time steps is less than those in Newmark’s method, and the proposed method is more accurate and stable than Newmark’s method and is capable of analyzing the structure at fewer numbers of iteration or computation cycles, hence less time-consuming. Originality/value – A new mathematical and numerical time integration method is proposed for the computation of structural responses with higher accuracy and stability, lower data variance, and fewer numbers of iterations for computational cycles.

Adoption dynamics of increasing-return technologies in systemic contexts

Many systemic, complex technologies have been suggested to exhibit increasing returns to adoption, whereby the initial increase in adoption leads to increasing experience with the technology, which drives technological improvements and use, subsequently leading to further adoption. In addition, in the systemic context, mimetic behavior may lend support to increasing returns as technology adoption is witnessed among other agents in the systemic context. Finally, inter-dependencies in the systemic context also sensitize the adoption behavior to fundamental changes in technology provisioning, and this may lend support for the increasing returns type of dynamics in adoption. Our empirical study examines the dynamics of organizational technology adoption when technology is provisioned by organizations in another sub-system in a systemic context. We hypothesize that innovation, imitation, and technological change effects are present in creating increasing returns in the systemic context. Our empirical setting considers 24 technologies represented by 2282 data points in the computer industry. Our results provide support for our prediction that imitation effects are present in creating increasing returns to adoption. We further discuss the managerial and research implications of our results.

Towards the development of a low cost airborne sensing system to monitor dust particles after blasting at open-pit mine sites

Blasting is an integral part of large-scale open cut mining that often occurs in close proximity to population centers and often results in the emission of particulate material and gases potentially hazardous to health. Current air quality monitoring methods rely on limited numbers of fixed sampling locations to validate a complex fluid environment and collect sufficient data to confirm model effectiveness. This paper describes the development of a methodology to address the need of a more precise approach that is capable of characterizing blasting plumes in near-real time. The integration of the system required the modification and integration of an opto-electrical dust sensor, SHARP GP2Y10, into a small fixed-wing and multi-rotor copter, resulting in the collection of data streamed during flight. The paper also describes the calibration of the optical sensor with an industry grade dust-monitoring device, Dusttrak 8520, demonstrating a high correlation between them, with correlation coefficients (R2) greater than 0.9. The laboratory and field tests demonstrate the feasibility of coupling the sensor with the UAVs. However, further work must be done in the areas of sensor selection and calibration as well as flight planning.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Stochastic dynamics of interacting haematopoietic stem cell niche lineages

Since we still know very little about stem cells in their natural environment, it is useful to explore their dynamics through modelling and simulation, as well as experimentally. Most models of stem cell systems are based on deterministic differential equations that ignore the natural heterogeneity of stem cell populations. This is not appropriate at the level of individual cells and niches, when randomness is more likely to affect dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a fast stochastic method for simulating a metapopulation of stem cell niche lineages, that is, many sub-populations that together form a heterogeneous metapopulation, over time. By selecting the common limiting timestep, our method ensures that the entire metapopulation is simulated synchronously. This is important, as it allows us to introduce interactions between separate niche lineages, which would otherwise be impossible. We expand our method to enable the coupling of many lineages into niche groups, where differentiated cells are pooled within each niche group. Using this method, we explore the dynamics of the haematopoietic system from a demand control system perspective. We find that coupling together niche lineages allows the organism to regulate blood cell numbers as closely as possible to the homeostatic optimum. Furthermore, coupled lineages respond better than uncoupled ones to random perturbations, here the loss of some myeloid cells. This could imply that it is advantageous for an organism to connect together its niche lineages into groups. Our results suggest that a potential fruitful empirical direction will be to understand how stem cell descendants communicate with the niche and how cancer may arise as a result of a failure of such communication.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.

Molecular dynamics simulations of CXCL-8 and its interactions with a receptor peptide, heparin fragments, and sulfated linked cyclitols

CXCL-8 (Interleukin 8) is a CXC chemokine with a central role in the human immune response. We have undertaken extensive in silico analyses to elucidate the interactions of CXCL-8 with its various binding partners, which are crucial for its biological function. Sequence and structure analyses showed that residues in the thirdq β-sheet and basic residues in the heparin binding site are highly variable, while residues in the second β-sheet are highly conserved. Molecular dynamics simulations in aqueous solution of dimeric CXCL-8 have been performed with starting geometries from both X-ray and NMR structures showed shearing movements between the two antiparallel C-terminal helices. Dynamic conservation analyses of these simulations agreed with experimental data indicating that structural differences between the two structures at quaternary level arise from changes in the secondary structure of the N-terminal loop, the 310-helix, the 30s, 40s, and 50s loops and the third β-sheet, resulting in a different interhelical separation. Nevertheless, the observation of these different states indicates that CXCL-8 has the potential to undergo conformational changes, and it seems likely that this feature is relevant to the mode of binding of glycosaminoglycan (GAG) mimetics such as cyclitols. Simulations of the receptor peptide fragment−CXCL-8 complex identified several specific interactions of the receptor peptide with CXCL-8 that could be exploited in the structure-based design of competitive peptides and nonpeptidic molecules targeting CXCL-8 for combating inflammatory diseases. Simulations of the CXCL-8 dimer complexed with a 24-mer heparin fragment and of the CXCL-8−receptor peptide complex revealed that Arg60, Lys64, and Arg68 in the dimer bind to cyclitols in a horseshoe pattern, defining a region which is spatially distinct from the receptor binding site. There appears to be an optimum number of sulfates and an optimum length of alkyl spacers required for the interaction of cyclitol inhibitors with the dimeric form of CXCL-8. Calculation of the binding affinities of cyclitol inhibitors reflected satisfactorily the ranking of experimentally determined inhibitory potencies. The findings of these molecular modeling studies will help in the search for inhibitors which can modulate various CXCL-8 biological activities and serve as an excellent model system to study CXC-inhibitor interactions.

Green Falcon IV: An Unmanned Aerial System and an integrated Wireless Sensor Network for remote sensing tasks

This report summarises the development of an Unmanned Aerial System and an integrated Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), suitable for the real world application in remote sensing tasks. Several aspects are discussed and analysed to provide improvements in flight duration, performance and mobility of the UAV, while ensuring the accuracy and range of data from the wireless sensor system.