Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Rayleigh theory of ultrasound scattering applied to liquid-filled contrast nanoparticles

We present a novel modified theory based upon Rayleigh scattering of ultrasound from composite nanoparticles with a liquid core and solid shell. We derive closed form solutions to the scattering cross-section and have applied this model to an ultrasound contrast agent consisting of a liquid-filled core (perfluorooctyl bromide, PFOB) encapsulated by a polymer shell (poly-caprolactone, PCL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to predict the dependence of the scattering cross-section upon material and dimensional parameters. A rapid increase in the scattering cross-section was achieved by increasing the compressibility of the core, validating the incorporation of high compressibility PFOB; the compressibility of the shell had little impact on the overall scattering cross-section although a more compressible shell is desirable. Changes in the density of the shell and the core result in predicted local minima in the scattering cross-section, approximately corresponding to the PFOB-PCL contrast agent considered; hence, incorporation of a lower shell density could potentially significantly improve the scattering cross-section. A 50% reduction in shell thickness relative to external radius increased the predicted scattering cross-section by 50%. Although it has often been considered that the shell has a negative effect on the echogeneity due to its low compressibility, we have shown that it can potentially play an important role in the echogeneity of the contrast agent. The challenge for the future is to identify suitable shell and core materials that meet the predicted characteristics in order to achieve optimal echogenity.

A two-Dimensional finite volume method for variable density flow and solute transport through saturated-unsaturated media

Extensive groundwater withdrawal has resulted in a severe seawater intrusion problem in the Gooburrum aquifers at Bundaberg, Queensland, Australia. Better management strategies can be implemented by understanding the seawater intrusion processes in those aquifers. To study the seawater intrusion process in the region, a two-dimensional density-dependent, saturated and unsaturated flow and transport computational model is used. The model consists of a coupled system of two non-linear partial differential equations. The first equation describes the flow of a variable-density fluid, and the second equation describes the transport of dissolved salt. A two-dimensional control volume finite element model is developed for simulating the seawater intrusion into the heterogeneous aquifer system at Gooburrum. The simulation results provide a realistic mechanism by which to study the convoluted transport phenomena evolving in this complex heterogeneous coastal aquifer.

Sustainable urban and transport development for transportation disadvantaged : a review

Around the world, particularly in North America and Australia, urban sprawl combined with low density suburban development has caused serious accessibility and mobility problems, especially for those who do not own a motor vehicle or have access to public transportation services. Sustainable urban and transportation development is seen crucial in solving transportation disadvantage problems in urban settlements. However, current urban and transportation models have not been adequately addressed unsustainable urban transportation problems that transportation disadvantaged groups overwhelmingly encounter, and the negative impacts on the disadvantaged have not been effectively considered. Transportation disadvantaged is a multi-dimensional problem that combines demographic, spatial and transportation service dimensions. Nevertheless, most transportation models focusing on transportation disadvantage only employ demographic and transportation service dimensions and do not take spatial dimension into account. This paper aims to investigate the link between sustainable urban and transportation development and spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. The paper, for that purpose, provides a thorough review of the literature and identifies a set of urban, development and policy characteristics to define spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. This paper presents an overview of these urban, development and policy characteristics that have significant relationships with sustainable urban and transportation development and travel inability, which are also useful in determining transportation disadvantaged populations.

Three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded structures in the guanidinium salts of the monocyclic dicarboxylic acids rac-trans-cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid (2:1, anhydrous), isophthalic acid (1:1, monohydrate) and terephthalic acid (2:1, trihydrate).

The structures of bis(guanidinium)rac-trans-cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate, 2(CH6N3+) C8H10O4- (I), guanidinium 3-carboxybenzoate monohydrate CH6N3+ C8H5O4- . H2O (II) and bis(guanidinium) benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate trihydrate, 2(CH6N3+) C8H4O4^2- . 3H2O (III) have been determined and the hydrogen bonding in each examined. All three compounds form three-dimensional hydrogen-bonded framework structures. In anhydrous (I), both guanidinium cations give classic cyclic R2/2(8) N--H...O,O'(carboxyl) and asymmetric cyclic R1/2(6) hydrogen-bonding interactions while one cation gives an unusual enlarged cyclic interaction with O acceptors of separate ortho-related carboxyl groups [graph set R2/2(11)]. Cations and anions also associate across inversion centres giving cyclic R2/4(8) motifs. In the 1:1 guanidinium salt (II), the cation gives two separate cyclic R1/2(6) interactions, one with a carboxyl O-acceptor, the other with the water molecule of solvation. The structure is unusual in that both carboxyl groups give short inter-anion O...H...O contacts, one across a crystallographic inversion centre [2.483(2)\%A], the other about a two-fold axis of rotation [2.462(2)\%A] with a half-occupancy hydrogen delocalized on the symmetry element in each. The water molecule links the cation--anion ribbon structures into a three-dimensional framework. In (III), the repeating molecular unit comprises a benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate dianion which lies across a crystallographic inversion centre, two guanidinium cations and two water molecules of solvation (each set related by two-fold rotational symmetry), and a single water molecule which lies on a two-fold axis. Each guanidinium cation gives three types of cyclic interactions with the dianions: one R^1^~2~(6), the others R2/3(8) and R3/3(10) (both of these involving the water molecules), giving a three-dimensional structure through bridges down the b cell direction. The water molecule at the general site also forms an unusual cyclic R2/2(4) homodimeric association across an inversion centre [O--H...O, 2.875(2)\%A]. The work described here provides further examples of the common cyclic guanidinium cation...carboxylate anion hydrogen-bonding associations as well as featuring other less common cyclic motifs.

Forecasting negative effects of monotony and sensation seeking on performance during a vigilance task

The driving task requires sustained attention during prolonged periods, and can be performed in highly predictable or repetitive environments. Such conditions could create hypovigilance and impair performance towards critical events. Identifying such impairment in monotonous conditions has been a major subject of research, but no research to date has attempted to predict it in real-time. This pilot study aims to show that performance decrements due to monotonous tasks can be predicted through mathematical modelling taking into account sensation seeking levels. A short vigilance task sensitive to short periods of lapses of vigilance called Sustained Attention to Response Task is used to assess participants‟ performance. The framework for prediction developed on this task could be extended to a monotonous driving task. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed to predict participants‟ lapses in alertness. Driver‟s vigilance evolution is modelled as a hidden state and is correlated to a surrogate measure: the participant‟s reactions time. This experiment shows that the monotony of the task can lead to an important decline in performance in less than five minutes. This impairment can be predicted four minutes in advance with an 86% accuracy using HMMs. This experiment showed that mathematical models such as HMM can efficiently predict hypovigilance through surrogate measures. The presented model could result in the development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance and warn the driver accordingly, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

Response of tall buildings with symmetric setbacks under blast loading

This study explores three-dimensional nonlineardynamic responses of typical tall buildings with and without setbacks under blast loading. These 20 storey reinforced concrete buildings have been designed for normal (dead, live and wind)loads. The influence of the setbacks on the lateral load response due to blasts in terms of peak deflections, accelerations, inter-storey drift and bending moments at critical locations (including hinge formation) were investigated. Structural response predictions were performed with a commercially available three-dimensional finite element analysis programme using non-linear direct integration time history analyses. Results obtained for buildings with different setbacks were compared and conclusions made. The comparisons revealed that buildings have setbacks that protect the tower part above the setback level from blast loading show considerably better response in terms of peak displacement and interstorey drift, when compared to buildings without setbacks. Rotational accelerations were found to depend on the periods of the rotational modes. Abrupt changes in moments and shears are experienced near the levels of the setbacks. Typical twenty storey tall buildings with shear walls and frames that are designed for only normaln loads perform reasonably well, without catastrophic collapse, when subjected to a blast that is equivalent to 500 kg TNT at a standoff distance of 10 m.

Development of a 3-dimensional human skin equivalent wound model for investigating novel wound healing therapies

Numerous difficulties are associated with the conduct of preclinical studies related to skin and wound repair. Use of small animal models such as rodents is not optimal because of their physiological differences to human skin and mode of wound healing. Although pigs have previously been used because of their human-like mode of healing, the expense and logistics related to their use also renders them suboptimal. In view of this, alternatives are urgently required to advance the field. The experiments reported herein were aimed at developing and validating a simple, reproducible, three-dimensional ex vivo de-epidermised dermis human skin equivalent wound model for the preclinical evaluation of novel wound therapies. Having established that the human skin equivalent wound model does in fact “heal," we tested the effect of two novel wound healing therapies. We also examined the utility of the model for studies exploring the mechanisms underpinning these therapies. Taken together the data demonstrate that these new models will have wide-spread application for the generation of fundamental new information on wound healing processes and also hold potential in facilitating preclinical optimization of dosage, duration of therapies, and treatment strategies prior to clinical trials.

Sustainable urban infrastructure management : integration of urban computer modelling

Purpose - This paper seeks to examine the complex relationships between urban planning, infrastructure management, sustainable urban development, and to illustrate why there is an urgent need for local governments to develop a robust planning support system which integrates with advance urban computer modelling tools to facilitate better infrastructure management and improve knowledge sharing between the community, urban planners, engineers and decision makers. Design/methodology/approach - The methods used in this paper includes literature review and practical project case observations. Originality/value - This paper provides an insight of how the Brisbane's planning support system established by Brisbane City Council has significantly improved the effectiveness of urban planning, infrastructure management and community engagement through better knowledge management processes. Practical implications - This paper presents a practical framework for setting up a functional planning support system within local government. The integration of the Brisbane Urban Growth model, Virtual Brisbane and the Brisbane Economic Activity Monitoring (BEAM) database have proven initially successful to provide a dynamic platform to assist elected officials, planners and engineers to understand the limitations of the local environment, its urban systems and the planning implications on a city. With the Brisbane's planning support system, planners and decision makers are able to provide better planning outcomes, policy and infrastructure that adequately address the local needs and achieve sustainable spatial forms.

Years 2 to 6 students' ability to generalise : models, representations and theory for teaching and learning

Over the last three years, in our Early Algebra Thinking Project, we have been studying Years 3 to 5 students’ ability to generalise in a variety of situations, namely, compensation principles in computation, the balance principle in equivalence and equations, change and inverse change rules with function machines, and pattern rules with growing patterns. In these studies, we have attempted to involve a variety of models and representations and to build students’ abilities to switch between them (in line with the theories of Dreyfus, 1991, and Duval, 1999). The results have shown the negative effect of closure on generalisation in symbolic representations, the predominance of single variance generalisation over covariant generalisation in tabular representations, and the reduced ability to readily identify commonalities and relationships in enactive and iconic representations. This chapter uses the results to explore the interrelation between generalisation and verbal and visual comprehension of context. The studies evidence the importance of understanding and communicating aspects of representational forms which allowed commonalities to be seen across or between representations. Finally the chapter explores the implications of the studies for a theory that describes a growth in integration of models and representations that leads to generalisation.

Terrain following using wide field optic flow

Wall and terrain following is a challenging problem for small, fast, and fragile robot vehicles. This paper presents a robust algorithm based on wide field integration of optic flow. Solutions for two dimensional and three dimensional wall following is provided for vehicles with non-holonomic velocity constraints that ensure that the focus of expansion of the flow field is known. The potential of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated in a simulation environment.

Multi-objective four-dimensional vehicle motion planning in large dynamic environments

This paper presents Multi-Step A* (MSA*), a search algorithm based on A* for multi-objective 4D vehicle motion planning (three spatial and one time dimension). The research is principally motivated by the need for offline and online motion planning for autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). For UAVs operating in large, dynamic and uncertain 4D environments, the motion plan consists of a sequence of connected linear tracks (or trajectory segments). The track angle and velocity are important parameters that are often restricted by assumptions and grid geometry in conventional motion planners. Many existing planners also fail to incorporate multiple decision criteria and constraints such as wind, fuel, dynamic obstacles and the rules of the air. It is shown that MSA* finds a cost optimal solution using variable length, angle and velocity trajectory segments. These segments are approximated with a grid based cell sequence that provides an inherent tolerance to uncertainty. Computational efficiency is achieved by using variable successor operators to create a multi-resolution, memory efficient lattice sampling structure. Simulation studies on the UAV flight planning problem show that MSA* meets the time constraints of online replanning and finds paths of equivalent cost but in a quarter of the time (on average) of vector neighbourhood based A*.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Negative mood, implicit alcohol-related memory, and alcohol use in young adults: The moderating effect of alcohol expectancy

Objective Alcohol-related implicit (preconscious) cognitive processes are established and unique predictors of alcohol use, but most research in this area has focused on alcohol-related implicit cognition and anxiety. This study extends this work into the area of depressed mood by testing a cognitive model that combines traditional explicit (conscious and considered) beliefs, implicit alcohol-related memory associations (AMAs), and self-reported drinking behavior. Method Using a sample of 106 university students, depressed mood was manipulated using a musical mood induction procedure immediately prior to completion of implicit then explicit alcohol-related cognition measures. A bootstrapped two-group (weak/strong expectancies of negative affect and tension reduction) structural equation model was used to examine how mood changes and alcohol-related memory associations varied across groups. Results Expectancies of negative affect moderated the association of depressed mood and AMAs, but there was no such association for tension reduction expectancy. Conclusion Subtle mood changes may unconsciously trigger alcohol-related memories in vulnerable individuals. Results have implications for addressing subtle fluctuations in depressed mood among young adults at risk of alcohol problems.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.