Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Do strategy choices matter for nascent firms? A study on effectuation and causation impacts on new ventures outcomes

Principal Topic : Nascent entrepreneurship has drawn the attention of scholars in the last few years (Davidsson, 2006, Wagner, 2004). However, most studies have asked why firms are created focussing on questions such as what are the characteristics (Delmar and Davidsson, 2000) and motivations (Carter, Gartner, Shaver & Reynolds, 2004) of nascent entrepreneurs, or what are the success factors in venture creation (Davidsson & Honig; 2003; Delmar and Shane, 2004). In contrast, the question of how companies emerge is still in its infancy. On a theoretical side, effectuation, developed by Sarasvathy (2001) offers one view of the strategies that may be at work during the venture creation process. Causation, the theorized inverse to effectuation, may be described as a rational reasoning method to create a company. After a comprehensive market analysis to discover opportunities, the entrepreneur will select the alternative with the higher expected return and implement it through the use of a business plan. In contrast, effectuation suggests that the future entrepreneur will develop her new venture in a more iterative way by selecting possibilities through flexibility and interaction with the market, affordability of loss of resources and time invested, development of pre-commitments and alliances from stakeholders. Another contrasting point is that causation is ''goal driven'' while an effectual approach is ''mean driven'' (Sarasvathy, 2001) One of the predictions of effectuation theory is effectuation is more likely to be used by entrepreneurs early in the venture creation process (Sarasvathy, 2001). However, this temporal aspect and the impact of the effectuation strategy on the venture outcomes has so far not been systematically and empirically tested on large samples. The reason behind this research gap is twofold. Firstly, few studies collect longitudinal data on emerging ventures at an early enough stage of development to avoid severe survivor bias. Second, the studies that collect such data have not included validated measures of effectuation. The research we are conducting attempts to partially fill this gap by combining an empirical investigation on a large sample of nascent and young firms with the effectuation/causation continuum as a basis (Sarasvathy, 2001). The objectives are to understand the strategies used by the firms during the creation process and measure their impacts on the firm outcomes. Methodology/Key Propositions : This study draws its data from the first wave of the CAUSEE project where 28,383 Australian households were randomly contacted by phone using a specific methodology to capture emerging firms (Davidsson, Steffens, Gordon, Reynolds, 2008). This screening led to the identification of 594 nascent ventures (i.e., firms that are not operating yet) and 514 young firms (i.e., firms that have started operating from 2004) that were willing to participate in the study. Comprehensive phone interviews were conducted with these 1108 ventures. In a likewise comprehensive follow-up 12 months later, 80% of the eligible cases completed the interview. The questionnaire contains specific sections designed to distinguish effectual and causal processes, innovation, gestation activities, business idea changes and ventures outcomes. The effectuation questions are based on the components of effectuation strategy as described by Sarasvathy (2001) namely: flexibility, affordable loss and pre-commitment from stakeholders. Results from two rounds of pre-testing informed the design of the instrument included in the main survey. The first two waves of data have will be used to test and compare the use of effectuation in the venture creation process. To increase the robustness of the results, temporal use of effectuation will be tested both directly and indirectly. 1. By comparing the use of effectuation in nascent and young firms from wave 1 to 2, we will be able to find out how effectuation is affected by time over a 12-month duration and if the stage of venture development has an impact on its use. 2. By comparing nascent ventures early in the creation process versus nascent ventures late in the creation process. Early versus late can be determined with the help of time-stamped gestation activity questions included in the survey. This will help us to determine the change on a small time scale during the creation phase of the venture. 3. By comparing nascent firms to young (already operational) firms. 4. By comparing young firms becoming operational in 2006 with those first becoming operational in 2004. Results and Implications : Wave 1 and 2 data have been completed and wave 2 is currently being checked and 'cleaned'. Analysis work will commence in September, 2009. This paper is expected to contribute to the body of knowledge on effectuation by measuring quantitatively its use and impact on nascent and young firms activities at different stages of their development. In addition, this study will also increase the understanding of the venture creation process by comparing over time nascent and young firms from a large sample of randomly selected ventures. We acknowledge the results from this study will be preliminary and will have to be interpreted with caution as the changes identified may be due to several factors and may not only be attributed to the use/not use of effectuation. Meanwhile, we believe that this study is important to the field of entrepreneurship as it provides some much needed insights on the processes used by nascent and young firms during their creation and early operating stages.

Do board contacts matter? : an analysis of the relationship between boards of directors’ ties and the performance of Australia’s largest companies.

Boards of directors are thought to provide access to a wealth of knowledge and resources for the companies they serve, and are considered important to corporate governance. Under the Resource Based View (RBV) of the firm (Wernerfelt, 1984) boards are viewed as a strategic resource available to firms. As a consequence there has been a significant research effort aimed at establishing a link between board attributes and company performance. In this thesis I explore and extend the study of interlocking directorships (Mizruchi, 1996; Scott 1991a) by examining the links between directors’ opportunity networks and firm performance. Specifically, I use resource dependence theory (Pfeffer & Salancik, 1978) and social capital theory (Burt, 1980b; Coleman, 1988) as the basis for a new measure of a board’s opportunity network. I contend that both directors’ formal company ties and their social ties determine a director’s opportunity network through which they are able to access and mobilise resources for their firms. This approach is based on recent studies that suggest the measurement of interlocks at the director level, rather than at the firm level, may be a more reliable indicator of this phenomenon. This research uses publicly available data drawn from Australia’s top-105 listed companies and their directors in 1999. I employ Social Network Analysis (SNA) (Scott, 1991b) using the UCINET software to analyse the individual director’s formal and social networks. SNA is used to measure a the number of ties a director has to other directors in the top-105 company director network at both one and two degrees of separation, that is, direct ties and indirect (or ‘friend of a friend’) ties. These individual measures of director connectedness are aggregated to produce a board-level network metric for comparison with measures of a firm’s performance using multiple regression analysis. Performance is measured with accounting-based and market-based measures. Findings indicate that better-connected boards are associated with higher market-based company performance (measured by Tobin’s q). However, weaker and mostly unreliable associations were found for accounting-based performance measure ROA. Furthermore, formal (or corporate) network ties are a stronger predictor of market performance than total network ties (comprising social and corporate ties). Similarly, strong ties (connectedness at degree-1) are better predictors of performance than weak ties (connectedness at degree-2). My research makes four contributions to the literature on director interlocks. First, it extends a new way of measuring a board’s opportunity network based on the director rather than the company as the unit of interlock. Second, it establishes evidence of a relationship between market-based measures of firm performance and the connectedness of that firm’s board. Third, it establishes that director’s formal corporate ties matter more to market-based firm performance than their social ties. Fourth, it establishes that director’s strong direct ties are more important to market-based performance than weak ties. The thesis concludes with implications for research and practice, including a more speculative interpretation of these results. In particular, I raise the possibility of reverse causality – that is networked directors seek to join high-performing companies. Thus, the relationship may be a result of symbolic action by companies seeking to increase the legitimacy of their firms rather than a reflection of the social capital available to the companies. This is an important consideration worthy of future investigation.

Demonstration of image compression in a low-bandwidth wireless camera network

This paper presents an overview of our demonstration of a low-bandwidth, wireless camera network where image compression is undertaken at each node. We briefly introduce the Fleck hardware platform we have developed as well as describe the image compression algorithm which runs on individual nodes. The demo will show real-time image data coming back to base as individual camera nodes are added to the network. Copyright 2007 ACM.

Real-time image streaming over a low-bandwidth wireless camera network

In this paper we describe the recent development of a low-bandwidth wireless camera sensor network. We propose a simple, yet effective, network architecture which allows multiple cameras to be connected to the network and synchronize their communication schedules. Image compression of greater than 90% is performed at each node running on a local DSP coprocessor, resulting in nodes using 1/8th the energy compared to streaming uncompressed images. We briefly introduce the Fleck wireless node and the DSP/camera sensor, and then outline the network architecture and compression algorithm. The system is able to stream color QVGA images over the network to a base station at up to 2 frames per second. © 2007 IEEE.

Autonomous deployment and repair of a sensor network using an unmanned aerial vehicle

We describe a sensor network deployment method using autonomous flying robots. Such networks are suitable for tasks such as large-scale environmental monitoring or for command and control in emergency situations. We describe in detail the algorithms used for deployment and for measuring network connectivity and provide experimental data we collected from field trials. A particular focus is on determining gaps in connectivity of the deployed network and generating a plan for a second, repair, pass to complete the connectivity. This project is the result of a collaboration between three robotics labs (CSIRO, USC, and Dartmouth.).

Automatic calibration of a spiking head-direction network for representing robot orientation

Calibration of movement tracking systems is a difficult problem faced by both animals and robots. The ability to continuously calibrate changing systems is essential for animals as they grow or are injured, and highly desirable for robot control or mapping systems due to the possibility of component wear, modification, damage and their deployment on varied robotic platforms. In this paper we use inspiration from the animal head direction tracking system to implement a self-calibrating, neurally-based robot orientation tracking system. Using real robot data we demonstrate how the system can remove tracking drift and learn to consistently track rotation over a large range of velocities. The neural tracking system provides the first steps towards a fully neural SLAM system with improved practical applicability through selftuning and adaptation.

Single camera vision-only SLAM on a suburban road network

Simultaneous Localization And Mapping (SLAM) is one of the major challenges in mobile robotics. Probabilistic techniques using high-end range finding devices are well established in the field, but recent work has investigated vision only approaches. This paper presents a method for generating approximate rotational and translation velocity information from a single vehicle-mounted consumer camera, without the computationally expensive process of tracking landmarks. The method is tested by employing it to provide the odometric and visual information for the RatSLAM system while mapping a complex suburban road network. RatSLAM generates a coherent map of the environment during an 18 km long trip through suburban traffic at speeds of up to 60 km/hr. This result demonstrates the potential of ground based vision-only SLAM using low cost sensing and computational hardware.

Network jamming : distributed performance using generative music

Generative music systems can be performed by manipulating the values of their algorithmic parameters, and their semi-autonomous nature provides an opportunity for coordinated interaction amongst a network of systems, a practice we call Network Jamming. This paper outlines the characteristics of this networked performance practice and discusses the types of mediated musical relationships and ensemble configurations that can arise. We have developed and tested the jam2jam network jamming software over recent years. We describe this system, draw from our experiences with it, and use it to illustrate some characteristics of Network Jamming.

The 4th International Network of Indigenous Health Knowledge and Development Conference

The International Network of Indigenous Health Knowledge and Development (INIHKD) Conference was held from Monday 24 May to Friday 28 May 2010 at Kiana Lodge, Port Madison Indian Reservation, Suquamish Nation, Washington State, United States of America. The overall theme for the 4th Biennial Conference was ‘Knowing Our Roots: Indigenous Medicines, Health Knowledges and Best Practices’. This article details the experience of participants who were at the INIHKD Conference. It concludes with an encouragement to people to attend the 5th INIHKD Conference in Australia in 2012.

The international regulation of transnational mergers

Transnational mergers are mergers involving firms operating in more than one jurisdiction, or which occur in one jurisdiction but have an impact on competition in another. Being of this nature, they have the potential to raise competition law concerns in more than one jurisdiction. When they do, the transaction costs of the merger to the firms involved, and the competition law authorities, are likely to increase significantly and, even where the merger is allowed to proceed, delays are likely to occur in reaping the benefits of the merger. Ultimately, these costs are borne by consumers. This thesis will identify the nature and source of regulatory costs associated with transnational merger review and identify and evaluate possible mechanisms by which these costs might be reduced. It will conclude that there is no single panacea for transnational merger regulation, but that a multi-faceted approach, including the adoption of common filing forms, agreement on filing and review deadlines and continuing efforts toward increasing international cooperation in merger enforcement, is needed to reduce regulatory costs and more successfully improve the welfare outcomes to which merger regulation is directed.

Audit of the Care of the Dying in a Network of Hospitals and Institutions in Queensland

Background: Most Australians die in institutions and there is evidence to suggest that the care of these patients is not always optimal. Care pathways for the dying have been designed to transfer benchmarked hospice care to other settings (e.g. acute hospitals and residential age-care facilities) by defining goals of best care, providing guidelines to provide that care and documenting outcome. Method: A retrospective audit was undertaken across a network of health-care institutions in Queensland. The 18 goals considered essential for the care of the dying within the Liverpool Care Pathway were taken as a benchmark. Documentation of achievement of each of these goals was sought. Results: The notes of 160 patients who had died in eight institutions (four hospitals, three hospices, one nursing home) were reviewed. Several areas for improvement were identified, particularly in those goals relating to communication, resuscitation orders and care after death. Few units documented the provision of written information to families. Most patients were prescribed medications in anticipation of pain and agitation but less were prescribed drugs for other common symptoms in the dying. Most of the goals were achieved in a higher percentage of cases in hospice units. Marked differences in practice were noted between different institutions. Conclusion: The audit identified several aspects in the care of the terminally ill that could be improved. End-stage pathways may provide a model for improving the care of patients dying in hospitals and institutions in Australia.

Springbrook : Challenges in developing a long-term, rainforest wireless sensor network

We describe the design, development and learnings from the first phase of a rainforest ecological sensor network at Springbrook - part of a World Heritage precinct in South East Queensland. This first phase is part of a major initiative to develop the capability to provide reliable, long-term monitoring of rainforest ecosystems. We focus in particular on our analysis around energy and communication challenges which need to be solved to allow for reliable, long-term deployments in these types of environments.