Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Panel studies of new venture creation : a review and suggestions for future research

We review all journal articles based on “PSED-type” research, i.e., longitudinal, empirical studies of large probability samples of on-going, business start-up efforts. We conclude that the research stream has yielded interesting findings; sometimes by confirming prior research with a less bias-prone methodology and at other times by challenging whether prior conclusions are valid for the early stages of venture development. Most importantly, the research has addressed new, process-related research questions that prior research has shunned or been unable to study in a rigorous manner. The research has revealed an enormous and fascinating variability in new venture creation that also makes it challenging to arrive at broadly valid generalizations. An analysis of the findings across studies as well as an examination of those studies that have been relatively more successful at explaining outcomes give good guidance regarding what is required in order to achieve strong and credible results. We compile and present such advice to users of existing data sets and designers of new projects in the following areas: Statistically representative and/or theoretically relevant sampling; Level of analysis issues; Dealing with process heterogeneity; Dealing with other heterogeneity issues, and Choice and interpretation of dependent variables.

Optimism about safety and group-serving interpretations of safety among pedestrians and cyclists in relation to road use in general and under low light conditions

Drivers are known to be optimistic about their risk of crash involvement, believing that they are less likely to be involved in a crash than other drivers. However, little comparative research has been conducted among other road users. In addition, optimism about crash risk is conceptualised as applying only to an individual’s assessment of his or her personal risk of crash involvement. The possibility that the self-serving nature of optimism about safety might be generalised to the group-level as a cyclist or a pedestrian, i.e., becoming group-serving rather than self-serving, has been overlooked in relation to road safety. This study analysed a subset of data collected as part of a larger research project on the visibility of pedestrians, cyclists and road workers, focusing on a set of questionnaire items administered to 406 pedestrians, 838 cyclists and 622 drivers. The items related to safety in various scenarios involving drivers, pedestrians and cyclists, allowing predictions to be derived about group differences in agreement with items based on the assumption that the results would exhibit group-serving bias. Analysis of the responses indicated that specific hypotheses about group-serving interpretations of safety and responsibility were supported in 22 of the 26 comparisons. When the nine comparisons relevant to low lighting conditions were considered separately, seven were found to be supported. The findings of the research have implications for public education and for the likely acceptance of messages which are inconsistent with current assumptions and expectations of pedestrians and cyclists. They also suggest that research into group-serving interpretations of safety, even for temporary roles rather than enduring groups, could be fruitful. Further, there is an implication that gains in safety can be made by better educating road users about the limitations of their visibility and the ramifications of this for their own road safety, particularly in low light.

Prevalence and determinants of the health promotion and risk reduction practices of younger female survivors of breast cancer

This thesis describes a discrete component of a larger mixed-method (survey and interview) study that explored the health-promotion and risk-reduction practices of younger premenopausal survivors of ovarian, breast and haematological cancers. This thesis outlines my distinct contribution to the larger study, which was to: (1) Produce a literature review that thoroughly explored all longer-term breast cancer treatment outcomes, and which outlined the health risks to survivors associated with these; (2) Describe and analyse the health-promotion and risk-reduction behaviours of nine younger female survivors of breast cancer as articulated in the qualitative interview dataset; and (3) Test the explanatory power of the Precede-Proceed theoretical framework underpinning the study in relation to the qualitative data from the breast cancer cohort. The thesis reveals that breast cancer survivors experienced many adverse outcomes as a result of treatment. While they generally engaged in healthy lifestyle practices, a lack of knowledge about many recommended health behaviours emerged throughout the interviews. The participants also described significant internal and external pressures to behave in certain ways because of the social norms surrounding the disease. This thesis also reports that the Precede-Proceed model is a generally robust approach to data collection, analysis and interpretation in the context of breast cancer survivorship. It provided plausible explanations for much of the data in this study. However, profound sociological and psychological implications arose during the analysis that were not effectively captured or explained by the theories underpinning the model. A sociological filter—such as Turner’s explanation of the meaning of the body and embodiment in the social sphere (Turner, 2008)—and the psychological concerns teased out in Mishel’s (1990) Uncertainty in Illness Theory, provided a useful dimension to the findings generated through the Precede-Proceed model. The thesis concludes with several recommendations for future research, clinical practice and education in this context.

The Early Prevention of Obesity in CHildren (EPOCH) collaboration : an individual patient data prospective meta-analysis

Background: Efforts to prevent the development of overweight and obesity have increasingly focused early in the life course as we recognise that both metabolic and behavioural patterns are often established within the first few years of life. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions are even more powerful when, with forethought, they are synthesised into an individual patient data (IPD) prospective meta-analysis (PMA). An IPD PMA is a unique research design where several trials are identified for inclusion in an analysis before any of the individual trial results become known and the data are provided for each randomised patient. This methodology minimises the publication and selection bias often associated with a retrospective meta-analysis by allowing hypotheses, analysis methods and selection criteria to be specified a priori. Methods/Design: The Early Prevention of Obesity in CHildren (EPOCH) Collaboration was formed in 2009. The main objective of the EPOCH Collaboration is to determine if early intervention for childhood obesity impacts on body mass index (BMI) z scores at age 18-24 months. Additional research questions will focus on whether early intervention has an impact on children’s dietary quality, TV viewing time, duration of breastfeeding and parenting styles. This protocol includes the hypotheses, inclusion criteria and outcome measures to be used in the IPD PMA. The sample size of the combined dataset at final outcome assessment (approximately 1800 infants) will allow greater precision when exploring differences in the effect of early intervention with respect to pre-specified participant- and intervention-level characteristics. Discussion: Finalisation of the data collection procedures and analysis plans will be complete by the end of 2010. Data collection and analysis will occur during 2011-2012 and results should be available by 2013. Trial registration number: ACTRN12610000789066

‘You’re a bad driver but I just made a mistake’ : attribution differences between the ‘victims’ and ‘perpetrators’ of scenario-based aggressive driving incidents

Driver aggression is an increasing concern for motorists, with some research suggesting that drivers who behave aggressively perceive their actions as justified by the poor driving of others. Thus attributions may play an important role in understanding driver aggression. A convenience sample of 193 drivers (aged 17-36) randomly assigned to two separate roles (‘perpetrators’ and ‘victims’) responded to eight scenarios of driver aggression. Drivers also completed the Aggression Questionnaire and Driving Anger Scale. Consistent with the actor-observer bias, ‘victims’ (or recipients) in this study were significantly more likely than ‘perpetrators’ (or instigators) to endorse inadequacies in the instigator’s driving skills as the cause of driver aggression. Instigators were significantly more likely attribute the depicted behaviours to external but temporary causes (lapses in judgement or errors) rather than stable causes. This suggests that instigators recognised drivers as responsible for driving aggressively but downplayed this somewhat in comparison to ‘victims’/recipients. Recipients and instigators agreed that the behaviours were examples of aggressive driving but instigators appeared to focus on the degree of intentionality of the driver in making their assessments while recipients appeared to focus on the safety implications. Contrary to expectations, instigators gave mean ratings of the emotional impact of driving aggression on recipients that were higher in all cases than the mean ratings given by the recipients. Drivers appear to perceive aggressive behaviours as modifiable, with the implication that interventions could appeal to drivers’ sense of self-efficacy to suggest strategies for overcoming plausible and modifiable attributions (e.g. lapses in judgement; errors) underpinning behaviours perceived as aggressive.

Evidence of disagreement between patient-perceived change and conventional longitudinal evaluation of change in health-related quality of life among older adults

Objective: To identify agreement levels between conventional longitudinal evaluation of change (post–pre) and patient-perceived change (post–then test) in health-related quality of life. Design: A prospective cohort investigation with two assessment points (baseline and six-month follow-up) was implemented. Setting: Community rehabilitation setting. Subjects: Frail older adults accessing community-based rehabilitation services. Intervention: Nil as part of this investigation. Main measures: Conventional longitudinal change in health-related quality of life was considered the difference between standard EQ-5D assessments completed at baseline and follow-up. To evaluate patient-perceived change a ‘then test’ was also completed at the follow-up assessment. This required participants to report (from their current perspective) how they believe their health-related quality of life was at baseline (using the EQ-5D). Patient-perceived change was considered the difference between ‘then test’ and standard follow-up EQ-5D assessments. Results: The mean (SD) age of participants was 78.8 (7.3). Of the 70 participants 62 (89%) of data sets were complete and included in analysis. Agreement between conventional (post–pre) and patient-perceived (post–then test) change was low to moderate (EQ-5D utility intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)¼0.41, EQ-5D visual analogue scale (VAS) ICC¼0.21). Neither approach inferred greater change than the other (utility P¼0.925, VAS P¼0.506). Mean (95% confidence interval (CI)) conventional change in EQ-5D utility and VAS were 0.140 (0.045,0.236) and 8.8 (3.3,14.3) respectively, while patient-perceived change was 0.147 (0.055,0.238) and 6.4 (1.7,11.1) respectively. Conclusions: Substantial disagreement exists between conventional longitudinal evaluation of change in health-related quality of life and patient-perceived change in health-related quality of life (as measured using a then test) within individuals.

Measuring falls events in acute hospitals-A comparison of three reporting methods to identify missing data in the hospital reporting system

OBJECTIVES: To compare three different methods of falls reporting and examine the characteristics of the data missing from the hospital incident reporting system. DESIGN: Fourteen-month prospective observational study nested within a randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Rehabilitation, stroke, medical, surgical, and orthopedic wards in Perth and Brisbane, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Fallers (n5153) who were part of a larger trial (1,206 participants, mean age 75.1 � 11.0). MEASUREMENTS: Three falls events reporting measures: participants’ self-report of fall events, fall events reported in participants’ case notes, and falls events reported through the hospital reporting systems. RESULTS: The three reporting systems identified 245 falls events in total. Participants’ case notes captured 226 (92.2%) falls events, hospital incident reporting systems captured 185 (75.5%) falls events, and participant selfreport captured 147 (60.2%) falls events. Falls events were significantly less likely to be recorded in hospital reporting systems when a participant sustained a subsequent fall, (P5.01) or when the fall occurred in the morning shift (P5.01) or afternoon shift (P5.01). CONCLUSION: Falls data missing from hospital incident report systems are not missing completely at random and therefore will introduce bias in some analyses if the factor investigated is related to whether the data ismissing.Multimodal approaches to collecting falls data are preferable to relying on a single source alone.

Stripping Sight Bare : Alison Jones’ ‘Portraits by Proxy’

In this paper I analyse UK artist Alison Jones’ sonic interventions Portrait of the Artist by Proxy (2008), Voyeurism by Proxy (2008) and Art, Lies and Audio Tapes (2009). In Portrait of the Artist by Proxy, Jones – who, due to deteriorating vision, has not seen her reflection in a mirror in years – asks and trusts participants to audio-describe her own image back to her. In Voyeurism by Proxy, Jones asks participants to audio-describe erotic drawings by Gustav Klimt. In Art, Lies and Audio Tapes, Jones asks participants to audio-describe other artworks, such as W.F. Yeames’ And When Did You Last see Your Father?. In these portraits by proxy, Jones opens her image, and other images, to interpretation. In doing so, Jones draws attention to the way sight is privileged as a mode of access to fixed, fundamental truths in Western culture – a mode assumed to be untainted by filters that skew perception of the object. “In a culture where vision is by far the dominant sense,” Jones says, “and as a visual artist with a visual impairment, I am reliant on audio-description …Inevitably, there are limitations imposed by language, time and the interpreter’s background knowledge of the subject viewed, as well as their personal bias of what is deemed important to impart in their description” . In these works, Jones strips these background knowledges, biases and assumptions bare. She reveals different perceptions, as well as tendencies or censor, edit or exaggerate descriptions. In this paper, I investigate how, by revealing unconscious biases, Jones’ works renders herself and her participants vulnerable to a change of perception. I also examine how Jones’ later editing of the audio-descriptions allows her to show the instabilities of sight, and, in Portrait of the Artist by Proxy, to reclaim authorship of her own image.

How do we reach them? Comparing random samples from mobile and landline phones

Quantitative studies of nascent entrepreneurs such as GEM and PSED are required to generate their samples by screening the adult population, usually by phone in developed economies. Phone survey research has recently been challenged by shifting patterns of ownership and response rates of landline versus mobile (cell) phones, particularly for younger respondents. This challenge is acutely intense for entrepreneurship which is a strongly age-dependent phenomenon. Although shifting ownership rates have received some attention, shifting response rates have remained largely unexplored. For the Australian GEM 2010 adult population study we conducted a dual-frame approach that allows comparison between samples of mobile and landline phones. We find a substantial response bias towards younger, male and metropolitan respondents for mobile phones – far greater than explained by ownership rates. We also found these response rate differences significantly biases the estimates of the prevalence of early stage entrepreneurship by both samples, even when each sample is weighted to match the Australian population.

Patient preference for falls prevention in hospitals revealed through willingness-to-pay, contingent valuation survey

Rationale, aims and objectives: Patient preference for interventions aimed at preventing in-hospital falls has not previously been investigated. This study aims to contrast the amount patients are willing to pay to prevent falls through six intervention approaches. ----- ----- Methods: This was a cross-sectional willingness-to-pay (WTP), contingent valuation survey conducted among hospital inpatients (n = 125) during their first week on a geriatric rehabilitation unit in Queensland, Australia. Contingent valuation scenarios were constructed for six falls prevention interventions: a falls consultation, an exercise programme, a face-to-face education programme, a booklet and video education programme, hip protectors and a targeted, multifactorial intervention programme. The benefit to participants in terms of reduction in risk of falls was held constant (30% risk reduction) within each scenario. ----- ----- Results: Participants valued the targeted, multifactorial intervention programme the highest [mean WTP (95% CI): $(AUD)268 ($240, $296)], followed by the falls consultation [$215 ($196, $234)], exercise [$174 ($156, $191)], face-to-face education [$164 ($146, $182)], hip protector [$74 ($62, $87)] and booklet and video education interventions [$68 ($57, $80)]. A ‘cost of provision’ bias was identified, which adversely affected the valuation of the booklet and video education intervention. ----- ----- Conclusion: There may be considerable indirect and intangible costs associated with interventions to prevent falls in hospitals that can substantially affect patient preferences. These costs could substantially influence the ability of these interventions to generate a net benefit in a cost–benefit analysis.

Manipulating double-decker molecules at the liquid-solid interface

We have used a scanning tunneling microscope to manipulate heteroleptic phthalocyaninato, naphthalocyaninato, porphyrinato double-decker molecules at the liquid/solid interface between 1-phenyloctane solvent and graphite. We employed nano-grafting of phthalocyanines with eight octyl chains to place these molecules into a matrix of heteroleptic double-decker molecules; the overlayer structure is epitaxial on graphite. We have also used nano-grafting to place double-decker molecules in matrices of single-layer phthalocyanines with octyl chains. Rectangular scans with a scanning tunneling microscope at low bias voltage resulted in the removal of the adsorbed doubledecker molecular layer and substituted the double-decker molecules with bilayer-stacked phthalocyanines from phenyloctane solution. Single heteroleptic double-decker molecules with lutetium sandwiched between naphthalocyanine and octaethylporphyrin were decomposed with voltage pulses from the probe tip; the top octaethylporphyrin ligand was removed and the bottom naphthalocyanine ligand remained on the surface. A domain of decomposed molecules was formed within the double-decker molecular domain, and the boundary of the decomposed molecular domain self-cured to become rectangular. We demonstrated a molecular “sliding block puzzle” with cascades of double-decker molecules on the graphite surface.

The concept of 'Organismic Asymmetry' in sport science

The concept of organismic asymmetry refers to an inherent bias for seeking explanations of human performance and behaviour based on internal mechanisms and referents. A weakness in this tendency is a failure to consider the performer–environment relationship as the relevant scale of analysis. In this paper we elucidate the philosophical roots of the bias and discuss implications of organismic asymmetry for sport science and performance analysis, highlighting examples in psychology, sports medicine and biomechanics.

What are the real costs of major trauma?

Background This economic evaluation reports the results of a detailed study of the cost of major trauma treated at Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH), Australia. Methods A bottom-up approach was used to collect and aggregate the direct and indirect costs generated by a sample of 30 inpatients treated for major trauma at PAH in 2004. Major trauma was defined as an admission for Multiple Significant Trauma with an Injury Severity Score >15. Direct and indirect costs were amalgamated from three sources, (1) PAH inpatient costs, (2) Medicare Australia, and (3) a survey instrument. Inpatient costs included the initial episode of inpatient care including clinical and outpatient services and any subsequent representations for ongoing-related medical treatment. Medicare Australia provided an itemized list of pharmaceutical and ambulatory goods and services. The survey instrument collected out-of-pocket expenses and opportunity cost of employment forgone. Inpatient data obtained from a publically funded trauma registry were used to control for any potential bias in our sample. Costs are reported in Australian dollars for 2004 and 2008. Results The average direct and indirect costs of major trauma incurred up to 1-year postdischarge were estimated to be A$78,577 and A$24,273, respectively. The aggregate costs, for the State of Queensland, were estimated to range from A$86.1 million to $106.4 million in 2004 and from A$135 million to A$166.4 million in 2008. Conclusion These results demonstrate that (1) the costs of major trauma are significantly higher than previously reported estimates and (2) the cost of readmissions increased inpatient costs by 38.1%.

Perioperative mortality after hemiarthroplasty related to fixation method : a study based on the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

Background and purpose: The appropriate fixation method for hemiarthroplasty of the hip as it relates to implant survivorship and patient mortality is a matter of ongoing debate. We examined the influence of fixation method on revision rate and mortality.----- ----- Methods: We analyzed approximately 25,000 hemiarthroplasty cases from the AOA National Joint Replacement Registry. Deaths at 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year were compared for all patients and among subgroups based on implant type.----- ----- Results: Patients treated with cemented monoblock hemiarthroplasty had a 1.7-times higher day-1 mortality compared to uncemented monoblock components (p < 0.001). This finding was reversed by 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year after surgery (p < 0.001). Modular hemiarthroplasties did not reveal a difference in mortality between fixation methods at any time point.----- ----- Interpretation: This study shows lower (or similar) overall mortality with cemented hemiarthroplasty of the hip.