Characterising anomalous events using change point correlation on unsolicited network traffic

Monitoring unused or dark IP addresses offers opportunities to extract useful information about both on-going and new attack patterns. In recent years, different techniques have been used to analyze such traffic including sequential analysis where a change in traffic behavior, for example change in mean, is used as an indication of malicious activity. Change points themselves say little about detected change; further data processing is necessary for the extraction of useful information and to identify the exact cause of the detected change which is limited due to the size and nature of observed traffic. In this paper, we address the problem of analyzing a large volume of such traffic by correlating change points identified in different traffic parameters. The significance of the proposed technique is two-fold. Firstly, automatic extraction of information related to change points by correlating change points detected across multiple traffic parameters. Secondly, validation of the detected change point by the simultaneous presence of another change point in a different parameter. Using a real network trace collected from unused IP addresses, we demonstrate that the proposed technique enables us to not only validate the change point but also extract useful information about the causes of change points.

QoS-aware reference station placement for regional network RTK

Network RTK (Real-Time Kinematic) is a technology that is based on GPS (Global Positioning System) or more generally on GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements to achieve centimeter-level accuracy positioning in real-time. Reference station placement is an important problem in the design and deployment of network RTK systems as it directly affects the quality of the positioning service and the cost of the network RTK systems. This paper identifies a new reference station placement for network RTK, namely QoS-aware regional network RTK reference station placement problem, and proposes an algorithm for the new reference station placement problem. The algorithm can always produce a reference station placement solution that completely covers the region of network RTK.

Foldback current control for a DG to achieve Fast Arc Extinction in a distribution network

The distribution network reliability can be increased if distributed generators (DGs) are allowed to operate in both grid-connected and islanded operations when the network has a high DG penetration level. However, the current utility regulations do not allow for the islanded operation. The arc faults are the one of the major issues preventing the islanded operation, since the arc will not extinguish if the DGs are not disconnected. In this paper, the effect of a converter interfaced DG on an arc fault is investigated by considering different control strategies for the converter. The foldback current control characteristic is proposed to a converter interfaced DG to achieve quick arc extinction and self-restoration without disconnecting the DG in the event of an arc fault. The results are validated through PSCAD/EMTDC simulations.

Remediating vernacular creativity : photography and cultural citizenship in the Flickr photosharing network

Read through a focus on the remediation of personal photography in the Flickr photosharing website, in this essay I treat vernacular creativity as a field of cultural practice; one that that does not operate inside the institutions or cultural value systems of high culture or the commercial popular media, and yet draws on and is periodically appropriated by these other systems in dynamic and productive ways. Because of its porosity to commercial culture and art practice, this conceptual model of ‘vernacular creativity’ implies a historicised account of ‘ordinary’ or everyday creative practice that accounts for both continuity and change and avoids creating a nostalgic desire for the recuperation of an authentic folk culture. Moving beyond individual creative practice, the essay concludes by considering the unintended consequences of vernacular creativity practiced in online social networks: in particular, the idea of cultural citizenship.

A framework for network RTK data processing based on grid computing

Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning is a technique used to provide precise positioning services at centimetre accuracy level in the context of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). While a Network-based RTK (N-RTK) system involves multiple continuously operating reference stations (CORS), the simplest form of a NRTK system is a single-base RTK. In Australia there are several NRTK services operating in different states and over 1000 single-base RTK systems to support precise positioning applications for surveying, mining, agriculture, and civil construction in regional areas. Additionally, future generation GNSS constellations, including modernised GPS, Galileo, GLONASS, and Compass, with multiple frequencies have been either developed or will become fully operational in the next decade. A trend of future development of RTK systems is to make use of various isolated operating network and single-base RTK systems and multiple GNSS constellations for extended service coverage and improved performance. Several computational challenges have been identified for future NRTK services including: • Multiple GNSS constellations and multiple frequencies • Large scale, wide area NRTK services with a network of networks • Complex computation algorithms and processes • Greater part of positioning processes shifting from user end to network centre with the ability to cope with hundreds of simultaneous users’ requests (reverse RTK) There are two major requirements for NRTK data processing based on the four challenges faced by future NRTK systems, expandable computing power and scalable data sharing/transferring capability. This research explores new approaches to address these future NRTK challenges and requirements using the Grid Computing facility, in particular for large data processing burdens and complex computation algorithms. A Grid Computing based NRTK framework is proposed in this research, which is a layered framework consisting of: 1) Client layer with the form of Grid portal; 2) Service layer; 3) Execution layer. The user’s request is passed through these layers, and scheduled to different Grid nodes in the network infrastructure. A proof-of-concept demonstration for the proposed framework is performed in a five-node Grid environment at QUT and also Grid Australia. The Networked Transport of RTCM via Internet Protocol (Ntrip) open source software is adopted to download real-time RTCM data from multiple reference stations through the Internet, followed by job scheduling and simplified RTK computing. The system performance has been analysed and the results have preliminarily demonstrated the concepts and functionality of the new NRTK framework based on Grid Computing, whilst some aspects of the performance of the system are yet to be improved in future work.

Prediction of adherence and control in diabetes

This study aims to predict adherence to diabetic treatment regimens and sustained diabetic control. During two clinic visits that were 2 months apart, 63 adult outpatients completed measures of diabetic history, current treatment, diabetic control, adherence, and self-efficacy about adherence to treatment. Results showed that self-efficacy was a significant predictor of later adherence to diabetes treatment even after past levels of adherence were taken into account. Posttest levels of adherence in turn were significantly associated with posttest %HbA1c after control for illness severity. A stepwise multiple regression to predict %HbAlc at post entered pretest measures of diabetic control, treatment type, and self-efficacy, which together predicted 50% of the variance. Results are related to self-efficacy theory and implications for practice are discussed.

Multicomponent kinetic spectrophotometric determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin in pharmaceutical preparations and human plasma samples with the aid of chemometrics

A spectrophotometric method for the simultaneous determination of the important pharmaceuticals, pefloxacin and its structurally similar metabolite, norfloxacin, is described for the first time. The analysis is based on the monitoring of a kinetic spectrophotometric reaction of the two analytes with potassium permanganate as the oxidant. The measurement of the reaction process followed the absorbance decrease of potassium permanganate at 526 nm, and the accompanying increase of the product, potassium manganate, at 608 nm. It was essential to use multivariate calibrations to overcome severe spectral overlaps and similarities in reaction kinetics. Calibration curves for the individual analytes showed linear relationships over the concentration ranges of 1.0–11.5 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for pefloxacin, and 0.15–1.8 mg L−1 at 526 and 608 nm for norfloxacin. Various multivariate calibration models were applied, at the two analytical wavelengths, for the simultaneous prediction of the two analytes including classical least squares (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS), radial basis function-artificial neural network (RBF-ANN) and principal component-radial basis function-artificial neural network (PC-RBF-ANN). PLS and PC-RBF-ANN calibrations with the data collected at 526 nm, were the preferred methods—%RPET not, vert, similar 5, and LODs for pefloxacin and norfloxacin of 0.36 and 0.06 mg L−1, respectively. Then, the proposed method was applied successfully for the simultaneous determination of pefloxacin and norfloxacin present in pharmaceutical and human plasma samples. The results compared well with those from the alternative analysis by HPLC.

Urban network travel time estimation from stop-line loop detector data and signal controller data

This paper presents a model to estimate travel time using cumulative plots. Three different cases considered are i) case-Det, for only detector data; ii) case-DetSig, for detector data and signal controller data and iii) case-DetSigSFR: for detector data, signal controller data and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different detection intervals is evaluated. It is observed that detection interval is not critical if signal timings are available. Comparable accuracy can be obtained from larger detection interval with signal timings or from shorter detection interval without signal timings. The performance for case-DetSig and for case-DetSigSFR is consistent with accuracy generally more than 95% whereas, case-Det is highly sensitive to the signal phases in the detection interval and its performance is uncertain if detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycles.

Examining the use of bid information in predicting the contractor’s performance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of bid information, including both price and non-price factors in predicting the bidder’s performance. Design/methodology/approach – The practice of the industry was first reviewed. Data on bid evaluation and performance records of the successful bids were then obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department, the largest housing provider in Hong Kong. This was followed by the development of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network based performance prediction model. Findings – It is found that public clients are more conscientious and include non-price factors in their bid evaluation equations. With the input variables used the information is available at the time of the bid and the output variable is the project performance score recorded during work in progress achieved by the successful bidder. It was found that past project performance score is the most sensitive input variable in predicting future performance. Research limitations/implications – The paper shows the inadequacy of using price alone for bid award criterion. The need for a systemic performance evaluation is also highlighted, as this information is highly instrumental for subsequent bid evaluations. The caveat for this study is that the prediction model was developed based on data obtained from one single source. Originality/value – The value of the paper is in the use of an RBF neural network as the prediction tool because it can model non-linear function. This capability avoids tedious ‘‘trial and error’’ in deciding the number of hidden layers to be used in the network model. Keywords Hong Kong, Construction industry, Neural nets, Modelling, Bid offer spreads Paper type Research paper

Predicting project performance through neural networks

Successful project delivery of construction projects depends on many factors. With regard to the construction of a facility, selecting a competent contractor for the job is paramount. As such, various approaches have been advanced to facilitate tender award decisions. Essentially, this type of decision involves the prediction of a bidderÕs performance based on information available at the tender stage. A neural network based prediction model was developed and presented in this paper. Project data for the study were obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department. Information from the tender reports was used as input variables and performance records of the successful bidder during construction were used as output variables. It was found that the networks for the prediction of performance scores for Works gave the highest hit rate. In addition, the two most sensitive input variables toward such prediction are ‘‘Difference between Estimate’’ and ‘‘Difference between the next closest bid’’. Both input variables are price related, thus suggesting the importance of tender sufficiency for the assurance of quality production.

The Alcohol Helplessness Scale and its prediction of depression among problem drinkers

Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained.

Prediction of psychological adjustment to multiple sclerosis

This study examined the utility of self-efficacy as a predictor of social activity and mood control in multiple sclerosis (MS). Seventy-one subjects with MS were recruited from people attending an MS centre or from a mailing list and were examined on two occasions that were two months apart. Clinic patients were more disabled than patients who completed assessments by post, but they were of higher socioeconomic status and were less dysphoric. We attempted to predict self-reported performance of mood control and social activity at two months, from self-efficacy or performance on these tasks at pretest. Demographic variables, disorder status, disability, self-esteem and depression were also allowed to compete for entry into multiple regressions. Substantial stability in mood, performance and disability was observed over the two months. In both mood control and social activity, past performance was the strongest predictor of later performance, but self-efficacy also contributed significantly to the prediction. The disability level entered a prediction of socila activity, but no other variables predicted either type of performance. A secondary analysis predicting self-esteem at two months also included self-efficacy for social activity, illustrating the contribution of perceived capability to later assessments of self-worth. The study provided support for self-efficacy as a predictor of later behavioural outcomes and self-esteem in multiple sclerosis.

Prediction of adjacent vertebral fracture risk associated with vertebroplasty : a computer-based simulation study

Vertebrplasty involved injecting cement into a fractured vertebra to provide stabilisation. There is clinical evidence to suggest however that vertebroplasty may be assocated with a higher risk of adjacent vertebral fracture; which may be due to the change in material properties of the post-procedure vertebra modifying the transmission of mechanical stresses to adjacent vertebrae.

Prediction of outcome with group cognitive therapy for depression

Tested a social–cognitive model of depressive episodes and their treatment within a predictive study of treatment response. 42 clinically depressed volunteers (aged 22–60 yrs) were given self-efficacy (SE) questionnaires and other measures before and after treatment with cognitive therapy. Results support the idea that SE and skills regarding control of negative cognition mediates a sustained response to cognitive treatment for depression. Not only did mood-control variables correlate highly with concurrent changes in depression scores during treatment, but the posttreatment SE measure discriminated Ss who relapsed over the next 12 mo.

A fuzzy neural network approach for contractor pre-qualification

Nonlinearity, uncertainty and subjectivity are the three predominant characteristics of contractors prequalification which cause the process more of an art than a scientific evaluation. A fuzzy neural network (FNN) model, amalgamating both the fuzzy set and neural network theories, has been developed aiming to improve the objectiveness of contractor prequalification. Through the FNN theory, the fuzzy rules as used by the prequalifiers can be identified and the corresponding membership functions can be transformed. Eighty-five cases with detailed decision criteria and rules for prequalifying Hong Kong civil engineering contractors were collected. These cases were used for training (calibrating) and testing the FNN model. The performance of the FNN model was compared with the original results produced by the prequalifiers and those generated by the general feedforward neural network (GFNN, i.e. a crisp neural network) approach. Contractor’s ranking orders, the model efficiency (R2) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were examined during the testing phase. These results indicate the applicability of the neural network approach for contractor prequalification and the benefits of the FNN model over the GFNN model. The FNN is a practical approach for modelling contractor prequalification.