A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Estimating the impact of reduced inertia on frequency stability due to large-scale wind penetration in Australian electricity network

Large-scale integration of non-inertial generators such as wind farms will create frequency stability issues due to reduced system inertia. Inertia based frequency stability study is important to predict the performance of power system with increased level of renewables. This paper focuses on the impact large-scale wind penetration on frequency stability of the Australian Power Network. MATLAB simulink is used to develop a frequency based dynamic model utilizing the network data from a simplified 14-generator Australian power system. The loss of generation is modeled as the active power disturbance and minimum inertia required to maintain the frequency stability is determined for five-area power system.

The impact of Internet marketing capabilities on international network capability, a cross country study comparison between Australia, Chile and Taiwan internationalised SMEs

The Internet has been shown to positively enhance internationalisation for SMEs, but scant empirical testing limits our understanding of the explicit impact of the Internet on firm internationalisation. This paper highlights key areas where the integration of the Internet can be leveraged through Internet-related capabilities within the internationalisation of the firm. Specifically, this study investigates how Internet marketing capabilities play a role in altering international information availability, international strategic orientation, and international business network relationships. This study provides evidence, indicating that these key relationships may vary between countries. To examine these key relationships this study utilises draws from data small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in three export intensive markets; Australia (215 international SMEs), Chile (204 international SMEs) and Taiwan (130 international SMEs); and tests a conceptual model through structural equation modelling. Results from the data show the impact of Internet marketing capabilities in positively impacting traditional internationalisation elements, which varies between countries. That is, our findings highlight the international business network relationships in Australia and Taiwan are directly impacted by Internet marketing capabilities, but not in Chile. We offer some insight into why we see variance across comparative exporting countries in how they leverage new technological capabilities for internationalisation and firm performance.

Model refinement through high-performance computing: an agent-based HIV example

Background Recent advances in Immunology highlighted the importance of local properties on the overall progression of HIV infection. In particular, the gastrointestinal tract is seen as a key area during early infection, and the massive cell depletion associated with it may influence subsequent disease progression. This motivated the development of a large-scale agent-based model. Results Lymph nodes are explicitly implemented, and considerations on parallel computing permit large simulations and the inclusion of local features. The results obtained show that GI tract inclusion in the model leads to an accelerated disease progression, during both the early stages and the long-term evolution, compared to a theoretical, uniform model. Conclusions These results confirm the potential of treatment policies currently under investigation, which focus on this region. They also highlight the potential of this modelling framework, incorporating both agent-based and network-based components, in the context of complex systems where scaling-up alone does not result in models providing additional insights.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.

Prediction of GMA welding characteristic parameter by artificial neural network system

Nowadays, demand for automated Gas metal arc welding (GMAW) is growing and consequently need for intelligent systems is increased to ensure the accuracy of the procedure. To date, welding pool geometry has been the most used factor in quality assessment of intelligent welding systems. But, it has recently been found that Mahalanobis Distance (MD) not only can be used for this purpose but also is more efficient. In the present paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has been used for prediction of MD parameter. However, advantages and disadvantages of other methods have been discussed. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was found to be the most effective algorithm for GMAW process. It is known that the number of neurons plays an important role in optimal network design. In this work, using trial and error method, it has been found that 30 is the optimal number of neurons. The model has been investigated with different number of layers in Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architecture and has been shown that for the aim of this work the optimal result is obtained when using MLP with one layer. Robustness of the system has been evaluated by adding noise into the input data and studying the effect of the noise in prediction capability of the network. The experiments for this study were conducted in an automated GMAW setup that was integrated with data acquisition system and prepared in a laboratory for welding of steel plate with 12 mm in thickness. The accuracy of the network was evaluated by Root Mean Squared (RMS) error between the measured and the estimated values. The low error value (about 0.008) reflects the good accuracy of the model. Also the comparison of the predicted results by ANN and the test data set showed very good agreement that reveals the predictive power of the model. Therefore, the ANN model offered in here for GMA welding process can be used effectively for prediction goals.

Impact of technology uptake on an Australian electricity distribution network

This paper presents simulation results for future electricity grids using an agent-based model developed with MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model). MODAM is introduced and its use demonstrated through four simulations based on a scenario that expects a rise of on-site renewable generators and electric vehicles (EV) usage. The simulations were run over many years, for two areas in Townsville, Australia, capturing variability in space of the technology uptake, and for two charging methods for EV, capturing people's behaviours and their impact on the time of the peak load. Impact analyses of these technologies were performed over the areas, down to the distribution transformer level, where greater variability of their contribution to the assets peak load was observed. The MODAM models can be used for different purposes such as impact of renewables on grid sizing, or on greenhouse gas emissions. The insights gained from using MODAM for technology assessment are discussed.

Retrieving trip information from a discrete detectors network : The case of Brisbane Bluetooth detectors

Automatic Vehicle Identification Systems are being increasingly used as a new source of travel information. As in the last decades these systems relied on expensive new technologies, few of them were scattered along a networks making thus Travel-Time and Average Speed estimation their main objectives. However, as their price dropped, the opportunity of building dense AVI networks arose, as in Brisbane where more than 250 Bluetooth detectors are now installed. As a consequence this technology represents an effective means to acquire accurate time dependant Origin Destination information. In order to obtain reliable estimations, however, a number of issues need to be addressed. Some of these problems stem from the structure of a network made out of isolated detectors itself while others are inherent of Bluetooth technology (overlapping detection area, missing detections,\...). The aim of this paper is threefold: First, after having presented the level of details that can be reached with a network of isolated detectors we present how we modelled Brisbane's network, keeping only the information valuable for the retrieval of trip information. Second, we give an overview of the issues inherent to the Bluetooth technology and we propose a method for retrieving the itineraries of the individual Bluetooth vehicles. Last, through a comparison with Brisbane Transport Strategic Model results, we highlight the opportunities and the limits of Bluetooth detectors networks. The aim of this paper is twofold. We first give a comprehensive overview of the aforementioned issues. Further, we propose a methodology that can be followed, in order to cleanse, correct and aggregate Bluetooth data. We postulate that the methods introduced by this paper are the first crucial steps that need to be followed in order to compute accurate Origin-Destination matrices in urban road networks.

Autonomous helicopter hover using an artificial neural network

Details the developments to date of an unmanned air vehicle (UAV) based on a standard size 60 model helicopter. The design goal is to have the helicopter achieve stable hover with the aid of an INS and stereo vision. The focus of the paper is on the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) that makes use of only the INS data to generate hover commands, which are used to directly manipulate the flight servos. Current results show that networks incorporating some form of recurrency (state history) offer little advantage over those without. At this stage, the ANN has partially maintained periods of hover even with misaligned sensors.

Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

The QUT Training Model for Peer Leader Capacity Building

QUT has enacted a university-wide Peer Program’s Strategy which aims to improve student success and graduate outcomes. A component of this strategy is a training model providing relevant, quality-assured and timely training for all students who take on leadership roles. The training model is designed to meet the needs of the growing scale and variety of peer programs, and to recognise the multiple roles and programs in which students may be involved during their peer leader journey. The model builds peer leader capacity by offering centralised, beginning and ongoing training modules, delivered by in-house providers, covering topics which prepare students to perform their role safely, inclusively, accountably and skilfully. The model also provides efficiencies by differentiating between ‘core competency' and ‘program-specific’ modules, thus avoiding training duplication across multiple programs, and enabling training to be individually and flexibly formatted to suit the specific and unique needs of each program.

Medical semantic similarity with a neural language model

Advances in neural network language models have demonstrated that these models can effectively learn representations of words meaning. In this paper, we explore a variation of neural language models that can learn on concepts taken from structured ontologies and extracted from free-text, rather than directly from terms in free-text. This model is employed for the task of measuring semantic similarity between medical concepts, a task that is central to a number of techniques in medical informatics and information retrieval. The model is built with two medical corpora (journal abstracts and patient records) and empirically validated on two ground-truth datasets of human-judged concept pairs assessed by medical professionals. Empirically, our approach correlates closely with expert human assessors ($\approx$ 0.9) and outperforms a number of state-of-the-art benchmarks for medical semantic similarity. The demonstrated superiority of this model for providing an effective semantic similarity measure is promising in that this may translate into effectiveness gains for techniques in medical information retrieval and medical informatics (e.g., query expansion and literature-based discovery).

Support for an auto-associative model of spoken cued recall: Evidence from fMRI

Cued recall and item recognition are considered the standard episodic memory retrieval tasks. However, only the neural correlates of the latter have been studied in detail with fMRI. Using an event-related fMRI experimental design that permits spoken responses, we tested hypotheses from an auto-associative model of cued recall and item recognition [Chappell, M., & Humphreys, M. S. (1994). An auto-associative neural network for sparse representations: Analysis and application to models of recognition and cued recall. Psychological Review, 101, 103-128]. In brief, the model assumes that cues elicit a network of phonological short term memory (STM) and semantic long term memory (LTM) representations distributed throughout the neocortex as patterns of sparse activations. This information is transferred to the hippocampus which converges upon the item closest to a stored pattern and outputs a response. Word pairs were learned from a study list, with one member of the pair serving as the cue at test. Unstudied words were also intermingled at test in order to provide an analogue of yes/no recognition tasks. Compared to incorrectly rejected studied items (misses) and correctly rejected (CR) unstudied items, correctly recalled items (hits) elicited increased responses in the left hippocampus and neocortical regions including the left inferior prefrontal cortex (LIPC), left mid lateral temporal cortex and inferior parietal cortex, consistent with predictions from the model. This network was very similar to that observed in yes/no recognition studies, supporting proposals that cued recall and item recognition involve common rather than separate mechanisms.

Brain network efficiency and topology depend on the fiber tracking method: 11 tractography algorithms compared in 536 subjects

As connectivity analyses become more popular, claims are often made about how the brain's anatomical networks depend on age, sex, or disease. It is unclear how results depend on tractography methods used to compute fiber networks. We applied 11 tractography methods to high angular resolution diffusion images of the brain (4-Tesla 105-gradient HARDI) from 536 healthy young adults. We parcellated 70 cortical regions, yielding 70×70 connectivity matrices, encoding fiber density. We computed popular graph theory metrics, including network efficiency, and characteristic path lengths. Both metrics were robust to the number of spherical harmonics used to model diffusion (4th-8th order). Age effects were detected only for networks computed with the probabilistic Hough transform method, which excludes smaller fibers. Sex and total brain volume affected networks measured with deterministic, tensor-based fiber tracking but not with the Hough method. Each tractography method includes different fibers, which affects inferences made about the reconstructed networks.