Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Statistical power calculation and sample size determination for environmental studies with data below detection limits

Power calculation and sample size determination are critical in designing environmental monitoring programs. The traditional approach based on comparing the mean values may become statistically inappropriate and even invalid when substantial proportions of the response values are below the detection limits or censored because strong distributional assumptions have to be made on the censored observations when implementing the traditional procedures. In this paper, we propose a quantile methodology that is robust to outliers and can also handle data with a substantial proportion of below-detection-limit observations without the need of imputing the censored values. As a demonstration, we applied the methods to a nutrient monitoring project, which is a part of the Perth Long-Term Ocean Outlet Monitoring Program. In this example, the sample size required by our quantile methodology is, in fact, smaller than that by the traditional t-test, illustrating the merit of our method.

Smooth bootstrap methods for analysis of longitudinal data

In analysis of longitudinal data, the variance matrix of the parameter estimates is usually estimated by the 'sandwich' method, in which the variance for each subject is estimated by its residual products. We propose smooth bootstrap methods by perturbing the estimating functions to obtain 'bootstrapped' realizations of the parameter estimates for statistical inference. Our extensive simulation studies indicate that the variance estimators by our proposed methods can not only correct the bias of the sandwich estimator but also improve the confidence interval coverage. We applied the proposed method to a data set from a clinical trial of antibiotics for leprosy.

Sampling Methods for Exploring Between Subject Variability in Cardiac Electrophysiology Experiments

Between-subject and within-subject variability is ubiquitous in biology and physiology and understanding and dealing with this is one of the biggest challenges in medicine. At the same time it is difficult to investigate this variability by experiments alone. A recent modelling and simulation approach, known as population of models (POM), allows this exploration to take place by building a mathematical model consisting of multiple parameter sets calibrated against experimental data. However, finding such sets within a high-dimensional parameter space of complex electrophysiological models is computationally challenging. By placing the POM approach within a statistical framework, we develop a novel and efficient algorithm based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We compare the SMC approach with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a method commonly adopted in the literature for obtaining the POM, in terms of efficiency and output variability in the presence of a drug block through an in-depth investigation via the Beeler-Reuter cardiac electrophysiological model. We show improved efficiency via SMC and that it produces similar responses to LHS when making out-of-sample predictions in the presence of a simulated drug block.

GENEHUNTER: your 'one-stop shop' for statistical genetic analysis?

The past decade has brought a proliferation of statistical genetic (linkage) analysis techniques, incorporating new methodology and/or improvement of existing methodology in gene mapping, specifically targeted towards the localization of genes underlying complex disorders. Most of these techniques have been implemented in user-friendly programs and made freely available to the genetics community. Although certain packages may be more 'popular' than others, a common question asked by genetic researchers is 'which program is best for me?'. To help researchers answer this question, the following software review aims to summarize the main advantages and disadvantages of the popular GENEHUNTER package.

Using Lifespan developmental theory and methods as a viable alternative to the study of generational differences at work

I agree with Costanza and Finkelstein (2015) that it is futile to further invest in the study of generational differences in the work context due to a lack of appropriate theory and methods. The key problem with the generations concept is that splitting continuous variables such as age or time into a few discrete units involves arbitrary cutoffs and atheoretical groupings of individuals (e.g., stating that all people born between the early 1960s and early 1980s belong to Generation X). As noted by methodologists, this procedure leads to a loss of information about individuals and reduced statistical power (MacCallum, Zhang, Preacher, & Rucker, 2002). Due to these conceptual and methodological limitations, I regard it as very difficult if not impossible to develop a “comprehensive theory of generations” (Costanza & Finkelstein, p. 20) and to rigorously examine generational differences at work in empirical studies.

Computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides

The past several years have seen significant advances in the development of computational methods for the prediction of the structure and interactions of coiled-coil peptides. These methods are generally based on pairwise correlations of amino acids, helical propensity, thermal melts and the energetics of sidechain interactions, as well as statistical patterns based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) techniques. These methods are complemented by a number of public databases that contain sequences, motifs, domains and other details of coiled-coil structures identified by various algorithms. Some of these computational methods have been developed to make predictions of coiled-coil structure on the basis of sequence information; however, structural predictions of the oligomerisation state of these peptides still remains largely an open question due to the dynamic behaviour of these molecules. This review focuses on existing in silico methods for the prediction of coiled-coil peptides of functional importance using sequence and/or three-dimensional structural data.